<p>石油市场正处于变动之中，欧洲主要石油公司的股价与盈利动能脱钩。美国银行（BofA）强调的这一现象，为投资者提供了一个独特的机会，可以利用该银行所称的 “大型石油公司” 中的 “定价错误” 机会。随着布伦特原油价格年初至今下跌了 6%，欧洲主要石油公司的股价却上涨了约 10%，这表明投资者的情绪正在转向对韧性和长期稳定性的关注，而非短期盈利动能。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh-prod-oper-pub-opercenter.s3.amazonaws.com/discovery-image/compress-1a7d91c1dd538001.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh-prod-oper-pub-opercenter.s3.amazonaws.com/discovery-image/compress-1a7d91c1dd538001.png"/></p>
<p>市场动态</p>
<p>股价与盈利动能的脱钩是一个重要趋势，投资者需要关注。BofA 分析师指出，尽管布伦特原油年初至今下跌了 6%，但欧洲主要石油公司的股价却上涨了约 10%。这一差异表明，投资者正在超越短期盈利，更加关注这些公司的长期韧性和稳定性。BofA 认为，2025 年第一季度现金流的共识预期存在下行风险，指出自由现金流（FCF）生成疲弱，仍然 “需要处置资产以避免额外的净债务”。尽管如此，该银行重申了对资产负债表强劲且盈亏平衡油价低的公司的偏好。</p>
<p>公司聚焦</p>
<p>1. 壳牌</p>
<p>壳牌是 BofA 的首选，因其盈亏平衡点为 65 美元/桶，而行业平均水平超过 90 美元/桶。这种韧性使壳牌能够产生强劲的自由现金流收益，预计 2025 财年的平均收益约为 5%。壳牌强劲的资产负债表和低盈亏平衡油价使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择，尽管可能面临短期盈利波动。</p>
<p>2. 道达尔能源</p>
<p>道达尔能源与壳牌和挪威石油一起，为 2025 财年提供最高的自由现金流收益，平均约为 5%。BofA 认为，这代表了一种相对的定价错误，因为这三家公司在行业中也提供了最强的资产负债表。道达尔能源的强劲表现和进一步增长的潜力使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择。</p>
<p>3. 挪威石油</p>
<p>挪威石油年初至今获得了最大的共识升级，但 BofA 认为它在 2025 年第一季度和全年盈利方面仍显示出最大的进一步上行潜力，尤其是在其约 13 美元/百万英热单位的 TTF 天然气价格假设下。挪威石油的强劲表现和进一步增长的潜力使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择。</p>
<p>政策影响</p>
<p>大型石油公司股价与盈利动能的脱钩为投资者提供了关注欧洲主要石油公司如壳牌、挪威石油和道达尔能源长期韧性和财务健康的机会。这些公司提供强劲的资产负债表、低盈亏平衡油价和高自由现金流收益，使其成为有吸引力的投资选择，尽管可能面临短期盈利波动。</p>
<p>结论</p>
<p>总之，大型石油公司股价与盈利动能的脱钩为投资者提供了关注欧洲主要石油公司如壳牌、挪威石油和道达尔能源长期韧性和财务健康的机会。这些公司提供强劲的资产负债表、低盈亏平衡油价和高自由现金流收益，使其成为有吸引力的投资选择，尽管可能面临短期盈利波动。投资者应考虑这些公司，因为它们提供更高的自由现金流收益和更强的资产负债表，使其在市场波动中更具韧性。</p>

挪威石油

<p>石油市场正经历股价与盈利动能的脱钩，为壳牌、道达尔和挪威石油等欧洲大型石油公司提供了投资机会。尽管布伦特原油价格年初至今下跌了 6%，但这些公司的股价却上涨了约 10%，显示出向长期稳定的转变。美国银行指出，壳牌的低盈亏平衡价为每桶 65 美元，使其成为首选，而道达尔和挪威石油也展现出强劲的自由现金流收益和稳健的资产负债表。投资者被鼓励在潜在的短期波动中关注这些具有韧性的公司</p>

