<p>大约三十年前，互联网开始走向主流，并在这个过程中使普通投资者能够民主化地获取信息和进行在线交易。投资者不再需要等待上市公司邮寄年度报告，而是可以通过点击按钮访问收入报表、资产负债表、投资者演示文稿等大量信息。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，零售投资者在华尔街的总交易量中所占比例随着时间的推移而不断增加。尽管机构/高频交易仍然占据华尔街每日交易的绝大部分，但零售投资者对股票的看法以及他们买卖的股票正变得越来越重要。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTMyNTUvc21hcnRwaG9uZS1yZXRhaWwtaW52ZXN0aW5nLXJvYmluaG9vZC1idXktc2VsbC1yZXRpcmUtc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyeXB0by1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTMyNTUvc21hcnRwaG9uZS1yZXRhaWwtaW52ZXN0aW5nLXJvYmluaG9vZC1idXktc2VsbC1yZXRpcmUtc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyeXB0by1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在线经纪公司 <strong>Robinhood</strong> 是一个历史上专注于普通投资者的交易平台。Robinhood 特别有趣的是，它不断更新平台上持有量最多的 100 种证券（股票和交易所交易基金（ETF））。可以将其视为普通投资者最关注的股票和 ETF 的权力排名。</p>
<p>在三月中旬，人工智能（AI）巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.31%）短暂地成为 Robinhood 上持有量最多的股票。但在最近几周，它将这一宝座让给了一家市场领先的企业，一位知名的资金管理者认为该公司在未来四年内可以实现 900% 的回报。</p>
<h2>AI 巨头 Nvidia 不再是 Robinhood 零售投资者的最大持股</h2>
<p>尽管其登顶的时间很短，但 Nvidia 最近成为零售投资者社区中持有量最多的股票并不令人意外。大多数普通投资者都被围绕 AI 崛起的狂热所吸引。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和后续的 Blackwell GPU 架构迅速成为热门。Nvidia 的芯片作为 AI 加速数据中心的 “大脑”，能够实现瞬时决策，以及训练大型语言模型。企业愿意花费巨额资金为其数据中心配备 Nvidia 的硬件，这在 Nvidia 股票的飞速上涨中得到了体现。</p>
<p>此外，没有其他 AI-GPU 生产商能够接近 Hopper 或下一代 Blackwell GPU 的计算速度。只要 AI-GPU 的稀缺性持续存在，Nvidia 就不应该在维持其定价能力方面遇到任何问题。</p>
<p>但 Nvidia 股票回落至 Robinhood“最受欢迎” 排行榜第三位也有其合理原因。</p>
<p>例如，过去三十多年来，每一种颠覆性技术或创新在扩展初期都经历过泡沫。专业和零售投资者总是高估新技术获得实用性和广泛采用的速度，这导致最终未能满足的高期望。目前没有任何迹象表明人工智能股票会避免这种命运。如果 AI 泡沫破裂，Nvidia 股票可能会受到重创。</p>
<p>另一个可能让一些零售投资者关注的 Nvidia 的重大逆风是其竞争的快速增长。除了竞争对手加大生产外，Nvidia 的主要客户大多数也在内部开发 AI 芯片以用于其数据中心。内部开发的芯片没有积压的担忧，并且显著低于 Nvidia 的硬件成本。这将导致 Nvidia 的毛利率下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTMyNTUvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTMyNTUvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Tesla。</p>
<h2>Robinhood 上零售投资者的最大持股是 Cathie Wood 的最爱</h2>
<p>取代 Nvidia 登顶的股票是什么？毫无疑问是电动车（EV）巨头 <strong>Tesla</strong>（TSLA 5.47%）。根据 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 的说法，Tesla 股票到 2029 年将达到每股 2600 美元，这将代表该公司股票在第一季度结束时的约 903% 的上涨空间。</p>
<p>零售投资者对 Tesla 的兴奋可以用三个因素来概括。</p>
<p>首先，它在电动车领域仍享有一些先发优势。它是北美领先的电动车制造商，并成为半个多世纪以来第一家从零开始建立大规模生产的汽车公司。凭借连续五年符合公认会计原则（GAAP）的盈利，Tesla 证明了其运营模式的有效性。</p>
<p>其次，Tesla 正在超越电动车生产，以提高其利润率并减少其周期性联系。该公司的能源生产和储存部门的订单大幅增加。在大多数经济环境中，对能源解决方案的需求应该是稳定的。更重要的是，该部门的利润率比销售电动车的利润率更高。</p>
<p>最后，零售投资者对首席执行官 Elon Musk 情有独钟。Tesla 的首席执行官承诺将在 2025 年 6 月之前推出机器人出租车，并认为公司的 Optimus 机器人代表了一个令人惊叹的可寻址市场。Cathie Wood 的 2600 美元目标价，意味着到 2029 年 Tesla 的估值将达到 8.37 万亿美元，主要基于与机器人出租车相关的销售和息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）的惊人增长。</p>
<p>然而，Tesla 的问题，以及 Cathie Wood 对该股票的异乎寻常的目标价，是 Musk 有着过度承诺和未能兑现的长期记录。</p>
<p>例如，马斯克承诺到 2020 年将有一百万辆机器人出租车上路。然而，我们现在在 2025 年讨论的是 2025 年 6 月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出的付费机器人出租车项目。尽管马斯克在过去十多年里每年都预测完全自动驾驶的第五级将会在 “明年” 到来，但他的公司仍未超越第二级自动驾驶。如果将对未验证的高期望（包括机器人出租车和 Optimus）的预期从特斯拉的估值中剔除，股票将失去大部分价值。</p>
<p>除了马斯克因与唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作而分心，并在过去十年中未能交付众多创新外，特斯拉的先发电动车优势也受到挑战。日益增长的竞争迫使北美领先的电动车制造商多次降价，以避免库存大幅增加。尽管尽了最大努力，库存水平仍然上升，公司车辆的利润率却大幅下滑。</p>
<p>尽管特斯拉已重新夺回零售投资者在 Robinhood 上的最爱股票地位，但存在一种可行的情景，即这一头号持股在未来的表现将大幅低于预期。</p>

英伟达财报，一站看懂！

英伟达

<p>英伟达已失去在 Robinhood 上最受持有的股票地位，取而代之的是特斯拉。根据 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 的预测，特斯拉预计将实现 900% 的增长。英伟达的股票曾因人工智能的进展而受到支持，但现在面临来自竞争和潜在市场调整的挑战。特斯拉的吸引力源于其在电动车市场的领先地位、持续的盈利能力以及向能源解决方案的扩展，同时零售投资者对首席执行官埃隆·马斯克雄心勃勃的计划给予了强有力的支持</p>

