<p>华尔街分析师对 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -10.39%) 的看法越来越悲观。在这家汽车制造商公布第一季度交付量后，Wedbush 分析师 Daniel Ives 称该报告为 “灾难”，并表示首席执行官埃隆·马斯克需要 “振作起来”。然而，Ives 仍然给予该股票 “跑赢大盘” 的评级，目标价为 550 美元。</p>
<p>与此同时，<strong>富国银行</strong> 分析师 Colin Langan 对该股票的批评则更加严厉，给予 “减持” 评级，目标价为 130 美元。在交付量公告之前，Langan 预测该数字会令人失望，同时还预测其收益即将下降。在电动车制造商第一季度交付量下降 13% 后，考虑到其定价已降低，这在目前看来似乎是一个相当确定的赌注。</p>
<p>Langan 对特斯拉的机器人出租车雄心和当前技术也并不看好。由于对其机器人出租车业务的期望很高，这位分析师认为公司的投资者将面临失望。他表示，若到 6 月仍未在路上拥有一支付费的机器人出租车车队，应被视为负面消息。</p>
<h2>稀有的 “卖出” 评级</h2>
<p>前 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 首席美国股票策略师 Adam Parker 最近称华尔街卖方评级和目标价 “基本上毫无用处”。作为曾在买方工作的分析师，我可以告诉你，这种情绪在那些以挑选股票为生的专业人士中相当普遍。这并不是说卖方分析师不提供良好的信息、财务模型和研究，许多人确实如此。然而，他们在挑选股票方面并不总是表现出色，这最终并不是他们的工作。</p>
<p>然而，卖方分析师的 “卖出” 或 “减持” 评级实际上相当罕见，仅占所有分析师评级的约 6%。将目标价设定为股票当前交易价格的一半也是一个大胆的判断。因此，Langan 在他的工作领域中显得格外突出，这一点相当显著。</p>
<p>我也在很大程度上同意他的看法。看好特斯拉的投资者，如 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood，主要将特斯拉的机器人出租车业务视为他们愿意为该股票支付如此高溢价的原因。毕竟，作为一家主要的汽车公司——而且汽车销量正在下降——特斯拉的股票估值过高。根据 2025 年的分析师预估，该股票的前瞻市盈率超过 100，而其盈利的汽车同行的倍数都在 8 以下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/39ce139f9fb845f89c73db74d24ff92f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/39ce139f9fb845f89c73db74d24ff92f.png"/></p>
<p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
<p>然而，特斯拉在机器人出租车和自动驾驶竞赛中落后于人。<strong>字母表</strong> 的 Waymo 自 2020 年 10 月在亚利桑那州凤凰城推出以来，一直为公众提供自动驾驶服务，并且现在开始扩展到新市场。与此同时，特斯拉尚未兑现其众多自动驾驶承诺，关于其产品的安全性仍存在许多担忧。</p>
<p>与 Waymo 等公司不同，特斯拉放弃了激光雷达技术，因其成本较高，而选择仅使用摄像头视觉的方法。然而，该技术在某些条件下显示出问题。去年，_Inside EVs_报道称，在使用特斯拉的完全自动驾驶 (FSD) 技术时，车辆在恶劣天气中会失控，并试图转弯而没有实际的转弯。与此同时，AMCI Testing 指出，在超过 1000 英里的测试中，驾驶员不得不在特斯拉的 FSD 技术下干预超过 75 次。就其本身而言，美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 已将特斯拉的 FSD 和自动驾驶模式与数百起事故联系在一起。</p>
<p>特斯拉在中国的 FSD 努力也进展不佳。_Electrek_最近报道，使用特斯拉免费 FSD 试用的中国驾驶员因各种违规行为而被罚款，包括在自行车和公交车道行驶以及非法转弯。结果，该公司似乎在上个月底暂停了免费试用。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM0MjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODY0MzA1ODU0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM0MjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODY0MzA1ODU0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的股票值得卖出吗？</h2>
<p>特斯拉当前的估值只有在公司能够成为机器人出租车业务的主要参与者时才能得到合理解释。然而，关于其技术仍然存在许多问题，而竞争对手如 Waymo 已经有了很大的先发优势。</p>
<p>与此同时，其核心汽车业务正面临巨大挑战。中国作为全球最大的电动车市场，竞争正在影响该市场的销售，而对马斯克涉足政治和有争议的 DOGE（政府效率部门）的批评似乎正在拖累美国和欧洲的销售。在这一点上，似乎已经对相当大比例的人群造成了品牌损害。</p>
<p>鉴于其高估值、挣扎中的汽车业务和自动驾驶挑战，我认为该股票可能会有很大的进一步下行潜力。</p>

