<p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.16%) 在过去几年让投资者惊叹不已，似乎以不断的势头攀升，达到了创纪录的水平。该股票甚至在去年飙升至超过 $1,000，随后公司进行了股票拆分，以降低每股价格。所有这一切都得益于英伟达在当今最受关注的市场之一：人工智能（AI）中的地位。</p>
<p>分析师预计这一市场将在整个十年内爆炸性增长，而我们迄今为止看到的发展也支持了这一观点。科技巨头们正在其人工智能项目上投资数十亿美元——许多公司已经开始看到这些努力的成果。例如，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 的云计算部门去年发布了 $1150 亿的收入年化率，因为客户选择了其人工智能产品和服务。</p>
<p>所有这些都帮助英伟达的收益不断攀升。直到最近，股价也随之上涨，但对整体经济的担忧超过了对英伟达财务结果和未来前景的乐观情绪。事实上，就在上周，英伟达的股票做了一件近三年来未曾做过的事情。让我们来看看这一举动，并考虑历史会告诉我们接下来会发生什么。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyMzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtc3VycHJpc2VkLWJ1c2luZXNzLXBlcnNvbi5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyMzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtc3VycHJpc2VkLWJ1c2luZXNzLXBlcnNvbi5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英伟达的 “死亡交叉”</h2>
<p>无论你是投资新手还是已经购买股票多年，你可能听说过技术分析。它涉及查看历史市场数据，以预测股票可能的下一步动作。它通常与短期投资相关，因为它可以指导你在特定时刻买入或卖出，以潜在获利。在技术分析的世界中，英伟达的股票刚刚发生了一个重大变化。上周，其 50 日移动平均线（在给定时间段内的平均价格趋势）首次跌破 200 日移动平均线，形成了所谓的 “死亡交叉”。</p>
<p>而死亡交叉表明负面动能正在增强，并可能成为一种持续的趋势。现在让我们考虑一下英伟达股票在上一次死亡交叉后的表现——在 2022 年 4 月。该指标准确预测了接下来的走势，因为英伟达的股票从那时起到年底下跌了约 45%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50 日简单移动平均数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>另一次类似的变化发生在 2018 年 11 月，英伟达的股票在接下来的九个月中下跌了超过 40%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="473" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50 日简单移动平均数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>那么，这是否意味着英伟达绝对会进入一个持续的亏损期，你应该远离这只股票？不一定。重要的是要记住，尽管技术分析在许多情况下能够成功检测短期趋势，但它并未考虑基本面——例如出色的盈利记录——或公司可能随时报告的积极消息。日内交易者发现这些模式很有用，因为他们在几个小时或几天内进行买卖，但长期投资者不应让技术趋势影响他们的投资决策——有两个关键原因。</p>
<h2>一家公司的真实价值</h2>
<p>首先，如前所述，技术分析并未考虑公司通过其基本面所衡量的真实价值。它基本上指示你在短期内何时可能买入或卖出以获得收益。但是，为了潜在获得更大的胜利，你最好在数年内押注于一只优质股票，以便在公司在其市场中成长和发展时受益。</p>
<p>其次，对某只股票的情绪——在这种情况下是英伟达——可能会在一夜之间发生变化。在任何时候，如果对英伟达施加压力的关键外部因素发生变化，股票可能会飙升。例如，如果特朗普政府放宽最新的进口关税或与贸易伙伴达成协议，这一消息可能会提振英伟达的股价。因此，对于长期投资者来说，最好在估值看起来合理时买入股票，而不是试图等待最低水平。</p>
<p>时机把握市场是非常困难的，如果你尝试这样做，可能会错过机会（并花费过多时间盯着电脑屏幕）。值得注意的是，英伟达在过去的死亡交叉期后曾大幅上涨——在 2022 年死亡交叉后的 18 个月内上涨超过 85%，在 2018 年事件后的两年内上涨约 140%。</p>
<h2>为什么英伟达可能会获胜</h2>
<p>所有这些意味着，最好将对潜在短期模式的担忧放在一边，关注公司在未来几年的前景。在这种情况下，英伟达给我们提供了许多对未来充满热情的理由。</p>
<p>该公司是人工智能芯片的领导者，其对创新的关注应能保持这一势头。而且英伟达不仅在创造出色的收入，而且还以高水平的盈利能力实现这一目标——每个季度的毛利率超过 70%。考虑到这些因素，英伟达的股票目前以 25 倍的未来收益预期交易，低于今年早些时候的 50 倍，价格看起来非常合理。</p>
<p>因此，即使历史表明英伟达的负面动能可能会持续，精明的投资者也可能将其视为以合理价格买入该股票的机会——然后持有并可能在长期内获胜。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票最近形成了 “死亡交叉”，其 50 日移动平均线跌破了 200 日平均线，显示出潜在的负面动能。历史上，这种模式通常会导致显著的下跌，英伟达在 2022 年 4 月经历类似事件后下跌了 45%。然而，长期投资者被建议关注公司的基本面和在人工智能市场的增长潜力，因为英伟达在过去的死亡交叉后强劲反弹，在 2022 年后的 18 个月内上涨超过 85%，在 2018 年后的两年内上涨了 140%</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.16%) amazed investors over the past few years, climbing with what seemed like nonstop momentum to reach record levels. The stock even soared beyond $1,000 last year before the company launched its stock split, a move to lower the per-share price. All of this is thanks to Nvidia's position in one of today's most-watched markets: artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong>(NVDA 3.16%) 在过去几年让投资者惊叹不已，似乎以不断的势头攀升，达到了创纪录的水平。该股票甚至在去年飙升至超过 $1,000，随后公司进行了股票拆分，以降低每股价格。所有这一切都得益于英伟达在当今最受关注的市场之一：人工智能（AI）中的地位。</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect this market to explode higher throughout the decade, and developments we've seen so far support this idea. Tech giants are investing billions of dollars in their AI programs -- and many already are starting to see the efforts bear fruit. For example, <strong>Amazon</strong>'s cloud computing arm last year posted a $115 billion revenue run rate as customers opted for its AI products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师预计这一市场将在整个十年内爆炸性增长，而我们迄今为止看到的发展也支持了这一观点。科技巨头们正在其人工智能项目上投资数十亿美元——许多公司已经开始看到这些努力的成果。例如，<strong>亚马逊</strong> 的云计算部门去年发布了 $1150 亿的收入年化率，因为客户选择了其人工智能产品和服务。</p>
