<p>在过去几年中，投资 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.31%) 股票亏损是相当困难的。大多数情况下，股票的任何抛售都被渴望利用低迷行情的买家所抵消，从而使 Nvidia 的股票迅速回升。</p>
<p>然而，今年情况有些不同。截至 2025 年，Nvidia 的股票已下跌多达 20%。尽管股票略有反弹，但 Nvidia 的股票今年仍然下跌约 9%。</p>
<p>让我们探讨一些影响 Nvidia 股票抛售的核心因素，并评估现在是否是购买股票的好时机。Nvidia 的股票是否可能进一步下跌？</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票在 2025 年开局不佳，但...</h2>
<p>如下图所示，2025 年对 Nvidia 投资者并不友好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>大约在 1 月底，Nvidia 的股票因一则震撼报道而开始下滑，该报道指出一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司在旧款 Nvidia 芯片上构建和训练其人工智能（AI）模型，这引发了对公司最新架构可行性的质疑。</p>
<p>对 DeepSeek 声明的担忧引发了 Nvidia 股票的短暂恐慌性抛售。然而，华尔街的许多分析师和领先的 AI 研究人员在深入挖掘 DeepSeek 的故事后，减轻了这些担忧。专家们的共识是，DeepSeek 在其 AI 模型上的支出可能远高于最初报告的金额。</p>
<p>此外，云计算巨头 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>，以及社交媒体领头羊 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，在 DeepSeek 事件中都加大了对 AI 基础设施的投资计划。具体而言，这些公司预计在 2025 年将花费超过 3200 亿美元用于芯片、数据中心等。</p>
<p>如上图所示，Nvidia 的股票在 2 月初开始反弹——当时大型科技公司的支出计划变得更加公开。考虑到我提到的每家公司都与 Nvidia 合作，投资者最初开始摆脱 DeepSeek 的叙述，重新买入 Nvidia 的牛市案例。</p>
<p>尽管如此，股票在 2 月底再次大幅下跌——这一趋势持续到 3 月。虽然 Nvidia 的最大客户确实计划在今年大力投资 AI 基础设施，但并非所有资金都将分配给该公司。Amazon、Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta，甚至 OpenAI 都在探索开发定制硅芯片。</p>
<p>将更多芯片引入 GPU 市场可能会在未来对 Nvidia 施加压力，尤其是在价格方面。此外，如果大型科技公司开始用自己的定制芯片来补充现有的 Nvidia 基础设施，那么 Nvidia 的增长开始放缓是合理的。</p>
<p>最后，Nvidia 股票最近的下跌可能与白宫的新关税政策有关。虽然关于这些关税的具体细节及其可能对贸易的影响仍有很多未知数，但投资者在过去几周大多在抛售成长股，而 Nvidia 也不例外。</p>
<h2>... 业务仍然处于良好状态</h2>
<p>尽管 Nvidia 股票今年的每次抛售都有不同的触发因素，但 DeepSeek 事件、对定制硅的投资增加以及关税的影响有一个共同主题——即每个因素都是一种投机性叙述，而不是会改变 Nvidia 未来的具体、明确的风险。</p>
<p>如果你看看 Nvidia 的基本业务，实际上它的状况非常良好。在公司的第四财季，其新的 Blackwell GPU 架构产生了 110 亿美元的销售额。这对于其首个完整的营业季度来说，表现相当不错。</p>
<p>此外，Nvidia 还表示，尽管在 Blackwell 发布的激烈开发中，其毛利率仍保持在 70% 以上。更令人鼓舞的是，管理层预计毛利率将在今年晚些时候回升至中 70s，这表明随着 Blackwell 成为公司增长的更关键组成部分，Nvidia 仍将保持高水平的经营杠杆。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzNTgvZ2V0dHktcGVyc29uLXNocnVnZ2luZy1xdWVzdGlvbmluZy11bnN1cmUtYXNraW5nLW15c3RlcnktY29uZnVzZWQtMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzNTgvZ2V0dHktcGVyc29uLXNocnVnZ2luZy1xdWVzdGlvbmluZy11bnN1cmUtYXNraW5nLW15c3RlcnktY29uZnVzZWQtMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>我对 Nvidia 股票一年后的预测</h2>
<p>据我所知，DeepSeek 的担忧已经减弱。虽然大型科技公司可能会宣传他们自己定制芯片的突破，但我认为 Nvidia 的 Blackwell 业绩不言而喻。我的意思是，如果大型科技公司确实开始远离 Nvidia 的芯片组，该公司的当前业绩和未来指引表明对 Blackwell 的需求依然强劲。</p>
<p>此外，我认为关于关税的持续争议不会持续太久。最终，我认为当前政府将达成其认为合理的贸易协议；如果发生这种情况，市场应该会开始看到一些新的生机。</p>
<p>我的预测是，Nvidia 股票将在一年后以惊人的方式反弹，交易价格将比今天高得多。在此之前，我认为现在是利用低迷价格行动的绝佳机会，购买 Nvidia 的股票，享受罕见的折扣价格。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达（Nvidia，股票代码：NVDA）在 2025 年初面临挑战，股价下跌 20% 后略有反弹，目前今年累计下跌 9%。市场担忧来自一家中国初创公司 DeepSeek，该公司 reportedly 在较旧的英伟达技术上训练 AI 模型，引发了恐慌性抛售。然而，主要科技公司预计将在 AI 基础设施上投资超过 3200 亿美元，这可能对英伟达有利。尽管面临定制硅开发和新关税的压力，英伟达的基础业务依然强劲，其新款 Blackwell GPU 架构的销售额达到 110 亿美元。预测显示，随着对 Blackwell 的需求保持强劲，英伟达的股价可能会恢复</p>

<p>It's been pretty hard to lose money investing in <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.31%) stock over the last few years. For the most part, any sell-offs witnessed in the stock were met with buyers eager to take advantage of depressed action -- thereby sending Nvidia stock right back up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去几年中，投资 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.31%) 股票亏损是相当困难的。大多数情况下，股票的任何抛售都被渴望利用低迷行情的买家所抵消，从而使 Nvidia 的股票迅速回升。</p>
</div><p>However, this year has been a little bit different. So far in 2025, shares of Nvidia have dropped by as much as 20%. While the stock has rebounded slightly, Nvidia stock is still down by about 9% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年情况有些不同。截至 2025 年，Nvidia 的股票已下跌多达 20%。尽管股票略有反弹，但 Nvidia 的股票今年仍然下跌约 9%。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore some of the core factors influencing the sell-off in Nvidia stock, and assess if shares are a good buy right now. Could Nvidia stock be headed even lower?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们探讨一些影响 Nvidia 股票抛售的核心因素，并评估现在是否是购买股票的好时机。Nvidia 的股票是否可能进一步下跌？</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia stock has gotten off to a rough start in 2025, but...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票在 2025 年开局不佳，但...</h2>