<p>The oil market is in a state of flux, with share prices of European oil majors decoupling from earnings momentum. This phenomenon, highlighted by bank of america (BofA), presents a unique opportunity for investors to capitalize on what the bank calls “mispriced” opportunities in Big Oil. As Brent crude prices have dipped 6% year-to-date, share prices for European oil majors have surged around 10%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards resilience and long-term stability over short-term earnings momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>石油市场正处于变动之中，欧洲主要石油公司的股价与盈利动能脱钩。美国银行（BofA）强调的这一现象，为投资者提供了一个独特的机会，可以利用该银行所称的 “大型石油公司” 中的 “定价错误” 机会。随着布伦特原油价格年初至今下跌了 6%，欧洲主要石油公司的股价却上涨了约 10%，这表明投资者的情绪正在转向对韧性和长期稳定性的关注，而非短期盈利动能。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://lh-prod-oper-pub-opercenter.s3.amazonaws.com/discovery-image/compress-1a7d91c1dd538001.png" alt="" original-src="https://lh-prod-oper-pub-opercenter.s3.amazonaws.com/discovery-image/compress-1a7d91c1dd538001.png"/></p>
<p>Market Dynamics</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场动态</p>
</div><p>The decoupling of share prices from earnings momentum is a significant trend that investors need to pay attention to. BofA analysts point out that while Brent crude is down 6% year-to-date, share prices for European oil majors are up around 10%. This discrepancy suggests that investors are looking beyond short-term earnings and focusing more on the long-term resilience and stability of these companies. BofA sees downside risk to consensus expectations on 1Q25 cash flows, pointing to weak free cash flow (FCF) generation that still “requires disposals to avoid additional net debt.” Despite this, the bank reiterates a preference for companies with strong balance sheets and low breakeven oil prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股价与盈利动能的脱钩是一个重要趋势，投资者需要关注。BofA 分析师指出，尽管布伦特原油年初至今下跌了 6%，但欧洲主要石油公司的股价却上涨了约 10%。这一差异表明，投资者正在超越短期盈利，更加关注这些公司的长期韧性和稳定性。BofA 认为，2025 年第一季度现金流的共识预期存在下行风险，指出自由现金流（FCF）生成疲弱，仍然 “需要处置资产以避免额外的净债务”。尽管如此，该银行重申了对资产负债表强劲且盈亏平衡油价低的公司的偏好。</p>
</div><p>Company Spotlights</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司聚焦</p>
</div><p>1. Shell</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>1. 壳牌</p>
</div><p>Shell is BofA's top pick due to its $65/bbl breakeven versus a sector average above $90/bbl. This resilience allows Shell to generate strong free cash flow yields, averaging around 5% for FY25. Shell's strong balance sheet and low breakeven oil prices make it an attractive investment option despite potential short-term earnings volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>壳牌是 BofA 的首选，因其盈亏平衡点为 65 美元/桶，而行业平均水平超过 90 美元/桶。这种韧性使壳牌能够产生强劲的自由现金流收益，预计 2025 财年的平均收益约为 5%。壳牌强劲的资产负债表和低盈亏平衡油价使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择，尽管可能面临短期盈利波动。</p>
</div><p>2. TotalEnergies</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2. 道达尔能源</p>
</div><p>TotalEnergies, along with Shell and Equinor, offers the highest free cash flow yields for FY25, averaging around 5%. BofA believes this represents a relative mispricing given these three also offer the strongest balance sheets in the sector. TotalEnergies' strong performance and potential for further growth make it an attractive investment option.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道达尔能源与壳牌和挪威石油一起，为 2025 财年提供最高的自由现金流收益，平均约为 5%。BofA 认为，这代表了一种相对的定价错误，因为这三家公司在行业中也提供了最强的资产负债表。道达尔能源的强劲表现和进一步增长的潜力使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择。</p>
</div><p>3. Equinor</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>3. 挪威石油</p>
</div><p>Equinor has seen the biggest consensus upgrades year-to-date, but BofA believes it still shows the greatest further upside potential to both 1Q25 and full-year earnings, especially under its ~$13/mbtu TTF gas price assumption. Equinor's strong performance and potential for further growth make it an attractive investment option.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威石油年初至今获得了最大的共识升级，但 BofA 认为它在 2025 年第一季度和全年盈利方面仍显示出最大的进一步上行潜力，尤其是在其约 13 美元/百万英热单位的 TTF 天然气价格假设下。挪威石油的强劲表现和进一步增长的潜力使其成为一个有吸引力的投资选择。</p>
</div><p>Policy Impacts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策影响</p>
</div><p>The decoupling of Big Oil share prices from earnings momentum presents an opportunity for investors to focus on the long-term resilience and financial health of European oil majors like Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies. These companies offer strong balance sheets, low breakeven oil prices, and high free cash flow yields, making them attractive investment options despite potential short-term earnings volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型石油公司股价与盈利动能的脱钩为投资者提供了关注欧洲主要石油公司如壳牌、挪威石油和道达尔能源长期韧性和财务健康的机会。这些公司提供强劲的资产负债表、低盈亏平衡油价和高自由现金流收益，使其成为有吸引力的投资选择，尽管可能面临短期盈利波动。</p>
</div><p>Conclusion</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>结论</p>
</div><p>In summary, the decoupling of Big Oil share prices from earnings momentum presents an opportunity for investors to focus on the long-term resilience and financial health of European oil majors like Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies. These companies offer strong balance sheets, low breakeven oil prices, and high free cash flow yields, making them attractive investment options despite potential short-term earnings volatility. Investors should consider these companies as they offer higher free cash flow yields and stronger balance sheets, making them more resilient to market fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，大型石油公司股价与盈利动能的脱钩为投资者提供了关注欧洲主要石油公司如壳牌、挪威石油和道达尔能源长期韧性和财务健康的机会。这些公司提供强劲的资产负债表、低盈亏平衡油价和高自由现金流收益，使其成为有吸引力的投资选择，尽管可能面临短期盈利波动。投资者应考虑这些公司，因为它们提供更高的自由现金流收益和更强的资产负债表，使其在市场波动中更具韧性。</p>
</div>

随着市场与原油脱钩，值得关注的三只大石油股票