<p>对于 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 1.29%) 的股票来说，今年的开局并不理想。由于投资者对电动车（EV）增长故事的信心减弱，股价年初至今下跌了 16%。该公司仍处于早期阶段，费用高昂，盈利仍然相对遥远。</p>
<p>人们可能会认为一些投资者会选择像 <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.69%) 这样的盈利电动车制造商。然而，自年初以来，特斯拉的股价下跌幅度是前者的两倍。但特斯拉的故事更为庞大。到目前为止，其股价在 2025 年下跌了 42%，这发生在去年 11 月美国选举后的一次巨大的上涨之后。</p>
<p>希望在仍在增长的电动车行业中获得投资机会的投资者，现在面临一个有趣的选择。拥有 Rivian 这样强大且不断增长的品牌以及高长期潜力是否有意义？还是应该基于特斯拉现有的盈利能力和超越当前电动车系列的前景，趁机买入特斯拉的股票？</p>
<h2>电动车、人工智能及更多</h2>
<p>特斯拉的投资者一直在关注现有电动车销售之外的领域。即使在这家电动车制造商刚开始大规模销售时，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也大胆预测到 2030 年公司将每年生产 2000 万辆汽车。随着竞争加剧和电动车市场渗透速度低于预期，马斯克已经对这一说法有所收敛。</p>
<p>但投资者对特斯拉股票的估值曾高得离谱，似乎假设马斯克的电动车销售预测会实现。现在，该公司拥有一个稳定且盈利的电动车业务。即使在被认为是失望的一年，特斯拉仍然创造了超过 70 亿美元的净收入和 36 亿美元的自由现金流。2024 年末，特斯拉的现金和投资总额达到了 366 亿美元。没有人能否认该公司迄今为止的成功。</p>
<p>特斯拉不仅仅是一家电动车公司。其能源存储业务在去年创下了最高的毛利润。它正在大力投资人工智能（AI）基础设施。公司计划利用这些投资开发自动驾驶电动车出租车业务以及人形机器人愿景。特斯拉去年的投资使得可用于 AI 训练的计算能力增加了五倍。</p>
<h2>比单纯的商业更复杂</h2>
<p>然而，投资特斯拉变得更加复杂。马斯克可能因其进入政治而疏远了一部分特斯拉的客户基础和潜在市场。关税的实施和潜在的贸易战也可能对业务产生负面影响。投资者必须考虑所有风险，包括中国可能对特斯拉和马斯克进行报复的潜在风险。特斯拉在上海的工厂是其最大的工厂，而中国市场对该业务至关重要。</p>
<p>说到风险，股票的估值仍然是一个重大风险。即使在股价从 12 月约 480 美元的高点暴跌近 50% 之后，最近的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仍然高达 90。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1MTUvcml2aWFuLXIyLXN1di5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1MTUvcml2aWFuLXIyLXN1di5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Rivian Automotive。</p>
<h2>Rivian 有其宏伟的愿景</h2>
<p>Rivian 尚未盈利。这是投资者面临的最大风险之一。将车辆制造规模提升到能够产生利润的水平需要大量资本。而 Rivian 在过去几年中一直在亏损。</p>
<p>尽管它在第四季度实现了首个毛利润，但仍预计 2025 年将处于亏损状态。管理层的指导预计全年调整后的 EBITDA 亏损将在 17 亿至 19 亿美元之间。相比之下，去年交付了约 51,500 辆汽车，亏损约 27 亿美元。</p>
<p>但 Rivian 也有利好的消息。该公司在 2024 年末拥有 77 亿美元的现金及现金等价物。今年晚些时候，它将开始生产下一代 R2 SUV，首次扩展其车型阵容。Rivian 计划推出一个名为 R3 的更小版本。两者预计将更具价格竞争力，可能吸引更广泛的消费者市场。</p>
<h2>两只股票都有潜力</h2>
<p>特斯拉和 Rivian 各自对投资者有独特的吸引力和风险。特斯拉拥有一个稳定且盈利的业务。但在其股票估值下，它需要其自动驾驶技术获得监管机构和客户的认可。其能源存储业务也需要继续增长——而这一切都发生在埃隆·马斯克日益成为一个两极分化的人物之际。</p>
<p>Rivian 面临的风险更大。它已经建立了一个成功的品牌，但销售量远未达到所需的水平。R2 及后续的 R3 必须引导公司走向盈利。</p>
<p>我同时持有这两只股票，因为我认为每家公司都有实现显著长期成功的潜力。然而，我的持股比例与每个业务面临的风险相称。希望在这两只电动车股票之间做出选择的投资者需要权衡这些风险与每个公司的潜在长期成功。</p>