</div><p>All of this has helped Nvidia's earnings to climb. The share price followed until recently, as concerns about the general economy outweighed optimism about Nvidia's financial results and future prospects. In fact, just last week, Nvidia stock did something it hasn't done for nearly three years. Let's take a look at this move, and consider what history says will happen next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些都帮助英伟达的收益不断攀升。直到最近，股价也随之上涨，但对整体经济的担忧超过了对英伟达财务结果和未来前景的乐观情绪。事实上，就在上周，英伟达的股票做了一件近三年来未曾做过的事情。让我们来看看这一举动，并考虑历史会告诉我们接下来会发生什么。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyMzcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtc3VycHJpc2VkLWJ1c2luZXNzLXBlcnNvbi5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812237%2Fgettyimages-surprised-business-person.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's &#34;death cross&#34;</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英伟达的 “死亡交叉”</h2>
</div><p>Whether you're new to investing or have been buying stocks for years, you may have heard of technical analysis. It involves looking at historical market data to predict what a stock may do next. It's often associated with shorter-term investing as it could guide you to buy or sell at a specific moment to potentially benefit. Well, in the world of technical analysis, Nvidia stock just made a big move. Its 50-day moving average (an average price trend over a given period of time) last week passed below its 200-day moving average, forming what's known as a &#34;death cross.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论你是投资新手还是已经购买股票多年，你可能听说过技术分析。它涉及查看历史市场数据，以预测股票可能的下一步动作。它通常与短期投资相关，因为它可以指导你在特定时刻买入或卖出，以潜在获利。在技术分析的世界中，英伟达的股票刚刚发生了一个重大变化。上周，其 50 日移动平均线（在给定时间段内的平均价格趋势）首次跌破 200 日移动平均线，形成了所谓的 “死亡交叉”。</p>
</div><p>And a death cross suggests negative momentum is picking up and that it could become a lasting trend. Now let's consider how Nvidia stock performed following its last death cross -- back in April of 2022. The measure was an accurate predictor of what was to come, as Nvidia stock sank about 45% from that point through the rest of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而死亡交叉表明负面动能正在增强，并可能成为一种持续的趋势。现在让我们考虑一下英伟达股票在上一次死亡交叉后的表现——在 2022 年 4 月。该指标准确预测了接下来的走势，因为英伟达的股票从那时起到年底下跌了约 45%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/50e61f00b6df7d2482cceb9eaf4e00f9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50-Day Simple Moving Average data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 50 日简单移动平均数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Another such move happened in November 2018, and Nvidia stock went on to drop more than 40% in the following nine months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一次类似的变化发生在 2018 年 11 月，英伟达的股票在接下来的九个月中下跌了超过 40%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8984f342d61c68442e7ee94e95ccc2f6.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 50-Day Simple Moving Average data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 50 日简单移动平均数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>So, does this mean Nvidia absolutely is heading for a sustained period of losses and that you should stay away from the stock? Not necessarily. It's important to remember that though technical analysis may on many occasions successfully detect short-term trends, it doesn't take into account fundamentals -- such as a great earnings track record -- or positive news that the company may report at any moment. Day traders find these patterns useful as they buy and sell in a matter of hours or days, but long-term investors shouldn't let a technical trend affect their investing decisions -- for two key reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，这是否意味着英伟达绝对会进入一个持续的亏损期，你应该远离这只股票？不一定。重要的是要记住，尽管技术分析在许多情况下能够成功检测短期趋势，但它并未考虑基本面——例如出色的盈利记录——或公司可能随时报告的积极消息。日内交易者发现这些模式很有用，因为他们在几个小时或几天内进行买卖，但长期投资者不应让技术趋势影响他们的投资决策——有两个关键原因。</p>
