<p>如果你是 <strong>耐克</strong>(NKE -5.37%) 的投资者，拥有这只股票时感到越来越沮丧也不足为奇。毕竟，它的股价远低于 2021 年 11 月超过 170 美元的高点，并且在过去一年中下跌超过 30%。过去五年，这只股票几乎没有波动，而在最新的财报发布后，其股价再次下跌。</p>
<p>让我们仔细看看耐克最近的财报，看看这家标志性的运动鞋和服装制造商是否有任何复苏的迹象。</p>
<h2>销售持续下滑</h2>
<p>耐克首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔（Elliott Hill）上任不到六个月，面临着一个困难的局面，试图扭转公司的颓势。前首席执行官约翰·多纳霍（John Donahoe）在经营服装品牌方面缺乏经验，忽视了创新，认为公司可以仅仅依靠品牌声誉。他过于依赖经典鞋款系列，包括如 Air Jordan 和 Air Force 1 等品牌。同时，他放弃了批发关系，以便更多地专注于直接销售。</p>
<p>他的计划没有奏效，耐克过度生产了经典品牌，导致公司不得不进行大量促销以清理库存。同时，其其他业务板块缺乏新意。</p>
<p>希尔现在试图通过他的 “立即获胜” 行动计划来扭转已经造成的损害。公司正在努力调整其经典鞋款系列，同时在运动表现类别中转向创新和新鲜感，以引领潮流。它在短期和长期创新方面进行了大量投资，同时希望增加新款式、品类、颜色和材料。</p>
<p>公司还在减少直接渠道的促销活动，试图恢复全价品牌的形象。它还希望与批发合作伙伴建立更好的关系。未来，它将寻求平衡直接销售和批发销售，最初专注于美国、中国和英国以推动增长。</p>
<p>然而，这些变化需要时间才能产生积极影响，并且在短期内会带来一些痛苦，这在耐克的 2023 财年第三季度业绩和指引中得到了反映。</p>
<p>在最近的一个季度，耐克的收入下降了 9%，降至 113 亿美元，耐克品牌的收入也下降了 9%，降至 109 亿美元。耐克直接销售的收入下降更为严重，下降了 12%，降至 47 亿美元。数字销售是下降的主要原因。</p>
<p>中国市场是一个特别薄弱的环节，季度收入下降了 17%，降至 17 亿美元。公司表示，这是它在清理库存方面最为积极的市场。</p>
<p>北美是其最强的地区，销售仅下降了 4%，降至 31 亿美元。与此同时，北美的服装销售表现良好，增长了 7%，但其更大的鞋类业务销售下降了 9%。</p>
<p>为了清理库存，耐克在这个季度不得不进行更大幅度的折扣，这导致其毛利率下降了 330 个基点，降至 41.5%。这导致其每股收益（EPS）下降的速度快于收入下降的速度。每股收益在这个季度暴跌 30%，降至 0.54 美元。</p>
<p>与此同时，分析师预计在 2023 财年第四季度，毛利率将面临更大的压力，受到关税和重组费用的影响，预计该季度将下降 400 个基点到 500 个基点。此外，耐克工厂店的折扣可能会增加，并可能提供更高的批发折扣以帮助清理旧库存。</p>
<p>与此同时，管理层预计 2023 财年第四季度的收入将下降中个位数，受到包括地缘政治不确定性、关税、外汇波动和税收法规等多重不利因素的影响。</p>
<p>此外，公司推动将耐克数字平台定位为全价平台，预计将在未来一年对流量产生负面影响。预计到 2026 财年（截至 2026 年 5 月），数字流量将下降双位数。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwNjYvd29tYW4tc2hvcHBpbmctZm9yLXNuZWFrZXJzLWF0LXN0b3JlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwNjYvd29tYW4tc2hvcHBpbmctZm9yLXNuZWFrZXJzLWF0LXN0b3JlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>何时会出现转机？</h2>
<p>希尔的行动需要一段时间才能见效，在短期到中期内将会因此带来一些痛苦。然而，这些行动是恢复耐克品牌健康、使公司重回正轨所必需的。</p>
<p>根据评论，我的最佳猜测是，耐克至少需要一年时间才能开始看到其行动的成果，并使公司朝着正方向发展，实现积极的销售和改善的毛利率。然而，市场往往是前瞻性的，因此我认为如果耐克能够显示出进展，股价可能会在那之前开始反弹。</p>
<p>因此，虽然我不会急于现在就购买这只股票，但我认为这是你需要关注的股票，因为你可能想密切关注公司的转型。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克的投资者感到沮丧，因为该股票自 2021 年 11 月的峰值以来下跌超过 30%。最近的财报显示，收入下降了 9%，降至 113 亿美元，耐克直销和数字销售均出现显著下滑。新任首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔正在实施 “现在赢” 的计划，以创新和改善与批发合作伙伴的关系，但仍面临挑战，包括地缘政治不确定性和毛利率下降。分析师预测，2024 财年第四季度收入将继续下降，尽管如果有进展，股票可能会反弹，但至少需要一年才能实现潜在的扭转</p>

<p>If you're a <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE -5.37%) investor, it wouldn't be surprising if you had a growing sense of frustration owning the stock. After all, it's well off the highs of over $170 a share it hit back in November 2021, and down more than 30% over the past year. The stock has barely budged the past five years, and its shares were sinking once again after its latest earnings results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是 <strong>耐克</strong>(NKE -5.37%) 的投资者，拥有这只股票时感到越来越沮丧也不足为奇。毕竟，它的股价远低于 2021 年 11 月超过 170 美元的高点，并且在过去一年中下跌超过 30%。过去五年，这只股票几乎没有波动，而在最新的财报发布后，其股价再次下跌。</p>
</div><p>Let's take a closer look at Nike's recent earnings to see if there are any signs of a turnaround in sight for the iconic sneaker and apparel maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们仔细看看耐克最近的财报，看看这家标志性的运动鞋和服装制造商是否有任何复苏的迹象。</p>
</div><h2>Sales continue to decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>销售持续下滑</h2>
