<p><strong>达乐</strong>(DG 2.52%) 近年来在股市上表现不佳，因为该公司失去了市场份额给 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，并在消费可自由支配支出疲软的环境中挣扎。在过去三年中，达乐的股价下跌了 63%，而大盘则大幅上涨。</p>
<p>然而，有迹象表明达乐已经触底。2024 年对这家折扣零售商来说无疑是艰难的一年，运营收入因经济挑战、增加的降价、库存损失增加以及销售组合的不利变化而在 2024 年暴跌 30%，降至 17 亿美元。</p>
<p>上周该公司的第四季度财报总体上令人失望，严重低于预期的净利润估计，其每股收益（EPS）指引也低于市场共识。</p>
<p>尽管如此，股价在财报发布后实际上上涨了 7%，因为该 EPS 指引仍然预示着今年的增长，公司提供的长期指引让投资者对公司恢复稳定增长充满信心。</p>
<p>此外，达乐似乎在最近的市场修正中逆势而上，尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 下跌了大约 10%，但该股在过去一个月中实际上上涨了 9%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE3MTIvc3RvcmUtYWlzbGUtNS1iZWxvdy1kb2xsYXItZ2VuZXJhbC1kb2xsYXItdHJlZS0xMjAxeDc3NS02YWQwOWI0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE3MTIvc3RvcmUtYWlzbGUtNS1iZWxvdy1kb2xsYXItZ2VuZXJhbC1kb2xsYXItdHJlZS0xMjAxeDc3NS02YWQwOWI0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>达乐的转型计划</h2>
<p>该零售商已经宣布了其 “回归基础” 计划，重点改善缺货情况，确保结账区域有足够的员工，并通过关闭一些临时存储设施来简化供应链。</p>
<p>在其第四季度财报中，达乐还分享了一项新的房地产优化计划，表示计划关闭 96 家达乐门店和 45 家 Popshelf 门店（其家居用品子品牌），并在关闭中计提 2.32 亿美元的费用。</p>
<p>尽管这听起来像是公司的一个挫折，但关闭表现不佳的门店应该会使基础业务更具盈利能力，而达乐仍计划积极开设新店。2025 年，它计划在美国开设 575 家新店，在墨西哥开设 15 家新店，并对 4250 家门店进行改造，其中 2250 家在其提升项目下进行，该项目旨在提升客户体验，但并不是全面改造。</p>
<p>该公司还提供了长期指引，表示未来五年同店销售将每年增长 2% 至 3%，并从明年开始每年增加 10% 的每股收益（EPS）。它还设想到 2028 年至 2029 年恢复 6% 至 7% 的调整后运营利润率。</p>
<p>如果达乐能够实现这些数字，那么该股看起来将是一个轻松的赢家，因为目前该公司的市盈率为 16，远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。</p>
<h2>投资者需要耐心</h2>
<p>尽管有恢复计划，但宏观经济环境依然充满挑战，管理层表示今年不预期宏观经济环境会有所改善，“特别是对于我们的核心客户。”</p>
<p>达乐确实面临挑战，但该公司在提供稳定增长方面有着长期的良好记录，并在小型折扣零售领域占据主导地位。该公司是美国最大的零售品牌，拥有超过 20,000 家门店，这再次证明了其成功。</p>
<p>总体而言，达乐是一家经过验证的零售领导者，目前的交易价格低于标准普尔 500 指数，其业绩已经开始好转，指引显示 2025 年盈利增长的预期。在估值压缩、投资者担心贸易战加剧的时刻，达乐专注于食品等必需品以及其稳定的增长计划，应该使其在未来五年内成为市场的赢家。</p>

达乐

<p>达乐（Dollar General，DG）近年来面临困境，股价下跌了 63%，但复苏的迹象正在显现。尽管 2024 年面临挑战，股价在一份令人失望的财报发布后上涨了 7%，这表明投资者信心回升。公司计划关闭表现不佳的门店，同时在 2025 年开设 575 家新店，并目标实现每年 2-3% 的同店销售增长和 10% 的每股收益增长。当前达乐的市盈率为 16，定位为潜在的市场领跑者，专注于经济挑战中的必需品</p>

