<p>华尔街的情况迅速恶化，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -1.39%) 在周四与 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC -1.96%) 一起进入了调整区间。领先的市场指数在短短三周内下跌了 10.1%。尽管经历了两年多的牛市，股票估值飙升至高位，市场策略师在 2025 年初仍持有普遍乐观的展望。然而，经济数据的疲软和唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战使市场陷入混乱。投资者对衰退甚至滞涨的可能性越来越担忧。</p>
<p>鉴于这些新的经济逆风，自然会想知道：美联储会很快恢复降息以提供一些刺激吗？</p>
<h2>降息的可能性增加</h2>
<p>美联储在去年开始降息，此前其加息行动成功地显著降低了美国的通胀率。随着其关注点转向高利率对劳动力市场的影响，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在 9 月会议上将基准联邦基金利率下调了 50 个基点（即 0.5 个百分点），随后在 11 月会议上又下调了 25 个基点。</p>
<p>直到最近的数据表明，通胀开始重新加速，这给进一步降息设置了障碍：美联储不希望过度刺激经济而冒着重新点燃高通胀的风险。美联储在过去的会议纪要中也承认，它一直在等待特朗普的移民和关税政策如何影响经济。</p>
<p>许多人预计总统的政策会导致通胀，但到目前为止，经济数据疲软，包括劳动力市场恶化和修订后的国内生产总值预估下降，导致国债收益率下滑。交易员们对联邦基金利率的预期已经从预计今年零次或最多一次 25 个基点的降息，转变为（截至周三早上）预计今年将有三次降息。请记住，这些预测是不断变化的。</p>
<p>美联储不希望看到劳动力市场进一步恶化，但如果通胀没有继续下降到其偏好的 2% 目标，降息可能会很困难，因为失业率上升和高消费价格的组合可能导致经济增长缓慢，并形成滞涨的局面。这将使美联储陷入困境，因为如果降息，通胀可能加速，但如果加息，失业率可能会继续上升。投资者可能更害怕滞涨而不是温和的衰退，因为美联储可以通过降息来应对衰退条件，这通常对股票有利。</p>
<p>最近，投资者在新数据表明 2 月份通胀放缓超过预期后，得到了更积极的更新。消费者价格指数较上月上升 0.2%，同比上涨 2.8%，这两个数字均低于预期 0.1%。</p>
<h2>美联储会介入吗？</h2>
<p>FOMC 一直在监测经济数据以及特朗普政府实施的政策，我怀疑委员会在接下来的几个月里会保持当前的路径。</p>
<p>特朗普裁员、关闭项目和暂停先前批准的联邦支出，这给其任务增加了困难，这不仅影响联邦员工，还影响政府承包商及其他人，从而影响美国的就业市场。此外，特朗普在一系列关税问题上反复摇摆不定；投资者不知道这些关税是作为短期谈判策略使用，还是这些对进口商品的高税收会长期存在。特朗普显然超出了市场的预期，他和财政部长斯科特·贝森特警告称，美国人应该预期在他利用关税追求目标时会感受到一些痛苦。</p>
<p>我不预计美联储在即将到来的 3 月会议上会改变联邦基金利率，但在接下来的几个月中，可能会出现降息的条件。如果美国经济数据持续疲软，通胀减弱，滞涨担忧减退，那么在 FOMC 的 5 月或 6 月会议上，降息可能会成为议程。</p>

纳斯达克 OMX 交易所

<p>股市经历了显著的抛售，标准普尔 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数已进入调整区间。对潜在衰退的担忧以及特朗普总统贸易政策的影响加剧了投资者的焦虑。美联储最近已降息，但通胀仍然是一个问题。对进一步降息的预测有所增加，交易员们现在预计今年将有三次降息。美联储正在密切关注经济数据，如果条件改善，可能会考虑降息，但由于持续的贸易紧张局势和劳动力市场挑战，不确定性依然存在</p>

