<p>数字广告巨头 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -4.84%)(GOOGL -4.81%)、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -4.32%) 和 <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -4.40%) 的股票在周五暴跌，截至东部时间下午 1:30，分别下跌了 4.6%、3.5% 和 4.5%。</p>
<p>起初，这一下跌似乎极为严重。这些公司都是大型、财务稳健的行业领导者。此外，今天并没有太多公司特定的新闻。那么，究竟发生了什么？</p>
<p>基本上，市场仍然受到特朗普政府关税政策规模和范围的不确定性困扰，以及这些政策对经济状态的潜在残余影响。今天发布了两项额外的经济数据，均令人失望，进一步加重了低迷的情绪。这使得市场再次下跌，因为人们似乎越来越预期消费者支出将放缓，这可能会导致广告支出随之下降。</p>
<h2>不确定性足以暂停广告支出</h2>
<p>今天，联邦储备委员会首选的通胀指标——2 月份的个人消费支出指数（PCE）发布，其中 “核心” 数据剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格，同比增幅为 2.8%，环比增幅为 0.4%。这些数字均高于预期。</p>
<p>此外，备受关注的密歇根大学 3 月份消费者信心指数也发布，结果同样不如预期。调查显示，消费者信心指数为 57，同比下降 28.2%，低于经济学家预测的已经悲观的 57.9。</p>
<p>更令人担忧的是，消费者信心指数的低迷情绪似乎跨越了各个政治团体，甚至包括独立人士和共和党人。一些市场预测者将近期的负面消费者信心调查视为政治偏见，认为共和党或民主党的情绪在新政党上台时会立即下降。因此，看到这种低迷情绪蔓延到所有政党，尤其令人担忧。</p>
<p>经济放缓加上持续的通胀压力可能导致可怕的滞涨情景，这通常对资产估值非常不利。</p>
<p>在大家恐慌之前，经济是否会陷入衰退并不是一个确定的赌注。关税的影响仍然未知，政府也可能会因市场下跌而撤回部分关税政策。尽管今天消费者信心正在恶化，但关于经济的 “硬数据” 尚未显示出显著的裂痕。</p>
<p>尽管如此，普遍的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑可能会导致公司在短期内减少广告预算。这无疑会影响到 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌搜索业务和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的核心广告业务，因为这两家巨头分别是全球第一和第二大数字广告平台。尽管最近对这两家公司生成性人工智能（AI）努力的热情高涨，但这些努力是通过各自公司巨额的核心广告利润来资助的。</p>
<p>与此同时，<strong>Netflix</strong> 最近转向数字广告，在 2022 年底推出了一个低价的广告支持层，以维持其订阅和收入增长。在其最近的 2025 年展望中，<strong>Netflix</strong> 预计其广告销售将同比翻倍。因此，<strong>Netflix</strong> 也越来越依赖数字广告收入，更不用说在经济下滑时可能也会放缓的订阅收入。</p>
<h2>现在是买入抄底的时候吗？</h2>
<p>随着经济高度不确定，我们也不清楚我们是否处于或接近此次回调的底部。然而，在这三家公司中，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的市盈率仅为今年盈利预期的 17.5 倍。这个低于市场的倍数似乎相当便宜，并且是 “七大奇迹” 中最便宜的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>尽管对生成性人工智能侵蚀搜索流量和收入的担忧存在，但在 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的财务结果中似乎尚未发生。此外，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的云计算部门现在已经盈利并快速增长，承载着许多生成性人工智能公司，而 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 本身也在与其 Gemini 模型在人工智能竞赛中激烈竞争，这些模型的评价和竞争基准都在改善。</p>
<p>尽管目前围绕这三家公司存在许多不确定性，但 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 今天似乎特别便宜。但底部是否已经到来或即将到来，没人真的知道。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

奈飞

<p>由于市场对特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性以及令人失望的经济数据，Alphabet、Meta Platforms 和奈飞的股票大幅下跌。个人消费支出指数显示通胀高于预期，而消费者信心急剧下降。这一下滑引发了对广告预算可能减少的担忧，影响了 Alphabet 和 Meta 的核心业务。尽管存在不确定性，Alphabet 的股票似乎相对于其盈利预期被低估，这引发了人们对是否是时候抄底的猜测</p>