</div><p>As the chart below illustrates, 2025 hasn't been so kind to Nvidia investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如下图所示，2025 年对 Nvidia 投资者并不友好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Around late January, shares of Nvidia started to slide thanks to bombshell reporting that a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek built and trained its artificial intelligence (AI) models on older Nvidia chipware -- calling into question the viability of the company's newest architectures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约在 1 月底，Nvidia 的股票因一则震撼报道而开始下滑，该报道指出一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司在旧款 Nvidia 芯片上构建和训练其人工智能（AI）模型，这引发了对公司最新架构可行性的质疑。</p>
</div><p>Concerns around DeepSeek's claims inspired a brief period of panic-selling in Nvidia stock. However, many analysts on Wall Street and leading AI researchers curtailed these concerns after digging deeper into the DeepSeek storyline. The consensus among experts was that DeepSeek likely spent significantly more on its AI model than initially reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对 DeepSeek 声明的担忧引发了 Nvidia 股票的短暂恐慌性抛售。然而，华尔街的许多分析师和领先的 AI 研究人员在深入挖掘 DeepSeek 的故事后，减轻了这些担忧。专家们的共识是，DeepSeek 在其 AI 模型上的支出可能远高于最初报告的金额。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, cloud hyperscalers <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>, as well as social media leader <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, all doubled down on the AI infrastructure plans in the midst of the DeepSeek saga. Specifically, these companies are forecast to spend more than $320 billion on chipware, data centers, and more just in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，云计算巨头 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>，以及社交媒体领头羊 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，在 DeepSeek 事件中都加大了对 AI 基础设施的投资计划。具体而言，这些公司预计在 2025 年将花费超过 3200 亿美元用于芯片、数据中心等。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, Nvidia stock started to rebound during the early parts of February -- once the spending plans from big tech became more public. Considering each of the companies I referenced above works with Nvidia, investors initially started to shake off the DeepSeek narrative and buy back into the bull case around Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上图所示，Nvidia 的股票在 2 月初开始反弹——当时大型科技公司的支出计划变得更加公开。考虑到我提到的每家公司都与 Nvidia 合作，投资者最初开始摆脱 DeepSeek 的叙述，重新买入 Nvidia 的牛市案例。</p>
</div><p>With that said, shares took yet another nosedive during the latter portion of February -- a trend that's continued well into March. While Nvidia's biggest customers are indeed planning to invest heavily into AI infrastructure this year, not all of that is going to be allocated toward the company. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and even OpenAI are all exploring the development of custom silicon chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，股票在 2 月底再次大幅下跌——这一趋势持续到 3 月。虽然 Nvidia 的最大客户确实计划在今年大力投资 AI 基础设施，但并非所有资金都将分配给该公司。Amazon、Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta，甚至 OpenAI 都在探索开发定制硅芯片。</p>
</div><p>Bringing more chipware to the GPU market could put pressure on Nvidia in the future, especially as it relates to price. Furthermore, should big tech companies begin to complement existing Nvidia infrastructure with their own custom chips, it's reasonable to think Nvidia's growth will begin to slow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将更多芯片引入 GPU 市场可能会在未来对 Nvidia 施加压力，尤其是在价格方面。此外，如果大型科技公司开始用自己的定制芯片来补充现有的 Nvidia 基础设施，那么 Nvidia 的增长开始放缓是合理的。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, the most recent dip in Nvidia stock can likely be traced to new tariff policies out of the White House. While there are a lot of unknowns around the specifics of these tariffs and how they might influence trade, investors have been largely selling out of growth stocks over the last couple of weeks -- and Nvidia has been no exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，Nvidia 股票最近的下跌可能与白宫的新关税政策有关。虽然关于这些关税的具体细节及其可能对贸易的影响仍有很多未知数，但投资者在过去几周大多在抛售成长股，而 Nvidia 也不例外。</p>
