<p>这是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 2.17%）的世界，我们只是生活在其中。至少，有时候感觉就是这样，因为这家科技巨头和电子商务先锋已经变得如此庞大。去年，亚马逊创造了 6380 亿美元的收入，现在在销售额方面是全球最大的公司之一，在市值方面也接近顶尖。</p>
<p>这家公司是否已经达到了巅峰，还是增长的派对仍在继续？让我们深入数据，看看亚马逊的股票在五年后可能会交易到什么水平。</p>
<h2>电子商务的稳定增长</h2>
<p>自成立约 30 年前以来，亚马逊已成为美国电子商务的主导者。推动其平台持续增长的原因在于，电子商务在整体零售市场中的份额一直在不断增长，而面对面销售则在减少。这使得亚马逊在 2024 年的北美零售销售额达到了 3890 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，如果我们查看数据，电子商务在美国零售销售总额中的比例仍然低于 20%。排除在 COVID-19 疫情高峰期间的短暂急剧上升，以及随着社交距离措施的减少而回落至之前曲线的情况，这一数字多年来稳步上升，从 2000 年的不到 1% 上升到今天的 16.5%。面对面零售不会完全消失。然而，我认为五年后电子商务在零售销售中的比例可能会高于今天，这将为亚马逊的平台提供助力。</p>
<p>结合北美经济和消费者支出的增长，我认为亚马逊的零售部门在非衰退期的收入年增长率至少可以达到 10%。更好的是，公司现在已经扩展了一些高利润的部门，这些部门在这些越来越大的收入数字中将提供更大的利润潜力。这些包括电子商务列表和媒体的广告、第三方卖家服务以及订阅服务，这些合计现在占亚马逊零售部门总收入的更大比例。</p>
<p>将所有因素结合在一起，我认为亚马逊的电子商务部门在未来五年内有望提升其盈利能力。</p>
<h2>巨大的人工智能机会？</h2>
<p>接下来，我们需要考虑亚马逊庞大帝国的第二个支柱：云计算。其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）部门开创了云模型，使公司能够轻松外包其数据中心、计算和软件需求。如今，AWS 每年创造超过 1000 亿美元的收入，盈利能力远高于电子商务，2024 年运营收入约为 400 亿美元。</p>
<p>现在，该部门的增长受到人工智能（AI）工具使用增加的推动。像 Anthropic 这样的新 AI 服务正在与 AWS 合作，因为它可以提供其新大型语言模型所需的处理能力。更多的计算需求意味着对 AWS 的支出增加，这加速了其收入增长。在 2024 年结束时，该部门的收入同比增长了 19%，在第四季度达到了 288 亿美元。</p>
<p>我们仅处于人工智能支出爆炸的头几年。这个市场可能会经历低迷期，但预计数千亿美元——甚至长期可能达到数万亿美元——将用于人工智能基础设施。这为云计算服务的领导者提供了巨大的机会，并应在未来五年内为 AWS 带来可观的盈利增长。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2cde11ff95275f7ec42a4753bee7e48a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2cde11ff95275f7ec42a4753bee7e48a.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 运营利润率（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<h2>亚马逊的股票在五年后会在哪里？</h2>
<p>截至目前，亚马逊的市值约为 2 万亿美元，使其成为全球第四大公司。</p>
<p>根据上述部分的分析，我预计亚马逊的收入在未来五年将每年增长至少 10%。假设其年均增长率为 12%。从 2024 年的 6380 亿美元收入来看，五年后将达到 1.1 万亿美元的年收入。这是一个巨大的数字，但考虑到其最终市场的规模，这是一个可实现的目标。</p>
<p>去年，亚马逊的运营利润率为 10.75%。随着 AWS 等高利润服务的增长速度快于整体销售，亚马逊应该能够在未来五年内扩大其利润率。我相信 15% 的利润率是合理可达的，但如果最终更高也不会让我感到惊讶。</p>
<p>在 1.1 万亿美元的收入上实现 15% 的利润率将使其年盈利达到 1690 亿美元。如果保持当前的股价，这将使亚马逊的市盈率（P/E）降到 12 以下。我认为像亚马逊这样高质量的企业应该以更高的倍数交易。假设市场同意这一点，亚马逊的股票在五年后可能会交易在更高的水平上。虽然不会是 10 倍的增长，因为公司的成熟度，但现在这只股票仍然是投资者的买入机会。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊预计将在未来五年继续保持增长轨迹，收入预计每年增长至少 10%，可能达到 1.1 万亿美元。公司的电子商务部门受益于在线零售份额的上升，而其 AWS 部门由于人工智能支出的增加，预计将实现显著增长。预计利润率为 15%，亚马逊可能实现 1690 亿美元的年收益，这表明其股票表现前景乐观</p>

<p>It's <strong>Amazon</strong>'s (AMZN 2.17%) world, we're just living in it. At least, sometimes that's how it feels with how large the technology giant and e-commerce pioneer has gotten. Generating $638 billion in revenue last year, Amazon is now one of the largest companies in the world in terms of sales, and close to the top in terms of market capitalization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是 <strong>亚马逊</strong>（AMZN 2.17%）的世界，我们只是生活在其中。至少，有时候感觉就是这样，因为这家科技巨头和电子商务先锋已经变得如此庞大。去年，亚马逊创造了 6380 亿美元的收入，现在在销售额方面是全球最大的公司之一，在市值方面也接近顶尖。</p>
</div><p>Has the company reached its peak, or is the growth party still set to continue? Let's dive into the numbers and figure out where Amazon stock may trade five years from now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这家公司是否已经达到了巅峰，还是增长的派对仍在继续？让我们深入数据，看看亚马逊的股票在五年后可能会交易到什么水平。</p>
</div><h2>Steady growth in e-commerce</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>电子商务的稳定增长</h2>
