<p>尽管股市最近出现抛售，但 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.B -1.32%)(BRK.A -1.28%) 的股票却逆势上涨。截至目前，其股价年初至今已上涨超过 15%，并且该股票的交易价格接近历史最高点。</p>
<p>让我们来看看为什么伯克希尔的表现优于市场，以及当前价格是否适合买入该股票。</p>
<h2>充足的资金推动收益</h2>
<p>伯克希尔在市场下跌面前表现强劲的一个重要原因是其建立的巨额现金头寸。该公司基本上充当其首席执行官和著名投资者沃伦·巴菲特的投资工具。伯克希尔是一家拥有多个行业业务的综合企业，但巴菲特特别偏爱保险公司，因为他可以通过保险公司的浮存金获得资金。</p>
<p>浮存金是保险公司从保单持有者那里收取并在索赔支付之前持有的资金。大多数保险公司会将这笔现金投资于债券等固定收益工具以产生收入。然而，巴菲特抛弃了这种典型的保险公司策略，转而投资于高质量的股票。</p>
<p>这在行业中是一种独特的策略，使伯克希尔成为全球市值最大的公司之一。然而，在过去几个季度中，巴菲特对出售股票和积累现金的兴趣远远超过了投资。事实上，去年他仅购买了约 90 亿美元的股票，而出售超过 1430 亿美元。这包括显著减少他在 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>美国银行</strong> 等主要持股的头寸。</p>
<p>结合公司在年度内产生的现金流，这使得伯克希尔在年末的资产负债表上拥有高达 3340 亿美元的现金。在投资行业中，这被称为干粉，基本上是可以用于投资的闲置资金。伯克希尔目前拥有充足的干粉，并且有史以来最伟大的价值投资者之一在掌舵，可以在他认为时机合适时购买股票。</p>
<p>然而，简单的市场修正可能不足以让巴菲特重新开始积极买入股票。他在 2024 年上半年开始减少股票投资，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 等主要市场指数仍高于 2024 年 6 月底的水平。然而，如果任何个别股票变得有吸引力，巴菲特有很多现金可以投入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwMjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwMjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>伯克希尔股票值得买入吗？</h2>
<p>尽管当前的市场环境吸引投资者关注伯克希尔的干粉，但这并不一定意味着该股票在当前价格下是一个好的买入选择。除了在过去一年中减少股票头寸外，巴菲特还决定停止回购伯克希尔股票。</p>
<p>伯克希尔在过去六年中每个季度都持续回购其股票，直到去年第三季度停止。今年没有迹象表明巴菲特回购了任何股票，这将是自 2018 年以来他最长的一段时间没有回购伯克希尔股票。</p>
<p>过去，伯克希尔会根据公司的市净率 (P/B) 来决定是否回购股票。这是一个常用于评估保险公司的指标，代表其价格与其基础资产价值的比较。</p>
<p>巴菲特曾使用 1.1 倍的市净率作为回购伯克希尔股票的阈值，后来将其提高到 1.2 倍。他最终停止使用市净率限制来决定回购，现在只会在他认为伯克希尔股票交易低于其内在价值时回购股票。</p>
<p>目前，伯克希尔股票的市净率超过 1.7 倍，远高于巴菲特曾认为的良好价值水平。其市盈率 (P/E) 在近年来也飙升至高位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 市净率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>伯克希尔被视为一个安全的避风港，巴菲特手中有充足的现金可以在时机合适时开始购买股票。但投资者为等待他采取行动支付了相当高的溢价，我认为这不会很快发生。</p>
<p>我会将伯克希尔视为持有，而不会在当前价格下考虑作为新资金买入。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

<p>伯克希尔哈撒韦的股票年初至今上涨超过 15%，尽管近期市场出现下跌，这主要得益于其 3340 亿美元的巨额现金储备。首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特已将重点从买入股票转向卖出，导致股票回购暂停。目前，伯克希尔的交易价格超过其账面价值的 1.7 倍，被视为避风港，但高估值表明此时可能不是一个好的购买时机。分析师建议持有而不是购买新股</p>