<p>Roughly three decades ago, the internet began going mainstream and, in the process, democratized access to information and online trading for everyday investors. Rather than wait for public companies to mail their annual reports, investors had access to income statements, balance sheets, investor presentations, and so much more, at the click of a button.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大约三十年前，互联网开始走向主流，并在这个过程中使普通投资者能够民主化地获取信息和进行在线交易。投资者不再需要等待上市公司邮寄年度报告，而是可以通过点击按钮访问收入报表、资产负债表、投资者演示文稿等大量信息。</p>
</div><p>Not surprisingly, retail investors have grown into a larger percentage of total trading volume on Wall Street over time. While institutional/high-frequency trading still accounts for the bulk of shares trading hands on Wall Street on a daily basis, what retail investors think about equities, and which stocks they buy or sell, is of growing importance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，零售投资者在华尔街的总交易量中所占比例随着时间的推移而不断增加。尽管机构/高频交易仍然占据华尔街每日交易的绝大部分，但零售投资者对股票的看法以及他们买卖的股票正变得越来越重要。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTMyNTUvc21hcnRwaG9uZS1yZXRhaWwtaW52ZXN0aW5nLXJvYmluaG9vZC1idXktc2VsbC1yZXRpcmUtc3RvY2stbWFya2V0LWNyeXB0by1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813255%2Fsmartphone-retail-investing-robinhood-buy-sell-retire-stock-market-crypto-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Online brokerage <strong>Robinhood</strong> is one trading platform that's historically catered to everyday investors. What's particularly interesting about Robinhood is that it continually updates the 100 most-held securities (stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs)) on its platform. Think of it as a power ranking of which stocks and ETFs matter most to everyday investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在线经纪公司 <strong>Robinhood</strong> 是一个历史上专注于普通投资者的交易平台。Robinhood 特别有趣的是，它不断更新平台上持有量最多的 100 种证券（股票和交易所交易基金（ETF））。可以将其视为普通投资者最关注的股票和 ETF 的权力排名。</p>
</div><p>In mid-March, artificial intelligence (AI) behemoth <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.31%) very briefly claimed the top spot as the most-held stock on Robinhood. But in recent weeks, it's ceded this pedestal to a market-leading business that one prominent money manager believes can return 900% over the next four years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在三月中旬，人工智能（AI）巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 0.31%）短暂地成为 Robinhood 上持有量最多的股票。但在最近几周，它将这一宝座让给了一家市场领先的企业，一位知名的资金管理者认为该公司在未来四年内可以实现 900% 的回报。</p>
</div><h2>AI giant Nvidia is no longer the top holding of Robinhood's retail investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AI 巨头 Nvidia 不再是 Robinhood 零售投资者的最大持股</h2>
</div><p>Though its ascent to the top spot was brief, it's no surprise that Nvidia recently found itself as the most widely held stock among the retail investing community. Most everyday investors have been caught up in the euphoria surrounding the rise of AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管其登顶的时间很短，但 Nvidia 最近成为零售投资者社区中持有量最多的股票并不令人意外。大多数普通投资者都被围绕 AI 崛起的狂热所吸引。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's Hopper (H100) graphics processing units (GPUs) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture became overnight sensations. Nvidia's chips act as the brains of AI-accelerated data centers, allowing for split-second decision-making, as well as the training of large language models. Businesses have been willing to spend a pretty penny to outfit their data centers with Nvidia's hardware, which has been reflected in the meteoric rise of Nvidia's stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和后续的 Blackwell GPU 架构迅速成为热门。Nvidia 的芯片作为 AI 加速数据中心的 “大脑”，能够实现瞬时决策，以及训练大型语言模型。企业愿意花费巨额资金为其数据中心配备 Nvidia 的硬件，这在 Nvidia 股票的飞速上涨中得到了体现。</p>
