<p>对于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.62%）的股东来说，这一年过得相当艰难，股价大幅下跌，投资者竭尽所能地等待这家电动车制造商的增长重新加速。特斯拉的管理团队向投资者发出信号，表示 2025 年上半年将是公司过渡期，任何大幅增长都将在下半年或甚至明年出现。但投资者似乎并没有像过去那样对这一叙述抱有乐观态度。</p>
<p>当然，商业和投资中的不确定性是正常的。因此，一些机会主义投资者可能会将围绕该股票的恐惧以及特斯拉在过渡期间股价的随之回调视为投资公司的良机。这真的是一个买入机会，还是未来更深层次问题的迹象？</p>
<h2>巨大的逆风</h2>
<p>特斯拉最近的强劲增长已经戛然而止。这家由埃隆·马斯克领导的公司在 2024 年的收入同比仅增长 1%。此外，随着公司结束这一年，增长仍然不尽如人意。</p>
<p>2024 年第四季度的收入同比仅增长 2%。那么，特斯拉的核心汽车业务表现如何呢？该关键部门的收入在此期间同比下降了 8%。</p>
<p>更高的利率和不确定的经济环境对特斯拉造成了严重影响。2024 年第四季度，单位销量几乎没有增长（同比增长 2%），而汽车收入也因公司大幅降价而暴跌。</p>
<h2>大志向却缺乏销售支撑</h2>
<p>特斯拉对未来有雄心勃勃的计划。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克相信，公司正在为未来的巨大增长加速奠定基础——这一增长将由新技术驱动，如自动驾驶和类人机器人。</p>
<p>马斯克在特斯拉 2024 年第四季度的财报电话会议上表示：“我们在 2024 年进行了许多关键投资，涉及制造、人工智能和机器人技术，这些投资将在未来带来巨大的回报，巨大的。” 他说：“这实际上是如此规模，以至于难以理解。”</p>
<p>在电话会议的后期，特斯拉表示，公司计划在上半年推出一款更实惠的车型，今夏在奥斯汀启动自动驾驶网络，并在今年生产几千个名为 Optimus 的类人机器人。</p>
<p>然而，投资者似乎对特斯拉的业务在这样的经济环境中能否大幅上升表示怀疑。这些雄心壮志是在销售和生产数据挣扎的背景下提出的。</p>
<h2>保持观望的一个重要原因</h2>
<p>值得注意的是，尽管投资者对特斯拉的增长愿景的信心不如以前，但他们显然仍然有_一些_信心。否则，截至目前，公司不会拥有约 8500 亿美元的市值。此外，股票的市盈率（P/E）目前约为 130。因此，市场已经对特斯拉未来几年的收益进行了显著的预期调整。</p>
<p>当然，其股票的定价可能并不像特斯拉有潜力成为未来某天全球最有价值公司的那样，正如埃隆·马斯克在几次场合（包括公司最近的财报电话会议）中所预测的那样。然而，该股票仍然相较于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.38%）当前约 21 的市盈率，具有巨大的溢价。</p>
<p>公平地说，并非所有特斯拉的增长催化剂在这个市场中都在休息。特斯拉的能源业务正在蓬勃发展，并继续看到需求超过供应，即使销售激增。但特斯拉可能需要其核心汽车业务的重新加速，才能使投资者对该股票的乐观情绪恢复到过去的水平。</p>
<p>尽管特斯拉的长期前景可能充满希望，但仍存在重大风险。当前的挑战和估值表明，谨慎是必要的。</p>
<p>在这次回调中，股票最终看起来更像是持有而非买入，但投资者应该自行进行尽职调查，并决定他们对特斯拉未来增长计划的信心有多大。毕竟，决定股票表现的将是公司的未来（而不是过去）。对于那些不喜欢投机的人来说，这可能是一只值得放弃的股票。</p>

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票在 2025 年显著下跌，管理层表示上半年处于过渡期。尽管未来有雄心勃勃的计划，包括新技术和经济型车辆，但由于销售停滞和经济挑战，投资者信心动摇。公司的市值仍然高达 8500 亿美元，但股票的市盈率为 130，显示出溢价估值。分析师建议谨慎对待，认为股票应持有而非购买，敦促投资者在做出决策前进行自己的研究</p>

<p>It's been a rough year for <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 3.62%) shareholders, marked by a huge decline in the stock price as investors try their best to wait around for a reacceleration in the electric-car maker's growth. Tesla's management team is signaling to investors that the first half of 2025 will be a transitional period for the company, with any big growth coming in the second half of the year or even next year. But investors don't seem to be buying into the narrative with the same bullishness as they have in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 <strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 3.62%）的股东来说，这一年过得相当艰难，股价大幅下跌，投资者竭尽所能地等待这家电动车制造商的增长重新加速。特斯拉的管理团队向投资者发出信号，表示 2025 年上半年将是公司过渡期，任何大幅增长都将在下半年或甚至明年出现。但投资者似乎并没有像过去那样对这一叙述抱有乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>Of course, uncertainty is normal in business and investing. Some opportunistic investors, therefore, may see the fear surrounding the stock and the subsequent pullback in the stock price as Tesla navigates this transition as a good time to invest in the company. Is this really a buying opportunity or a sign of deeper trouble ahead?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，商业和投资中的不确定性是正常的。因此，一些机会主义投资者可能会将围绕该股票的恐惧以及特斯拉在过渡期间股价的随之回调视为投资公司的良机。这真的是一个买入机会，还是未来更深层次问题的迹象？</p>
