<p>2025 年，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.86%) 的股票发生了迅速变化。就在几周前，我评估了在今年损失了五分之一的价值后，是否值得购买该股票。我得出的结论是，买入下跌的股票没有意义；相对于公司的基本面，估值似乎过高。但现在情况如何呢？截至目前，股票年初至今下跌了约 39%。面对更陡峭的下滑，现在是否是投资这个成长故事的好时机？</p>
<p>为了帮助我们考虑在如此急剧下跌后特斯拉股票是否值得购买，让我们来看看公司的近期表现、关键催化因素以及股票当前的估值。</p>
<h2>基本面恶化</h2>
<p>与股票当前估值相比，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.86%) 最近的业务表现令人失望。高利率环境在 2024 年对特斯拉的汽车需求造成了压力，影响了单位销售量和定价。这家电动汽车制造商的汽车收入在 2024 年同比下降了 6%，全年总收入仅增长了 1%。但情况更糟。该期间的净收入同比下降了 53%，自由现金流下降了 18%。</p>
<p>然而，并非所有特斯拉的业务板块都在遭受困扰。由于家庭和公用事业的能源存储产品销售大幅增长，特斯拉的能源发电和存储业务板块的收入同比增长了 67%。该板块在第四季度的增长速度甚至更快，达到了 113%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，这一板块的收入约占特斯拉总收入的 10%，与特斯拉的整体业务相比仍然较小。因此，汽车业务的疲软对整体业务造成了很大压力。</p>
<h2>关键催化因素</h2>
<p>然而，投资者不能仅仅通过特斯拉最近的业绩来定义这家公司。过去的高增长率的潜在回归（特斯拉曾经常以约 50% 的年增长率增长收入）不应被排除。公司有可能在低利率环境或新产品和服务的帮助下加快增长速度。</p>
<p>由于利率环境不在特斯拉的控制之中，因此关于这一点可以说的是，汽车业务一直对利率非常敏感，因为许多客户会融资购买。较低的利率可能有助于推动销售。但由于这是一个难以预测的外部因素，投资者应关注电动汽车制造商在产品管道中的主要催化因素：自动驾驶、低成本电动车和能源存储业务。</p>
<p>到今年夏天，特斯拉计划在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出一支自动驾驶汽车车队作为共享出行服务。除非你曾经在使用最新版本的监督全自动驾驶软件的特斯拉车辆中驾驶过，否则这听起来可能不切实际。但这项技术可能比许多投资者想象的更接近。</p>
<p>该软件可以帮助特斯拉车辆应对复杂情况，包括环形交叉口、交通信号灯、四向停车、变道、高速公路的并入和驶出、停车让行人等。随着这项技术内置于特斯拉生产的每一辆车中，公司可以迅速从自动驾驶共享出行的新参与者转变为主要参与者。</p>
<p>接下来，特斯拉计划推出一款更实惠的车辆，这可能会真正推动其增长。根据特斯拉管理层在公司第四季度财报电话会议上的评论，特斯拉的产品管道中可能不止一款新车。特斯拉首席财务官 Vaibhav Taneja 在电话会议中表示：“我们仍然按计划在 2025 年上半年推出一款更实惠的车型，并将继续扩展我们的产品线。”</p>
<p>最后，特斯拉上述的能源存储产品在 2025 年可能成为一个重要的催化因素。公司预计在 2025 年将显著增加能源存储的生产，得益于去年底完成的新工厂。</p>
<h2>特斯拉能否实现其高估值？</h2>
<p>在权衡特斯拉当前所处的艰难环境和前景看好的催化因素时，我认为股票仍然显得高估。截至目前，股票交易价格约为 250 美元，当前的市盈率为 122。如果股票价格跌至约 200 美元，我个人会考虑开始小额投资。尽管如此，即使在那个价格，我也会认为这项投资风险较高。</p>
<p>当然，今天的价格投资也有可能获得良好的回报。但考虑到这个快速变化的行业的不确定性，我更倾向于保持观望。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票在 2025 年下跌了 39%，引发了是否是购买的好时机的质疑。最近的表现令人失望，汽车收入同比下降了 6%，净收入下降了 53%。然而，能源存储产品的增长前景令人鼓舞。关键催化因素包括潜在的低利率、自动驾驶技术和新的经济型车型。尽管有这些因素，股票的市盈率为 122，似乎被高估，建议的买入价格约为 200 美元，但投资风险依然很高</p>

<p>Things have changed rapidly for <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.86%) stock in 2025. Just a few weeks ago, I assessed whether shares were worth buying after losing a fifth of their value this year. I concluded that buying the dip didn't make sense; the valuation relative to the company's underlying fundamentals simply seemed too high. But what about now? As of this writing, shares are down about 39% year to date. Facing an even steeper decline, is now a good time to buy into this growth story?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.86%) 的股票发生了迅速变化。就在几周前，我评估了在今年损失了五分之一的价值后，是否值得购买该股票。我得出的结论是，买入下跌的股票没有意义；相对于公司的基本面，估值似乎过高。但现在情况如何呢？截至目前，股票年初至今下跌了约 39%。面对更陡峭的下滑，现在是否是投资这个成长故事的好时机？</p>
</div><p>To help us consider whether Tesla stock is a buy after falling so sharply, let's examine the company's recent performance, its key catalysts, and the stock's current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了帮助我们考虑在如此急剧下跌后特斯拉股票是否值得购买，让我们来看看公司的近期表现、关键催化因素以及股票当前的估值。</p>
</div><h2>Deteriorating fundamentals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本面恶化</h2>
