<p>如果你在一年前购买了 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.17%）的股票，现在的收益几乎达到了 14%。这略微超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 13% 回报，但只要能够超越市场，即使是微小的超越，也是值得庆祝的好日子。亚马逊网络服务（AWS），公司的云计算部门，表现尤其出色，其电子商务业务也同样强劲。在第四季度，强劲的增长终于使得该业务的规模超过了 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>。</p>
<p>亚马逊 2024 年的净销售额达到 6380 亿美元，规模庞大。但对于那些想知道一年后股票会如何的投资者，我认为其净销售额并不是最重要的财务指标。相反，我认为亚马逊的营业收入是更值得关注的财务指标。</p>
<p>公司的营业收入仅代表业务本身所产生的利润。为了提供一些背景，有些企业可以从与业务无关的事情中获得一些利润，例如投资。另一方面，有时一次性的税单或其他异常支出可能会削弱公司的净利润，即使其业务运营是盈利的。营业收入指标排除了这些非核心影响，这使其与其他利润指标有所区别。</p>
<p>对于亚马逊来说，长期图表非常有趣。一般来说，当公司的营业收入上升时，股价也会上升。反之亦然。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9cf508bb4875fb717482721db0331d6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9cf508bb4875fb717482721db0331d6.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>在 2 月 6 日，亚马逊报告了创纪录的营业收入为 686 亿美元。对我来说，这并不令人惊讶，亚马逊的股票在 2 月份也达到了每股超过 233 美元的创纪录价格。</p>
<p>基于亚马逊股票在营业收入上升时上涨、在营业收入下降时回落的前提，投资者可能需要为 2025 年的平淡回报做好心理准备。原因如下。</p>
<p>由于亚马逊的客户希望尝试和实施人工智能（AI）应用，AWS 的需求正在激增。为了满足这些客户的需求，管理层正在向该平台投入大量资金。事实上，计划在 2025 年投入超过 1000 亿美元的资本支出，其中大部分将用于 AWS，以应对与 AI 相关的需求。</p>
<p>随着 2025 年成为资本投资大幅增加的一年，亚马逊的管理层预计其营业收入将小幅下降。可能会减少不到 10 亿美元。但根据以往的模式，这表明亚马逊的股票在 2025 年也可能会有所回落。</p>
<h2>在你按下恐慌按钮之前...</h2>
<p>我刚刚做出了一个大胆的声明：亚马逊的股票可能在 2025 年下跌——或者说，表现平平。这听起来几乎像是在建议投资者卖出。但这并不是从这个预测中得出的正确结论。</p>
<p>首先，一年在股市中是一个短暂的时间。时间越短，投资者的情绪往往会超过商业基本面。在 2025 年，可能会发生许多（意想不到的）事情，这些事情可能会影响投资者的情绪，导致亚马逊的股票要么飙升，要么崩溃。但最终，企业的真实利好和利空可以预期会重新对股价产生影响。这就是为什么《傻瓜投资》的投资理念鼓励投资者持有他们购买的股票五年或更长时间——一年对于基本面来说实在是太短了。</p>
<p>其次，亚马逊的股东可能已经度过了最糟糕的时刻。毕竟，从营业收入的角度来看，该公司可能会报告其历史上第二盈利的年份。而截至目前，亚马逊的股票已经比 2025 年的高点下跌了 20%。与管理层目前预测的温和利润下降相比，这一回调是相当可观的。</p>
<p>第三，亚马逊的利润预计不会因为业务问题而下降。相反，利润预计会下降是因为管理层需要在业务上进行投资，以满足客户的强劲需求。这从长远来看是件好事。</p>
<p>事实上，亚马逊过去也经历过这样的时期。当它看到机会时，会放弃一些短期利润来投资于业务，以便在长期获利。这是公司应遵循的一个伟大原则，也是使亚马逊成为历史上表现最佳的股票之一的原因之一。</p>
<p>总之，如果亚马逊的股票在 2025 年表现不及标准普尔 500 指数，我不会感到丝毫惊讶。尽管如此，这一结果并不是必然的。此外，该公司似乎仍然处于良好的位置，以捕捉长期的消费者需求，特别是通过其 AWS 云计算平台。如果这一切发生，那么亚马逊的业务应该会在长期内蓬勃发展并增长，即使其在 2025 年的回报令人失望，也会最终将股票推向新高。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票在过去一年中上涨了近 14%，略微超过了标准普尔 500 指数。公司的营业收入是一个关键指标，2 月份报告的营业收入创下 68.6 亿美元的纪录。然而，由于在 AWS 方面的重大资本投资，预计到 2025 年营业收入将适度下降，这可能导致股票价格停滞或下滑。尽管如此，长期前景依然积极，因为亚马逊继续投资于增长机会，特别是在与人工智能相关的服务领域</p>

<p>If you bought shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN 1.17%) one year ago, you're up nearly 14% now. That's just barely beating the 13% return of the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, but anytime you can beat the market, even modestly, it's a good day. Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company's cloud-computing segment, is performing particularly well, as are its e-commerce operations. And in Q4, strong growth finally lifted the business past <strong>Walmart</strong> in size.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在一年前购买了 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 1.17%）的股票，现在的收益几乎达到了 14%。这略微超过了 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的 13% 回报，但只要能够超越市场，即使是微小的超越，也是值得庆祝的好日子。亚马逊网络服务（AWS），公司的云计算部门，表现尤其出色，其电子商务业务也同样强劲。在第四季度，强劲的增长终于使得该业务的规模超过了 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>。</p>
</div><p>With 2024 net sales of $638 billion, Amazon is massive. But for investors who are wondering where the stock will be in one year, I'd argue that its net sales aren't the most important financial metric to watch. To the contrary, I believe that Amazon's operating income is the better financial metric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊 2024 年的净销售额达到 6380 亿美元，规模庞大。但对于那些想知道一年后股票会如何的投资者，我认为其净销售额并不是最重要的财务指标。相反，我认为亚马逊的营业收入是更值得关注的财务指标。</p>