<p><strong>Dollar General</strong>(DG 2.52%) has been a laggard on the stock market in recent years as the company has lost market share to <strong>Walmart</strong> and struggled in an environment with weak consumer discretionary spending. Over the last three years, Dollar General's stock is down 63% while the broad market has surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>达乐</strong>(DG 2.52%) 近年来在股市上表现不佳，因为该公司失去了市场份额给 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，并在消费可自由支配支出疲软的环境中挣扎。在过去三年中，达乐的股价下跌了 63%，而大盘则大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>However, there are signs that Dollar General has hit rock bottom. 2024 was no doubt a rough year for the discount retailer as operating income plunged 30% in 2024 to $1.7 billion due to the economic challenges as well as increased markdowns, increased inventory damage, and an unfavorable shift in sales mix.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有迹象表明达乐已经触底。2024 年对这家折扣零售商来说无疑是艰难的一年，运营收入因经济挑战、增加的降价、库存损失增加以及销售组合的不利变化而在 2024 年暴跌 30%，降至 17 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>The company's fourth-quarter earnings report last week was generally dismal as it badly missed bottom-line estimates, and its earnings-per-share (EPS) guidance was also below the consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周该公司的第四季度财报总体上令人失望，严重低于预期的净利润估计，其每股收益（EPS）指引也低于市场共识。</p>
</div><p>In spite of that, the stock actually jumped 7% on the report as that EPS guidance still called for growth this year, and the company offered longer-term guidance that gave investors confidence that the company would return to steady growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，股价在财报发布后实际上上涨了 7%，因为该 EPS 指引仍然预示着今年的增长，公司提供的长期指引让投资者对公司恢复稳定增长充满信心。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Dollar General seems to have bucked the broader stock market sell-off during the recent correction as the stock is actually up 9% over the last month even as the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is down roughly 10%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，达乐似乎在最近的市场修正中逆势而上，尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 下跌了大约 10%，但该股在过去一个月中实际上上涨了 9%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE3MTIvc3RvcmUtYWlzbGUtNS1iZWxvdy1kb2xsYXItZ2VuZXJhbC1kb2xsYXItdHJlZS0xMjAxeDc3NS02YWQwOWI0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811712%2Fstore-aisle-5-below-dollar-general-dollar-tree-1201x775-6ad09b4.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Dollar General's turnaround plan</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>达乐的转型计划</h2>
</div><p>The retailer had already announced its &#34;Back to Basics&#34; plan, which includes a focus on improving out-of-stocks, making sure the checkout area is adequately staffed, and streamlining its supply chain by closing some temporary storage facilities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该零售商已经宣布了其 “回归基础” 计划，重点改善缺货情况，确保结账区域有足够的员工，并通过关闭一些临时存储设施来简化供应链。</p>
</div><p>In its Q4 earnings report, Dollar General also shared a new real estate optimization plan, saying it planned to close 96 Dollar General stores and 45 Popshelf stores (its home goods sub brand), taking a charge of $232 million on the closures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在其第四季度财报中，达乐还分享了一项新的房地产优化计划，表示计划关闭 96 家达乐门店和 45 家 Popshelf 门店（其家居用品子品牌），并在关闭中计提 2.32 亿美元的费用。</p>
</div><p>Though that may sound like a setback for the company, closing underperforming stores should make the underlying business more profitable, and Dollar General still plans to aggressively open new stores. In 2025 it plans to open 575 new stores in the U.S. and 15 stores in Mexico in addition to remodeling 4,250 stores, including 2,250 under its Project Elevate program, which is designed to enhance the customer experience but is not a full remodel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这听起来像是公司的一个挫折，但关闭表现不佳的门店应该会使基础业务更具盈利能力，而达乐仍计划积极开设新店。2025 年，它计划在美国开设 575 家新店，在墨西哥开设 15 家新店，并对 4250 家门店进行改造，其中 2250 家在其提升项目下进行，该项目旨在提升客户体验，但并不是全面改造。</p>
</div><p>The company also gave long-term guidance, saying it would grow same-store sales by 2% to 3% annually over the next five years and increase EPS by 10% annually starting next year. It also envisions returning to an adjusted operating margin of 6% to 7% by 2028 to 2029.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司还提供了长期指引，表示未来五年同店销售将每年增长 2% 至 3%，并从明年开始每年增加 10% 的每股收益（EPS）。它还设想到 2028 年至 2029 年恢复 6% 至 7% 的调整后运营利润率。</p>
</div><p>If Dollar General can hit those numbers, the stock looks like an easy winner from here as the company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 currently, a substantial discount to the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果达乐能够实现这些数字，那么该股看起来将是一个轻松的赢家，因为目前该公司的市盈率为 16，远低于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>。</p>
</div><h2>Investors will have to be patient</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者需要耐心</h2>
</div><p>Despite the recovery plan, the macroeconomic landscape remains challenging, and management said it was not anticipating any improvement in the macroeconomic environment this year, &#34;particularly for our core customer.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管有恢复计划，但宏观经济环境依然充满挑战，管理层表示今年不预期宏观经济环境会有所改善，“特别是对于我们的核心客户。”</p>
</div><p>Dollar General does face challenges, but the company has a long-term track record of delivering steady growth and dominates its niche in small-footprint discount retail. The company is the country's largest retail banner with more than 20,000 stores in the U.S., another testament to its success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>达乐确实面临挑战，但该公司在提供稳定增长方面有着长期的良好记录，并在小型折扣零售领域占据主导地位。该公司是美国最大的零售品牌，拥有超过 20,000 家门店，这再次证明了其成功。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Dollar General is a proven retail leader that's trading at a discount to the S&amp;P 500, and its performance is already turning around as its guidance calling for 2025 earnings growth indicates. At a time when valuations are compressing, and investors are worried about an intensifying trade war, Dollar General's focus on necessities like groceries and its steady growth plan should make it a market-beater over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，达乐是一家经过验证的零售领导者，目前的交易价格低于标准普尔 500 指数，其业绩已经开始好转，指引显示 2025 年盈利增长的预期。在估值压缩、投资者担心贸易战加剧的时刻，达乐专注于食品等必需品以及其稳定的增长计划，应该使其在未来五年内成为市场的赢家。</p>
</div>

预测：达乐将跑赢市场。以下是原因