</div><h2>Big headwinds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的逆风</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's strong growth recently has come to a screeching halt. The Elon Musk-led company saw revenue rise last year just 1% year over year in 2024. Further, growth was still unimpressive as the company exited the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉最近的强劲增长已经戛然而止。这家由埃隆·马斯克领导的公司在 2024 年的收入同比仅增长 1%。此外，随着公司结束这一年，增长仍然不尽如人意。</p>
</div><p>Fourth-quarter 2024 revenue, specifically, rose just 2% year over year. And how did Tesla's core automotive business perform? The key segment's revenue fell 8% year over year during the period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2024 年第四季度的收入同比仅增长 2%。那么，特斯拉的核心汽车业务表现如何呢？该关键部门的收入在此期间同比下降了 8%。</p>
</div><p>Higher interest rates and an uncertain economy are wreaking havoc on Tesla. Not only did unit sales barely grow in the fourth quarter of 2024 (they grew 2% year over year), but automotive revenue also tanked as the company aggressively cut prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的利率和不确定的经济环境对特斯拉造成了严重影响。2024 年第四季度，单位销量几乎没有增长（同比增长 2%），而汽车收入也因公司大幅降价而暴跌。</p>
</div><h2>Big aspirations without the sales to back them up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大志向却缺乏销售支撑</h2>
</div><p>Tesla has ambitious plans for the future. CEO Elon Musk believes the company has been laying the groundwork for a huge acceleration in growth in the future -- one driven by new technologies, like autonomous driving and humanoid robots.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉对未来有雄心勃勃的计划。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克相信，公司正在为未来的巨大增长加速奠定基础——这一增长将由新技术驱动，如自动驾驶和类人机器人。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We made many critical investments in 2024 in manufacturing, AI [artificial intelligence] and robotics that will bear immense fruit in the future, immense.&#34; Musk said in Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call. &#34;Like it's, in fact, to such a scale that it is difficult to comprehend.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克在特斯拉 2024 年第四季度的财报电话会议上表示：“我们在 2024 年进行了许多关键投资，涉及制造、人工智能和机器人技术，这些投资将在未来带来巨大的回报，巨大的。” 他说：“这实际上是如此规模，以至于难以理解。”</p>
</div><p>Later in the call, Tesla said the company plans to roll out a more affordable vehicle during the first half of the year, launch an autonomous driving network this summer in Austin, and produce around several thousand humanoid robots -- called Optimus -- this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在电话会议的后期，特斯拉表示，公司计划在上半年推出一款更实惠的车型，今夏在奥斯汀启动自动驾驶网络，并在今年生产几千个名为 Optimus 的类人机器人。</p>
</div><p>However, investors seem to have doubts that Tesla's business can rise sharply higher in an economy like this. These aspirations come amid a backdrop of struggling sales and production figures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者似乎对特斯拉的业务在这样的经济环境中能否大幅上升表示怀疑。这些雄心壮志是在销售和生产数据挣扎的背景下提出的。</p>