<p>Shares of digital advertising giants <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -4.84%)(GOOGL -4.81%), <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -4.32%), and <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -4.40%) were plunging on Friday, falling 4.6%, 3.5%, and 4.5%, respectively, as of 1:30 p.m. ET.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字广告巨头 <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -4.84%)(GOOGL -4.81%)、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -4.32%) 和 <strong>Netflix</strong>(NFLX -4.40%) 的股票在周五暴跌，截至东部时间下午 1:30，分别下跌了 4.6%、3.5% 和 4.5%。</p>
</div><p>At first, the downturn may seem extreme. These companies are each large, financially strong, and leaders in their respective fields. Moreover, there wasn't much in the way of company-specific news today. So, what gives?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>起初，这一下跌似乎极为严重。这些公司都是大型、财务稳健的行业领导者。此外，今天并没有太多公司特定的新闻。那么，究竟发生了什么？</p>
</div><p>Basically, the market continues to be plagued by uncertainty regarding the size and scope of the Trump administration's tariff policies and their potential residual effects on the state of the economy. Today, two additional pieces of economic data were released, with each disappointing and adding to the downbeat mood. That sent the market another leg lower, as there appears to be growing anticipation of a slowdown in consumer spending, which would likely take ad spending down along with it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本上，市场仍然受到特朗普政府关税政策规模和范围的不确定性困扰，以及这些政策对经济状态的潜在残余影响。今天发布了两项额外的经济数据，均令人失望，进一步加重了低迷的情绪。这使得市场再次下跌，因为人们似乎越来越预期消费者支出将放缓，这可能会导致广告支出随之下降。</p>
</div><h2>Uncertainty is enough to pause ad spending</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不确定性足以暂停广告支出</h2>
</div><p>Today, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) from February was released, with the &#34;core&#34; reading stripping out volatile food and energy prices, and coming in at 2.8% year over year and 0.4% month over month. Those figures were higher than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，联邦储备委员会首选的通胀指标——2 月份的个人消费支出指数（PCE）发布，其中 “核心” 数据剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格，同比增幅为 2.8%，环比增幅为 0.4%。这些数字均高于预期。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the much-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading from March was also released and also worse than expected. The survey showed a reading of 57, down 28.2% from a year ago and below the already-pessimistic 57.9 reading economists had forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，备受关注的密歇根大学 3 月份消费者信心指数也发布，结果同样不如预期。调查显示，消费者信心指数为 57，同比下降 28.2%，低于经济学家预测的已经悲观的 57.9。</p>
</div><p>What was more worrying about the consumer sentiment reading was that the downbeat mood appeared to stretch across political groups, even including Independents and Republicans. Some market forecasters have brushed off recent negative consumer sentiment surveys as politically biased, with Republicans' or Democrats' moods declining immediately when a new party takes power. So, to see the sour mood stretching across all political parties was particularly worrisome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人担忧的是，消费者信心指数的低迷情绪似乎跨越了各个政治团体，甚至包括独立人士和共和党人。一些市场预测者将近期的负面消费者信心调查视为政治偏见，认为共和党或民主党的情绪在新政党上台时会立即下降。因此，看到这种低迷情绪蔓延到所有政党，尤其令人担忧。</p>
</div><p>A slowdown in the economy combined with still-persistent inflationary pressures could lead to the dreaded stagflation scenario, which is usually really bad for asset valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济放缓加上持续的通胀压力可能导致可怕的滞涨情景，这通常对资产估值非常不利。</p>
</div><p>Before everyone panics, it's not a sure bet the economy will roll into a recession. The effects of tariffs are still unknown, and the administration could also roll back some of its tariff policies in response to the market downturn. While consumer sentiment is deteriorating today, the &#34;hard data&#34; around the economy hasn't yet shown significant cracks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在大家恐慌之前，经济是否会陷入衰退并不是一个确定的赌注。关税的影响仍然未知，政府也可能会因市场下跌而撤回部分关税政策。尽管今天消费者信心正在恶化，但关于经济的 “硬数据” 尚未显示出显著的裂痕。</p>
