<p><strong>美国电话电报</strong>(T 0.39%) 的股东们有很多值得庆祝的事情，2025 年迄今为止，股价上涨了 24%。这家电信巨头发布了强劲的财报，增强了乐观的长期展望。与标准普尔 500 指数年初至今下跌 3% 相比，该股的出色表现显得格外突出。因此，美国电话电报在更广泛的股市波动中，成为了一个可靠的稳定来源，令市场对美国经济的强劲程度感到担忧。</p>
<p>美国电话电报的创纪录反弹能否继续，还是该挂断电话？让我们讨论一下该股在一年后的走势。</p>
<h2>2025 年的运营和财务势头</h2>
<p>距离美国电话电报完成其历史上最大的一次重组工作已经快三年了——在 2022 年剥离了华纳媒体集团。这笔交易标志着公司从媒体和娱乐业务的转型，使其能够重新聚焦于核心电信优势。这一战略转型已被证明是成功的。如今，美国电话电报的债务大幅减少，产生了更持久的现金流，获得了在 5G 和光纤基础设施等增长领域投资的灵活性。</p>
<p>截至 12 月 31 日的完整财年，美国电话电报的无线服务收入同比增长 3.5%，这得益于新增 140 万净后付费用户以及逐步的提价措施。宽带服务的势头更为强劲，年收入增长了 7.2%，其中光纤收入较 2023 年激增 18%。</p>
<p>美国电话电报指出，约 40% 的光纤客户同时拥有无线计划，较 2021 年的 35% 有所上升。这一趋势突显了其交叉销售服务和深化客户关系的能力，尤其是在这一高度有价值和忠诚的用户群体中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTI4MDMvYXR0LXN0b2NrLXByaWNlLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTI4MDMvYXR0LXN0b2NrLXByaWNlLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>对于 2025 年，美国电话电报预计将进一步增长，同时设定至少 160 亿美元的自由现金流目标，比 2024 年增加 7 亿美元。该数字不包括公司在 DIRECTV 的剩余股份，AT&amp;T 已同意出售该股份，预计在交易完成时将获得额外 76 亿美元现金，交易预计将在下半年完成。</p>
<p>或许更重要的是，市场对美国电话电报季度股息可持续性的信心不断增强，股息维持在每股 0.28 美元，提供 3.9% 的收益率。年化股息支付比率约占公司 2025 年每股收益（EPS）指导值 1.97 至 2.07 美元的 55%。此外，美国电话电报还宣布计划进行 100 亿美元的股票回购，重申其回馈股东的承诺。</p>
<h2>一些谨慎的理由</h2>
<p>在当今市场中，美国电话电报和电信行业提供了防御性定位。考虑到无线服务和互联网连接的公用事业般的重要性，预计美国电话电报的业务在经济放缓中相对不受影响。对于投资者而言，该股可能在其他因特朗普政府实施贸易关税而面临干扰的行业中提供一些缓解。</p>
<p>最终，该股的看涨理由在于，无论美国经济如何演变，美国电话电报继续产生高质量的现金流和稳定的收益。投资者似乎对此表示认同，因为股价持续上涨。</p>
<p>也就是说，投资者现在面临着权衡其高估值的挑战。美国电话电报的股票以 13.3 倍的 2025 年预期每股收益（EPS）交易，远高于去年低于 8 的便宜水平。与竞争对手 <strong>威瑞森通信</strong> 相比，其前瞻市盈率为 9.6，且股息收益率更高达 6%，美国电话电报的溢价变得越来越难以证明，这可能限制该股的上涨空间。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7142dee4e95e5eff8fa5da3ec5642253.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7142dee4e95e5eff8fa5da3ec5642253.png"/></p>
<p>T 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<h2>我对美国电话电报股票的预测</h2>
<p>权衡投资美国电话电报的利弊，尽管我认为其估值偏高，但我认为该股目前应持有。近期的巨大回报重复的可能性不大，但我预测到明年此时，股价将会略有上涨。最终，观望的投资者可能会在市场上找到其他更具价值和更大上涨潜力的股票。</p>

美国电话电报

<p>AT&T 的股票在 2025 年上涨了 24%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数的 3% 下跌。公司成功进行了重组，专注于核心电信优势，减少了债务并增加了现金流。对于 2025 年，AT&T 的自由现金流目标至少为 160 亿美元，并计划进行 100 亿美元的股票回购。然而，其前瞻市盈率为 13.3，高于竞争对手，引发了对估值的担忧。该股票被认为是持有，预计在未来一年内价格将适度上涨，因为投资者可能会在其他地方找到更好的价值</p>

<p><strong>AT&amp;T</strong>(T 0.39%) shareholders have plenty to celebrate, with the stock up 24% thus far in 2025. The telecommunications giant has presented robust earnings, reinforcing an optimistic long-term outlook. The stock's impressive performance is an outlier next to the 3% decline in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index year to date. As such, AT&amp;T has emerged as a reliable source of stability amid the broader stock market volatility that's causing concern about the strength of the U.S. economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美国电话电报</strong>(T 0.39%) 的股东们有很多值得庆祝的事情，2025 年迄今为止，股价上涨了 24%。这家电信巨头发布了强劲的财报，增强了乐观的长期展望。与标准普尔 500 指数年初至今下跌 3% 相比，该股的出色表现显得格外突出。因此，美国电话电报在更广泛的股市波动中，成为了一个可靠的稳定来源，令市场对美国经济的强劲程度感到担忧。</p>