</div><h2>The true value of a company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家公司的真实价值</h2>
</div><p>First, as mentioned, technical analysis doesn't consider the true value of a company as measured by its fundamentals. It basically indicates when you might buy or sell in the near term to post a gain. But, to potentially score an even bigger win, you're better off betting on a quality stock for a number of years so that you can benefit as the company grows and develops in its market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，如前所述，技术分析并未考虑公司通过其基本面所衡量的真实价值。它基本上指示你在短期内何时可能买入或卖出以获得收益。但是，为了潜在获得更大的胜利，你最好在数年内押注于一只优质股票，以便在公司在其市场中成长和发展时受益。</p>
</div><p>Second, sentiment about a given stock -- in this case, Nvidia -- may shift overnight. At any point, if a key external element that's weighing on Nvidia changes, the stock could take off. For example, if the Trump administration loosens up the latest tariffs on imports or reaches an agreement with trade partners, that news may lift Nvidia shares. So, for the long-term investor, it's best to buy a stock when the valuation looks reasonable rather than attempting to wait for the very lowest level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，对某只股票的情绪——在这种情况下是英伟达——可能会在一夜之间发生变化。在任何时候，如果对英伟达施加压力的关键外部因素发生变化，股票可能会飙升。例如，如果特朗普政府放宽最新的进口关税或与贸易伙伴达成协议，这一消息可能会提振英伟达的股价。因此，对于长期投资者来说，最好在估值看起来合理时买入股票，而不是试图等待最低水平。</p>
</div><p>It's very difficult to time the market, and if you try, you may miss out on opportunities (and spend way too much time starting at your computer screen). It's important to note that Nvidia went on to roar higher after past death cross periods -- more than 85% in the 18 months following the 2022 death cross and about 140% in the two years following the 2018 event.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>时机把握市场是非常困难的，如果你尝试这样做，可能会错过机会（并花费过多时间盯着电脑屏幕）。值得注意的是，英伟达在过去的死亡交叉期后曾大幅上涨——在 2022 年死亡交叉后的 18 个月内上涨超过 85%，在 2018 年事件后的两年内上涨约 140%。</p>
</div><h2>Why Nvidia could win</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么英伟达可能会获胜</h2>
</div><p>All of this means it's best to set aside concerns about potential short-term patterns and focus on a company's prospects over the coming years. In this case, Nvidia offers us plenty of reasons to be enthusiastic about what's to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些意味着，最好将对潜在短期模式的担忧放在一边，关注公司在未来几年的前景。在这种情况下，英伟达给我们提供了许多对未来充满热情的理由。</p>
</div><p>The company is the AI chip leader, and its focus on innovation should keep this going. And Nvidia's not only generating standout revenue, but it's also doing this at a high level of profitability -- with gross margin of more than 70% each quarter. Considering these points, trading for 25 times forward earnings estimates down from 50 earlier this year, Nvidia stock looks very reasonably priced today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司是人工智能芯片的领导者，其对创新的关注应能保持这一势头。而且英伟达不仅在创造出色的收入，而且还以高水平的盈利能力实现这一目标——每个季度的毛利率超过 70%。考虑到这些因素，英伟达的股票目前以 25 倍的未来收益预期交易，低于今年早些时候的 50 倍，价格看起来非常合理。</p>
</div><p>So, even if history suggests Nvidia's negative momentum could continue, savvy investors may use this as an opportunity to get in on the stock for a good price -- then hold on and potentially win over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使历史表明英伟达的负面动能可能会持续，精明的投资者也可能将其视为以合理价格买入该股票的机会——然后持有并可能在长期内获胜。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Just Did This for the First Time in 3 Years. Here's What History Says Will Happen Next

- Nvidia 股票近期出现 “死亡交叉”，50 日均线跌破 200 日均线。
- 历史数据显示，此现象后股价可能下跌，但长期投资者应关注基本面。
- Nvidia 在 AI 芯片领域领先，未来前景乐观，当前估值合理。

英伟达股票三年来首次出现这种情况。历史告诉我们接下来会发生什么