</div><p>A company's operating income represents only the profit produced by the business itself. For context, some businesses can earn some profits from things that aren't business related, such as investments. On the other side of the equation, sometimes a one-time tax bill or other unusual expense can sap the net profits of a company even when its business operations are profitable. The operating income metric leaves those non-core influences out, which is what sets it apart from other profit metrics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的营业收入仅代表业务本身所产生的利润。为了提供一些背景，有些企业可以从与业务无关的事情中获得一些利润，例如投资。另一方面，有时一次性的税单或其他异常支出可能会削弱公司的净利润，即使其业务运营是盈利的。营业收入指标排除了这些非核心影响，这使其与其他利润指标有所区别。</p>
</div><p>For Amazon, the long-term chart is fun to look at. As a general rule, when the company's operating income is climbing, the stock price is also climbing. The opposite is also true.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于亚马逊来说，长期图表非常有趣。一般来说，当公司的营业收入上升时，股价也会上升。反之亦然。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9cf508bb4875fb717482721db0331d6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c9cf508bb4875fb717482721db0331d6.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>On Feb. 6, Amazon reported record operating income of $68.6 billion. Unsurprisingly to me, Amazon stock also hit a record price of over $233 per share in February.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月 6 日，亚马逊报告了创纪录的营业收入为 686 亿美元。对我来说，这并不令人惊讶，亚马逊的股票在 2 月份也达到了每股超过 233 美元的创纪录价格。</p>
</div><p>Based on the premise that Amazon stock rises when operating income is rising and pulls back when operating income is falling, investors might need to brace themselves for ho-hum returns in 2025. Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于亚马逊股票在营业收入上升时上涨、在营业收入下降时回落的前提，投资者可能需要为 2025 年的平淡回报做好心理准备。原因如下。</p>
</div><p>Demand for AWS is surging because Amazon's customers want to experiment with and implement artificial intelligence (AI) applications. And in order to meet those clients' needs, management is investing a lot of money into the platform. In fact, it plans to spend over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, much of which will go toward AWS because of AI-related demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于亚马逊的客户希望尝试和实施人工智能（AI）应用，AWS 的需求正在激增。为了满足这些客户的需求，管理层正在向该平台投入大量资金。事实上，计划在 2025 年投入超过 1000 亿美元的资本支出，其中大部分将用于 AWS，以应对与 AI 相关的需求。</p>
</div><p>With 2025 shaping up to be a year of outsized capital investments, Amazon's management expects its operating income to fall modestly. It could be less than a $1 billion drop. But based on prior patterns, this suggests that Amazon stock will take a step back as well in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着 2025 年成为资本投资大幅增加的一年，亚马逊的管理层预计其营业收入将小幅下降。可能会减少不到 10 亿美元。但根据以往的模式，这表明亚马逊的股票在 2025 年也可能会有所回落。</p>
</div><h2>Before you hit the panic button...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在你按下恐慌按钮之前...</h2>
</div><p>I've just made a bold claim: Amazon stock might go down in 2025 -- or at best, will trend sideways. This could almost sound like I'm suggesting that investors sell. But here's why that's not the right takeaway from this prediction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我刚刚做出了一个大胆的声明：亚马逊的股票可能在 2025 年下跌——或者说，表现平平。这听起来几乎像是在建议投资者卖出。但这并不是从这个预测中得出的正确结论。</p>