</div><p>Can AT&amp;T's record-setting rally continue, or is it time to hang up the phone? Let's discuss where the stock could be headed one year from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国电话电报的创纪录反弹能否继续，还是该挂断电话？让我们讨论一下该股在一年后的走势。</p>
</div><h2>Operating and financial momentum into 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的运营和财务势头</h2>
</div><p>It's been nearly three years since AT&amp;T completed one of the largest restructuring efforts in its history -- spinning off the WarnerMedia group in 2022. The deal marked a pivot away from the media and entertainment business, allowing the company to refocus efforts on its core telecom strengths. This strategic pivot has proven successful. Today, AT&amp;T carries far less debt and generates more durable cash flow, gaining the flexibility to invest in growth areas like 5G and fiber optics infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>距离美国电话电报完成其历史上最大的一次重组工作已经快三年了——在 2022 年剥离了华纳媒体集团。这笔交易标志着公司从媒体和娱乐业务的转型，使其能够重新聚焦于核心电信优势。这一战略转型已被证明是成功的。如今，美国电话电报的债务大幅减少，产生了更持久的现金流，获得了在 5G 和光纤基础设施等增长领域投资的灵活性。</p>
</div><p>For the full year ended Dec. 31, AT&amp;T's wireless service revenue grew 3.5% year over year, driven by the addition of 1.4 million net postpaid subscribers coupled with gradual price hike initiatives. Broadband services saw even stronger momentum, with annual revenue rising 7.2%, led by an 18% surge in fiber revenues compared to 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 12 月 31 日的完整财年，美国电话电报的无线服务收入同比增长 3.5%，这得益于新增 140 万净后付费用户以及逐步的提价措施。宽带服务的势头更为强劲，年收入增长了 7.2%，其中光纤收入较 2023 年激增 18%。</p>
</div><p>AT&amp;T notes that approximately 40% of its fiber customers also have a wireless plan, up from 35% in 2021. This trend highlights its ability to cross-sell services and deepen customer relationships within a highly valuable and loyal subscriber base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国电话电报指出，约 40% 的光纤客户同时拥有无线计划，较 2021 年的 35% 有所上升。这一趋势突显了其交叉销售服务和深化客户关系的能力，尤其是在这一高度有价值和忠诚的用户群体中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTI4MDMvYXR0LXN0b2NrLXByaWNlLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812803%2Fatt-stock-price-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>For 2025, AT&amp;T expects further growth while setting a free-cash-flow target of at least $16 billion, an increase of $700 million compared to 2024. This figure excludes the company's remaining stake in DIRECTV, which AT&amp;T has agreed to sell, receiving an additional $7.6 billion in cash when the deal closes, expected to close in the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 2025 年，美国电话电报预计将进一步增长，同时设定至少 160 亿美元的自由现金流目标，比 2024 年增加 7 亿美元。该数字不包括公司在 DIRECTV 的剩余股份，AT&amp;T 已同意出售该股份，预计在交易完成时将获得额外 76 亿美元现金，交易预计将在下半年完成。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps even more significant is the growing confidence in the sustainability of AT&amp;T's quarterly dividend, which remains at $0.28 per share, offering a yield of 3.9%. The annualized dividend payout ratio represents approximately 55% of the company's 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $1.97 to $2.07. Additionally, AT&amp;T has announced plans to move forward with a $10 billion share repurchase, reaffirming its commitment to reward shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许更重要的是，市场对美国电话电报季度股息可持续性的信心不断增强，股息维持在每股 0.28 美元，提供 3.9% 的收益率。年化股息支付比率约占公司 2025 年每股收益（EPS）指导值 1.97 至 2.07 美元的 55%。此外，美国电话电报还宣布计划进行 100 亿美元的股票回购，重申其回馈股东的承诺。</p>