<p>While the stock market has been selling off recently, one stock that has bucked the trend is <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.B -1.32%)(BRK.A -1.28%). Its shares are up more than 15% year to date as of this writing, and the stock is trading near an all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管股市最近出现抛售，但 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.B -1.32%)(BRK.A -1.28%) 的股票却逆势上涨。截至目前，其股价年初至今已上涨超过 15%，并且该股票的交易价格接近历史最高点。</p>
</div><p>Let's look at why Berkshire has outperformed the market and whether the stock is a buy at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们来看看为什么伯克希尔的表现优于市场，以及当前价格是否适合买入该股票。</p>
</div><h2>Dry powder fueling gains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>充足的资金推动收益</h2>
</div><p>One of the big reasons for Berkshire's strong performance in the face of market declines is the huge cash position it has built. The company essentially acts as the investment vehicle for its CEO and famed investor, Warren Buffett. Berkshire is a conglomerate that owns businesses in a variety of sectors, but Buffett is particularly fond of insurance companies, since he gets access to capital through their float.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔在市场下跌面前表现强劲的一个重要原因是其建立的巨额现金头寸。该公司基本上充当其首席执行官和著名投资者沃伦·巴菲特的投资工具。伯克希尔是一家拥有多个行业业务的综合企业，但巴菲特特别偏爱保险公司，因为他可以通过保险公司的浮存金获得资金。</p>
</div><p>Float is simply the money insurance companies collect from policyholders and hold until a claim is paid out. Most insurance companies take this cash and invest it in fixed-income instruments like bonds to generate income. However, Buffett has eschewed this typical insurance company strategy in favor of investing in high-quality stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>浮存金是保险公司从保单持有者那里收取并在索赔支付之前持有的资金。大多数保险公司会将这笔现金投资于债券等固定收益工具以产生收入。然而，巴菲特抛弃了这种典型的保险公司策略，转而投资于高质量的股票。</p>
</div><p>It's a unique strategy in the industry that has vaulted Berkshire to being of the largest companies in the world by market cap. However, over the past several quarters, Buffett has been much more interested in selling stocks and compiling cash than in investing. In fact, last year he only purchased about $9 billion worth of stock while selling more than $143 billion. This included significantly reducing positions in his top holdings, such as <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Bank of America</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这在行业中是一种独特的策略，使伯克希尔成为全球市值最大的公司之一。然而，在过去几个季度中，巴菲特对出售股票和积累现金的兴趣远远超过了投资。事实上，去年他仅购买了约 90 亿美元的股票，而出售超过 1430 亿美元。这包括显著减少他在 <strong>苹果</strong> 和 <strong>美国银行</strong> 等主要持股的头寸。</p>
</div><p>Combined with the cash flow the company generated for the year, this left Berkshire with a whopping $334 billion in cash on its balance sheet at year-end. In the investing industry, this is known as dry powder, which is essentially money on the sidelines that can be used to make investments. Berkshire has plenty of dry powder at the moment and one of the greatest value investors of all time at the helm to buy stocks when he feels the timing is right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结合公司在年度内产生的现金流，这使得伯克希尔在年末的资产负债表上拥有高达 3340 亿美元的现金。在投资行业中，这被称为干粉，基本上是可以用于投资的闲置资金。伯克希尔目前拥有充足的干粉，并且有史以来最伟大的价值投资者之一在掌舵，可以在他认为时机合适时购买股票。</p>
</div><p>Now a simple market correction may not be enough to get Buffett back to aggressively buying stocks. He started to pull back from stocks in the first half of 2024 and the major market indexes like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> are still higher than they were at the end of June 2024. However, if any individual stocks become attractive, Buffett has a lot of cash to deploy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，简单的市场修正可能不足以让巴菲特重新开始积极买入股票。他在 2024 年上半年开始减少股票投资，而 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 等主要市场指数仍高于 2024 年 6 月底的水平。然而，如果任何个别股票变得有吸引力，巴菲特有很多现金可以投入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwMjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812022%2Fgettyimages-1373109638.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Berkshire stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希尔股票值得买入吗？</h2>
</div><p>Although this current market environment attracts investors to Berkshire's dry powder, that doesn't necessarily make the stock a good buy at current levels. In addition to selling down stock positions over the past year, Buffett also decided to stop buying back Berkshire stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管当前的市场环境吸引投资者关注伯克希尔的干粉，但这并不一定意味着该股票在当前价格下是一个好的买入选择。除了在过去一年中减少股票头寸外，巴菲特还决定停止回购伯克希尔股票。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire had consistently repurchased shares of its stock each quarter for the past six years until the company stopped in the third quarter of last year. There is no indication that Buffett has bought back any stock this year, which would make it the longest stretch he has gone without repurchasing Berkshire stock since at least 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔在过去六年中每个季度都持续回购其股票，直到去年第三季度停止。今年没有迹象表明巴菲特回购了任何股票，这将是自 2018 年以来他最长的一段时间没有回购伯克希尔股票。</p>
</div><p>In the past, Berkshire used to decide whether to buy back shares based on the company's price-to-book (P/B) value. This is a metric commonly used to value insurance companies and represents its price compared to the value of its underlying assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去，伯克希尔会根据公司的市净率 (P/B) 来决定是否回购股票。这是一个常用于评估保险公司的指标，代表其价格与其基础资产价值的比较。</p>
</div><p>Buffett used to use a 1.1 times P/B multiple as a threshold to determine whether or not to buy back Berkshire stock, and he later upped it to a 1.2 times multiple. He eventually stopped using a P/B limit to determine buybacks and now will just buy back stock when he feels Berkshire stock is trading below its intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特曾使用 1.1 倍的市净率作为回购伯克希尔股票的阈值，后来将其提高到 1.2 倍。他最终停止使用市净率限制来决定回购，现在只会在他认为伯克希尔股票交易低于其内在价值时回购股票。</p>
</div><p>Trading at over 1.7 times P/B, Berkshire stock is currently well above levels Buffett once considered a good value. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has also shot up to highs in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，伯克希尔股票的市净率超过 1.7 倍，远高于巴菲特曾认为的良好价值水平。其市盈率 (P/E) 在近年来也飙升至高位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B Price to Book Value data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 市净率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire is being looked at as safe haven where Buffett has plenty of cash at his disposal to start buying stocks when the time is right. But investors are paying a pretty steep premium to wait for him to make his move, and I don't think this will happen soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希尔被视为一个安全的避风港，巴菲特手中有充足的现金可以在时机合适时开始购买股票。但投资者为等待他采取行动支付了相当高的溢价，我认为这不会很快发生。</p>
</div><p>I'd view Berkshire more as a hold and wouldn't be looking to be a new-money buyer at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我会将伯克希尔视为持有，而不会在当前价格下考虑作为新资金买入。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Berkshire Hathaway While It's Below $550?

- 伯克希尔哈撒韦股票在市场下跌中逆势上涨，年初至今涨幅超过 15%。
- 公司现金储备达到 3340 亿美元，提供了投资的 “干粉”。
- 当前股价高于巴菲特认为的合理价值，建议持有而非新买入。

伯克希尔哈撒韦的股价低于 550 美元时，你应该购买吗？