</div><p>Recent business performance for <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.86%) has been downright disappointing when measured against the stock's current valuation. A high-interest-rate environment weighed on Tesla's automotive demand during 2024, pressuring both unit sales volume and pricing. The electric carmaker's automotive revenue fell 6% year over year in 2024, putting total revenue up just 1% for the year. But it gets worse. Net income for the period fell 53% year over year, and free cash flow declined 18%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与股票当前估值相比，<strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA 3.86%) 最近的业务表现令人失望。高利率环境在 2024 年对特斯拉的汽车需求造成了压力，影响了单位销售量和定价。这家电动汽车制造商的汽车收入在 2024 年同比下降了 6%，全年总收入仅增长了 1%。但情况更糟。该期间的净收入同比下降了 53%，自由现金流下降了 18%。</p>
</div><p>Not every Tesla segment, however, is suffering. Driven by sharp growth in sales of its energy storage products for homes and utilities, Tesla's energy generation and storage business segment saw revenue rise 67% year over year. Growth for the segment was even faster in Q4, coming in at 113%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，并非所有特斯拉的业务板块都在遭受困扰。由于家庭和公用事业的能源存储产品销售大幅增长，特斯拉的能源发电和存储业务板块的收入同比增长了 67%。该板块在第四季度的增长速度甚至更快，达到了 113%。</p>
</div><p>Still, at about 10% of revenue, this segment remains small compared to Tesla's overall business. Weakness in autos, therefore, is weighing heavily on the overall business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，这一板块的收入约占特斯拉总收入的 10%，与特斯拉的整体业务相比仍然较小。因此，汽车业务的疲软对整体业务造成了很大压力。</p>
</div><h2>Key catalysts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关键催化因素</h2>
</div><p>However, investors can't define Tesla entirely by its recent results. A potential return to the high growth rates of its past (Tesla used to often grow revenue at a rate of around 50% year over year) shouldn't be ruled out. The company could potentially turn up the speed on its growth rate with the help of a lower-interest-rate environment or new products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者不能仅仅通过特斯拉最近的业绩来定义这家公司。过去的高增长率的潜在回归（特斯拉曾经常以约 50% 的年增长率增长收入）不应被排除。公司有可能在低利率环境或新产品和服务的帮助下加快增长速度。</p>
</div><p>With the interest rate environment out of Tesla's control, the only thing to say regarding this is that the automotive business has always been sensitive to interest rates since many customers finance their purchases. Lower interest rates, therefore, could help fuel sales. But since this is an external factor that is difficult to predict, investors should focus on the main catalysts the electric carmaker has in its product pipeline: autonomous driving, a lower-cost electric car, and its energy storage business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于利率环境不在特斯拉的控制之中，因此关于这一点可以说的是，汽车业务一直对利率非常敏感，因为许多客户会融资购买。较低的利率可能有助于推动销售。但由于这是一个难以预测的外部因素，投资者应关注电动汽车制造商在产品管道中的主要催化因素：自动驾驶、低成本电动车和能源存储业务。</p>
