<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -1.45%）在牛市期间表现出色，去年上涨了 44%，因为投资者纷纷涌向成长型企业和那些投资于可能改变游戏规则的人工智能（AI）技术的公司。这家科技和消费品巨头凭借其云计算和电子商务业务，拥有长期的盈利增长记录，并且已经从其人工智能投资中受益。去年，亚马逊的云业务报告了 1150 亿美元的年化收入运行率。因此，该公司确实证明了自己在近期是一个值得拥有的优秀股票。</p>
<p>但随着对未来经济和特朗普总统关税影响的疑问不断增加，你可能会想知道亚马逊是否能够抵御即将到来的潜在风暴。现在说经济是否会保持一定的强度、减弱，甚至滑入衰退区间还为时尚早——但无论经济在某一时刻的表现如何，考虑一只股票的 “抗衰退” 潜力总是一个好主意。而那些具备应对艰难时期并继续增长能力的公司，值得在你的投资组合中占有一席之地。</p>
<p>那么，亚马逊是否抗衰退呢？让我们从历史中寻找一些线索。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE1NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE4Njk1NzY2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE1NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE4Njk1NzY2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的转型</h2>
<p>在考虑历史时，重要的是要注意，像亚马逊这样的成长型公司今天可能与过去的样子并不完全相同。例如，亚马逊在 1990 年代中期起初是一家在线书店，后来扩展到其他产品和业务，并且在 2006 年才推出其主要的利润驱动业务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。</p>
<p>所有这些意味着，今天的亚马逊在应对衰退时可能与昨天的亚马逊有所不同。亚马逊每年产生数十亿美元的收益，并且拥有应对危机的财务资源，这一点是积极的。但另一方面，其业务比早期更加复杂——例如，运营一个庞大的全球履约网络——使其在某些经济压力下（如更高的通货膨胀）变得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>尽管如此，历史可以为我们提供某种类型的企业在艰难时期的表现和应对方式的一般感知。因此，让我们看看亚马逊在过去三次衰退期间的表现。</p>
<p>最近的一次是 COVID-19 衰退，这次衰退持续时间相对较短，仅在 2020 年持续了两个月。顾名思义，它是由疫情引发的——这场健康危机导致了企业的临时关闭和供应链的中断。</p>
<p>以下是亚马逊在那段时间的表现，图表中的阴影部分代表衰退期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>亚马逊在大衰退期间的表现</h2>
<p>在得出任何结论之前，让我们考虑一下之前的衰退。下一个最近的衰退是大衰退，持续时间从 2007 年到 2009 年，与次贷危机和整体房地产市场崩溃有关。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>最后，让我们看看互联网泡沫破裂，或被高估的科技股崩溃，这导致了 2001 年的市场崩盘。而 9·11 恐怖袭击进一步加大了市场压力。</p>
<p>以下是亚马逊在那段时间及随后的两年中的表现。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>观察这三张图表显示出相似的模式。是的，亚马逊在衰退期间下跌，但在衰退结束时或紧接着衰退后，股票反弹并继续上涨。这本身就为我们在未来任何潜在的衰退中对亚马逊保持乐观提供了理由——但我还有另一个积极的观点要补充。</p>
<h2>从高通胀中学习的教训</h2>
<p>几年前，随着通货膨胀飙升，亚马逊在随之而来的成本压力下挣扎，甚至报告了近十年来的首次年度亏损。然而，重要的是，该公司采取了行动。这家科技巨头重新调整了其成本结构，裁减了员工，并在其履约网络中精简了流程——一个关键的变化是从全国履约模式转向区域履约模式。这一将库存更靠近客户的举措正在帮助亚马逊降低服务成本，公司表示在这一领域仍在不断改进。</p>
<p>这种成本结构的重组使得亚马逊在历史上即使在衰退期间也证明了其实力，现在处于更有利的位置。凭借改善的成本控制能力，亚马逊可以更轻松地应对经济放缓，并限制对收益的影响。因此，历史表明亚马逊能够在最艰难的时期中前进——而近年来公司所做的举措进一步巩固了这一点，使其成为一个极好的抗衰退股票，值得加入你的投资组合。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊在之前的经济衰退期间表现强劲，包括 COVID-19 衰退、大萧条和互联网泡沫破裂。尽管面临通货膨胀等挑战，公司通过重组成本结构和精简运营进行了适应。这使得亚马逊在应对潜在经济下滑时处于有利位置。历史上，尽管亚马逊的股票在衰退期间可能会下跌，但通常会在之后反弹，这表明其作为潜在抗衰退股票的韧性</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.45%) has been a top performer during the bull market, gaining 44% last year as investors piled into growth players and companies investing in the potentially game-changing technology of artificial intelligence (AI). This tech and consumer goods giant has a long track record of earnings growth thanks to its cloud computing and e-commerce businesses, and it's already benefiting from its AI investment. Last year, Amazon's cloud business reported a $115 billion annualized revenue run rate. So, the company truly has proven itself to be a great stock to own in recent times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN -1.45%）在牛市期间表现出色，去年上涨了 44%，因为投资者纷纷涌向成长型企业和那些投资于可能改变游戏规则的人工智能（AI）技术的公司。这家科技和消费品巨头凭借其云计算和电子商务业务，拥有长期的盈利增长记录，并且已经从其人工智能投资中受益。去年，亚马逊的云业务报告了 1150 亿美元的年化收入运行率。因此，该公司确实证明了自己在近期是一个值得拥有的优秀股票。</p>