</div><p>Nike CEO Elliott Hill has only been on the job for under six months, and finds himself inheriting a difficult situation, looking to turn the company around. Former CEO John Donahoe showed his lack of experience running an apparel brand by eschewing innovation and thinking the company could solely rely on its brand reputation. He leaned heavily into its classic footwear segment, which includes such brands as Air Jordan and Air Force 1. Meanwhile, he shunned wholesale relationships in order to focus more on direct selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克首席执行官埃利奥特·希尔（Elliott Hill）上任不到六个月，面临着一个困难的局面，试图扭转公司的颓势。前首席执行官约翰·多纳霍（John Donahoe）在经营服装品牌方面缺乏经验，忽视了创新，认为公司可以仅仅依靠品牌声誉。他过于依赖经典鞋款系列，包括如 Air Jordan 和 Air Force 1 等品牌。同时，他放弃了批发关系，以便更多地专注于直接销售。</p>
</div><p>His plan didn't work, and Nike overproduced its classic brands, leading the company to become heavily promotional to clear inventory. At the same time, its other segments lacked a sense of newness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的计划没有奏效，耐克过度生产了经典品牌，导致公司不得不进行大量促销以清理库存。同时，其其他业务板块缺乏新意。</p>
</div><p>Hill is now trying to reverse the damage that has been done through his &#34;Win Now&#34; action plan. The company is trying to rightsize its classic footwear segment, while turning toward innovation and freshness in its sports performance category to lead the way. It's investing heavily in both short-term and long-term innovation, while looking to add new models, assortments, colors, and materials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希尔现在试图通过他的 “立即获胜” 行动计划来扭转已经造成的损害。公司正在努力调整其经典鞋款系列，同时在运动表现类别中转向创新和新鲜感，以引领潮流。它在短期和长期创新方面进行了大量投资，同时希望增加新款式、品类、颜色和材料。</p>
</div><p>The company is also pulling back on promotions within its direct channels, instead looking to return to a full-priced brand. It is also looking to develop a better relationship with its wholesale partners. Going forward, it will look to balance direct and wholesale selling, while initially focusing on the U.S., China, and U.K. to drive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司还在减少直接渠道的促销活动，试图恢复全价品牌的形象。它还希望与批发合作伙伴建立更好的关系。未来，它将寻求平衡直接销售和批发销售，最初专注于美国、中国和英国以推动增长。</p>
</div><p>However, these changes will take time to make a positive impact, and in the near term, will cause some pain, which both Nike's fiscal Q3 results and its guidance reflect.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些变化需要时间才能产生积极影响，并且在短期内会带来一些痛苦，这在耐克的 2023 财年第三季度业绩和指引中得到了反映。</p>
</div><p>For its most-recent quarter, Nike saw revenue fall 9% to $11.3 billion, with Nike brand revenue also down 9% to $10.9 billion. Nike Direct revenue dropped even more, down 12% to $4.7 billion. Digital sales led the way lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的一个季度，耐克的收入下降了 9%，降至 113 亿美元，耐克品牌的收入也下降了 9%，降至 109 亿美元。耐克直接销售的收入下降更为严重，下降了 12%，降至 47 亿美元。数字销售是下降的主要原因。</p>
</div><p>The Chinese market was a particular weak spot, with revenue down 17% in the quarter to $1.7 billion. It said this is the market where it has been most proactive in cleaning up its inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国市场是一个特别薄弱的环节，季度收入下降了 17%，降至 17 亿美元。公司表示，这是它在清理库存方面最为积极的市场。</p>
</div><p>North America was its strongest region, with sales down only 4% to $3.1 billion. North American apparel sales, meanwhile, were solid, seeing growth of 7%, but its much larger footwear segment saw sales sag 9%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北美是其最强的地区，销售仅下降了 4%，降至 31 亿美元。与此同时，北美的服装销售表现良好，增长了 7%，但其更大的鞋类业务销售下降了 9%。</p>
