<p>作者：Angela Palumbo</p>
<p>迪士尼的《狮子王》教会观众 “hakuna matata” 意味着无忧无虑，但随着消费者信心下降和竞争加剧，投资者却感到担忧。</p>
<p>华特迪士尼公司的股价今年已下跌 12%，跌至不到 100 美元，而标准普尔 500 指数则下跌了 4.6%。随着公司在主题公园进行重大更新并推出新一批游轮，消费者感到经济压力加大。</p>
<p>最新的零售销售报告低于预期，消费者信心正在下滑。经济环境不确定，新关税政策即将生效，通货膨胀依然顽固。本月早些时候，几家航空公司下调了当前季度的业绩预期，原因是消费者信心减弱。</p>
<p>竞争也在加剧。佛罗里达的环球影城进行了重大更新；其新的 Epic Universe 主题公园计划于 5 月开幕。顾客可能会选择在那儿度假，而不是在华特迪士尼世界。</p>
<p>尽管如此，BofA 证券和摩根大通的分析师对迪士尼的体验部门的短期表现仍持乐观态度。</p>
<p>迪士尼的体验部门包括主题公园和游轮，是公司运营收入的最大贡献者。今年 2 月，公司报告称第一季度体验运营收入受到负面影响。国内公园与体验的运营收入在经历飓风和游轮预开支后下降了 5%。</p>
<p>BofA 分析师 Jessica Reif Ehrlich 对该部门的反弹充满信心。她在周五的研究报告中写道，第二季度将反映出 “体验部门运营收入的逐步改善，随后在第三季度和第四季度加速”，这得益于与去年相比，去年受到前往巴黎奥运会的旅行转移和顽固通胀的影响。</p>
<p>Ehrlich 对迪士尼的评级为买入，目标价为 140 美元，她对公司最新游轮迪士尼宝藏号的表现也充满信心，该游轮于 12 月启航。迪士尼计划在未来几年增加更多游轮。</p>
<p>摩根大通的 David Karnovsky 对迪士尼的评级为增持，目标价为 130 美元。他对体验部门也持乐观态度，并在 3 月 11 日的报告中写道：“我们对该部门的长期盈利能力持乐观态度，因为资本支出将投入到新的产能和游轮中，定价也将进一步优化。”</p>
<p>迪士尼在 8 月宣布了其主题公园的一些重大更新。公司在 D23 活动中表示，迪士尼世界的魔法王国将进行 “有史以来最大的土地扩展”，包括基于迪士尼反派和电影《汽车总动员》的新景点。好莱坞影城也将新增《怪兽电力公司》的景点。</p>
<p>“计划中的迪士尼公园扩展在很大程度上依赖于受欢迎的知识产权，应该能激励新游客和回头客的到访，” Karnovsky 写道。</p>
<p>与此同时，投资者将不得不决定是否要继续这趟旅程。</p>
<p>请联系 Angela Palumbo，邮箱：angela.palumbo@dowjones.com</p>
<p>此内容由 Barron's 创作，Barron's 由道琼斯公司运营。Barron's 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>

迪士尼

<p>迪士尼的股票今年下跌了 12%，原因是消费者信心减弱以及来自环球影业的竞争加剧。尽管经济环境严峻，体验部门的营业收入也有所下降，但美银和摩根大通的分析师对迪士尼的复苏仍持乐观态度。他们预测，随着新景点和游轮的推出，体验部门将会有所改善。美银给予迪士尼 “买入” 评级，目标价为 140 美元，而摩根大通则给予 “增持” 评级，目标价为 130 美元。对迪士尼乐园的重大更新也预计将提升游客量</p>