</div><p>By this summer, Tesla plans to launch a fleet of autonomous cars as a ride-sharing service in Austin, Texas. Unless you've driven in one of Tesla's vehicles using the latest version of supervised full self-driving software, this might sound unrealistic. But the technology may be closer than many investors think.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到今年夏天，特斯拉计划在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出一支自动驾驶汽车车队作为共享出行服务。除非你曾经在使用最新版本的监督全自动驾驶软件的特斯拉车辆中驾驶过，否则这听起来可能不切实际。但这项技术可能比许多投资者想象的更接近。</p>
</div><p>The software can help Tesla vehicles navigate complex situations, including traffic circles, traffic lights, four-way stops, lane changes, merging on and off highways, stopping for pedestrians, and much more. With this technology built into every car Tesla produces, the company can quickly go from a new player in autonomous ride sharing to a major one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该软件可以帮助特斯拉车辆应对复杂情况，包括环形交叉口、交通信号灯、四向停车、变道、高速公路的并入和驶出、停车让行人等。随着这项技术内置于特斯拉生产的每一辆车中，公司可以迅速从自动驾驶共享出行的新参与者转变为主要参与者。</p>
</div><p>Next, Tesla's plans to launch a more affordable vehicle could really catalyze its growth. Based on Tesla management's comments during the company's fourth-quarter earnings call, there is likely more than one new vehicle in Tesla's pipeline. &#34;We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there,&#34; said Tesla Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja during the call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，特斯拉计划推出一款更实惠的车辆，这可能会真正推动其增长。根据特斯拉管理层在公司第四季度财报电话会议上的评论，特斯拉的产品管道中可能不止一款新车。特斯拉首席财务官 Vaibhav Taneja 在电话会议中表示：“我们仍然按计划在 2025 年上半年推出一款更实惠的车型，并将继续扩展我们的产品线。”</p>
</div><p>Finally, Tesla's aforementioned energy storage products could be a meaningful catalyst in 2025. The company expects to grow energy storage production significantly in 2025 with the help of a new factory it finished late last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，特斯拉上述的能源存储产品在 2025 年可能成为一个重要的催化因素。公司预计在 2025 年将显著增加能源存储的生产，得益于去年底完成的新工厂。</p>
</div><h2>Can Tesla live up to its premium valuation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉能否实现其高估值？</h2>
</div><p>When weighing both the tough environment Tesla is currently operating in and the promising catalysts it has on the horizon, shares still look overpriced, in my opinion. With shares trading at about $250 at the time of this writing, the stock's current price-to-earnings ratio is 122. I'd personally consider starting a small position in the stock if shares fell to around $200. Though, even at that price, I'd consider the investment high risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在权衡特斯拉当前所处的艰难环境和前景看好的催化因素时，我认为股票仍然显得高估。截至目前，股票交易价格约为 250 美元，当前的市盈率为 122。如果股票价格跌至约 200 美元，我个人会考虑开始小额投资。尽管如此，即使在那个价格，我也会认为这项投资风险较高。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there's always a chance the investment will work out well at today's price. But given the uncertain nature of this fast-changing business, I prefer to remain on the sidelines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，今天的价格投资也有可能获得良好的回报。但考虑到这个快速变化的行业的不确定性，我更倾向于保持观望。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Has Lost More Than a Third of Its Value in 2025: Time to Buy?

- 特斯拉股票在 2025 年下跌约 39%，面临严峻的市场环境。  
- 2024 年汽车收入同比下降 6%，净收入下降 53%。  
- 尽管有潜在的增长催化剂，当前估值仍显高。  

特斯拉股票在 2025 年已经损失了超过三分之一的价值：现在是买入的好时机吗？