<p>尽管情绪在投资中可能会发挥作用，但华尔街主要是一个以数据驱动的市场。季度运营结果和近乎每日（周一至周五）的经济数据发布为投资者提供了大量的信息供其分析。</p>
<p>但每个季度最重要的数据揭示或许是来自美国最知名亿万富翁资金管理者的 13F 表格申报。</p>
<p>13F 表格为投资者提供了华尔街领先资产管理者（管理资产至少为 1 亿美元）所购买、出售和持有的股票的简明快照。尽管这些快照在提交时可能已经有多达 45 天的历史，但它们仍然可以为投资者提供有关哪些股票、行业、部门和趋势是最聪明的资金管理者所青睐的宝贵见解。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yZWZsZWN0aW9uLWdsYXNzZXMtbGFwdG9wLWJ1eS1zZWxsLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yZWZsZWN0aW9uLWdsYXNzZXMtbGFwdG9wLWJ1eS1zZWxsLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>关于季度 13F 申报，特别值得注意的是观察到股市上最成功的亿万富翁投资者如何看待华尔街的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.66%）。而专注的亿万富翁基金经理——我所说的 “专注” 是指持有 100 个或更少证券的基金——一直在持续减少或完全抛售 Nvidia 股票，但有一位知名亿万富翁却没有出售一股。</p>
<h2>这位亿万富翁是 Nvidia 最大的看涨者吗？</h2>
<p>有十多位亿万富翁资金管理者管理着集中投资组合，证券数量在 10 到 100 之间。在这些人中，有四位一直在持续出售 Nvidia 股票：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Coatue Management 的 Philippe Laffont</strong>：自 2023 年第一季度以来出售了 39,795,532 股 Nvidia。</li>
<li><strong>Appaloosa Management 的 David Tepper</strong>：自 2023 年第三季度以来出售了 9,569,999 股。</li>
<li><strong>Lone Pine Capital 的 Stephen Mandel</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以来出售了其基金的全部股份 6,416,490 股。</li>
<li><strong>Duquesne Family Office 的 Stanley Druckenmiller</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以来出售了其基金的全部股份 9,500,750 股。</li>
</ul>
<p>请注意，这些股份数量已根据 Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月进行的 10 比 1 的前向股票拆分进行了调整。</p>
<p>而在另一端，有一位亿万富翁基金经理没有兑现一股：Tiger Global Management 的 Chase Coleman。</p>
<p>截至 2024 年底，Coleman 管理着近 265 亿美元的资产，分散在 49 只股票中。Tiger 的亿万富翁首席对创新驱动的科技股、AI 革命和 Nvidia 充满信心。在 2024 年，Coleman 坚定持有 Tiger Global 投资组合中的 9,683,550 股经过拆分调整的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
<p>唯一另一位专注的亿万富翁买家是 Viking Global Investors 的 Ole Andreas Halvorsen，他去年开设了 2,031,985 股的头寸。Coleman 的持股几乎是 Halvorsen 的五倍。</p>
<p>Coleman 对 Nvidia 未来的坚定乐观可能源于其在高计算数据中心中对图形处理单元（GPU）市场份额的绝对主导地位。该公司的 Hopper（H100）及其后续的 Blackwell GPU 架构在 AI 数据中心中占据主导地位，庞大的订单积压和卓越的定价能力使 Nvidia 能够持续超越华尔街的共识预期。</p>
<p>高性能 AI-GPU 的稀缺性也对 Nvidia 有利。即使全球领先的芯片制造公司 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 正在迅速提升其芯片 - 晶圆 - 基板的生产能力，这对于在 AI 加速的数据中心中包装高带宽内存是必要的，Nvidia 及其竞争对手也无法快速销售 AI-GPU。拥有最快和最受欢迎的硬件使 Nvidia 能够对其同行收取 100% 到 300% 的单价溢价。</p>
<p>Chase Coleman 对创新的热爱可能也在促使他希望保留其基金的全部 9.68 百万股 Nvidia 股份。新推出的 Blackwell GPU 在能效方面显著优于其前身，但它的设计旨在显著加速生成性 AI 和量子计算的计算。</p>
<p>到目前为止，Coleman 的乐观态度和不愿出售一股的决心已经得到了丰厚的回报！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>大多数亿万富翁对 Nvidia 股票持谨慎态度</h2>
<p>但每个硬币都有两面，绝大多数亿万富翁资金管理者一直是 Nvidia 股票的净卖家。尽管该公司具有明确的竞争优势以及其 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的卓越计算速度，但亿万富翁 Philippe Laffont、David Tepper、Stephen Mandel 和 Stanley Druckenmiller 可能已经注意到了一些明显的缺陷。</p>
<p>最明显的可能是对竞争将加剧的预期，这将不断削弱 Nvidia 在企业 AI 数据中心的垄断市场份额。虽然焦点往往集中在那些生产自己 AI-GPU 的直接竞争对手（例如 <strong>超威半导体</strong>）上，但更大的担忧可能来自 Nvidia 自身的顶级客户。</p>
<p>在过去两年中，华尔街的 AI 宠儿获得了来自 “大七” 大多数成员的巨额订单。但许多这些按净销售额计算的顶级客户正在开发自己的 AI 芯片，以帮助生成性 AI 解决方案和大型语言模型的训练。尽管这些内部开发的解决方案可能没有 Nvidia 的硬件那么快，但它们必然会便宜得多且更容易获得。这使得 Nvidia 在 2025 年之后可能会失去宝贵的数据中心市场份额。</p>
<p>这四位亿万富翁可能对可能形成的人工智能泡沫有所保留。在过去的 30 多年里，每一项颠覆性的技术/创新，包括互联网，都经历过泡沫破裂事件。这反映了投资者一贯高估新技术在主流市场上被采纳和获得实用性的速度。这导致了最终未能实现的高期望，以及泡沫的破裂。</p>
<p>没有哪只股票比英伟达更直接地受益于人工智能的崛起，预计到 2025 财年（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日），其净销售额中超过 88% 来自数据中心部门。如果人工智能泡沫形成并破裂，英伟达的股票很可能会受到重创。</p>
<p>充其量，英伟达在经历了其抛物线式的上涨后，仍需很长时间才能与其当前估值相匹配。最糟糕的情况下，股东可能面临类似电梯般的下跌。</p>

英伟达

<p>Tiger Global Management 的 Chase Coleman 是少数没有出售英伟达股票的亿万富翁基金经理之一，仍持有 968 万股的显著股份。相比之下，包括 Philippe Laffont 和 David Tepper 在内的几位知名亿万富翁已经出售了大量英伟达股票。Coleman 对英伟达的信心源于其在 GPU 市场的主导地位和创新技术，尽管对 AI 领域竞争加剧的担忧依然存在。大多数亿万富翁投资者对英伟达保持谨慎态度，强调其市场份额面临的潜在风险</p>