</div><h2>Some reasons for caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一些谨慎的理由</h2>
</div><p>AT&amp;T and the telecom industry offer defensive positioning in today's market. Given the utility-like importance of wireless services and internet connectivity, it's expected that AT&amp;T's business should be relatively insulated from an economic slowdown. For investors, the stock could offer some relief next to other sectors facing disruptions due to trade tariffs being implemented by the Trump administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当今市场中，美国电话电报和电信行业提供了防御性定位。考虑到无线服务和互联网连接的公用事业般的重要性，预计美国电话电报的业务在经济放缓中相对不受影响。对于投资者而言，该股可能在其他因特朗普政府实施贸易关税而面临干扰的行业中提供一些缓解。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, the bullish case for the stock is that AT&amp;T continues to generate high-quality cash flows and stable earnings regardless of how the U.S. economy evolves. Investors seem to agree given the ongoing share price rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，该股的看涨理由在于，无论美国经济如何演变，美国电话电报继续产生高质量的现金流和稳定的收益。投资者似乎对此表示认同，因为股价持续上涨。</p>
</div><p>That said, investors now face the challenge of weighing its pricey valuation. AT&amp;T shares are trading at 13.3 times its estimated 2025 EPS as a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, a significant jump from last year's bargain-level multiple below 8. Compared to rival <strong>Verizon Communications</strong>, with a forward P/E of 9.6 and a higher 6% dividend yield, AT&amp;T commands a premium that has become harder to justify, which could limit the stock's upside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，投资者现在面临着权衡其高估值的挑战。美国电话电报的股票以 13.3 倍的 2025 年预期每股收益（EPS）交易，远高于去年低于 8 的便宜水平。与竞争对手 <strong>威瑞森通信</strong> 相比，其前瞻市盈率为 9.6，且股息收益率更高达 6%，美国电话电报的溢价变得越来越难以证明，这可能限制该股的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7142dee4e95e5eff8fa5da3ec5642253.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/7142dee4e95e5eff8fa5da3ec5642253.png"/></p>
<p>T PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>T 市盈率（前瞻）数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>My prediction for AT&amp;T stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我对美国电话电报股票的预测</h2>
</div><p>Weighing the pros and cons of an investment in AT&amp;T, which appears expensive to me, I believe the stock is a hold right now. A repeat of the massive return from recent months is unlikely, but I predict shares will be trading at a modestly higher price by this time next year. Ultimately, investors sitting on the sidelines may find other stocks with better value and more upside elsewhere in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>权衡投资美国电话电报的利弊，尽管我认为其估值偏高，但我认为该股目前应持有。近期的巨大回报重复的可能性不大，但我预测到明年此时，股价将会略有上涨。最终，观望的投资者可能会在市场上找到其他更具价值和更大上涨潜力的股票。</p>
</div>

美国电话电报的股票在一年后会处于什么位置？