</div><h2>... the business is still in great shape</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>... 业务仍然处于良好状态</h2>
</div><p>Although each sell-off in Nvidia stock this year has had a different trigger, the DeepSeek story, rising investment in custom silicon, and the impacts of tariffs share a common theme -- namely, each is a speculative narrative rather than a concrete, definitive risk that will alter Nvidia's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Nvidia 股票今年的每次抛售都有不同的触发因素，但 DeepSeek 事件、对定制硅的投资增加以及关税的影响有一个共同主题——即每个因素都是一种投机性叙述，而不是会改变 Nvidia 未来的具体、明确的风险。</p>
</div><p>If you look at Nvidia's underlying business, it's actually in terrific shape. During the company's fourth fiscal quarter, its new Blackwell GPU architecture generated $11 billion in sales. That's not too shabby for its first full quarter in business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你看看 Nvidia 的基本业务，实际上它的状况非常良好。在公司的第四财季，其新的 Blackwell GPU 架构产生了 110 亿美元的销售额。这对于其首个完整的营业季度来说，表现相当不错。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Nvidia boasted that its gross margin remained well above 70% despite aggressive development for the Blackwell launch. What's even more encouraging is that management is guiding for gross margin to return to the mid-70s later this year -- indicating that Nvidia should still command high degrees of operating leverage as Blackwell becomes a more critical component to the company's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Nvidia 还表示，尽管在 Blackwell 发布的激烈开发中，其毛利率仍保持在 70% 以上。更令人鼓舞的是，管理层预计毛利率将在今年晚些时候回升至中 70s，这表明随着 Blackwell 成为公司增长的更关键组成部分，Nvidia 仍将保持高水平的经营杠杆。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzNTgvZ2V0dHktcGVyc29uLXNocnVnZ2luZy1xdWVzdGlvbmluZy11bnN1cmUtYXNraW5nLW15c3RlcnktY29uZnVzZWQtMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811358%2Fgetty-person-shrugging-questioning-unsure-asking-mystery-confused-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>My prediction for Nvidia stock one year from now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我对 Nvidia 股票一年后的预测</h2>
</div><p>As far as I can tell, the DeepSeek concerns have already subsided. While big tech will likely tout breakthroughs in their own custom chipware, I think Nvidia's Blackwell results speak for themselves. What I mean by that is if big tech does in fact migrate away from Nvidia chipsets, the company's current results and future guidance indicate that demand for Blackwell remains strong anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>据我所知，DeepSeek 的担忧已经减弱。虽然大型科技公司可能会宣传他们自己定制芯片的突破，但我认为 Nvidia 的 Blackwell 业绩不言而喻。我的意思是，如果大型科技公司确实开始远离 Nvidia 的芯片组，该公司的当前业绩和未来指引表明对 Blackwell 的需求依然强劲。</p>
</div><p>In addition, I do not think ongoing disputes over tariffs are going to last very long. Eventually, I think the current administration will reach trade agreements that it finds reasonable; the markets should begin to see some new life should that occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，我认为关于关税的持续争议不会持续太久。最终，我认为当前政府将达成其认为合理的贸易协议；如果发生这种情况，市场应该会开始看到一些新的生机。</p>
</div><p>My prediction is that Nvidia stock will rebound in spectacular fashion and be trading at a much higher price one year from now compared to where it is today. Until then, I think now looks like a great opportunity to take advantage of the depressed price action and scoop up shares of Nvidia at a rarely discounted price point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的预测是，Nvidia 股票将在一年后以惊人的方式反弹，交易价格将比今天高得多。在此之前，我认为现在是利用低迷价格行动的绝佳机会，购买 Nvidia 的股票，享受罕见的折扣价格。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 2025 年，Nvidia 股价下跌约 20%，目前仍下滑 9%。  
- 下跌原因包括 DeepSeek 的 AI 模型影响及新关税政策。  
- 尽管面临挑战，Nvidia 的基本面依然强劲，未来有望反弹。

英伟达的股票在一年后会达到什么水平？