</div><p>Still, the mere widespread fear, uncertainty, and doubt could very well cause companies to reduce their advertising budgets in the near term. That would certainly affect Alphabet's Google Search business and Meta Platforms' core ad business, as these two giants are the No. 1 and No. 2 digital advertising platforms, respectively, on a global basis. For all of the recent enthusiasm over both companies' generative artificial intelligence (AI) efforts, those efforts are funded through each company's massive core advertising profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，普遍的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑可能会导致公司在短期内减少广告预算。这无疑会影响到 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的谷歌搜索业务和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 的核心广告业务，因为这两家巨头分别是全球第一和第二大数字广告平台。尽管最近对这两家公司生成性人工智能（AI）努力的热情高涨，但这些努力是通过各自公司巨额的核心广告利润来资助的。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Netflix has more recently turned to digital ads, introducing a lower-priced, ad-supported tier in late 2022 to maintain its subscriber and revenue growth. In its recent 2025 outlook, Netflix anticipated it would double its advertising sales year over year. So, Netflix is also increasingly dependent on digital advertising dollars, not to mention subscriptions, which could also slow in an economic downturn.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，<strong>Netflix</strong> 最近转向数字广告，在 2022 年底推出了一个低价的广告支持层，以维持其订阅和收入增长。在其最近的 2025 年展望中，<strong>Netflix</strong> 预计其广告销售将同比翻倍。因此，<strong>Netflix</strong> 也越来越依赖数字广告收入，更不用说在经济下滑时可能也会放缓的订阅收入。</p>
</div><h2>Is it time to buy the dip?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是买入抄底的时候吗？</h2>
</div><p>As the economy remains highly uncertain, it's also unclear whether we are at or near the bottom of this pullback. However, of the three companies listed, Alphabet trades at just 17.5 this year's earnings expectations. That below-market multiple seems quite cheap and is the cheapest of the Magnificent Seven by a wide margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着经济高度不确定，我们也不清楚我们是否处于或接近此次回调的底部。然而，在这三家公司中，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的市盈率仅为今年盈利预期的 17.5 倍。这个低于市场的倍数似乎相当便宜，并且是 “七大奇迹” 中最便宜的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f6ded1e7544cb8b80abe5e00676b037e.png"/></p>
<p>GOOG PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOG 市盈率（前瞻性）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>While there are some concerns over generative AI eating into Search traffic and revenues, that doesn't appear to have happened yet in Alphabet's financial results. Moreover, Alphabet's cloud-computing unit is now profitable and growing fast, hosting many generative AI companies, and Alphabet itself is competing hard in the AI races with its Gemini models, which have seen improving reviews and better competitive benchmarks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管对生成性人工智能侵蚀搜索流量和收入的担忧存在，但在 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的财务结果中似乎尚未发生。此外，<strong>Alphabet</strong> 的云计算部门现在已经盈利并快速增长，承载着许多生成性人工智能公司，而 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 本身也在与其 Gemini 模型在人工智能竞赛中激烈竞争，这些模型的评价和竞争基准都在改善。</p>
</div><p>While much uncertainty swirls around all three companies at the moment, Alphabet seems to have gotten particularly cheap today. But whether the bottom is in or approaching, nobody really knows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管目前围绕这三家公司存在许多不确定性，但 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 今天似乎特别便宜。但底部是否已经到来或即将到来，没人真的知道。</p>
</div>

Why Digital Ad Giants Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Netflix Plunged Today

- 数字广告巨头 Alphabet、Meta 和 Netflix 股价大幅下跌，分别下跌 4.6%、3.5% 和 4.5%。  
- 市场对特朗普政府关税政策的不确定性加剧，导致消费者支出放缓预期。  
- 尽管经济数据不佳，Alphabet 的估值相对便宜，可能吸引投资者关注。  

为什么数字广告巨头 Alphabet、Meta Platforms 和奈飞今天暴跌