<p>阿克投资管理公司由多产的科技投资者 Cathie Wood 创立，认为到 2027 年，无人驾驶叫车行业可能会产生 14 万亿美元的企业价值。<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 11.78%）是自驾技术的领先开发者，其新的 Cybercab 机器人出租车——能够在没有人类干预的情况下运载乘客——可能会在今年尽早上路。</p>
<p>但特斯拉可能不是无人驾驶革命的最大赢家。相反，我认为 <strong>优步科技</strong>（UBER 0.91%）有潜力在这个数万亿美元的新市场中占据更大的份额。它目前运营着全球最大的叫车平台，并且拥有成功所需的所有基础设施，随着无人驾驶的趋势不断加速。</p>
<p>优步的股票目前相对于特斯拉的估值非常有吸引力，因此在无人驾驶汽车成为主流之前，今天购买优步股票可能是一个不错的选择。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxOTkvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlci1vZi1hLXNlbGYtZHJpdmluZy1jYXItc3RvcHBlZC1hdC1hLWNyb3NzLXdhbGstc3Vycm91bmRlZC1ieS1wZW9wbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxOTkvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlci1vZi1hLXNlbGYtZHJpdmluZy1jYXItc3RvcHBlZC1hdC1hLWNyb3NzLXdhbGstc3Vycm91bmRlZC1ieS1wZW9wbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>一切都与网络有关</h2>
<p>无人驾驶汽车最终可能会像普通汽车一样普遍，因此这将是一个极具竞争性的行业，开发者和制造商都将面临挑战。然而，设计出最佳的无人驾驶汽车并不是在叫车业务中占据市场份额的最难部分——真正的挑战在于建立网络并实现规模化。</p>
<p>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克希望为 Cybercab 机器人出租车建立一个叫车网络。公司的乘用电动车（EV）车主也可以将他们的汽车借给网络，并在不使用时产生收入。因此，特斯拉应该有充足的汽车供应来提供叫车服务，但公司能否说服数百万人下载_另一个_智能手机应用并实际使用它呢？</p>
<p>这就是优步拥有显著优势的地方。它并不打算设计自己的无人驾驶汽车，但其现有的叫车平台每月已经为超过 1.71 亿用户服务，首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨希最近解释了它如何已经具备应对特斯拉等公司在建立自己网络时所面临的许多运营挑战。例如，由于优步每年管理 120 亿次出行，它在主要城市中平衡供需方面是专家。未充分利用的无人驾驶汽车可能会造成巨额损失，因此这一点至关重要。</p>
<p>此外，优步拥有所有基础设施，可以迅速处理费用争议、保险索赔、失物归还，甚至是被困车辆。基于这些原因，科斯罗萨希相信，无人驾驶汽车开发者将纷纷涌向优步的网络。这将帮助他们比单独应对这一行业更快地实现规模化。</p>
<p>从财务角度来看，无人驾驶汽车可能会改变优步的游戏规则。去年，优步网络中运营的 1700 万名人类司机赚取了 725 亿美元，这也是公司 1627 亿美元总预订额中最大的组成部分（消费者在平台上花费的总金额）。通过消除这一成本，优步可以将更多的预订转化为收入，然后实现盈利。</p>
<h2>优步已经与多家无人驾驶公司建立合作关系</h2>
<p>优步并没有等待无人驾驶技术的成熟。它正在与尽可能多的制造商建立合作关系，即使他们仍处于商业化的早期阶段。它已经与超过十家制造商签署了协议，包括 WeRide、Motional、<strong>Serve Robotics</strong>，以及最重要的 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo。</p>
<p>Waymo 每周在旧金山、洛杉矶、凤凰城和德克萨斯州奥斯汀完成超过 20 万次付费无人驾驶出行，并计划在不久的将来扩展到迈阿密和亚特兰大。优步将成为 Waymo 在亚特兰大的独家合作伙伴，正如它在奥斯汀一样，这是朝着成为无人驾驶领域领先叫车网络迈出的重要一步。</p>
<p>特斯拉的无监督 FSD 软件仍未获得在公共道路上使用的批准，预计到今年年底可能仅在加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州可用。此外，其 Cybercab 预计要到 2026 年才能实现大规模生产，因此该公司在 Waymo 等公司面前显得相当落后。</p>
<p>在 1 月份，优步还与 <strong>英伟达</strong> 签署了一项独特的协议，英伟达是全球最大的芯片和其他 AI 开发解决方案供应商。优步希望利用其每年在平台上完成的数十亿次出行中收集的宝贵数据，帮助其无人驾驶合作伙伴加速商业化进程。优步将使用英伟达的 DGX Cloud 处理这些数据，这是一个提供所有所需硬件和软件的平台解决方案。</p>
<p>优步还将使用英伟达的 Cosmos 基础模型系列，允许开发者创建广泛的现实世界模拟，以训练他们的无人驾驶软件。这可以加快训练过程，相较于传统方法，减少汽车在现实世界中行驶以收集数据的需求。</p>
<p>优步在帮助其合作伙伴更快将无人驾驶汽车推向市场的投资，未来可能带来可观的回报，因为这将帮助公司减少去年产生的 725 亿美元的司机成本。</p>
<h2>目前优步股票看起来比特斯拉股票更具吸引力</h2>
<p>优步去年每股收益（EPS）为 4.56 美元，较 2023 年的结果增长了 424%。这使得优步的股票市盈率仅为 16.6，远低于更广泛市场——截至目前，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的市盈率约为 22.9。</p>
<p>但这也使得优步的股票比特斯拉便宜得多，后者的市盈率高达 121.9。当考虑到该公司的每股收益在 2024 年下降了 53% 并可能在今年再次下降时，这一估值显得更加昂贵：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/055555a1031dd644c59f946ce29c7d5c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/055555a1031dd644c59f946ce29c7d5c.png"/></p>
<p>优步市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>尽管如此，优步的极低估值还有一个警告。该公司在 2024 年受益于一次性税收优惠 57 亿美元，因此如果没有这一点，其每股收益将约为 2.01 美元，使其市盈率为 37.5。尽管如此，与特斯拉相比，它仍然是一个绝对的便宜货。</p>
<p>考虑到优步可能在潜在的 14 万亿美元自动驾驶浪潮中处于更有利的位置，其股票在当前价格下可能是任何平衡投资组合的一个很好的长期补充。</p>