</div><h2>One big reason to remain on the sidelines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保持观望的一个重要原因</h2>
</div><p>It's worth noting that even though investors don't have as much faith in Tesla's growth aspirations as they used to, they clearly still have <em>some</em> faith. Otherwise, the company wouldn't boast a market capitalization of about $850 billion, as of this writing. In addition, the stock's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) currently sits at approximately 130. The Street, therefore, has priced in a significant step change in Tesla's earnings in the coming years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，尽管投资者对特斯拉的增长愿景的信心不如以前，但他们显然仍然有_一些_信心。否则，截至目前，公司不会拥有约 8500 亿美元的市值。此外，股票的市盈率（P/E）目前约为 130。因此，市场已经对特斯拉未来几年的收益进行了显著的预期调整。</p>
</div><p>Sure, its shares may not be priced like Tesla is on its way to potentially becoming the most valuable company in the world one day, as Elon Musk has predicted on several occasions (including the company's most recent earnings call). However, the stock still carries a huge premium over the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s (^GSPC 0.38%) current price-to-earnings multiple of about 21.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，其股票的定价可能并不像特斯拉有潜力成为未来某天全球最有价值公司的那样，正如埃隆·马斯克在几次场合（包括公司最近的财报电话会议）中所预测的那样。然而，该股票仍然相较于 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC 0.38%）当前约 21 的市盈率，具有巨大的溢价。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, not all of Tesla's growth catalysts are taking a breather in this market. Tesla's energy business is charging ahead and continues to see demand exceed supply, even as sales soar. But Tesla will likely need a reacceleration in its core automotive business for investors' bullishness on the stock to return to levels seen in the past.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地说，并非所有特斯拉的增长催化剂在这个市场中都在休息。特斯拉的能源业务正在蓬勃发展，并继续看到需求超过供应，即使销售激增。但特斯拉可能需要其核心汽车业务的重新加速，才能使投资者对该股票的乐观情绪恢复到过去的水平。</p>
</div><p>While Tesla's long-term prospects may hold promise, there are significant risks. The current challenges and valuation suggest that caution is warranted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉的长期前景可能充满希望，但仍存在重大风险。当前的挑战和估值表明，谨慎是必要的。</p>
</div><p>Shares ultimately look more like a hold on this pullback than a buy, but investors should do their own due diligence and decide for themselves how much they believe in Tesla's future growth plans. After all, it will be the company's future (not its past) that will determine how well the stock will perform. For those who don't like to speculate, this may be a stock worth passing on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这次回调中，股票最终看起来更像是持有而非买入，但投资者应该自行进行尽职调查，并决定他们对特斯拉未来增长计划的信心有多大。毕竟，决定股票表现的将是公司的未来（而不是过去）。对于那些不喜欢投机的人来说，这可能是一只值得放弃的股票。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Is Down Big in 2025. Buy, Sell, or Hold?

- 特斯拉股东面临股价大幅下跌，管理层称 2025 年上半年为过渡期。  
- 2024 年收入仅增长 1%，核心汽车业务收入下降 8%。  
- 投资者对特斯拉未来增长计划持怀疑态度，当前估值风险较大。  

特斯拉股票在 2025 年大幅下跌。是买入、卖出还是持有？