<p>Things have gone from bad to worse in a hurry on Wall Street, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -1.39%) joining the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC -1.96%) in correction territory on Thursday. The leading market index has fallen 10.1% in just three weeks' time. Despite a two-plus-year bull market that lifted stock valuations to lofty elevations, market strategists came into 2025 with generally positive outlooks. However, weakening economic data and President Donald Trump's trade war have thrown the market into disarray. Investors are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a recession or even stagflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街的情况迅速恶化，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>(^GSPC -1.39%) 在周四与 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>(^IXIC -1.96%) 一起进入了调整区间。领先的市场指数在短短三周内下跌了 10.1%。尽管经历了两年多的牛市，股票估值飙升至高位，市场策略师在 2025 年初仍持有普遍乐观的展望。然而，经济数据的疲软和唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战使市场陷入混乱。投资者对衰退甚至滞涨的可能性越来越担忧。</p>
</div><p>In light of all these fresh economic headwinds, it's natural to wonder: Will the Federal Reserve resume cutting interest rates soon to provide some stimulus?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于这些新的经济逆风，自然会想知道：美联储会很快恢复降息以提供一些刺激吗？</p>
</div><h2>The odds of cuts have increased</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息的可能性增加</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last year after its previous rate-hiking campaign succeeded in significantly reducing the U.S. inflation rate. With its concerns shifting toward the impact of higher interest rates on the labor market, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points (half of a percentage point) at its September meeting, followed by a cut of 25 basis points at its November meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储在去年开始降息，此前其加息行动成功地显著降低了美国的通胀率。随着其关注点转向高利率对劳动力市场的影响，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在 9 月会议上将基准联邦基金利率下调了 50 个基点（即 0.5 个百分点），随后在 11 月会议上又下调了 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Data up until very recently has shown that inflation was beginning to reaccelerate, which put an obstacle in the way of further rate cuts: The Fed doesn't want to overstimulate the economy and risk reigniting high inflation. The Fed also acknowledged in past meeting minutes that it has been waiting to see how Trump's policies related to immigration and tariffs end up affecting the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直到最近的数据表明，通胀开始重新加速，这给进一步降息设置了障碍：美联储不希望过度刺激经济而冒着重新点燃高通胀的风险。美联储在过去的会议纪要中也承认，它一直在等待特朗普的移民和关税政策如何影响经济。</p>
</div><p>Many expected that the president's policies would be inflationary, but so far, weaker economic data, including a worsening labor market and lower revised gross domestic product estimates, have sent Treasury yields downward. Traders betting on the outlook for the federal funds rate have gone from penciling in zero or maybe one 25-basis-point rate cut this year to expecting (on average) three such cuts this year (as of Wednesday morning). Keep in mind that these predictions are constantly changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人预计总统的政策会导致通胀，但到目前为止，经济数据疲软，包括劳动力市场恶化和修订后的国内生产总值预估下降，导致国债收益率下滑。交易员们对联邦基金利率的预期已经从预计今年零次或最多一次 25 个基点的降息，转变为（截至周三早上）预计今年将有三次降息。请记住，这些预测是不断变化的。</p>
</div><p>The Fed doesn't want to see further deterioration in the labor market, but it could be difficult to cut interest rates if inflation doesn't continue to fall toward its preferred 2% target because the combination of rising unemployment and high consumer prices can lead to slow economic growth and create a scenario known as stagflation. That would put the Fed in a bind because if it cuts rates, inflation could accelerate, but if it raises rates, unemployment is likely to keep climbing. Investors are likely to fear stagflation more than a modest recession because the Fed can fight back against recessionary conditions by cutting interest rates, which is often good for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储不希望看到劳动力市场进一步恶化，但如果通胀没有继续下降到其偏好的 2% 目标，降息可能会很困难，因为失业率上升和高消费价格的组合可能导致经济增长缓慢，并形成滞涨的局面。这将使美联储陷入困境，因为如果降息，通胀可能加速，但如果加息，失业率可能会继续上升。投资者可能更害怕滞涨而不是温和的衰退，因为美联储可以通过降息来应对衰退条件，这通常对股票有利。</p>
</div><p>Investors recently got a more positive update after new data showed that inflation slowed more than expected in February. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from the prior month and was up 2.8% year over year, with both numbers coming in 0.1% below estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，投资者在新数据表明 2 月份通胀放缓超过预期后，得到了更积极的更新。消费者价格指数较上月上升 0.2%，同比上涨 2.8%，这两个数字均低于预期 0.1%。</p>
</div><h2>Will the Fed step in?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美联储会介入吗？</h2>
</div><p>The FOMC has been monitoring economic data as well as the policies implemented by the Trump administration, and I suspect the committee will stay on its current path for the next few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FOMC 一直在监测经济数据以及特朗普政府实施的政策，我怀疑委员会在接下来的几个月里会保持当前的路径。</p>
</div><p>Adding difficulty to its task is that Trump is laying off federal workers, closing programs, and halting previously approved federal spending, all of which not only impacts federal employees but also government contractors and others in ways that will impact the U.S. job market. Furthermore, Trump has repeatedly gone back and forth on a host of tariffs; investors have no idea whether they are being used as a short-term negotiating tactic or whether those higher taxes on imported goods will be here to stay long-term. Trump has clearly gone further than the market expected, and he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have warned that Americans should expect to feel some pain as he uses tariffs to pursue his goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普裁员、关闭项目和暂停先前批准的联邦支出，这给其任务增加了困难，这不仅影响联邦员工，还影响政府承包商及其他人，从而影响美国的就业市场。此外，特朗普在一系列关税问题上反复摇摆不定；投资者不知道这些关税是作为短期谈判策略使用，还是这些对进口商品的高税收会长期存在。特朗普显然超出了市场的预期，他和财政部长斯科特·贝森特警告称，美国人应该预期在他利用关税追求目标时会感受到一些痛苦。</p>
</div><p>I don't expect the Fed to make a change to the federal funds rate at its upcoming March meeting, but it's possible that conditions that justify interest rate cuts will come into view over the next few months. If U.S. economic data remains weak, inflation softens, and stagflation concerns fade, an interest rate cut may be on the table at the FOMC's May or June meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不预计美联储在即将到来的 3 月会议上会改变联邦基金利率，但在接下来的几个月中，可能会出现降息的条件。如果美国经济数据持续疲软，通胀减弱，滞涨担忧减退，那么在 FOMC 的 5 月或 6 月会议上，降息可能会成为议程。</p>
</div>

Stock Market Sell-Off: Will the Federal Reserve Soon Step in With Interest Rate Cuts?

- 标普 500 指数和纳斯达克综合指数已进入调整区间，分别下跌 1.39% 和 1.96%。  
- 投资者担忧经济衰退和滞涨，预计美联储可能在未来几个月内降息。  
- 近期数据显示通胀放缓，可能为降息创造条件。  

股市抛售：美联储是否会很快采取降息措施进行干预？