<p>By Angela Palumbo</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Angela Palumbo</p>
</div><p>Disney's Lion King taught viewers that hakuna matata means no worries, but investors are worried about the stock as consumer confidence wanes and competition heats up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼的《狮子王》教会观众 “hakuna matata” 意味着无忧无虑，但随着消费者信心下降和竞争加剧，投资者却感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Walt Disney have dropped 12% this year to less than $100 while the S&amp;P 500 has declined 4.6%. As the company puts more money into major updates of its theme parks and introduces a new fleet of cruise ships, consumers are feeling pinched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华特迪士尼公司的股价今年已下跌 12%，跌至不到 100 美元，而标准普尔 500 指数则下跌了 4.6%。随着公司在主题公园进行重大更新并推出新一批游轮，消费者感到经济压力加大。</p>
</div><p>The latest retail sales report came in below expectations and consumer sentiment is sliding. The economic environment is uncertain with new tariff policies taking effect soon and inflation remaining sticky. Several airline companies cut guidance for the current quarter earlier this month, citing weaker consumer confidence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的零售销售报告低于预期，消费者信心正在下滑。经济环境不确定，新关税政策即将生效，通货膨胀依然顽固。本月早些时候，几家航空公司下调了当前季度的业绩预期，原因是消费者信心减弱。</p>
</div><p>Competition is also picking up. Universal Studios in Florida underwent a major update; its new Epic Universe theme park is scheduled to open in May. Customers may choose to spend their vacation there instead of at Walt Disney World.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争也在加剧。佛罗里达的环球影城进行了重大更新；其新的 Epic Universe 主题公园计划于 5 月开幕。顾客可能会选择在那儿度假，而不是在华特迪士尼世界。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at BofA Securities and J.P. Morgan are still optimistic about the near-term performance of Disney's experiences sector, though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，BofA 证券和摩根大通的分析师对迪士尼的体验部门的短期表现仍持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>Disney's experiences segment includes theme parks and cruises and is the company's largest contributor to operating income. In February, the company reported a negative impact on experiences operating income for the first quarter. Domestic Parks &amp; Experiences operating income declined by 5% following hurricanes and cruise pre-opening expenses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼的体验部门包括主题公园和游轮，是公司运营收入的最大贡献者。今年 2 月，公司报告称第一季度体验运营收入受到负面影响。国内公园与体验的运营收入在经历飓风和游轮预开支后下降了 5%。</p>
</div><p>BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich is confident the segment can bounce back. She wrote in a research note on Friday that the second quarter will reflect a &#34;sequential improvement in the Experiences segment operating income which will subsequently accelerate in 3Q and 4Q,&#34; aided by the fact they will be compared to last year, which was impacted by diverted travel to the Paris Olympics and sticky inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BofA 分析师 Jessica Reif Ehrlich 对该部门的反弹充满信心。她在周五的研究报告中写道，第二季度将反映出 “体验部门运营收入的逐步改善，随后在第三季度和第四季度加速”，这得益于与去年相比，去年受到前往巴黎奥运会的旅行转移和顽固通胀的影响。</p>
</div><p>Ehrlich, who rates Disney a Buy with a $140 price target, is also confident in the performance of the company's newest cruise ship, the Disney Treasure, which set sail in December. Disney plans on adding more cruise ships in coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ehrlich 对迪士尼的评级为买入，目标价为 140 美元，她对公司最新游轮迪士尼宝藏号的表现也充满信心，该游轮于 12 月启航。迪士尼计划在未来几年增加更多游轮。</p>
</div><p>J.P. Morgan's David Karnovsky rates Disney as Overweight with a $130 price target. He's also optimistic about the experiences sector and wrote in a note on March 11 that &#34;we're bullish on the long-term earnings power of this segment as capex is deployed into new capacity and cruises, and pricing is further refined.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通的 David Karnovsky 对迪士尼的评级为增持，目标价为 130 美元。他对体验部门也持乐观态度，并在 3 月 11 日的报告中写道：“我们对该部门的长期盈利能力持乐观态度，因为资本支出将投入到新的产能和游轮中，定价也将进一步优化。”</p>
</div><p>Disney announced some major updates to its theme parks in August. The company said at its D23 event that the Magic Kingdom park in Disney World will get its &#34;largest land expansion ever,&#34; including the addition of attractions based on Disney villains and the movie Cars. The Hollywood Studios park is also getting new Monsters, Inc. attractions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迪士尼在 8 月宣布了其主题公园的一些重大更新。公司在 D23 活动中表示，迪士尼世界的魔法王国将进行 “有史以来最大的土地扩展”，包括基于迪士尼反派和电影《汽车总动员》的新景点。好莱坞影城也将新增《怪兽电力公司》的景点。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Planned Disney parks expansions lean heavily on popular IP and should provide incentive for new and repeat visitation,&#34; Karnovsky wrote.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“计划中的迪士尼公园扩展在很大程度上依赖于受欢迎的知识产权，应该能激励新游客和回头客的到访，” Karnovsky 写道。</p>
</div><p>In the meantime, investors will have to decide whether or not they want to stay on this ride.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，投资者将不得不决定是否要继续这趟旅程。</p>
</div><p>Write to Angela Palumbo at angela.palumbo@dowjones.com</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>请联系 Angela Palumbo，邮箱：angela.palumbo@dowjones.com</p>
</div><p>This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 Barron's 创作，Barron's 由道琼斯公司运营。Barron's 与道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div>

Disney Stock Is Under Pressure. Why Wall Street Is Singing Hakuna Matata.

- 迪士尼股价今年下跌 12%，消费者信心减弱，竞争加剧。  
- 主题公园和邮轮是迪士尼最大收入来源，第一季度运营收入受影响。  
- 分析师对迪士尼体验部门的短期表现持乐观态度，预计将逐步改善。

迪士尼股票承压。为什么华尔街在唱《无忧无虑》？