</div><p>But with questions mounting about the economy ahead and the impact of President Trump's tariffs, you may be wondering if Amazon can weather any potential storm on the horizon. It's too early to say whether the economy will maintain a certain level of strength, weaken, or even slip into recession territory -- but no matter what the economy is doing at a given time, it's always a good idea to consider a stock's &#34;recession-resistant&#34; potential. And some of those players that do have what it takes to manage tough times and go on to grow deserve a spot in your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着对未来经济和特朗普总统关税影响的疑问不断增加，你可能会想知道亚马逊是否能够抵御即将到来的潜在风暴。现在说经济是否会保持一定的强度、减弱，甚至滑入衰退区间还为时尚早——但无论经济在某一时刻的表现如何，考虑一只股票的 “抗衰退” 潜力总是一个好主意。而那些具备应对艰难时期并继续增长能力的公司，值得在你的投资组合中占有一席之地。</p>
</div><p>So, is Amazon recession-resistant? Let's look to history for some clues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，亚马逊是否抗衰退呢？让我们从历史中寻找一些线索。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE1NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE4Njk1NzY2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811579%2Fgettyimages-1186957660.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's transformation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的转型</h2>
</div><p>When considering history, it's important to note that a growth company such as Amazon may not be the exact same player today that it was in the past. For example, Amazon started out as an online bookseller in the mid-1990s, later expanded into other products and businesses, and only launched its big profit driver -- Amazon Web Services (AWS) -- in 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑历史时，重要的是要注意，像亚马逊这样的成长型公司今天可能与过去的样子并不完全相同。例如，亚马逊在 1990 年代中期起初是一家在线书店，后来扩展到其他产品和业务，并且在 2006 年才推出其主要的利润驱动业务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。</p>
</div><p>All this means the Amazon of today may handle a recession differently than the Amazon of yesterday. Amazon generates billions of dollars in earnings and has the financial resources to manage a crisis, and that's positive. But, on the downside, the fact that its business is much more complex -- operating a massive global fulfillment network, for example -- than it was in the early days makes it more vulnerable to certain economic pressures such as higher inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些意味着，今天的亚马逊在应对衰退时可能与昨天的亚马逊有所不同。亚马逊每年产生数十亿美元的收益，并且拥有应对危机的财务资源，这一点是积极的。但另一方面，其业务比早期更加复杂——例如，运营一个庞大的全球履约网络——使其在某些经济压力下（如更高的通货膨胀）变得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Still, history can offer us a general sense of how a certain type of business has fared -- and has managed -- difficult times. So, let's take a look at Amazon's performance during the past three recession periods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，历史可以为我们提供某种类型的企业在艰难时期的表现和应对方式的一般感知。因此，让我们看看亚马逊在过去三次衰退期间的表现。</p>
</div><p>The most recent was the COVID-19 recession, which was rather short-lived, as it lasted just two months in 2020. As its name implies, it was sparked by the pandemic -- a health crisis that led to temporary shutdowns of businesses and supply chain disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的一次是 COVID-19 衰退，这次衰退持续时间相对较短，仅在 2020 年持续了两个月。顾名思义，它是由疫情引发的——这场健康危机导致了企业的临时关闭和供应链的中断。</p>
</div><p>Here's a look at Amazon's performance around that time, with the shaded bar in the chart representing the recession period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是亚马逊在那段时间的表现，图表中的阴影部分代表衰退期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's performance during the Great Recession</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊在大衰退期间的表现</h2>