</div><p>Since its founding around 30 years ago, Amazon has become the dominant player within e-commerce in the United States. What has kept its platform steadily growing is that e-commerce's share of the total retail market has been consistently growing at the expense of in-person sales. This is what lifted Amazon's North American retail sales to $389 billion in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自成立约 30 年前以来，亚马逊已成为美国电子商务的主导者。推动其平台持续增长的原因在于，电子商务在整体零售市场中的份额一直在不断增长，而面对面销售则在减少。这使得亚马逊在 2024 年的北美零售销售额达到了 3890 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>And yet, if we look at the data, e-commerce as a percentage of total U.S. retail sales still remains below 20%. Excluding a brief steep jump during the heart of the COVID-19 pandemic and then a decline back toward its previous curve as social distancing measures receded, this figure has steadily risen for years, going from under 1% in 2000 to 16.5% today. In-person retail will never disappear entirely. However, I think it is likely that e-commerce as a percentage of retail sales will be higher five years from now than today, which will be a tailwind for Amazon's platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果我们查看数据，电子商务在美国零售销售总额中的比例仍然低于 20%。排除在 COVID-19 疫情高峰期间的短暂急剧上升，以及随着社交距离措施的减少而回落至之前曲线的情况，这一数字多年来稳步上升，从 2000 年的不到 1% 上升到今天的 16.5%。面对面零售不会完全消失。然而，我认为五年后电子商务在零售销售中的比例可能会高于今天，这将为亚马逊的平台提供助力。</p>
</div><p>Combine this with economic and consumer spending growth in North America and I think Amazon's retail division can grow revenue by at least 10% a year outside of recessionary periods. Even better, the company has now scaled some high-margin divisions that will provide even more profit potential at these larger and larger revenue figures. These include advertising across e-commerce listings and media, third-party seller services, and subscriptions, which combined now make up a larger percentage of Amazon's total revenue in the retail division.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结合北美经济和消费者支出的增长，我认为亚马逊的零售部门在非衰退期的收入年增长率至少可以达到 10%。更好的是，公司现在已经扩展了一些高利润的部门，这些部门在这些越来越大的收入数字中将提供更大的利润潜力。这些包括电子商务列表和媒体的广告、第三方卖家服务以及订阅服务，这些合计现在占亚马逊零售部门总收入的更大比例。</p>
</div><p>Add everything together, and I think it is clear that Amazon's e-commerce division is poised to grow its earnings power over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将所有因素结合在一起，我认为亚马逊的电子商务部门在未来五年内有望提升其盈利能力。</p>
</div><h2>A huge AI opportunity?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巨大的人工智能机会？</h2>
</div><p>Next, we need to consider the second pillar of Amazon's sprawling empire: cloud computing. Its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division pioneered the cloud model, allowing companies to easily outsource their data center, computing, and software needs. Today, AWS generates over $100 billion in annual revenue and is much more profitable than e-commerce, posting around $40 billion in operating income in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下来，我们需要考虑亚马逊庞大帝国的第二个支柱：云计算。其亚马逊网络服务（AWS）部门开创了云模型，使公司能够轻松外包其数据中心、计算和软件需求。如今，AWS 每年创造超过 1000 亿美元的收入，盈利能力远高于电子商务，2024 年运营收入约为 400 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>Now, the division's growth is being amped up by the rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. New AI services like Anthropic are working with AWS because it can supply the processing power their new large language models require. More computational needs means more spending on AWS, which is accelerating its revenue growth. Exiting 2024, the unit's revenue was growing 19% year over year and hit $28.8 billion in Q4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，该部门的增长受到人工智能（AI）工具使用增加的推动。