特斯拉

优步

<p>阿克投资管理公司预测，到 2027 年，自动驾驶叫车行业可能达到 14 万亿美元。虽然特斯拉凭借其 Cybercab 机器人出租车是该领域的关键参与者，但优步科技由于其成熟的叫车平台和用户基础，可能会占据更大的市场份额。优步现有的基础设施以及与自动驾驶汽车制造商（包括 Waymo 和 Nvidia）的合作，使其在未来具备良好的竞争优势。通过消除人类司机的成本，优步在自动驾驶汽车市场中可能显著提高其收入和利润潜力</p>

<p>Ark Investment Management, which was founded by prolific technology investor Cathie Wood, thinks the autonomous ride-hailing industry could generate $14 trillion in enterprise value by 2027. <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 11.78%) is a leading developer of self-driving technologies, and its new Cybercab robotaxi -- which will be able to haul passengers with no human input -- could hit American roads as soon as this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿克投资管理公司由多产的科技投资者 Cathie Wood 创立，认为到 2027 年，无人驾驶叫车行业可能会产生 14 万亿美元的企业价值。<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 11.78%）是自驾技术的领先开发者，其新的 Cybercab 机器人出租车——能够在没有人类干预的情况下运载乘客——可能会在今年尽早上路。</p>
</div><p>But Tesla might not be the biggest winner of the autonomous revolution. Instead, I think <strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER 0.91%) has the potential to capture a much bigger share of this new, multitrillion-dollar market. It currently operates the largest ride-hailing platform in the world, and it has all of the infrastructure in place to succeed as the shift toward autonomous driving gathers momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但特斯拉可能不是无人驾驶革命的最大赢家。相反，我认为 <strong>优步科技</strong>（UBER 0.91%）有潜力在这个数万亿美元的新市场中占据更大的份额。它目前运营着全球最大的叫车平台，并且拥有成功所需的所有基础设施，随着无人驾驶的趋势不断加速。</p>
</div><p>Uber stock currently trades at a very attractive valuation relative to Tesla, so here's why it might be a great buy today, before autonomous cars go mainstream.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步的股票目前相对于特斯拉的估值非常有吸引力，因此在无人驾驶汽车成为主流之前，今天购买优步股票可能是一个不错的选择。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxOTkvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlci1vZi1hLXNlbGYtZHJpdmluZy1jYXItc3RvcHBlZC1hdC1hLWNyb3NzLXdhbGstc3Vycm91bmRlZC1ieS1wZW9wbGUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812199%2Fa-digital-render-of-a-self-driving-car-stopped-at-a-cross-walk-surrounded-by-people.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>It's all about the network</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一切都与网络有关</h2>
</div><p>Self-driving cars could eventually be as common as regular cars, so this will be an extremely competitive industry for developers and manufacturers. However, designing the best autonomous vehicle won't be the hardest part of capturing market share in the ride-hailing business -- the real challenge will be building a network and achieving scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无人驾驶汽车最终可能会像普通汽车一样普遍，因此这将是一个极具竞争性的行业，开发者和制造商都将面临挑战。然而，设计出最佳的无人驾驶汽车并不是在叫车业务中占据市场份额的最难部分——真正的挑战在于建立网络并实现规模化。</p>
</div><p>Tesla CEO Elon Musk wants to build a ride-hailing network for the Cybercab robotaxi. Owners of the company's passenger electric vehicles (EVs) will also be able to lend their cars to the network and generate income when they aren't using them. As a result, Tesla should have an ample supply of cars available to provide ride-hailing services, but can the company convince millions of people to download <em>another</em> smartphone app and actually use it?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克希望为 Cybercab 机器人出租车建立一个叫车网络。公司的乘用电动车（EV）车主也可以将他们的汽车借给网络，并在不使用时产生收入。因此，特斯拉应该有充足的汽车供应来提供叫车服务，但公司能否说服数百万人下载_另一个_智能手机应用并实际使用它呢？</p>