特斯拉

<p>华尔街分析师对特斯拉（TSLA）的看法越来越悲观，Wedbush 的 Daniel Ives 称最近的交付报告为 “灾难”，但仍维持 “跑赢大盘” 的评级和 550 美元的目标价。相比之下，富国银行的 Colin Langan 则给予 “减持” 评级，目标价为 130 美元，预测盈利下降，并对特斯拉的机器人出租车计划表示怀疑。分析师指出，卖出评级很少见，而 Langan 的目标价暗示着显著的下跌。特斯拉的高估值受到质疑，尤其是在其在电动车市场挣扎并面临来自 Waymo 等竞争对手的压力时</p>

<p>Wall Street analysts are becoming increasingly bearish on <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -10.39%). Following the car maker's first-quarter deliveries announcement, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives called the report a &#34;disaster&#34; and said CEO Elon Musk needs to &#34;get his act together.&#34; However, Ives still has an &#34;outperform&#34; rating and a $550 target on the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街分析师对 <strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -10.39%) 的看法越来越悲观。在这家汽车制造商公布第一季度交付量后，Wedbush 分析师 Daniel Ives 称该报告为 “灾难”，并表示首席执行官埃隆·马斯克需要 “振作起来”。然而，Ives 仍然给予该股票 “跑赢大盘” 的评级，目标价为 550 美元。</p>
</div><p><strong>Wells Fargo</strong> analyst Colin Langan, meanwhile, has been far more critical of the stock, with an &#34;underweight&#34; rating and $130 price target on it. Before the deliveries announcement, Langan predicted that the number would disappoint, while also forecasting that its earnings are about to decline. After the electric vehicle (EV) maker's 13% drop in Q1 deliveries, and given that its pricing has been lower, that looks like a pretty sure bet at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，<strong>富国银行</strong> 分析师 Colin Langan 对该股票的批评则更加严厉，给予 “减持” 评级，目标价为 130 美元。在交付量公告之前，Langan 预测该数字会令人失望，同时还预测其收益即将下降。在电动车制造商第一季度交付量下降 13% 后，考虑到其定价已降低，这在目前看来似乎是一个相当确定的赌注。</p>
</div><p>Langan also isn't sold on Tesla's robotaxi ambitions and its current technology. With expectations for its robotaxi business high, the analyst thinks the company's investors are set up for disappointment. He said anything short of having a paid fleet of robotaxis on the road by June should be viewed as a negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Langan 对特斯拉的机器人出租车雄心和当前技术也并不看好。由于对其机器人出租车业务的期望很高，这位分析师认为公司的投资者将面临失望。他表示，若到 6 月仍未在路上拥有一支付费的机器人出租车车队，应被视为负面消息。</p>
</div><h2>A rare &#34;sell&#34; rating</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>稀有的 “卖出” 评级</h2>
</div><p>Former <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> chief U.S. equity strategist Adam Parker recently called Wall Street sell-side ratings and price targets &#34;mostly useless.&#34; Having previously worked as a buy-side analyst, I can tell you that sentiment is pretty prevalent among the professionals who actually pick stocks for a living. That is not to say sell-side analysts don't provide good information, financial models, and research, as many do. However, they just aren't always good at picking stocks, which ultimately is not their job.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 首席美国股票策略师 Adam Parker 最近称华尔街卖方评级和目标价 “基本上毫无用处”。作为曾在买方工作的分析师，我可以告诉你，这种情绪在那些以挑选股票为生的专业人士中相当普遍。这并不是说卖方分析师不提供良好的信息、财务模型和研究，许多人确实如此。然而，他们在挑选股票方面并不总是表现出色，这最终并不是他们的工作。</p>
</div><p>However, &#34;sell&#34; or &#34;underweight&#34; ratings from sell-side analysts are actually quite rare, accounting for only about 6% of all analyst ratings. Having a price target of half the price a stock currently trades at is also a bold call. As such, Langan is going out on a limb compared to most in his line of work, which is quite notable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，卖方分析师的 “卖出” 或 “减持” 评级实际上相当罕见，仅占所有分析师评级的约 6%。将目标价设定为股票当前交易价格的一半也是一个大胆的判断。因此，Langan 在他的工作领域中显得格外突出，这一点相当显著。</p>
</div><p>I also largely agree with him. Bullish Tesla investors, such as Ark Invest's Cathie Wood, largely point to Tesla's robotaxi business as the reason they are willing to pay such a premium for the stock. After all, as largely an automobile company -- one with declining auto sales at that -- Tesla's stock is outrageously valued. The stock carries a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of over 100 based on 2025 analyst estimates, while its profitable auto peers all have multiples under 8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我也在很大程度上同意他的看法。看好特斯拉的投资者，如 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood，主要将特斯拉的机器人出租车业务视为他们愿意为该股票支付如此高溢价的原因。毕竟，作为一家主要的汽车公司——而且汽车销量正在下降——特斯拉的股票估值过高。根据 2025 年的分析师预估，该股票的前瞻市盈率超过 100，而其盈利的汽车同行的倍数都在 8 以下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/39ce139f9fb845f89c73db74d24ff92f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/39ce139f9fb845f89c73db74d24ff92f.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：YCharts。</p>