<p>Although emotions can come into play when investing, Wall Street is primarily a data-driven landscape. Quarterly operating results and near-daily (Monday through Friday) economic data releases give investors plenty to comb over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管情绪在投资中可能会发挥作用，但华尔街主要是一个以数据驱动的市场。季度运营结果和近乎每日（周一至周五）的经济数据发布为投资者提供了大量的信息供其分析。</p>
</div><p>But perhaps the most important data reveal of each quarter is Form 13F filings from America's most-prominent billionaire money managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每个季度最重要的数据揭示或许是来自美国最知名亿万富翁资金管理者的 13F 表格申报。</p>
</div><p>A 13F provides investors with a concise snapshot of which stocks Wall Street's leading asset managers -- those with at least $100 million in assets under management (AUM) -- have been buying, selling, and holding. Even though these snapshots are up to 45 days old when filed, they can still provide valuable insight into which stocks, industries, sectors, and trends the smartest money managers are flocking to.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>13F 表格为投资者提供了华尔街领先资产管理者（管理资产至少为 1 亿美元）所购买、出售和持有的股票的简明快照。尽管这些快照在提交时可能已经有多达 45 天的历史，但它们仍然可以为投资者提供有关哪些股票、行业、部门和趋势是最聪明的资金管理者所青睐的宝贵见解。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1yZWZsZWN0aW9uLWdsYXNzZXMtbGFwdG9wLWJ1eS1zZWxsLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812188%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-reflection-glasses-laptop-buy-sell-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>What's been particularly noteworthy about quarterly 13F filings is seeing how the stock market's most-successful billionaire investors have approached Wall Street's artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.66%). Whereas focused billionaire fund managers -- by &#34;focused,&#34; I mean a fund with 100 or fewer securities -- have been persistently paring down or completely jettisoning Nvidia stock, one well-known billionaire hasn't sold a single share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关于季度 13F 申报，特别值得注意的是观察到股市上最成功的亿万富翁投资者如何看待华尔街的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -0.66%）。而专注的亿万富翁基金经理——我所说的 “专注” 是指持有 100 个或更少证券的基金——一直在持续减少或完全抛售 Nvidia 股票，但有一位知名亿万富翁却没有出售一股。</p>
</div><h2>Is this billionaire Nvidia's biggest bull?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>这位亿万富翁是 Nvidia 最大的看涨者吗？</h2>
</div><p>There are more than one dozen billionaire money managers who oversee a concentrated portfolio ranging from 10 to 100 securities. Among these, four have been persistent sellers of Nvidia stock:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有十多位亿万富翁资金管理者管理着集中投资组合，证券数量在 10 到 100 之间。在这些人中，有四位一直在持续出售 Nvidia 股票：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management</strong>: Sold 39,795,532 shares of Nvidia since the first quarter of 2023.</li>
<li><strong>David Tepper of Appaloosa Management</strong>: Sold 9,569,999 shares since the third quarter of 2023.</li>
<li><strong>Stephen Mandel of Lone Pine Capital</strong>: Sold his fund's entire stake of 6,416,490 shares since the second quarter of 2023.</li>
<li><strong>Stanley Druckenmiller of Duquesne Family Office</strong>: Sold his fund's entire stake of 9,500,750 shares since the second quarter of 2023.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Coatue Management 的 Philippe Laffont</strong>：自 2023 年第一季度以来出售了 39,795,532 股 Nvidia。</li>
<li><strong>Appaloosa Management 的 David Tepper</strong>：自 2023 年第三季度以来出售了 9,569,999 股。</li>
<li><strong>Lone Pine Capital 的 Stephen Mandel</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以来出售了其基金的全部股份 6,416,490 股。</li>
<li><strong>Duquesne Family Office 的 Stanley Druckenmiller</strong>：自 2023 年第二季度以来出售了其基金的全部股份 9,500,750 股。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Note, these share counts have been adjusted for Nvidia's historic 10-for-1 forward stock split undertaken in June 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请注意，这些股份数量已根据 Nvidia 在 2024 年 6 月进行的 10 比 1 的前向股票拆分进行了调整。</p>