</div><p>First, one year is a short time in the stock market. The shorter the period, the more investors' emotions tend to outweigh business fundamentals. Any number of (unexpected) things could happen in 2025 that could impact investors' emotions, sending Amazon stock either soaring or crashing. But eventually, the real positives and negatives of the business can be expected to reassert their influence over the share price. This is one reason why The Motley Fool's investing philosophy encourages investors to hold the stocks they buy for five years or longer -- one year is just too short of a time for the fundamentals to win out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，一年在股市中是一个短暂的时间。时间越短，投资者的情绪往往会超过商业基本面。在 2025 年，可能会发生许多（意想不到的）事情，这些事情可能会影响投资者的情绪，导致亚马逊的股票要么飙升，要么崩溃。但最终，企业的真实利好和利空可以预期会重新对股价产生影响。这就是为什么《傻瓜投资》的投资理念鼓励投资者持有他们购买的股票五年或更长时间——一年对于基本面来说实在是太短了。</p>
</div><p>Second, it's possible that the worst is already over for Amazon's shareholders. After all, the company will likely report its second most profitable year ever from an operating-income perspective. And as of this writing, Amazon stock is already down 20% from its highs in 2025. That pullback is substantial compared to the modest profit decline that management is currently forecasting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，亚马逊的股东可能已经度过了最糟糕的时刻。毕竟，从营业收入的角度来看，该公司可能会报告其历史上第二盈利的年份。而截至目前，亚马逊的股票已经比 2025 年的高点下跌了 20%。与管理层目前预测的温和利润下降相比，这一回调是相当可观的。</p>
</div><p>Third, Amazon's profits aren't expected to go down because of problems with its business. To the contrary, profits are expected to go down because management needs to invest in the business so that it can meet strong demand from customers. That's a really good thing long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三，亚马逊的利润预计不会因为业务问题而下降。相反，利润预计会下降是因为管理层需要在业务上进行投资，以满足客户的强劲需求。这从长远来看是件好事。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Amazon has had seasons like this in the past. When it sees an opportunity, it will forego some profits in the short term to invest in the business to profit in the long term. That's a great principle for a company to follow, and it's one of the things that has made Amazon one of the best-performing stocks of all time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，亚马逊过去也经历过这样的时期。当它看到机会时，会放弃一些短期利润来投资于业务，以便在长期获利。这是公司应遵循的一个伟大原则，也是使亚马逊成为历史上表现最佳的股票之一的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>In summary, if Amazon stock underperforms the S&amp;P 500 in 2025, I won't be the least bit surprised. That said, this outcome isn't a foregone conclusion. Moreover, the company still seems well positioned to capture long-term consumer demand, particularly with its AWS cloud-computing platform. If this happens, then Amazon's business should thrive and grow over the long term, which would eventually lift the stock to new highs even if its returns in 2025 are disappointing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，如果亚马逊的股票在 2025 年表现不及标准普尔 500 指数，我不会感到丝毫惊讶。尽管如此，这一结果并不是必然的。此外，该公司似乎仍然处于良好的位置，以捕捉长期的消费者需求，特别是通过其 AWS 云计算平台。如果这一切发生，那么亚马逊的业务应该会在长期内蓬勃发展并增长，即使其在 2025 年的回报令人失望，也会最终将股票推向新高。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 亚马逊股价过去一年上涨近 14%，略高于标普 500 的 13% 回报。  
- 预计 2025 年亚马逊的运营收入将小幅下降，可能导致股价回调。  
- 长期来看，亚马逊仍有潜力满足客户需求，特别是在云计算领域。  

一年后亚马逊的股票会达到什么水平？