<p>一些投资者正在密切关注他们所持有的股票，并问自己是否能够承受经济放缓的影响。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对贸易伙伴的关税威胁以及美联储最近关于经济不确定性的评论引发了人们的担忧。</p>
<p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -2.19%) 的投资者也未能幸免于这些担忧。自年初以来，亚马逊的股票已经下跌了 8%。但这次抛售是否过度反应了呢？</p>
<p>让我们考虑一下亚马逊在未来 12 个月可能面临的一些障碍，以及公司可能继续增长的一些方式。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE2NTY1NTg3NC0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE2NTY1NTg3NC0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>对亚马逊的悲观展望</h2>
<p>一些经济学家担心，特朗普总统可能愿意发动贸易战，最终可能会使美国陷入衰退。<strong>摩根大通</strong> 最近将其对今年发生衰退的概率预测从 30% 上调至 40%。</p>
<p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近在谈到经济时表示，经济&#34;不确定性非常高&#34;，这进一步加剧了人们对衰退的担忧。1 月份，消费者支出首次下降，显示出美国人正在减少消费。</p>
<p>亚马逊按收入计算的最大业务是其北美电子商务销售。该部门在第四季度的销售额达到了 1156 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 10%。但根据美联储的说法，消费者支出正在减缓，消费者信心也在减弱。如果发生全面衰退甚至放缓，可能会导致美国人进一步收紧开支。</p>
<h2>对亚马逊的乐观展望</h2>
<p>尽管对消费者支出在今年放缓的担忧是合理的，但并不能保证这会影响亚马逊的收入和利润。即使在经济低迷时期，亚马逊也是一家具有韧性的公司。</p>
<p>例如，在 2008 年金融危机期间，该公司的销售额增长了 29%，在 COVID 疫情的第一年，其收入增长了 22%。人们几乎可以在亚马逊的市场上购买到他们所需的任何东西。在经济下行期间，客户可能会改变他们在平台上的消费习惯，但不会完全放弃。</p>
<p>亚马逊在电子商务领域占据主导地位，市场份额约为 40%。这远远超过了其最接近的竞争对手 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，后者的市场份额约为 5%。即使在衰退期间，美国人也不太可能停止在线购买商品，因此这一强势地位使亚马逊在应对放缓时占据了优势。</p>
<p>虽然我主要关注亚马逊的电子商务业务，但该公司一半的运营收入来自其云计算服务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。这一部门应该有助于推动亚马逊的增长，因为公司正在加大对人工智能云计算的支出。</p>
<p><strong>高盛</strong> 估计，未来五年全球人工智能云计算销售额将达到 2 万亿美元，而亚马逊肯定会受益。该公司在云市场中占据 30% 的份额，<strong>微软</strong> 以 21% 位居第二。公司们目前正处于人工智能竞赛中，即使在经济下行期间，也不太可能停止支出以保持竞争优势。</p>
<h2>最可能的情景</h2>
<p>我认为亚马逊并非对严重的经济放缓免疫，但该公司在云计算和电子商务中的主导地位可能会在衰退发生时减轻冲击。</p>
<p>更重要的是，长期投资者应该记住，购买股票意味着你对公司的前景持乐观态度，预计未来许多年都会如此。即使我们面临放缓，亚马逊的股票现在也比几个月前便宜。</p>
<p>现在以折扣价购买股票，即使未来仍有更多不确定性，也可能证明是一个明智的举动。亚马逊在云计算和电子商务领域的领先地位不会很快消失。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票今年因经济放缓的担忧下跌了 8%，市场对潜在贸易战和消费者支出下降表示担忧。然而，亚马逊在电子商务和云计算领域的强大地位可能帮助其度过经济衰退。历史上，该公司在经济低迷期间也曾实现销售增长。分析师建议，尽管存在不确定性，现在投资亚马逊可能是有利的，因为其股票目前价格较低，且其市场主导地位预计将持续</p>

<p>Some investors are looking closely at the stocks they own and asking themselves if they could weather an economic slowdown. U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs against trading partners and recent comments by the Federal Reserve about uncertainty in the economy are sparking fears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者正在密切关注他们所持有的股票，并问自己是否能够承受经济放缓的影响。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对贸易伙伴的关税威胁以及美联储最近关于经济不确定性的评论引发了人们的担忧。</p>
</div><p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.19%) investors aren't immune from the concerns. Amazon's stock has tumbled 8% since the beginning of the year. But is the sell-off an overreaction?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -2.19%) 的投资者也未能幸免于这些担忧。自年初以来，亚马逊的股票已经下跌了 8%。但这次抛售是否过度反应了呢？</p>
</div><p>Let's consider some of the hurdles Amazon could face over the next 12 months, as well as some likely ways the company may continue growing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们考虑一下亚马逊在未来 12 个月可能面临的一些障碍，以及公司可能继续增长的一些方式。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIyNjUvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMjE2NTY1NTg3NC0xMjAxeDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812265%2Fgettyimages-2165655874-1201x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The pessimistic outlook for Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对亚马逊的悲观展望</h2>
</div><p>Some economists are concerned that President Trump's potential willingness to start trade wars could eventually tip the U.S. into a recession. <strong>J.P. Morgan</strong> recently changed its prediction on the probability of a recession occurring this year, from 30% likelihood to 40% currently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些经济学家担心，特朗普总统可能愿意发动贸易战，最终可能会使美国陷入衰退。<strong>摩根大通</strong> 最近将其对今年发生衰退的概率预测从 30% 上调至 40%。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently added some fuel to the recession fears fire when he said that economic &#34;uncertainty is remarkably high.&#34; Consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years in January, indicating that Americans are pulling back on purchases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近在谈到经济时表示，经济&#34;不确定性非常高&#34;，这进一步加剧了人们对衰退的担忧。1 月份，消费者支出首次下降，显示出美国人正在减少消费。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's largest business by revenue is its North American e-commerce sales. That segment brought in $115.6 billion in sales in the fourth quarter, a 10% increase from the year-ago quarter. But consumer spending is moderating and consumer confidence is weakening, according to the Fed. If a full-blown recession or even a slowdown occurs, it could result in Americans tightening their belts further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊按收入计算的最大业务是其北美电子商务销售。该部门在第四季度的销售额达到了 1156 亿美元，比去年同期增长了 10%。但根据美联储的说法，消费者支出正在减缓，消费者信心也在减弱。如果发生全面衰退甚至放缓，可能会导致美国人进一步收紧开支。</p>