</div><p>On the other end of the spectrum is the one billionaire fund manager who hasn't cashed in a single share: Chase Coleman of Tiger Global Management.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而在另一端，有一位亿万富翁基金经理没有兑现一股：Tiger Global Management 的 Chase Coleman。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of 2024, Coleman was overseeing close to $26.5 billion in AUM, which was spread across 49 stocks. Tiger's billionaire chief is a big believer in innovation-driven tech stocks, the AI revolution, and Nvidia. Throughout 2024, Coleman held firm to the 9,683,550 split-adjusted shares of Nvidia in Tiger Global's portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年底，Coleman 管理着近 265 亿美元的资产，分散在 49 只股票中。Tiger 的亿万富翁首席对创新驱动的科技股、AI 革命和 Nvidia 充满信心。在 2024 年，Coleman 坚定持有 Tiger Global 投资组合中的 9,683,550 股经过拆分调整的 Nvidia 股票。</p>
</div><p>The only other focused billionaire who's been a buyer is Viking Global Investors' Ole Andreas Halvorsen, who opened a 2,031,985-share position last year. Coleman's stake in nearly five times the size of Halvorsen's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一另一位专注的亿万富翁买家是 Viking Global Investors 的 Ole Andreas Halvorsen，他去年开设了 2,031,985 股的头寸。Coleman 的持股几乎是 Halvorsen 的五倍。</p>
</div><p>The likely reason Coleman remains steadfastly optimistic about Nvidia's future is its utter dominance of graphics processing unit (GPU) market share in high-compute data centers. The company's Hopper (H100) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture are dominating in AI data centers, with extensive backlogs and superior pricing power allowing Nvidia to consistently blow past Wall Street's consensus expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coleman 对 Nvidia 未来的坚定乐观可能源于其在高计算数据中心中对图形处理单元（GPU）市场份额的绝对主导地位。该公司的 Hopper（H100）及其后续的 Blackwell GPU 架构在 AI 数据中心中占据主导地位，庞大的订单积压和卓越的定价能力使 Nvidia 能够持续超越华尔街的共识预期。</p>
</div><p>The scarcity of high-powered AI-GPUs has also worked in Nvidia's favor. Even with world-leading chip fabrication company <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> rapidly ramping up its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate capacity, which is necessary for the packaging of high-bandwidth memory in AI-accelerated data centers, Nvidia and its competitors can't sell AI-GPUs fast enough. Having the fastest and most in-demand hardware has allowed Nvidia to charge between a 100% to 300% per-unit premium to its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高性能 AI-GPU 的稀缺性也对 Nvidia 有利。即使全球领先的芯片制造公司 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong> 正在迅速提升其芯片 - 晶圆 - 基板的生产能力，这对于在 AI 加速的数据中心中包装高带宽内存是必要的，Nvidia 及其竞争对手也无法快速销售 AI-GPU。拥有最快和最受欢迎的硬件使 Nvidia 能够对其同行收取 100% 到 300% 的单价溢价。</p>
</div><p>Chase Coleman's love for innovation is likely playing a role in his desire to hang onto his fund's entire 9.68-million-share Nvidia stake, as well. The newly introduced Blackwell GPU is considerably more energy efficient than its predecessor, but it's designed to notably speed up computation for generative AI and quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Chase Coleman 对创新的热爱可能也在促使他希望保留其基金的全部 9.68 百万股 Nvidia 股份。新推出的 Blackwell GPU 在能效方面显著优于其前身，但它的设计旨在显著加速生成性 AI 和量子计算的计算。</p>
</div><p>Thus far, Coleman's optimism and unwillingness to sell a single share have paid off, <em>big-time</em>!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，Coleman 的乐观态度和不愿出售一股的决心已经得到了丰厚的回报！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIxODgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812188%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Most billionaires are wary of Nvidia stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大多数亿万富翁对 Nvidia 股票持谨慎态度</h2>
