<p>通常，沃伦·巴菲特购买某只股票的消息会使其股价上涨，但在啤酒制造商 <strong>星座品牌</strong>(STZ -1.20%) 的情况下，该股票今年仍然挣扎。投资者了解到，巴菲特的公司 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在二月份将星座的股票纳入了其投资组合。虽然这确实给星座带来了一些提振，但还不足以扭转其命运。</p>
<p>以下是投资者不应期待星座股票前景改善的原因，即使巴菲特增加了他的持股。</p>
<h2>关税对星座的业务构成巨大风险</h2>
<p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对来自多个国家的进口商品征收关税，包括墨西哥，而星座品牌在墨西哥酿造其受欢迎的 Modelo 和 Corona 啤酒。对该国所有进口商品征收 25% 的固定关税可能对星座的运营造成毁灭性影响，尤其是在近年来人们已经面临高通胀的情况下。</p>
<p>由于公司的主要市场是美国，而其在墨西哥生产啤酒，星座品牌可能特别容易受到两国之间贸易战的影响。投资者需要关注的是，由于成本增加，公司利润率可能会恶化，以及对其销售的影响。</p>
<p>截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日的九个月期间，公司净销售额并不令人印象深刻，总计 80 亿美元，同比增长仅为 3%。其 42 亿美元的毛利润占净销售额的 52% 以上，这足以使公司在遭受总计 23 亿美元的商誉减值费用的情况下仍能实现盈利。</p>
<p>然而，适应和应对关税将是对业务的重大考验，而巴菲特的投资并不会改变这一点。</p>
<h2>股票看起来便宜，但这并不意味着它会很快恢复</h2>
<p>在过去的 12 个月中，星座品牌的股票下跌超过 30%。这远远逊色于整体市场的表现，在此期间 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了约 7%。由于增长乏力，星座一直是表现不佳的股票，而关税对其业务构成的威胁使得股价进一步下跌。</p>
<p>如果你查看这只股票的估值，它看起来并不太贵。星座的前瞻市盈率（基于分析师的估计）低于 13。相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的平均股票前瞻市盈率为 21。</p>
<p>然而，这些都是估计值，可能会根据业务前景的变化而改变。关于关税可能有多高、贸易战可能持续多久以及它们将如何影响星座的收入和利润，仍然存在很大的不确定性。随着分析师对星座今年的业绩有更清晰的了解，这些估计可能会发生变化。如果预期星座的盈利将显著下降，股票可能会开始看起来更贵，这很可能就是情况。</p>
<p>公司将在 4 月 9 日公布最新的财报，这将为投资者提供更多关于其指导和未来业务前景的见解。</p>
<h2>星座品牌的股票今天值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>即使在今年之前，星座品牌看起来也不是一只值得拥有的好股票。它一直在努力产生任何有意义的增长，而现在，其增长前景看起来更糟。即使关税消失，业务恢复，前方仍可能是一条漫长而艰难的道路。</p>
<p>巴菲特过去投资了许多消费类股票，但仅此并没有使它们成为好的买入选择。例如，<strong>卡夫亨氏</strong> 一直是伯克希尔投资组合中的主力，投资者可能会对其在过去五年中仅产生 23% 的平庸收益感到失望。</p>
<p>星座不是我会购买的股票。今天有许多更好的成长股票可供选择，它们在长期内的前景要好得多。</p>

星座品牌-A

<p>尽管沃伦·巴菲特投资了星座品牌，但该公司的股票仍然面临困境。该公司面临来自关税的风险，特别是对来自墨西哥的进口，墨西哥是其酿造热门啤酒的地方。截止到 2024 年 11 月 30 日的九个月期间，其净销售额总计为 80 亿美元，同比增长仅为 3%。过去一年，该股票下跌超过 30%，表现不及标准普尔 500 指数。分析师对关税对盈利的影响仍然不确定，4 月 9 日即将发布的财报可能会提供更多见解。总体而言，星座品牌目前并不被视为一个强劲的投资选择</p>