像 Anthropic 这样的新 AI 服务正在与 AWS 合作，因为它可以提供其新大型语言模型所需的处理能力。更多的计算需求意味着对 AWS 的支出增加，这加速了其收入增长。在 2024 年结束时，该部门的收入同比增长了 19%，在第四季度达到了 288 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>We are only in the first few years of this explosion in AI spending. There will likely be down periods for this market, but it is estimated that hundreds of billions of dollars -- and perhaps trillions over the long term -- will be spent on AI infrastructure. This presents a huge opportunity for the leader in cloud computing services, and should lead to fantastic earnings growth for AWS over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们仅处于人工智能支出爆炸的头几年。这个市场可能会经历低迷期，但预计数千亿美元——甚至长期可能达到数万亿美元——将用于人工智能基础设施。这为云计算服务的领导者提供了巨大的机会，并应在未来五年内为 AWS 带来可观的盈利增长。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2cde11ff95275f7ec42a4753bee7e48a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2cde11ff95275f7ec42a4753bee7e48a.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Operating Margin (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 运营利润率（TTM）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Where will Amazon stock be in five years?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亚马逊的股票在五年后会在哪里？</h2>
</div><p>As of this writing, Amazon has a market cap of around $2 trillion, making it the fourth-largest company in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，亚马逊的市值约为 2 万亿美元，使其成为全球第四大公司。</p>
</div><p>Based on the analysis in the above sections, I expect Amazon's revenue to grow by at least 10% a year for the next five years. Let's say its average annualized growth rate is 12% per year. From its 2024 revenue of $638 billion, it would reach $1.1 trillion in annual revenue in five years. That is a monstrous figure, but an achievable one considering how large its end markets are.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据上述部分的分析，我预计亚马逊的收入在未来五年将每年增长至少 10%。假设其年均增长率为 12%。从 2024 年的 6380 亿美元收入来看，五年后将达到 1.1 万亿美元的年收入。这是一个巨大的数字，但考虑到其最终市场的规模，这是一个可实现的目标。</p>
</div><p>Last year, Amazon's operating margin was 10.75%. With higher-margin services such as AWS growing faster than overall sales, Amazon should be able to widen its profit margins over the next five years. I believe a 15% profit margin is reasonably achievable, but wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，亚马逊的运营利润率为 10.75%。随着 AWS 等高利润服务的增长速度快于整体销售，亚马逊应该能够在未来五年内扩大其利润率。我相信 15% 的利润率是合理可达的，但如果最终更高也不会让我感到惊讶。</p>
</div><p>A 15% profit margin on $1.1 trillion in revenue would give it $169 billion in annual earnings. If it stayed at its current stock price, that would bring Amazon's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) down below 12. I think a high-quality business such as Amazon deserves to trade at a much higher multiple. Assuming the market agrees, Amazon stock will likely be trading at a higher level in five years. Not 10 times higher given the company's maturity, but the stock is still a buying opportunity for investors right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1.1 万亿美元的收入上实现 15% 的利润率将使其年盈利达到 1690 亿美元。如果保持当前的股价，这将使亚马逊的市盈率（P/E）降到 12 以下。我认为像亚马逊这样高质量的企业应该以更高的倍数交易。假设市场同意这一点，亚马逊的股票在五年后可能会交易在更高的水平上。虽然不会是 10 倍的增长，因为公司的成熟度，但现在这只股票仍然是投资者的买入机会。</p>
</div>

Where Will Amazon Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 亚马逊 2024 年收入达 6380 亿美元，继续在电商领域稳步增长。  
- AWS 部门年收入超过 1000 亿美元，受 AI 需求推动，预计未来五年将实现显著增长。  
- 预计亚马逊未来五年年均增长率为 12%，利润率可达 15%。  

五年后亚马逊的股票会处于什么位置？