<p>截至目前，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -5.07%) 的股价年初至今下跌了 20%，在 2025 年开局不佳，尽管其芯片业务依然表现强劲。市场是否在预测生成性人工智能（AI）热潮的结束？让我们深入探讨一下未来九个月可能会给行业领导者带来什么。</p>
<h2>第四季度财报表现尚可</h2>
<p>当一家公司的股票开始下跌时，很容易将其归咎于运营表现不佳。但英伟达并非如此。第四季度财报显示，该公司依然表现强劲。收入同比飙升 78%，达到创纪录的 393 亿美元，这得益于其数据中心业务的强劲表现，该业务为运行和训练大型语言模型（LLMs）制造先进的 AI 芯片。</p>
<p>虽然英伟达最初是一家游戏芯片设计公司，但昂贵的数据中心硬件已成为其主要收入来源。其最新的 AI 芯片 Blackwell，每个单元的估计成本高达 3 万到 5 万美元。但这些新产品在功率和效率方面相比前代产品有显著提升，可能使客户在使用时节省成本。根据首席执行官黄仁勋的说法，需求 “疯狂”。</p>
<p>尽管如此，情况并非一帆风顺。英伟达在第四季度的毛利率下降了三个百分点（降至 73%），但这可能是由于推出新 Blackwell 芯片时面临的暂时挑战。管理层预计这一趋势将在第一季度继续，毛利率将降至 71%，因为生产正在加速。</p>
<h2>市场并不买账</h2>
<p>截至撰写时，英伟达的股价自 2 月 26 日发布财报以来下跌了 14%。这一下跌表明，尽管公司增长率高且 Blackwell 芯片成功推出，市场对其并不太满意。有些人可能将此归咎于毛利率下降。然而，更大的挑战可能来自长期需求。</p>
<p>在 2 月份，微软震惊了科技界，取消了在美国的一些数据中心租约。这家软件巨头被认为是英伟达的主要客户之一，减少其数据中心容量可能表明其希望降低对该行业的依赖。</p>
<p>虽然微软可能不会放弃 AI，但其首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉暗示，这项技术尚未创造出太多有意义的价值。如果行业领导者公开表示如此，其他英伟达客户（如 <strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>）可能在背后也有同样的感觉。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA1MTEvZXhjaXRlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29rcy1hdC1maW5hbmNpYWwtY2hhcnRzLW9uLWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA1MTEvZXhjaXRlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29rcy1hdC1maW5hbmNpYWwtY2hhcnRzLW9uLWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>另一个主要英伟达客户 OpenAI 发出的进一步警报。上个月，这家生成性 AI 初创公司与 <strong>台积电</strong> 达成协议，设计自己的定制芯片，以减少对第三方供应商的依赖。定制芯片是为特定工作负载设计的，因此它们的组件更少，成本更低，效率更高，相比之下，英伟达通常提供的通用 GPU 则显得不够高效。</p>
<p>如果主要客户缩减其 AI 投资并转向定制芯片，英伟达的增长潜力可能会受到严重削弱。</p>
<h2>英伟达的未来如何？</h2>
<p>英伟达的市值为 2.6 万亿美元，已经是一家巨头公司。未来的上行空间看起来有限，尤其是随着投资者对毛利率下降和潜在需求减少等挑战的关注加剧。尽管如此，股价在 2025 年也不太可能崩溃。</p>
<p>以仅 25.5 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）计算，英伟达的股价仅略高于 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 的 25 的估计，使其相对便宜，降低了下行风险。除非宏观经济条件严重恶化，例如经济衰退，否则该股今年可能会保持平稳。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票今年迄今已下跌 20%，尽管其第四季度财报显示收入增长 78%，达到 393 亿美元，这主要得益于其人工智能芯片业务。然而，毛利率下降和潜在需求减弱引发了担忧，尤其是在微软减少数据中心租赁和 OpenAI 宣布定制芯片计划之后。英伟达的市值为 2.6 万亿美元，未来增长似乎有限，但其股票仍相对便宜，前瞻市盈率为 25.5，表明除非宏观经济条件恶化，否则公司将保持稳定</p>