</div><h2>The optimistic view of Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>对亚马逊的乐观展望</h2>
</div><p>While there are legitimate concerns about consumer spending slowing this year, there's no guarantee it'll affect Amazon's top or bottom lines. Amazon is a resilient company, even during dismal economic times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对消费者支出在今年放缓的担忧是合理的，但并不能保证这会影响亚马逊的收入和利润。即使在经济低迷时期，亚马逊也是一家具有韧性的公司。</p>
</div><p>For example, the company's sales rose 29% during the 2008 financial crisis, and in the first year of the COVID pandemic, its revenue increased 22%. People can buy nearly anything they need on Amazon's marketplace. During downturns, customers may shift their spending habits on the platform, but not abandon it entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在 2008 年金融危机期间，该公司的销售额增长了 29%，在 COVID 疫情的第一年，其收入增长了 22%。人们几乎可以在亚马逊的市场上购买到他们所需的任何东西。在经济下行期间，客户可能会改变他们在平台上的消费习惯，但不会完全放弃。</p>
</div><p>Amazon holds a dominant e-commerce position, with about 40% market share. That easily outpaces its closest rival, <strong>Walmart</strong>, which has about 5% of the market. Americans aren't likely to stop buying goods online even during a recession, so this strong position gives Amazon the upper hand in riding out a slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在电子商务领域占据主导地位，市场份额约为 40%。这远远超过了其最接近的竞争对手 <strong>沃尔玛</strong>，后者的市场份额约为 5%。即使在衰退期间，美国人也不太可能停止在线购买商品，因此这一强势地位使亚马逊在应对放缓时占据了优势。</p>
</div><p>And while I've focused mostly on Amazon's e-commerce business, the company makes half of its operating income from its cloud computing services, Amazon Web Services (AWS). This segment should help fuel Amazon's growth, because companies are ramping up artificial intelligence cloud computing spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我主要关注亚马逊的电子商务业务，但该公司一半的运营收入来自其云计算服务——亚马逊网络服务（AWS）。这一部门应该有助于推动亚马逊的增长，因为公司正在加大对人工智能云计算的支出。</p>
</div><p><strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> estimates that global AI cloud computing sales will reach $2 trillion over the next five years, and Amazon is sure to benefit. The company holds 30% of the cloud market, with <strong>Microsoft</strong> in second place with 21%. Companies are locked in an AI race right now, and even a downturn is unlikely to stop them from spending to stay ahead of the competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 估计，未来五年全球人工智能云计算销售额将达到 2 万亿美元，而亚马逊肯定会受益。该公司在云市场中占据 30% 的份额，<strong>微软</strong> 以 21% 位居第二。公司们目前正处于人工智能竞赛中，即使在经济下行期间，也不太可能停止支出以保持竞争优势。</p>
</div><h2>The most likely scenario</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最可能的情景</h2>
</div><p>I don't think Amazon is immune from a severe economic slowdown, but the company's dominant position in cloud computing and e-commerce can likely soften the blow if a recession occurs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为亚马逊并非对严重的经济放缓免疫，但该公司在云计算和电子商务中的主导地位可能会在衰退发生时减轻冲击。</p>
</div><p>More importantly, long-term investors should remember that buying a stock means you have an optimistic outlook for the company for many years to come. Even if we get a slowdown, Amazon's shares are cheaper than they were just a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，长期投资者应该记住，购买股票意味着你对公司的前景持乐观态度，预计未来许多年都会如此。即使我们面临放缓，亚马逊的股票现在也比几个月前便宜。</p>
</div><p>Buying the stock now, at a discount, could prove to be a smart move even if there's more uncertainty down the road. Amazon's lead in cloud computing and e-commerce isn't going away anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在以折扣价购买股票，即使未来仍有更多不确定性，也可能证明是一个明智的举动。亚马逊在云计算和电子商务领域的领先地位不会很快消失。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 投资者担忧经济放缓，亚马逊股价年初以来下跌 8%。  
- 经济不确定性加剧，消费者支出首次下降，可能影响亚马逊销售。  
- 然而，亚马逊在云计算和电商领域的主导地位有助于其抵御经济冲击。  

亚马逊股票一年后会达到什么水平？