特斯拉

RIVN

<p>Rivian Automotive (RIVN) 的股票今年迄今已下跌 16%，而特斯拉 (TSLA) 则下降了 42%。Rivian 仍处于早期阶段，费用高且没有利润，但拥有 77 亿美元的现金，并计划推出新车型。尽管特斯拉盈利且现金流强劲，但面临市场竞争和政治问题的风险。这两家公司都提供独特的投资机会，特斯拉的业务已成熟，而 Rivian 则具有增长潜力。投资者的决策取决于平衡每家电动车制造商的风险和长期前景</p>

<p>It hasn't been a great start to the year for <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 1.29%) stock. Shares are down 16% year to date as investors' faith in the electric vehicle (EV) growth story dwindles. The company itself is still in its early stages when expenses remain high and earning a profit is still relatively far out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 1.29%) 的股票来说，今年的开局并不理想。由于投资者对电动车（EV）增长故事的信心减弱，股价年初至今下跌了 16%。该公司仍处于早期阶段，费用高昂，盈利仍然相对遥远。</p>
</div><p>One would think some of those investors would instead seek a profitable EV maker like <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.69%). Yet Tesla stock has fallen twice as far since the start of the year. But Tesla stock has a much bigger story. And its 42% drop so far in 2025 came after a monumental run higher after the U.S. election in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们可能会认为一些投资者会选择像 <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.69%) 这样的盈利电动车制造商。然而，自年初以来，特斯拉的股价下跌幅度是前者的两倍。但特斯拉的故事更为庞大。到目前为止，其股价在 2025 年下跌了 42%，这发生在去年 11 月美国选举后的一次巨大的上涨之后。</p>
</div><p>Investors who want exposure to a still-growing EV sector now have an interesting decision to ponder. Would it make sense to own Rivian with its strong and growing brand and high long-term potential? Or should one buy the dip in Tesla stock based on its existing profitability and prospects beyond its current EV lineup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希望在仍在增长的电动车行业中获得投资机会的投资者，现在面临一个有趣的选择。拥有 Rivian 这样强大且不断增长的品牌以及高长期潜力是否有意义？还是应该基于特斯拉现有的盈利能力和超越当前电动车系列的前景，趁机买入特斯拉的股票？</p>
</div><h2>Electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and much more</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电动车、人工智能及更多</h2>
</div><p>Tesla investors have always looked beyond the existing electric car sales. Even as the EV maker had just begun ramping up to mass-volume vehicle sales, CEO Elon Musk boldly predicted the company would be producing 20 million vehicles annually by 2030. Musk has since backed off from that claim as Tesla's sales growth has slowed amid rising competition and slower-than-expected market penetration for EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的投资者一直在关注现有电动车销售之外的领域。即使在这家电动车制造商刚开始大规模销售时，首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也大胆预测到 2030 年公司将每年生产 2000 万辆汽车。随着竞争加剧和电动车市场渗透速度低于预期，马斯克已经对这一说法有所收敛。</p>
</div><p>But investors were valuing Tesla shares at lofty levels that seemed to assume Musk's EV sales predictions would come to fruition. Now the company has a steady and profitable EV business. Even in what was considered a disappointing year, Tesla generated more than $7 billion in net income and $3.6 billion in free cash flow. It ended 2024 with $36.6 billion in cash and investments. No one can argue that the company hasn't been successful thus far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投资者对特斯拉股票的估值曾高得离谱，似乎假设马斯克的电动车销售预测会实现。现在，该公司拥有一个稳定且盈利的电动车业务。即使在被认为是失望的一年，特斯拉仍然创造了超过 70 亿美元的净收入和 36 亿美元的自由现金流。2024 年末，特斯拉的现金和投资总额达到了 366 亿美元。没有人能否认该公司迄今为止的成功。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is more than an electric car company, too. Its energy storage business had a record year last year with its highest-ever gross profit. It is heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The company plans to use that to develop a self-driving EV taxi business and for its humanoid robotics aspirations. Tesla's investments last year quintupled the compute power available for AI training.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉不仅仅是一家电动车公司。其能源存储业务在去年创下了最高的毛利润。它正在大力投资人工智能（AI）基础设施。公司计划利用这些投资开发自动驾驶电动车出租车业务以及人形机器人愿景。特斯拉去年的投资使得可用于 AI 训练的计算能力增加了五倍。</p>
</div><h2>More complex than just the business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比单纯的商业更复杂</h2>
