<p>在一月份，我警告投资者在购买 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) 股票时要谨慎。该科技股的估值几乎没有出错的空间。尽管业务似乎运转良好，我得出结论认为英伟达的股票可能不是一个好的投资，因为其高昂的估值已经预期了未来几年的强劲增长。</p>
<p>但现在情况如何？截至本文撰写时，自那篇文章发布以来，股价已下跌约 13%。股票的显著下跌是否使其变得有吸引力？不幸的是，英伟达股票的估值似乎仍然过高。</p>
<h2>英伟达的成功之处</h2>
<p>英伟达持续取得成功的一点是增长。在公司最近的一个季度，即 2025 财年的第四季度，销售和利润飙升。英伟达的收入大幅增长，主要得益于对其数据中心图形处理单元（GPU）日益增长的需求，这些产品在人工智能（AI）加速器市场中占据主导地位。其财务第四季度的收入同比激增 78%，达到 351 亿美元，而英伟达的总财年收入则以令人印象深刻的 114% 增长，达到了 1305 亿美元。</p>
<p>如此强劲的增长推动了盈利。英伟达在其财务第四季度的净收入同比增长 82%，达到 220.9 亿美元，或每股 0.89 美元。</p>
<h2>两大风险</h2>
<p>截至本文撰写时，股票的市盈率约为 40 倍，与公司最近的快速增长相比，似乎并不算昂贵。但仔细观察其内部情况，显示出两个大风险，显然值得更低的估值。</p>
<p>首先，随着英伟达的增长，其扩张速度似乎正在放缓。例如，该公司的第四季度同比收入增长率为 78%，低于三个月前的 94% 增长和一年前的 265%。</p>
<p>另一个问题是毛利率。随着竞争加剧以及人工智能芯片的供应逐渐接近需求，成本可能会上升，因为英伟达在努力保持其技术领导地位。此外，随着市场竞争的加剧，价格可能会下降。为此，英伟达最近报告的季度毛利率从一年前的 76% 收缩至 73%。</p>
<p>如果英伟达继续面临收入放缓和毛利率收窄的双重压力，公司每股收益的增长率可能会迅速下降。</p>
<h2>保持观望</h2>
<p>以 40 倍的市盈率，英伟达的估值假设不仅在未来几年内，而且在未来十年内都能实现卓越的执行力——这可能会发生，但并不保证。由于像英伟达这样的科技公司本质上难以预测，因此等待股价下跌到足以更有意义地反映这些风险的水平是明智的。英伟达的增长虽然仍然令人印象深刻，但正在放缓。随着人工智能芯片竞争的加剧，公司定价能力可能会减弱，进一步对其毛利率施加压力。如果收入增长继续放缓，毛利率进一步收缩，那么今天的市盈率可能会显得更加紧张。</p>
<p>当然，还值得考虑的是，英伟达当前的成功在多大程度上与异常火热的人工智能市场相关。目前，人工智能芯片的需求大大超过供应，使得英伟达能够占据主导地位。但这种动态不会永远持续。其他半导体巨头正在迎头赶上（尽管他们仍有很长的路要走），随着他们的追赶，定价和盈利能力的格局可能会发生剧烈变化。</p>
<p>这并不是说英伟达不是一家杰出的公司。它确实是一家杰出的公司。问题在于，今天的价格是否是一个好的_投资_。不幸的是，我并不相信在这个价格下风险与回报的权衡是有吸引力的。对于寻求人工智能投资的投资者来说，等待一个更好的入场点——或者寻找更合理估值的替代方案——可能是更明智的选择。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票自一月份以来下跌了 13%，引发了对其估值的质疑。尽管增长令人印象深刻，第四季度收入同比增长 78%，达到 351 亿美元，但风险依然存在。公司的扩张速度正在放缓，毛利率从 76% 收缩至 73%。以 40 倍的市盈率计算，该股票的估值假设其将继续强劲表现，但这一点并不确定。建议投资者等待更好的入场时机或考虑替代方案，因为当前的风险与收益的权衡似乎不具吸引力</p>