</div><p>This is where Uber has a sizable advantage. It doesn't plan to design its own self-driving car, but its existing ride-hailing platform already serves over 171 million users every month, and CEO Dara Khosrowshahi recently explained how it's already equipped to deal with many of the operational challenges companies like Tesla will face when building their own networks. For example, since Uber manages 12 billion trips per year, it's an expert at delicately balancing supply and demand in major cities. An underutilized autonomous car could lose significant amounts of money, so this is critical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是优步拥有显著优势的地方。它并不打算设计自己的无人驾驶汽车，但其现有的叫车平台每月已经为超过 1.71 亿用户服务，首席执行官达拉·科斯罗萨希最近解释了它如何已经具备应对特斯拉等公司在建立自己网络时所面临的许多运营挑战。例如，由于优步每年管理 120 亿次出行，它在主要城市中平衡供需方面是专家。未充分利用的无人驾驶汽车可能会造成巨额损失，因此这一点至关重要。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Uber has all of the infrastructure in place to swiftly handle fare disputes, insurance claims, lost item returns, and even stranded vehicles. For all of those reasons, Khosrowshahi believes autonomous vehicle developers will flock to Uber's network. It will help them scale far more quickly than trying to tackle this industry on their own.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，优步拥有所有基础设施，可以迅速处理费用争议、保险索赔、失物归还，甚至是被困车辆。基于这些原因，科斯罗萨希相信，无人驾驶汽车开发者将纷纷涌向优步的网络。这将帮助他们比单独应对这一行业更快地实现规模化。</p>
</div><p>From a financial perspective, autonomous vehicles could change the game for Uber. The 17 million human drivers who operate in its network earned a whopping $72.5 billion last year, which was the single biggest component of the company's $162.7 billion in gross bookings (the total dollar amount consumers spent on the platform). By eliminating that cost, Uber can convert more of its bookings into revenue, and then profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从财务角度来看，无人驾驶汽车可能会改变优步的游戏规则。去年，优步网络中运营的 1700 万名人类司机赚取了 725 亿美元，这也是公司 1627 亿美元总预订额中最大的组成部分（消费者在平台上花费的总金额）。通过消除这一成本，优步可以将更多的预订转化为收入，然后实现盈利。</p>
</div><h2>Uber already has several autonomous partnerships</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>优步已经与多家无人驾驶公司建立合作关系</h2>
</div><p>Uber isn't waiting around for autonomous technologies to scale. It's partnering with as many manufacturers as it can right now, even if they are still in the early stages of commercialization. It has already signed deals with over a dozen of them, including WeRide, Motional, <strong>Serve Robotics</strong>, and most notably, <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步并没有等待无人驾驶技术的成熟。它正在与尽可能多的制造商建立合作关系，即使他们仍处于商业化的早期阶段。它已经与超过十家制造商签署了协议，包括 WeRide、Motional、<strong>Serve Robotics</strong>，以及最重要的 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 Waymo。</p>
</div><p>Waymo is completing over 200,000 paid autonomous trips every week in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin, Texas, with expansion to Miami and Atlanta planned in the near future. Uber will be the exclusive home of Waymo in Atlanta, as it already is in Austin, which is a big step toward becoming the leading ride-hailing network in the autonomous space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Waymo 每周在旧金山、洛杉矶、凤凰城和德克萨斯州奥斯汀完成超过 20 万次付费无人驾驶出行，并计划在不久的将来扩展到迈阿密和亚特兰大。优步将成为 Waymo 在亚特兰大的独家合作伙伴，正如它在奥斯汀一样，这是朝着成为无人驾驶领域领先叫车网络迈出的重要一步。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's unsupervised FSD software still hasn't received approval for use on public roads, and it might only be in California and Texas by the end of this year. Moreover, its Cybercab isn't expected to reach mass production until 2026, so the company is significantly behind the likes of Waymo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的无监督 FSD 软件仍未获得在公共道路上使用的批准，预计到今年年底可能仅在加利福尼亚州和德克萨斯州可用。此外，其 Cybercab 预计要到 2026 年才能实现大规模生产，因此该公司在 Waymo 等公司面前显得相当落后。</p>