</div><p>Investing in Tesla has gotten more complicated, though. Musk has potentially alienated some of Tesla's customer base and potential market with his entry into politics. The implementation of tariffs and a potential trade war also could negatively impact the business. Investors have to consider all risks, including the potential for China to retaliate against Tesla and Musk. Tesla's Shanghai plant is its biggest and the Chinese market is important to the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资特斯拉变得更加复杂。马斯克可能因其进入政治而疏远了一部分特斯拉的客户基础和潜在市场。关税的实施和潜在的贸易战也可能对业务产生负面影响。投资者必须考虑所有风险，包括中国可能对特斯拉和马斯克进行报复的潜在风险。特斯拉在上海的工厂是其最大的工厂，而中国市场对该业务至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of risks, the stock's valuation remains a big one. The recent forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 90 even after the stock plunged nearly 50% from a December high of about $480 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>说到风险，股票的估值仍然是一个重大风险。即使在股价从 12 月约 480 美元的高点暴跌近 50% 之后，最近的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仍然高达 90。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1MTUvcml2aWFuLXIyLXN1di5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809515%2Frivian-r2-suv.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Rivian Automotive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Rivian Automotive。</p>
</div><h2>Rivian has its own lofty aspirations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 有其宏伟的愿景</h2>
</div><p>Rivian doesn't make money yet. That's one of the biggest risks for investors. Ramping up vehicle manufacturing to a scale that can generate profits takes a lot of capital. And Rivian has been bleeding money for several years now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 尚未盈利。这是投资者面临的最大风险之一。将车辆制造规模提升到能够产生利润的水平需要大量资本。而 Rivian 在过去几年中一直在亏损。</p>
</div><p>While it did achieve its first gross profit in the fourth quarter, it still expects 2025 to be in the red. Management's guidance calls for an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion for the full year. That compares to about $2.7 billion last year after delivering about 51,500 vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管它在第四季度实现了首个毛利润，但仍预计 2025 年将处于亏损状态。管理层的指导预计全年调整后的 EBITDA 亏损将在 17 亿至 19 亿美元之间。相比之下，去年交付了约 51,500 辆汽车，亏损约 27 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>But there's favorable news for Rivian as well. the company ended 2024 with $7.7 billion in cash and equivalents. It will begin to produce its next-generation R2 SUV later this year to expand its vehicle lineup for the first time. Rivian plans a smaller version called the R3 to follow. Both are expected to be more affordable and could be attractive to a more mass market of consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Rivian 也有利好的消息。该公司在 2024 年末拥有 77 亿美元的现金及现金等价物。今年晚些时候，它将开始生产下一代 R2 SUV，首次扩展其车型阵容。Rivian 计划推出一个名为 R3 的更小版本。两者预计将更具价格竞争力，可能吸引更广泛的消费者市场。</p>
</div><h2>Both stocks have potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两只股票都有潜力</h2>
</div><p>Tesla and Rivian each have unique attractions and risks for investors. Tesla has a steady and profitable business. But at its stock valuation, it needs its self-driving technology to be accepted by regulators and customers. Its energy storage business also needs to continue to grow -- and all while Elon Musk is increasingly becoming a polarizing figure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉和 Rivian 各自对投资者有独特的吸引力和风险。特斯拉拥有一个稳定且盈利的业务。但在其股票估值下，它需要其自动驾驶技术获得监管机构和客户的认可。其能源存储业务也需要继续增长——而这一切都发生在埃隆·马斯克日益成为一个两极分化的人物之际。</p>
</div><p>There's even more risk with Rivian. It has developed a successful brand, but not at a volume of sales close to what it needs to attain. The R2 and subsequent R3 must steer the company to profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 面临的风险更大。它已经建立了一个成功的品牌，但销售量远未达到所需的水平。R2 及后续的 R3 必须引导公司走向盈利。</p>
</div><p>I own both stocks, because I think each company has the potential for significant long-term success. However, I own them at an allocation level that is commensurate to the risk each business is exposed to. Investors wanting to decide between these two EV stocks need to balance those risks against the potential long-term success of each.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同时持有这两只股票，因为我认为每家公司都有实现显著长期成功的潜力。然而，我的持股比例与每个业务面临的风险相称。希望在这两只电动车股票之间做出选择的投资者需要权衡这些风险与每个公司的潜在长期成功。</p>
</div>

Better EV Stock: Rivian vs. Tesla

- Rivian 股票年初下跌 16%，投资者对电动车增长信心减弱。  
- 特斯拉股票在 2025 年已下跌 42%，但仍有稳定盈利。  
- 投资者需权衡 Rivian 和特斯拉的风险与长期潜力。

哪只电动汽车股票更好：Rivian 与特斯拉