<p>Normally, news of Warren Buffett buying a stock sends it rallying, but in the case of beer maker <strong>Constellation Brands</strong>(STZ -1.20%), the stock is still struggling this year. Investors learned that Buffett's company, <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>, added Constellation's stock to its portfolio in February. While that did give Constellation a bit of a boost, it hasn't been enough to turn its fortunes around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，沃伦·巴菲特购买某只股票的消息会使其股价上涨，但在啤酒制造商 <strong>星座品牌</strong>(STZ -1.20%) 的情况下，该股票今年仍然挣扎。投资者了解到，巴菲特的公司 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong> 在二月份将星座的股票纳入了其投资组合。虽然这确实给星座带来了一些提振，但还不足以扭转其命运。</p>
</div><p>Here's why investors shouldn't expect the outlook to get better for Constellation's stock, even if Buffett adds to his stockpile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是投资者不应期待星座股票前景改善的原因，即使巴菲特增加了他的持股。</p>
</div><h2>Tariffs pose a huge risk to Constellation's business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关税对星座的业务构成巨大风险</h2>
</div><p>U.S. President Donald Trump has been imposing tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including Mexico, which is where Constellation Brands brews its popular Modelo and Corona beers. A flat 25% tariff on all imports from the country could prove to be devastating for Constellation's operations, especially with people already battling high inflation in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对来自多个国家的进口商品征收关税，包括墨西哥，而星座品牌在墨西哥酿造其受欢迎的 Modelo 和 Corona 啤酒。对该国所有进口商品征收 25% 的固定关税可能对星座的运营造成毁灭性影响，尤其是在近年来人们已经面临高通胀的情况下。</p>
</div><p>With the company's primary market being the U.S. and it produces beers in Mexico, Constellation Brands may be particularly vulnerable to a trade war involving the two countries. What investors will want to watch for is how the company's margins may deteriorate due to an increase in cost, and the effect on its sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于公司的主要市场是美国，而其在墨西哥生产啤酒，星座品牌可能特别容易受到两国之间贸易战的影响。投资者需要关注的是，由于成本增加，公司利润率可能会恶化，以及对其销售的影响。</p>
</div><p>For the nine-month period ending Nov. 30, 2024, the company's net sales weren't all that impressive, totaling $8 billion and rising by just 3% year over year. Its gross profit of $4.2 billion was more than 52% of net sales, which was strong enough to enable the business to post a profit despite incurring goodwill impairment charges totaling $2.3 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2024 年 11 月 30 日的九个月期间，公司净销售额并不令人印象深刻，总计 80 亿美元，同比增长仅为 3%。其 42 亿美元的毛利润占净销售额的 52% 以上，这足以使公司在遭受总计 23 亿美元的商誉减值费用的情况下仍能实现盈利。</p>
</div><p>However, adapting to and handling tariffs will be a significant test for the business, and an investment from Buffett doesn't change that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，适应和应对关税将是对业务的重大考验，而巴菲特的投资并不会改变这一点。</p>
</div><h2>The stock looks cheap, but that doesn't mean it will recover anytime soon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票看起来便宜，但这并不意味着它会很快恢复</h2>
</div><p>Over the past 12 months, Constellation Brands stock has fallen more than 30%. That's far worse than how the overall market has performed, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> rising by around 7% during that timeframe. Constellation has been an underperforming stock due to its poor growth, and the threat that tariffs pose to its business have caused the stock to go even lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的 12 个月中，星座品牌的股票下跌超过 30%。这远远逊色于整体市场的表现，在此期间 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 上涨了约 7%。由于增长乏力，星座一直是表现不佳的股票，而关税对其业务构成的威胁使得股价进一步下跌。</p>
</div><p>If you look at the stock's valuation, it doesn't look too expensive. Constellation is trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple (which is based on analyst estimates) of less than 13. In comparison, the average stock in the S&amp;P 500 trades at a forward earnings multiple of 21.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你查看这只股票的估值，它看起来并不太贵。星座的前瞻市盈率（基于分析师的估计）低于 13。相比之下，标准普尔 500 指数的平均股票前瞻市盈率为 21。</p>
</div><p>These are, however, estimates, and they can change depending on the outlook for the business. There's still a great deal of uncertainty as to how steep tariffs may be, how long a trade war may go on, and how they will affect Constellation's top and bottom lines. Over time, as analysts get a better idea of what Constellation's numbers may look like this year, those estimates could change. The stock could start to look much more expensive if the expectation is that Constellation's earnings will decline significantly, which may very well be the case.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这些都是估计值，可能会根据业务前景的变化而改变。关于关税可能有多高、贸易战可能持续多久以及它们将如何影响星座的收入和利润，仍然存在很大的不确定性。随着分析师对星座今年的业绩有更清晰的了解，这些估计可能会发生变化。如果预期星座的盈利将显著下降，股票可能会开始看起来更贵，这很可能就是情况。</p>
</div><p>The company reports its latest earnings numbers on April 9, which will give investors more insight into its guidance and what may be ahead for the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司将在 4 月 9 日公布最新的财报，这将为投资者提供更多关于其指导和未来业务前景的见解。</p>
</div><h2>Is Constellation Brands stock worth buying today?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>星座品牌的股票今天值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>Constellation Brands didn't look like a great stock to own even prior to this year. It was struggling to generate any meaningful growth, and now, its growth prospects look even worse. Even if tariffs go away and the business recovers, it could still be a long, challenging road ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在今年之前，星座品牌看起来也不是一只值得拥有的好股票。它一直在努力产生任何有意义的增长，而现在，其增长前景看起来更糟。即使关税消失，业务恢复，前方仍可能是一条漫长而艰难的道路。</p>
</div><p>Buffett has invested in many consumer stocks in the past, and that alone hasn't made them good buys. <strong>Kraft Heinz</strong>, for instance, has been a staple in Berkshire's portfolio, and investors would likely be disappointed with the lackluster 23% gains it has produced over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特过去投资了许多消费类股票，但仅此并没有使它们成为好的买入选择。例如，<strong>卡夫亨氏</strong> 一直是伯克希尔投资组合中的主力，投资者可能会对其在过去五年中仅产生 23% 的平庸收益感到失望。</p>
</div><p>Constellation isn't a stock I'd buy. There are many better growth stocks to choose from today, which have far better prospects over the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>星座不是我会购买的股票。今天有许多更好的成长股票可供选择，它们在长期内的前景要好得多。</p>
</div>

Why an Investment From Warren Buffett Might Not Be Enough to Rally Constellation Brands' Stock

为什么沃伦·巴菲特的投资可能不足以拉动星座品牌-A 的股票