</div><p>Before drawing any conclusions, let's consider previous recessions. The next-most recent was the Great Recession, spanning 2007 through 2009, and it was linked to the subprime mortgage crisis and a general housing market collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在得出任何结论之前，让我们考虑一下之前的衰退。下一个最近的衰退是大衰退，持续时间从 2007 年到 2009 年，与次贷危机和整体房地产市场崩溃有关。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Finally, let's turn to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, or the tumbling of overvalued tech stocks, which led to a crash in 2001. And the Sept. 11 terror attacks added to pressure on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，让我们看看互联网泡沫破裂，或被高估的科技股崩溃，这导致了 2001 年的市场崩盘。而 9·11 恐怖袭击进一步加大了市场压力。</p>
</div><p>Here's how Amazon performed at that time, and in the following two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是亚马逊在那段时间及随后的两年中的表现。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>A look at all three of these charts shows a similar pattern. Yes, Amazon fell during the recession periods, but toward the end or immediately after the recession, the stock rebounded and went on to gain. That alone offers us reason to be optimistic about Amazon during any potential recession down the road -- but I've got another positive point to add.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>观察这三张图表显示出相似的模式。是的，亚马逊在衰退期间下跌，但在衰退结束时或紧接着衰退后，股票反弹并继续上涨。这本身就为我们在未来任何潜在的衰退中对亚马逊保持乐观提供了理由——但我还有另一个积极的观点要补充。</p>
</div><h2>Learning lessons from high inflation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>从高通胀中学习的教训</h2>
</div><p>As inflation roared higher a few years ago, Amazon struggled with the resulting costs and even reported its first annual loss in almost a decade. Importantly, though, the company took action. The tech giant revamped its cost structure, cutting jobs and streamlining processes across its fulfillment network -- one key change was the transition from a national fulfillment model to a regional one. This move to bring inventory closer to the customer is helping Amazon reduce its cost to serve, and the company says it continues to make improvements in this area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几年前，随着通货膨胀飙升，亚马逊在随之而来的成本压力下挣扎，甚至报告了近十年来的首次年度亏损。然而，重要的是，该公司采取了行动。这家科技巨头重新调整了其成本结构，裁减了员工，并在其履约网络中精简了流程——一个关键的变化是从全国履约模式转向区域履约模式。这一将库存更靠近客户的举措正在帮助亚马逊降低服务成本，公司表示在这一领域仍在不断改进。</p>
</div><p>This revamping of the cost structure puts Amazon, which through history has proven its strength even during a recession, in an even better position to excel. With an improved ability to control costs, Amazon could more easily manage a slowdown and limit the impact on earnings. So, history shows Amazon's ability to advance through the worst of times -- and moves the company has made in recent years have reinforced this, making it a fantastic recession-resistant stock to add to your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种成本结构的重组使得亚马逊在历史上即使在衰退期间也证明了其实力，现在处于更有利的位置。凭借改善的成本控制能力，亚马逊可以更轻松地应对经济放缓，并限制对收益的影响。因此，历史表明亚马逊能够在最艰难的时期中前进——而近年来公司所做的举措进一步巩固了这一点，使其成为一个极好的抗衰退股票，值得加入你的投资组合。</p>
</div>

Is Amazon a Recession-Resistant Stock? Here's What History Says.

- 亚马逊在牛市中表现出色，去年增长 44%。
- 尽管面临经济不确定性，亚马逊具备应对衰退的潜力。
- 历史数据显示，亚马逊在历次衰退后均能反弹并实现增长。

亚马逊是一只抗衰退的股票吗？历史告诉了我们什么