</div><p>It also doesn't hurt that no other AI-GPU producers have come particularly close to matching the computing speed of the Hopper or next-generation Blackwell GPU. As long as AI-GPU scarcity persists, Nvidia shouldn't have any trouble maintaining its superior pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，没有其他 AI-GPU 生产商能够接近 Hopper 或下一代 Blackwell GPU 的计算速度。只要 AI-GPU 的稀缺性持续存在，Nvidia 就不应该在维持其定价能力方面遇到任何问题。</p>
</div><p>But there are also logical reasons Nvidia stock fell back to the No. 3 spot on Robinhood's &#34;most popular&#34; leaderboard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Nvidia 股票回落至 Robinhood“最受欢迎” 排行榜第三位也有其合理原因。</p>
</div><p>For instance, every game-changing technology or innovation for more than three decades has worked its way through a bubble early in its expansion. Professional and retail investors consistently overestimate how quickly a new technology will gain utility and widespread adoption, which leads to lofty expectations eventually not being met. Thus far, nothing suggests artificial intelligence stocks will avoid this fate. If the AI bubble were to burst, Nvidia stock would likely be hit hard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，过去三十多年来，每一种颠覆性技术或创新在扩展初期都经历过泡沫。专业和零售投资者总是高估新技术获得实用性和广泛采用的速度，这导致最终未能满足的高期望。目前没有任何迹象表明人工智能股票会避免这种命运。如果 AI 泡沫破裂，Nvidia 股票可能会受到重创。</p>
</div><p>The other significant headwind for Nvidia that some retail investors may have homed in on is its rapidly growing competition. On top of competitors ramping up production, most of Nvidia's top customers by net sales are internally developing AI chips to use in their data centers. There's no concern about backlogs with internally developed chips, and they're notably cheaper than Nvidia's hardware. This is a recipe for Nvidia's gross margin to decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能让一些零售投资者关注的 Nvidia 的重大逆风是其竞争的快速增长。除了竞争对手加大生产外，Nvidia 的主要客户大多数也在内部开发 AI 芯片以用于其数据中心。内部开发的芯片没有积压的担忧，并且显著低于 Nvidia 的硬件成本。这将导致 Nvidia 的毛利率下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTMyNTUvdHNsYS1tb2RlbC0zLWRyaXZpbmctZG93bi13aW50ZXJ5LXJvYWQuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813255%2Ftsla-model-3-driving-down-wintery-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Tesla。</p>
</div><h2>Retail investors' top holding on Robinhood is a Cathie Wood favorite</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Robinhood 上零售投资者的最大持股是 Cathie Wood 的最爱</h2>
</div><p>Which stock replaced Nvidia atop the pedestal? None other than electric-vehicle (EV) giant <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 5.47%). According to Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, Tesla stock is headed to $2,600 per share by 2029, which would represent about 903% upside from where the company's shares ended the first quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>取代 Nvidia 登顶的股票是什么？毫无疑问是电动车（EV）巨头 <strong>Tesla</strong>（TSLA 5.47%）。根据 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood 的说法，Tesla 股票到 2029 年将达到每股 2600 美元，这将代表该公司股票在第一季度结束时的约 903% 的上涨空间。</p>
</div><p>Retail investors' excitement for Tesla can be summed up by three factors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>零售投资者对 Tesla 的兴奋可以用三个因素来概括。</p>
</div><p>To begin with, it's still enjoying some of its first-mover advantages in the EV space. It's North America's leading EV maker and became the first auto company in more than a half-century to build itself from the ground up to mass production. With five consecutive years of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) profit in its sails, Tesla has demonstrated that its operating model works.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，它在电动车领域仍享有一些先发优势。它是北美领先的电动车制造商，并成为半个多世纪以来第一家从零开始建立大规模生产的汽车公司。凭借连续五年符合公认会计原则（GAAP）的盈利，Tesla 证明了其运营模式的有效性。