<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.80%）的投资者在过去几个月经历了一场紧张的旅程。该股在唐纳德·特朗普连任的热情推动下飙升至历史新高，但自 2024 年 12 月达到 488 美元的峰值后，已回吐所有涨幅。周一收盘时，该股报 238 美元。</p>
<p>一些空头对埃隆·马斯克的政治参与表示担忧，尽管多头对特斯拉的长期前景依然坚定。在近期暴跌后，这只股票是否值得购买？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzODIvZWxlY3RyaWMtY2FyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzODIvZWxlY3RyaWMtY2FyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>为什么特斯拉的股票崩盘了？</h2>
<p>投资者在购买下跌股票之前，必须了解导致股票下跌的原因。虽然这个过程从来都不是简单和精确的，但你需要对公司的情况有一个大致的了解。</p>
<p>在特斯拉的案例中，有几个重要问题推动了近期的股票表现。首先可能是马斯克与美国政治的密切关系。一方面，他与特朗普的紧密联系以及马斯克领导的政府效率部门倡议可能会让持不同政治立场的消费者感到不满，从而影响销售。马斯克的多重角色也意味着他有更少的时间来管理特斯拉，这可能会在长期内影响公司。马斯克还在他创办的 SpaceX 和他收购的社交媒体平台 X 担任领导职务。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，特斯拉最近报告了令人失望的财务表现。2024 年，收入仅增长 1%，而净收入同比下降 53%。尽管进行了大幅降价，公司交付的汽车数量在 2024 年减少了 1%。特斯拉的疲软销售表现表明，电动汽车（EV）行业的竞争加剧，迫使公司迅速采取行动，否则将面临失去市场份额的风险。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的长期前景依然乐观</h2>
<p>尽管特斯拉的短期前景似乎不太令人兴奋（甚至是负面的，考虑到上述问题），但其长期机会依然丰富。</p>
<p>电动汽车的转型仍处于初期阶段，这一大趋势的完全展开可能需要数年甚至数十年。作为该行业的领导者，特斯拉在电动汽车逐渐取代内燃机汽车的过程中，处于有利的位置来增长销售。</p>
<p>此外，特斯拉正在努力降低生产成本，以便能够以更实惠的价格销售汽车并获得市场份额。为此，其每辆车的平均销售成本在 2024 年第四季度降至新低，并可能进一步下降，利用特斯拉日益增长的运营杠杆。</p>
<p>除了主要销售电动汽车外，特斯拉还在多个大趋势中占据了有利地位，这些趋势的潜在价值可能超过电动汽车行业。以自动驾驶为例，特斯拉旨在引领机器人出租车行业。它计划在 2026 年开始在德克萨斯州的超级工厂生产机器人出租车。</p>
<p>另一个在未来几年可能会显著增长的领域是可再生能源。特斯拉的产品涵盖从电池到太阳能电池板和充电网络的多个领域。我们还不能忘记 Optimus，特斯拉的人形机器人，它可能会改变我们的生活和工作方式。总的来说，这些年轻的业务有潜在的可寻址市场，价值数百亿（甚至数万亿）美元。</p>
<p>当然，这假设特斯拉不会失去焦点，并将在未来几年继续执行。</p>
<h2>股票价格昂贵</h2>
<p>投资者在购买特斯拉股票时面临的最大问题之一是其估值。由于投资者对其前景的乐观，特斯拉的股票几乎总是以高倍数定价。</p>
<p>但随着其股票价格的近期下跌，特斯拉是否终于以合理的估值交易？让我们来看两个简单的比率：市销率（P/S）和市盈率（P/E）。</p>
<p>截至目前，该股的市销率和市盈率分别为 8.6 和 118。作为对比，谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的市销率和市盈率分别为 6.2 和 20。因此，尽管特斯拉的股票大幅下跌，但考虑到其大部分收入来自汽车销售，它的估值仍然昂贵，且其倍数高于一家领先科技巨头的倍数。</p>
<p>换句话说，投资者已经将特斯拉尚未实现的许多前景计入了股价。</p>
<h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
<p>特斯拉仍然是市场上最令人兴奋但又极具争议的股票之一。电动汽车、自动驾驶和能源解决方案的长期潜力是不可否认的。然而，公司的短期挑战——从疲软的财务表现到领导层担忧和政治争议——同样显著。</p>
<p>在当前的估值下，特斯拉仍然要求溢价。因此，尽管股票的急剧下跌可能会吸引寻求便宜货的投资者，但风险依然很高，尤其是在竞争加剧和执行不确定性增加的情况下。</p>
<p>除非是高风险偏好的投资者，否则目前应避免购买该股票。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票从 2024 年 12 月的峰值 488 美元暴跌了 50%，收盘价为 238 美元。对埃隆·马斯克政治参与的担忧以及令人失望的财务业绩，包括净收入下降 53% 和收入增长停滞，都是导致股价下跌的原因。尽管面临这些挑战，特斯拉在电动车市场、自动驾驶和可再生能源方面的长期前景依然强劲。然而，考虑到其市销率和市盈率分别为 8.6 和 118，该股票仍被认为价格昂贵，这引发了人们对其估值的质疑，尤其是在竞争日益激烈的情况下</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>'s (TSLA 2.80%) investors have had a nerve-racking ride over the last few months. The stock soared to an all-time high on the back of enthusiasm accompanying Donald Trump's re-election, but it has given back all of those gains since peaking at $488 in December 2024. The stock closed Monday at $238.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 2.80%）的投资者在过去几个月经历了一场紧张的旅程。该股在唐纳德·特朗普连任的热情推动下飙升至历史新高，但自 2024 年 12 月达到 488 美元的峰值后，已回吐所有涨幅。周一收盘时，该股报 238 美元。</p>
</div><p>Some bears are concerned about Elon Musk's political involvement, though the bulls remain steadfast about Tesla's long-term prospects. Is the stock a buy after its recent plunge?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些空头对埃隆·马斯克的政治参与表示担忧，尽管多头对特斯拉的长期前景依然坚定。在近期暴跌后，这只股票是否值得购买？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzODIvZWxlY3RyaWMtY2FyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811382%2Felectric-car.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why has Tesla's stock crashed?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么特斯拉的股票崩盘了？</h2>