<p>With shares down 20% year to date, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -5.07%) has been off to a bad start in 2025, even though its chip business continues to fire on all cylinders. Is the market predicting an end to the generative artificial intelligence (AI) hype cycle? Let's dig deeper to determine what the next nine months might have in store for the industry's leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA -5.07%) 的股价年初至今下跌了 20%，在 2025 年开局不佳，尽管其芯片业务依然表现强劲。市场是否在预测生成性人工智能（AI）热潮的结束？让我们深入探讨一下未来九个月可能会给行业领导者带来什么。</p>
</div><h2>Fourth-quarter earnings were not bad</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第四季度财报表现尚可</h2>
</div><p>When a company's stock starts falling, it's easy to blame poor operational performance. But that hasn't been the case for Nvidia. Fourth-quarter earnings show a business that is still firing on all cylinders. Revenue soared 78% from a year ago to a quarterly record of $39.3 billion, driven by strength in the company's data center segment, where it makes advanced AI chips for running and training large language models (LLMs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当一家公司的股票开始下跌时，很容易将其归咎于运营表现不佳。但英伟达并非如此。第四季度财报显示，该公司依然表现强劲。收入同比飙升 78%，达到创纪录的 393 亿美元，这得益于其数据中心业务的强劲表现，该业务为运行和训练大型语言模型（LLMs）制造先进的 AI 芯片。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia started as a gaming chip designer, expensive data center hardware has become its bread and butter. Its latest AI chip, Blackwell, is estimated to cost a whopping $30,000 to $50,000 per unit. But these new products boast dramatic improvements in power and efficiency compared to their predecessors, potentially allowing clients to save money using them. According to CEO Jensen Huang, demand is &#34;insane.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然英伟达最初是一家游戏芯片设计公司，但昂贵的数据中心硬件已成为其主要收入来源。其最新的 AI 芯片 Blackwell，每个单元的估计成本高达 3 万到 5 万美元。但这些新产品在功率和效率方面相比前代产品有显著提升，可能使客户在使用时节省成本。根据首席执行官黄仁勋的说法，需求 “疯狂”。</p>
</div><p>That said, everything isn't peaches and cream. Nvidia experienced a three-point drop in fourth-quarter gross margins (to 73%), but that was likely because of temporary challenges associated with the rollout of its new Blackwell chips. Management expects the trend to continue in the first quarter, with gross margins dropping to 71% as it ramps up production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，情况并非一帆风顺。英伟达在第四季度的毛利率下降了三个百分点（降至 73%），但这可能是由于推出新 Blackwell 芯片时面临的暂时挑战。管理层预计这一趋势将在第一季度继续，毛利率将降至 71%，因为生产正在加速。</p>
</div><h2>The market isn't impressed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市场并不买账</h2>
</div><p>At the time of writing, Nvidia's shares are down 14% from the release of earnings on Feb. 26. This dip suggests the market isn't very impressed with the company despite its high growth rate and the successful rollout of its Blackwell chips. Some might blame this on the falling gross margins. However, the bigger challenge may come from long-term demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，英伟达的股价自 2 月 26 日发布财报以来下跌了 14%。这一下跌表明，尽管公司增长率高且 Blackwell 芯片成功推出，市场对其并不太满意。有些人可能将此归咎于毛利率下降。然而，更大的挑战可能来自长期需求。</p>
</div><p>In February, Microsoft shocked the tech world when it scrapped some leases for data centers in the U.S. The software giant is believed to be one of Nvidia's top consumers, and a reduction in its data center capacity could indicate a desire to reduce its exposure to the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月份，微软震惊了科技界，取消了在美国的一些数据中心租约。这家软件巨头被认为是英伟达的主要客户之一，减少其数据中心容量可能表明其希望降低对该行业的依赖。</p>
</div><p>While Microsoft probably won't give up on AI, its CEO, Satya Nadella, suggests the technology isn't creating much meaningful value yet. If one of the industry leaders says this openly, other Nvidia clients (such as <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>) may feel the same way behind the scenes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然微软可能不会放弃 AI，但其首席执行官萨提亚·纳德拉暗示，这项技术尚未创造出太多有意义的价值。如果行业领导者公开表示如此，其他英伟达客户（如 <strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>）可能在背后也有同样的感觉。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA1MTEvZXhjaXRlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29rcy1hdC1maW5hbmNpYWwtY2hhcnRzLW9uLWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F810511%2Fexcited-investor-looks-at-financial-charts-on-computer.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Further alarm bells are coming from another major Nvidia client, OpenAI. Last month, the generative AI start-up finalized a design with <strong>TSMC</strong> to make its own custom chips to reduce its reliance on third-party suppliers. Custom chips are designed for specialized workloads, so they have fewer unnecessary components, making them cheaper and more efficient compared to the one-size-fits-all GPUs typically provided by Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个主要英伟达客户 OpenAI 发出的进一步警报。上个月，这家生成性 AI 初创公司与 <strong>台积电</strong> 达成协议，设计自己的定制芯片，以减少对第三方供应商的依赖。定制芯片是为特定工作负载设计的，因此它们的组件更少，成本更低，效率更高，相比之下，英伟达通常提供的通用 GPU 则显得不够高效。</p>
</div><p>If major clients scale back their AI investments and turn to custom chips, Nvidia's growth potential could be seriously eroded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果主要客户缩减其 AI 投资并转向定制芯片，英伟达的增长潜力可能会受到严重削弱。</p>
</div><h2>What's next for Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的未来如何？</h2>
</div><p>With a market cap of $2.6 trillion, Nvidia is already a huge company. And future upside looks limited, especially as investors become more concerned with challenges like falling gross margins and potential demand erosion. That said, shares also look unlikely to crash in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达的市值为 2.6 万亿美元，已经是一家巨头公司。未来的上行空间看起来有限，尤其是随着投资者对毛利率下降和潜在需求减少等挑战的关注加剧。尽管如此，股价在 2025 年也不太可能崩溃。</p>
</div><p>With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of just 25.5, Nvidia shares are valued only slightly higher than the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> estimate of 25, making them quite affordable and reducing the risk of downside. The stock is likely to remain flat this year unless there is a severe deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, such as a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以仅 25.5 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）计算，英伟达的股价仅略高于 <strong>纳斯达克 100</strong> 的 25 的估计，使其相对便宜，降低了下行风险。除非宏观经济条件严重恶化，例如经济衰退，否则该股今年可能会保持平稳。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Stock Keep Dropping in 2025?

- Nvidia 股价年初至今下跌 20%，尽管其芯片业务表现强劲。  
- 第四季度营收同比增长 78%，达到 393 亿美元，主要受数据中心业务推动。  
- 但市场对未来需求感到担忧，部分客户如微软和 OpenAI 可能减少对 Nvidia 的依赖。  

英伟达的股票在 2025 年会继续下跌吗？