</div><p>To clear inventory, Nike also had to discount more heavily in the quarter, which led to a 330-basis-point decline in its gross margin to 41.5%. This led to its earnings per share (EPS) falling faster than its revenue decline. EPS plunged 30% in the quarter to $0.54.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为了清理库存，耐克在这个季度不得不进行更大幅度的折扣，这导致其毛利率下降了 330 个基点，降至 41.5%。这导致其每股收益（EPS）下降的速度快于收入下降的速度。每股收益在这个季度暴跌 30%，降至 0.54 美元。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, analysts expect gross margins see even more pressure in fiscal Q4, hurt by tariffs and restructuring charges, and are looking for a 400-basis-point to 500-basis-point decline for the quarter. In addition, markdowns could increase at Nike factory stores, and will likely provide higher wholesale discounts to help liquidate old inventory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，分析师预计在 2023 财年第四季度，毛利率将面临更大的压力，受到关税和重组费用的影响，预计该季度将下降 400 个基点到 500 个基点。此外，耐克工厂店的折扣可能会增加，并可能提供更高的批发折扣以帮助清理旧库存。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, management expects fiscal Q4 revenue to decline in the mid-teens range, driven by a number of headwinds, including geopolitical uncertainty, tariffs, volatile foreign exchange rates, and tax regulations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，管理层预计 2023 财年第四季度的收入将下降中个位数，受到包括地缘政治不确定性、关税、外汇波动和税收法规等多重不利因素的影响。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the company's push to position Nike Digital as a full-price platform, is expected to have a negative impact on traffic over the coming year. It expects digital traffic to be down double digits in fiscal 2026 (ending May 2026).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，公司推动将耐克数字平台定位为全价平台，预计将在未来一年对流量产生负面影响。预计到 2026 财年（截至 2026 年 5 月），数字流量将下降双位数。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwNjYvd29tYW4tc2hvcHBpbmctZm9yLXNuZWFrZXJzLWF0LXN0b3JlLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812066%2Fwoman-shopping-for-sneakers-at-store.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>When will a turnaround take hold?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>何时会出现转机？</h2>
</div><p>It's going to take a while for Hill's actions to kick in, and in the near to medium term, there will be some pain as a result. However, these actions are necessary to try and restore the health of the Nike brand and get the company back on track.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希尔的行动需要一段时间才能见效，在短期到中期内将会因此带来一些痛苦。然而，这些行动是恢复耐克品牌健康、使公司重回正轨所必需的。</p>
</div><p>My best guess, given the commentary, is that it will take at least a year for Nike to begin to see the fruits of its actions and get the company headed in the right direction with positive sales and improving gross margins. However, the market tends to be forward-looking, so I think the stock could start to rally well ahead of that if it can show signs of progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据评论，我的最佳猜测是，耐克至少需要一年时间才能开始看到其行动的成果，并使公司朝着正方向发展，实现积极的销售和改善的毛利率。然而，市场往往是前瞻性的，因此我认为如果耐克能够显示出进展，股价可能会在那之前开始反弹。</p>
</div><p>As such, while I wouldn't rush to buy the stock right now, I think it is a stock you want on your radar, since you may want to keep a close eye on the company's turnaround.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，虽然我不会急于现在就购买这只股票，但我认为这是你需要关注的股票，因为你可能想密切关注公司的转型。</p>
</div>

耐克投资者的挫折会在近期结束吗？