</div><p>One of the most important things that investors must know before buying a declining stock is what might have caused the stock to fall in the first place. While this exercise is never straightforward and precise, you need a broad idea of what's going on with the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在购买下跌股票之前，必须了解导致股票下跌的原因。虽然这个过程从来都不是简单和精确的，但你需要对公司的情况有一个大致的了解。</p>
</div><p>In the case of Tesla, a few significant issues have been driving the recent stock performance. Topping the list is probably Musk's close involvement in U.S. politics. On one hand, his close association with Trump and Musk's leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency initiative may displease consumers with different political stances, which could be hurting sales. Multitasker Musk's active involvement also means that he has less time to run Tesla, which could affect the company in the long term. Musk also has leadership roles at SpaceX, which he founded, and social media platform X, which he bought.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在特斯拉的案例中，有几个重要问题推动了近期的股票表现。首先可能是马斯克与美国政治的密切关系。一方面，他与特朗普的紧密联系以及马斯克领导的政府效率部门倡议可能会让持不同政治立场的消费者感到不满，从而影响销售。马斯克的多重角色也意味着他有更少的时间来管理特斯拉，这可能会在长期内影响公司。马斯克还在他创办的 SpaceX 和他收购的社交媒体平台 X 担任领导职务。</p>
</div><p>To add salt to the wound, Tesla recently reported disappointing financial performance. Revenue grew just 1%, while net income fell 53% year over year in 2024. The company delivered 1% fewer cars in 2024, and that's despite huge price cuts. Tesla's weak sales performance suggests that competition in the electric vehicle (EV) industry has intensified, requiring the company to act quickly or risk losing its market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，特斯拉最近报告了令人失望的财务表现。2024 年，收入仅增长 1%，而净收入同比下降 53%。尽管进行了大幅降价，公司交付的汽车数量在 2024 年减少了 1%。特斯拉的疲软销售表现表明，电动汽车（EV）行业的竞争加剧，迫使公司迅速采取行动，否则将面临失去市场份额的风险。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's long-term prospects remain optimistic</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的长期前景依然乐观</h2>
</div><p>While Tesla's near-term prospects seem unexciting (even negative, given the issues discussed above), its long-term opportunities remain plentiful.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉的短期前景似乎不太令人兴奋（甚至是负面的，考虑到上述问题），但其长期机会依然丰富。</p>
</div><p>The EV transition is still in its early innings, and it will take years, if not decades, for this megatrend to fully unfold. As the leader in this industry, Tesla is favorably positioned to grow its sales as electric vehicles gradually replace cars with internal combustion engines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电动汽车的转型仍处于初期阶段，这一大趋势的完全展开可能需要数年甚至数十年。作为该行业的领导者，特斯拉在电动汽车逐渐取代内燃机汽车的过程中，处于有利的位置来增长销售。</p>
</div><p>Besides, Tesla is working hard to reduce its production cost over time so that it can price its cars more affordably and gain market share. To this end, its average cost of goods sold per car fell to a new low in the fourth quarter of 2024, and could fall even more, leveraging Tesla's growing operating leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，特斯拉正在努力降低生产成本，以便能够以更实惠的价格销售汽车并获得市场份额。为此，其每辆车的平均销售成本在 2024 年第四季度降至新低，并可能进一步下降，利用特斯拉日益增长的运营杠杆。</p>
</div><p>Beyond its bread and butter selling electric cars, Tesla has positioned itself to ride multiple megatrends that could be worth even more than the EV industry over time. Take autonomous driving, for example. Tesla aims to lead the robotaxi industry. It plans to start producing its robotaxis in 2026 in its gigafactory in Texas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了主要销售电动汽车外，特斯拉还在多个大趋势中占据了有利地位，这些趋势的潜在价值可能超过电动汽车行业。以自动驾驶为例，特斯拉旨在引领机器人出租车行业。它计划在 2026 年开始在德克萨斯州的超级工厂生产机器人出租车。</p>