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, Tesla is moving beyond just EV production to improve its margins and lessen its cyclical ties. Orders have picked up in a big way for the company's energy generation and storage segment. Demand for energy solutions should be consistent in most economic climates. More importantly, the margins for this segment are juicier than those associated with selling EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，Tesla 正在超越电动车生产，以提高其利润率并减少其周期性联系。该公司的能源生产和储存部门的订单大幅增加。在大多数经济环境中，对能源解决方案的需求应该是稳定的。更重要的是，该部门的利润率比销售电动车的利润率更高。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, retail investors are enamored with CEO Elon Musk. Tesla's chief has promised to bring robotaxis to market by June 2025 and believes the company's Optimus robot represents a jaw-dropping addressable market. Cathie Wood's $2,600 price target, which implies an $8.37 trillion valuation for Tesla come 2029, is prominently based on stratospheric sales and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) growth tied to robotaxis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后，零售投资者对首席执行官 Elon Musk 情有独钟。Tesla 的首席执行官承诺将在 2025 年 6 月之前推出机器人出租车，并认为公司的 Optimus 机器人代表了一个令人惊叹的可寻址市场。Cathie Wood 的 2600 美元目标价，意味着到 2029 年 Tesla 的估值将达到 8.37 万亿美元，主要基于与机器人出租车相关的销售和息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）的惊人增长。</p>
</div><p>However, the issue with Tesla, and Cathie Wood's otherworldly price target on the stock, is that Musk has a long track record of overpromising and underdelivering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Tesla 的问题，以及 Cathie Wood 对该股票的异乎寻常的目标价，是 Musk 有着过度承诺和未能兑现的长期记录。</p>
</div><p>For example, Musk promised that one million robotaxis would be on public roads by 2020. Yet here we are in 2025 discussing the unveiling of a paid robotaxi program in Austin, Texas, come June 2025. Despite more than a decade of annual prognostications by Musk that Level 5 full self-driving was coming &#34;next year,&#34; his company hasn't moved beyond Level 2 autonomy. If the lofty expectations for unproven claims, which includes robotaxis and Optimus, are backed out of Tesla's valuation, the stock would lose most of its value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，马斯克承诺到 2020 年将有一百万辆机器人出租车上路。然而，我们现在在 2025 年讨论的是 2025 年 6 月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出的付费机器人出租车项目。尽管马斯克在过去十多年里每年都预测完全自动驾驶的第五级将会在 “明年” 到来，但他的公司仍未超越第二级自动驾驶。如果将对未验证的高期望（包括机器人出租车和 Optimus）的预期从特斯拉的估值中剔除，股票将失去大部分价值。</p>
</div><p>Beyond Musk being distracted by his work with President Donald Trump and failing to deliver numerous innovations over the last decade, Tesla's first-mover EV advantages are coming under fire. Growing competition has coerced North America's leading EV maker to slash its prices on more than a half-dozen occasions to avoid a sizable uptick in inventory. Despite its best efforts, inventory levels did climb, and the company's vehicle margin plummeted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了马斯克因与唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作而分心，并在过去十年中未能交付众多创新外，特斯拉的先发电动车优势也受到挑战。日益增长的竞争迫使北美领先的电动车制造商多次降价，以避免库存大幅增加。尽管尽了最大努力，库存水平仍然上升，公司车辆的利润率却大幅下滑。</p>
</div><p>Although Tesla has reclaimed its spot as retail investors' favorite stock on Robinhood, a viable scenario exists where this No. 1 holding <em>vastly</em> underperforms moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特斯拉已重新夺回零售投资者在 Robinhood 上的最爱股票地位，但存在一种可行的情景，即这一头号持股在未来的表现将大幅低于预期。</p>
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Nvidia Has Ceded Its Spot as the No. 1 Holding on Robinhood to a Company Expected to Skyrocket 900%, According to a Prominent Money Manager

- 零售投资者在华尔街的交易量逐渐增加，Nvidia 曾是 Robinhood 平台的热门股票。  
- 目前，特斯拉取代 Nvidia 成为最受欢迎的股票，预计未来有 903% 的上涨空间。  
- 然而，特斯拉面临竞争加剧和高估值风险，可能导致未来表现不佳。  

根据一位著名的资金经理的说法，英伟达已经让出了它在 Robinhood 上的第一大持仓位置，给了一家预计将飙升 900% 的公司