<p>In January, I warned investors to tread carefully when it came to <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) shares. The tech stock's valuation left almost no room for error. Even though the business is seeming to fire on all cylinders, I concluded that Nvidia shares might not be a great investment since its premium valuation is already pricing in strong growth for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一月份，我警告投资者在购买 <strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) 股票时要谨慎。该科技股的估值几乎没有出错的空间。尽管业务似乎运转良好，我得出结论认为英伟达的股票可能不是一个好的投资，因为其高昂的估值已经预期了未来几年的强劲增长。</p>
</div><p>But what about now? As of this writing, shares have fallen about 13% since that article was published. Has the stock's meaningful haircut made shares attractive? Unfortunately, Nvidia stock's valuation arguably still seems too rich.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在情况如何？截至本文撰写时，自那篇文章发布以来，股价已下跌约 13%。股票的显著下跌是否使其变得有吸引力？不幸的是，英伟达股票的估值似乎仍然过高。</p>
</div><h2>What Nvidia is doing right</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的成功之处</h2>
</div><p>One thing Nvidia continues to get right is growth. Sales and profits soared in the company's most recent quarter, its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Revenue is booming for Nvidia, largely fueled by the increasing demand for its data center graphics processing units (GPUs), which dominate the AI (artificial intelligence) accelerator market. Its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue surged 78% year over year to reach $35.1 billion, while Nvidia's total fiscal-year revenue increased by an impressive 114%, hitting $130.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达持续取得成功的一点是增长。在公司最近的一个季度，即 2025 财年的第四季度，销售和利润飙升。英伟达的收入大幅增长，主要得益于对其数据中心图形处理单元（GPU）日益增长的需求，这些产品在人工智能（AI）加速器市场中占据主导地位。其财务第四季度的收入同比激增 78%，达到 351 亿美元，而英伟达的总财年收入则以令人印象深刻的 114% 增长，达到了 1305 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Such robust growth has bolstered earnings. Nvidia saw its net income jump 82% year over year for its fiscal fourth quarter to $22.09 billion, or $0.89.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此强劲的增长推动了盈利。英伟达在其财务第四季度的净收入同比增长 82%，达到 220.9 亿美元，或每股 0.89 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Two big risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两大风险</h2>
</div><p>With the stock priced at about 40 times earnings as of this writing, shares may not seem that expensive when viewed next to the company's recent torrid growth. But a closer look under the hood shows two big risks that arguably merit a lower valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至本文撰写时，股票的市盈率约为 40 倍，与公司最近的快速增长相比，似乎并不算昂贵。但仔细观察其内部情况，显示出两个大风险，显然值得更低的估值。</p>
</div><p>First of all, as Nvidia grows, the pace of its expansion appears to be decelerating. The company's fourth-quarter year-over-year revenue growth rate of 78%, for instance, is down from 94% growth in the quarter ended three months earlier and 265% in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，随着英伟达的增长，其扩张速度似乎正在放缓。例如，该公司的第四季度同比收入增长率为 78%，低于三个月前的 94% 增长和一年前的 265%。</p>
</div><p>Another issue is gross profit margin. As competition intensifies and as supply of AI chips closes in on demand, costs may rise as Nvidia fights to maintain its technical leadership. Furthermore, prices could come down as price becomes more important in an increasingly competitive marketplace. To this end, Nvidia's gross profit margin in its most recently reported quarter contracted from 76% in the year-ago period to 73%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个问题是毛利率。随着竞争加剧以及人工智能芯片的供应逐渐接近需求，成本可能会上升，因为英伟达在努力保持其技术领导地位。此外，随着市场竞争的加剧，价格可能会下降。为此，英伟达最近报告的季度毛利率从一年前的 76% 收缩至 73%。</p>
</div><p>If Nvidia continues to face slowing revenue and narrowing margins simultaneously, the company's earnings-per-share growth rates could come down very fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果英伟达继续面临收入放缓和毛利率收窄的双重压力，公司每股收益的增长率可能会迅速下降。</p>
</div><h2>Stay on the sidelines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保持观望</h2>
</div><p>At 40 times earnings, Nvidia's valuation assumes spectacular execution not just for the next few years but for the next decade -- something that could happen but is not guaranteed. Since technology companies like Nvidia are inherently difficult to predict, it makes sense to wait to see if shares drop to a price low enough to price in some of these risks more meaningfully. Nvidia's growth, while still impressive, is slowing. And with rising competition in AI chips, the company's pricing power could weaken, putting additional pressure on its margins. If revenue growth keeps decelerating and margins contract further, today's multiple could start to look even more stretched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 40 倍的市盈率，英伟达的估值假设不仅在未来几年内，而且在未来十年内都能实现卓越的执行力——这可能会发生，但并不保证。由于像英伟达这样的科技公司本质上难以预测，因此等待股价下跌到足以更有意义地反映这些风险的水平是明智的。英伟达的增长虽然仍然令人印象深刻，但正在放缓。随着人工智能芯片竞争的加剧，公司定价能力可能会减弱，进一步对其毛利率施加压力。如果收入增长继续放缓，毛利率进一步收缩，那么今天的市盈率可能会显得更加紧张。</p>
</div><p>Of course, it's also worth considering how much of Nvidia's current success is tied to an unusually hot AI market. Right now, demand for AI chips is largely outpacing supply, allowing Nvidia to dominate. But that dynamic won't last forever. Other semiconductor giants are catching up (although they still have a long way to go), and as they do, the pricing and profitability landscape could shift dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，还值得考虑的是，英伟达当前的成功在多大程度上与异常火热的人工智能市场相关。目前，人工智能芯片的需求大大超过供应，使得英伟达能够占据主导地位。但这种动态不会永远持续。其他半导体巨头正在迎头赶上（尽管他们仍有很长的路要走），随着他们的追赶，定价和盈利能力的格局可能会发生剧烈变化。</p>
</div><p>None of this is to say Nvidia isn't an outstanding company. It is. The question is whether it's a good <em>investment</em> at today's price. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced the risk-reward trade-off is attractive at this price. For investors looking for AI exposure, waiting for a better entry point -- or seeking alternatives at more reasonable valuation -- could be the smarter move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不是说英伟达不是一家杰出的公司。它确实是一家杰出的公司。问题在于，今天的价格是否是一个好的_投资_。不幸的是，我并不相信在这个价格下风险与回报的权衡是有吸引力的。对于寻求人工智能投资的投资者来说，等待一个更好的入场点——或者寻找更合理估值的替代方案——可能是更明智的选择。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Has Taken a Beating. Buy the Dip?

- Nvidia 第四季度营收同比增长 78%，达到 351 亿美元，净利润增长 82% 至 220.9 亿美元。  
- 但公司面临增长放缓和毛利率收窄的风险，估值仍显高。  
- 投资者应考虑等待更合适的入场时机。  

英伟达股票遭受重创，现在是逢低买入的好时机吗？