</div><p>Another area that could see a significant boost in the coming years is renewable energy. Tesla has products ranging from batteries to solar panels and charging networks. And let's not forget Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot that could change how we live and work. Altogether, these young ventures have potential addressable markets worth hundreds of billions (even trillions) of dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个在未来几年可能会显著增长的领域是可再生能源。特斯拉的产品涵盖从电池到太阳能电池板和充电网络的多个领域。我们还不能忘记 Optimus，特斯拉的人形机器人，它可能会改变我们的生活和工作方式。总的来说，这些年轻的业务有潜在的可寻址市场，价值数百亿（甚至数万亿）美元。</p>
</div><p>Of course, this assumes that Tesla will not lose its focus and will continue to execute in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这假设特斯拉不会失去焦点，并将在未来几年继续执行。</p>
</div><h2>The stock is pricey</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票价格昂贵</h2>
</div><p>One of the biggest problems investors face when buying Tesla stock is its valuation. Tesla's stock has almost always been priced at rich multiples thanks to investors' optimism about its prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在购买特斯拉股票时面临的最大问题之一是其估值。由于投资者对其前景的乐观，特斯拉的股票几乎总是以高倍数定价。</p>
</div><p>But with its recent decline in stock price, is Tesla finally trading at a reasonable valuation? Let's look at two simple ratios: price to sales (P/S) and price to earnings (P/E).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但随着其股票价格的近期下跌，特斯拉是否终于以合理的估值交易？让我们来看两个简单的比率：市销率（P/S）和市盈率（P/E）。</p>
</div><p>As of this writing, the stock trades at P/S and P/E ratios of 8.6 and 118, respectively. For perspective, Google parent <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s P/S and P/E ratios are 6.2 and 20. So while Tesla's stock has declined massively, it is still pricey considering the bulk of its revenue is from selling cars, yet it trades at multiples higher than those of a leading tech giant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，该股的市销率和市盈率分别为 8.6 和 118。作为对比，谷歌母公司 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的市销率和市盈率分别为 6.2 和 20。因此，尽管特斯拉的股票大幅下跌，但考虑到其大部分收入来自汽车销售，它的估值仍然昂贵，且其倍数高于一家领先科技巨头的倍数。</p>
</div><p>In other words, investors have priced many of Tesla's yet-to-materialize prospects into the stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，投资者已经将特斯拉尚未实现的许多前景计入了股价。</p>
</div><h2>What it means for investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这对投资者意味着什么</h2>
</div><p>Tesla remains one of the most exciting yet polarizing stocks in the market. The long-term potential in EVs, autonomous driving, and energy solutions is undeniable. Still, the company's near-term challenges -- from weak financial performance to leadership concerns and political controversies -- are equally significant.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉仍然是市场上最令人兴奋但又极具争议的股票之一。电动汽车、自动驾驶和能源解决方案的长期潜力是不可否认的。然而，公司的短期挑战——从疲软的财务表现到领导层担忧和政治争议——同样显著。</p>
</div><p>At its current valuation, Tesla still demands a premium. So, while the stock's sharp decline may tempt investors looking for a bargain, the risks remain high, especially given growing competition and execution uncertainties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前的估值下，特斯拉仍然要求溢价。因此，尽管股票的急剧下跌可能会吸引寻求便宜货的投资者，但风险依然很高，尤其是在竞争加剧和执行不确定性增加的情况下。</p>
</div><p>Except for those with high-risk appetites, investors should avoid the stock for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非是高风险偏好的投资者，否则目前应避免购买该股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Is Down by 50%. Time to Buy?

- 特斯拉股价从 2024 年 12 月的高点 $488 回落至 $238。  
- 马斯克的政治参与和财务表现不佳影响了销售。  
- 尽管长期前景乐观，短期风险仍高，投资者应谨慎。

特斯拉股票已经下跌了 50%。现在是买入的好时机吗？