</div><p>But there are two sides to every coin, and the vast majority of billionaire money managers have been net sellers of Nvidia stock. Despite the company's well-defined competitive advantages and the superior computing speed of its Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, billionaires Philippe Laffont, David Tepper, Stephen Mandel, and Stanley Druckenmiller have likely homed in on a few glaring flaws.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每个硬币都有两面，绝大多数亿万富翁资金管理者一直是 Nvidia 股票的净卖家。尽管该公司具有明确的竞争优势以及其 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的卓越计算速度，但亿万富翁 Philippe Laffont、David Tepper、Stephen Mandel 和 Stanley Druckenmiller 可能已经注意到了一些明显的缺陷。</p>
</div><p>Arguably the most obvious is the expectation that competition will pick up and continually strip away Nvidia's monopoly like market share in enterprise AI-data centers. While the focus tends to be on the direct competitors that are producing AI-GPUs of their own (e.g., <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>), the bigger worry might come from Nvidia's own top customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最明显的可能是对竞争将加剧的预期，这将不断削弱 Nvidia 在企业 AI 数据中心的垄断市场份额。虽然焦点往往集中在那些生产自己 AI-GPU 的直接竞争对手（例如 <strong>超威半导体</strong>）上，但更大的担忧可能来自 Nvidia 自身的顶级客户。</p>
</div><p>Over the last two years, Wall Street's AI darling has secured some mammoth orders from most members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven.&#34; But many of these top customers by net sales are developing AI chips of their own that can assist with generative AI solutions and the training of large language models. Even though these internally developed solutions may not be as fast as Nvidia's hardware, they're bound to be substantially cheaper and more readily available. It's a recipe for Nvidia to lose out on valuable data center real estate beyond 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年中，华尔街的 AI 宠儿获得了来自 “大七” 大多数成员的巨额订单。但许多这些按净销售额计算的顶级客户正在开发自己的 AI 芯片，以帮助生成性 AI 解决方案和大型语言模型的训练。尽管这些内部开发的解决方案可能没有 Nvidia 的硬件那么快，但它们必然会便宜得多且更容易获得。这使得 Nvidia 在 2025 年之后可能会失去宝贵的数据中心市场份额。</p>
</div><p>This billionaire quartet might also have reservations about a possible AI bubble forming. For more than 30 years, every game-changing technology/innovation, including the internet, has endured a bubble-bursting event. This is a reflection of investors consistently overestimating how quickly a new technology will be adopted on a mainstream basis and gain utility. It leads to lofty expectations that are, eventually, not met, and the bursting of a bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这四位亿万富翁可能对可能形成的人工智能泡沫有所保留。在过去的 30 多年里，每一项颠覆性的技术/创新，包括互联网，都经历过泡沫破裂事件。这反映了投资者一贯高估新技术在主流市场上被采纳和获得实用性的速度。这导致了最终未能实现的高期望，以及泡沫的破裂。</p>
</div><p>No stock has benefited more directly from the rise of AI than Nvidia, with more than 88% of its net sales deriving from its data center segment in fiscal 2025 (ended Jan. 26, 2025). If an AI bubble were to form and burst, it's logical to expect Nvidia stock to take it on the chin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有哪只股票比英伟达更直接地受益于人工智能的崛起，预计到 2025 财年（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日），其净销售额中超过 88% 来自数据中心部门。如果人工智能泡沫形成并破裂，英伟达的股票很可能会受到重创。</p>
</div><p>At best, Nvidia has a long way to go before it grows into its current valuation following its parabolic move higher. At worst, shareholders could be facing an elevator-like move lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>充其量，英伟达在经历了其抛物线式的上涨后，仍需很长时间才能与其当前估值相匹配。最糟糕的情况下，股东可能面临类似电梯般的下跌。</p>
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Meet One of the Only Billionaire Money Managers Who Isn't Selling Nvidia Stock

- 美国亿万富翁投资者的 13F 文件揭示了他们的股票买卖情况。  
- 大多数亿万富翁经理对 Nvidia 股票持卖出态度，担心竞争加剧。  
- Chase Coleman 仍持有 Nvidia 股票，因其在 AI 数据中心的市场主导地位。

认识一下为数不多的没有出售英伟达股票的亿万富翁基金经理之一