</div><p>In January, Uber also signed a unique deal with <strong>Nvidia</strong>, which is the world's largest supplier of chips and other solutions for AI development. Uber wants to harness the valuable data it collects from the billions of trips completed on its platform each year to help its autonomous partners accelerate their path to commercialization. Uber will process that data using Nvidia's DGX Cloud, which is a platform solution delivering all of the required hardware and software.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1 月份，优步还与 <strong>英伟达</strong> 签署了一项独特的协议，英伟达是全球最大的芯片和其他 AI 开发解决方案供应商。优步希望利用其每年在平台上完成的数十亿次出行中收集的宝贵数据，帮助其无人驾驶合作伙伴加速商业化进程。优步将使用英伟达的 DGX Cloud 处理这些数据，这是一个提供所有所需硬件和软件的平台解决方案。</p>
</div><p>Uber will also use Nvidia's Cosmos family of foundation models, which allows developers to create expansive real-world simulations to train their autonomous software. This can speed up the training process compared to traditional methods because it reduces the need for cars to drive around in the real world to collect data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步还将使用英伟达的 Cosmos 基础模型系列，允许开发者创建广泛的现实世界模拟，以训练他们的无人驾驶软件。这可以加快训练过程，相较于传统方法，减少汽车在现实世界中行驶以收集数据的需求。</p>
</div><p>Uber's investment in helping its partners bring their autonomous vehicles to market faster could pay substantial dividends in the future because it will help the company reduce the enormous $72.5 billion in driver costs it incurred last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步在帮助其合作伙伴更快将无人驾驶汽车推向市场的投资，未来可能带来可观的回报，因为这将帮助公司减少去年产生的 725 亿美元的司机成本。</p>
</div><h2>Uber stock looks far more attractive than Tesla stock right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>目前优步股票看起来比特斯拉股票更具吸引力</h2>
</div><p>Uber generated $4.56 in earnings per share (EPS) last year, which represented a whopping 424% increase from its 2023 result. It places Uber stock at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 16.6, which is much cheaper than the broader market -- the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> trades at a P/E ratio of around 22.9 as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步去年每股收益（EPS）为 4.56 美元，较 2023 年的结果增长了 424%。这使得优步的股票市盈率仅为 16.6，远低于更广泛市场——截至目前，<strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 的市盈率约为 22.9。</p>
</div><p>But it also makes Uber stock substantially cheaper than Tesla, which trades at an eye-popping P/E ratio of 121.9. That valuation looks even more expensive when you consider the company's EPS <em>shrank</em> by 53% during 2024 and could decline again this year:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这也使得优步的股票比特斯拉便宜得多，后者的市盈率高达 121.9。当考虑到该公司的每股收益在 2024 年下降了 53% 并可能在今年再次下降时，这一估值显得更加昂贵：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/055555a1031dd644c59f946ce29c7d5c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/055555a1031dd644c59f946ce29c7d5c.png"/></p>
<p>UBER PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>优步市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>With all of that said, there is one caveat to Uber's incredibly cheap valuation. The company benefited from a one-time tax benefit of $5.7 billion in 2024, so without that, its EPS would have come in around $2.01, placing its P/E ratio at 37.5. Nevertheless, it would still be an absolute bargain compared to Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，优步的极低估值还有一个警告。该公司在 2024 年受益于一次性税收优惠 57 亿美元，因此如果没有这一点，其每股收益将约为 2.01 美元，使其市盈率为 37.5。尽管如此，与特斯拉相比，它仍然是一个绝对的便宜货。</p>
</div><p>Considering Uber might be far better positioned to benefit from the potential $14 trillion autonomous driving boom, its stock could be a great long-term addition to any balanced portfolio at the current price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到优步可能在潜在的 14 万亿美元自动驾驶浪潮中处于更有利的位置，其股票在当前价格下可能是任何平衡投资组合的一个很好的长期补充。</p>
</div>

1 Unstoppable Stock That Could Beat Tesla to This $14 Trillion Opportunity

- Ark Investment 预测自动驾驶打车行业到 2027 年将产生 14 万亿美元的企业价值。  
- Uber 在全球拥有最大的打车平台，具备成功转型的基础设施。  
- Uber 与多家制造商合作，加速自动驾驶技术的商业化进程。  

一只可能在这个 14 万亿美元机会中领先特斯拉的势不可挡的股票