</div><p>However, Tesla is behind in the robotaxi and autonomous driving race. <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Waymo has been offering autonomous rides to the public since October 2020 when it launched in Phoenix, Arizona, and is now starting to expand into new markets. Tesla, meanwhile, has yet to deliver on any of its many autonomous driving promises, and there are still numerous safety concerns about its offering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，特斯拉在机器人出租车和自动驾驶竞赛中落后于人。<strong>字母表</strong> 的 Waymo 自 2020 年 10 月在亚利桑那州凤凰城推出以来，一直为公众提供自动驾驶服务，并且现在开始扩展到新市场。与此同时，特斯拉尚未兑现其众多自动驾驶承诺，关于其产品的安全性仍存在许多担忧。</p>
</div><p>Unlike Waymo and others, Tesla has eschewed the use of lidar technology given its added cost, in favor of a camera-vision-only approach. However, the technology has been shown to have issues in certain conditions. Last year, <em>Inside EVs</em> reported that when using Tesla's full self-driving (FSD) technology, vehicles would go rogue in inclement weather and try to make turns that did not exist. Meanwhile, AMCI Testing noted that in over 1,000 miles of testing, drivers had to intervene over 75 times with Tesla's FSD technology. For its part, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has linked Tesla's FSD and autopilot modes to hundreds of crashes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 Waymo 等公司不同，特斯拉放弃了激光雷达技术，因其成本较高，而选择仅使用摄像头视觉的方法。然而，该技术在某些条件下显示出问题。去年，_Inside EVs_报道称，在使用特斯拉的完全自动驾驶 (FSD) 技术时，车辆在恶劣天气中会失控，并试图转弯而没有实际的转弯。与此同时，AMCI Testing 指出，在超过 1000 英里的测试中，驾驶员不得不在特斯拉的 FSD 技术下干预超过 75 次。就其本身而言，美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 已将特斯拉的 FSD 和自动驾驶模式与数百起事故联系在一起。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's efforts with FSD in China have also gone poorly. <em>Electrek</em> recently reported that drivers in China using Tesla's free FSD trial were racking up fines for various violations, including driving in bike and bus lanes and making illegal turns. It appears that, as a result, the company suspended the free trial late last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉在中国的 FSD 努力也进展不佳。_Electrek_最近报道，使用特斯拉免费 FSD 试用的中国驾驶员因各种违规行为而被罚款，包括在自行车和公交车道行驶以及非法转弯。结果，该公司似乎在上个月底暂停了免费试用。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM0MjkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtODY0MzA1ODU0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813429%2Fgettyimages-864305854.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Tesla's stock a sell?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的股票值得卖出吗？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla's current valuation can only be justified if the company can become a major player in the robotaxi business. However, there are still a lot of questions about its technology, while rivals such as Waymo already have a big head start.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉当前的估值只有在公司能够成为机器人出租车业务的主要参与者时才能得到合理解释。然而，关于其技术仍然存在许多问题，而竞争对手如 Waymo 已经有了很大的先发优势。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, its core automobile business is struggling mightily. Competition in China, the world's largest EV market, has been hurting sales in that market, while criticism over Musk's dive into politics and the controversial DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) appears to be dragging down sales in the U.S. and Europe. At this point, a lot of brand damage seems to have been done with a large percentage of the population.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，其核心汽车业务正面临巨大挑战。中国作为全球最大的电动车市场，竞争正在影响该市场的销售，而对马斯克涉足政治和有争议的 DOGE（政府效率部门）的批评似乎正在拖累美国和欧洲的销售。在这一点上，似乎已经对相当大比例的人群造成了品牌损害。</p>
</div><p>Given its high valuation, struggling auto business, and autonomous driving challenges, I think the stock could have a lot of potential further downside from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于其高估值、挣扎中的汽车业务和自动驾驶挑战，我认为该股票可能会有很大的进一步下行潜力。</p>
</div>

A Wall Street Analyst Says Tesla Stock Could Plunge 50%. Is It Time to Sell the Stock?

- 华尔街分析师对特斯拉的看法日益悲观，交付量不及预期。  
- Wells Fargo 分析师 Colin Langan 给予特斯拉 “减持” 评级，目标价为 $130。  
- 特斯拉在自动驾驶技术上落后于竞争对手，核心汽车业务面临压力。  

一位华尔街分析师表示，特斯拉的股票可能会下跌 50%。现在是卖出股票的时机吗？