<p><strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统的解放日正如其名，尽管可能并不是政府所设想的那样。由于上周大规模的关税，技术分析师对可能出现的急剧下滑发出了警报，这种情况让人想起大萧条。令人担忧的是，几乎没有公司能够逃脱波动的影响，连科技巨头 <strong>英伟达公司</strong> NVDA 也未能幸免。</p>
<p>尽管多头在周一发起了反击，但在过去五个交易日中，NVDA 股票大约下跌了 11%。自年初以来，股价下滑了 28%，反映出与后疫情复苏相关的戏剧性事件。2023 年及尤其是 2024 年，英伟达的估值因其图形处理器的需求而飙升，这些处理器支撑了人工智能革命。</p>
<p>不幸的是，对于乐观者来说，竞争压力、人工智能生态系统中的新对手以及不利的（至少目前是这样）政治框架为 NVDA 股票创造了逆风。因此，市场做市商正在为 NVDA 期权定价负面结果，这完全可以理解。如果分析师提到大萧条，可以肯定地说，市场情绪是低迷的。</p>
<p>然而，悲观情绪已经严重到某些期权价差的风险特征变得颠倒，可以这么说。这种背景为聪明的逆向投资者创造了一个诱人的机会。</p>
<h2>如何在 NVDA 股票中亏损而仍然获利</h2>
<p>对于典型的牛市看涨价差策略——尤其是基于像英伟达这样强大的商业企业——目标股票必须上涨超过盈亏平衡点才能盈利。这是直观的，因为交易者支付了净借记，希望实现特定的结果。</p>
<p>另一方面，看涨价差的卖方本质上是在押注这一结果不会实现。这些人从现金流入开始他们的头寸，因为他们收到了信用（看涨期权买方支付的借记）。因此，看涨价差的卖方并不一定希望证券贬值。相反，仅仅保持横盘走势通常就足以让卖方保留收到的全部溢价。</p>
<p>目前情况独特之处在于，波动性的恐惧如此强烈，以至于相对高回报的看涨价差并不要求 NVDA 股票上涨。相反，它只需不下跌太多，这实际上是一个极具吸引力的交易。</p>
<p>例如，考虑本周五到期的 92/93 看涨价差。这笔交易涉及购买 92 美元的看涨期权（在撰写时的要价为 690 美元），同时出售 93 美元的看涨期权（在出价为 620 美元）。短期看涨期权的收益部分抵消了长期看涨期权的借记，导致净现金支出为 70 美元。</p>
<p>如果 NVDA 股票在到期时保持在短行使价或以上，最大回报来自行使价之间的差额（乘以 100 股）减去现金支出，即 30 美元。这是近 43% 的回报——而且 NVDA 不必上涨！目前，市场价格高于短行使价，因此 NVDA 即使下跌也仍然有资格获得全部回报。</p>
<p>当然，市场不断波动，因此确切的参数可能会变化。但目前，由于关税动荡，某些看涨价差的风险特征是颠倒的。与传统的借记结构不同，上述看涨价差几乎像是一个信用价差——但对借记买方有利。</p>
<h2>风险颠倒背后的引人注目的数学</h2>
<p>根据自 2019 年 1 月以来的定价数据，任何给定周盈利的概率为 56.13%。这是通过将上涨周数除以数据集中总周数来计算的。因此，作为基线，交易者在购买上述本周到期的 92/93 看涨价差时享有一定的优势。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07140322/NVDA-stock-probabilities-04072025-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07140322/NVDA-stock-probabilities-04072025-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的图片</p>
<p>然而，问题不在于 NVDA 股票本周是否会上涨。而是 NVDA 不会跌破 93 美元，即上述看涨价差的短行使价的概率。数学上，交易者发现相对于撰写时约 95 美元的价格，存在 2% 的安全边际。因此，概率集中在 NVDA 本周至少不会亏损 2%。</p>
<p>在任何给定的一周，英伟达股票表现好于 2% 的亏损的机会接近 72%。</p>
<p>当然，这并不是一个纯粹的套利情况。仍然存在风险，并且没有保证这个看涨价差会盈利。如果出现其他前所未有的事件，那么 NVDA 股票可能会跌破安全边际所提供的幅度。</p>
<p>尽管如此，底线是，市场为投机者提供了强劲的回报和一些灵活空间。这种组合并不常见。</p>
<p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>

英伟达

<p>最近与特朗普 2.0 相关的关税为英伟达（NVDA）的看涨价差创造了独特的风险特征，导致风险结构出现倒挂。尽管 NVDA 股票在过去一周下跌了 11%，自年初以来下降了 28%，但交易者仍然可以通过牛市看涨价差获利，而不需要股票大幅上涨。例如，92/93 的牛市看涨价差如果 NVDA 在到期时保持在 93 美元以上，潜在收益可达 43%，本周避免 2% 损失的概率为 72%。这种情况为逆势投资者提供了一个引人注目的机会</p>

<p>President <strong>Donald Trump's</strong> Liberation Day is living up to its name, though perhaps not in the way the administration envisioned. Thanks to last week's sweeping wave of tariffs, technical analysts have sounded the alarm about the potential for a steep downturn reminiscent of the Great Depression. Adding to the anxieties is that precious few companies have been spared volatility, not even tech juggernaut <strong>NVIDIA Corp</strong> NVDA.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 总统的解放日正如其名，尽管可能并不是政府所设想的那样。由于上周大规模的关税，技术分析师对可能出现的急剧下滑发出了警报，这种情况让人想起大萧条。令人担忧的是，几乎没有公司能够逃脱波动的影响，连科技巨头 <strong>英伟达公司</strong> NVDA 也未能幸免。</p>
</div><p>While the bulls are mounting a comeback effort on Monday, over the past five sessions, NVDA stock lost roughly 11%. Since the start of the year, equity has slipped 28%, reflecting a dramatic turn of events tied to the post-pandemic recovery. Throughout 2023 and especially 2024, Nvidia saw its valuation skyrocket thanks to demand for its graphics processors, which have undergirded the artificial intelligence revolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管多头在周一发起了反击，但在过去五个交易日中，NVDA 股票大约下跌了 11%。自年初以来，股价下滑了 28%，反映出与后疫情复苏相关的戏剧性事件。2023 年及尤其是 2024 年，英伟达的估值因其图形处理器的需求而飙升，这些处理器支撑了人工智能革命。</p>
</div><p>Unfortunately for the optimists, a combination of competitive pressures, new rivals in the AI ecosystem and unfavorable (at least for now) political frameworks have created a headwind for NVDA stock. As such, market makers are pricing in negative outcomes for NVDA options, which makes perfect sense. If analysts are mentioning the Great Depression, it's safe to say that sentiment is poor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，对于乐观者来说，竞争压力、人工智能生态系统中的新对手以及不利的（至少目前是这样）政治框架为 NVDA 股票创造了逆风。因此，市场做市商正在为 NVDA 期权定价负面结果，这完全可以理解。如果分析师提到大萧条，可以肯定地说，市场情绪是低迷的。</p>
</div><p>However, the pessimism has gotten so rough that the risk profile in certain option spreads has become inverted, so to speak. This backdrop is creating an enticing proposition for clever contrarians.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，悲观情绪已经严重到某些期权价差的风险特征变得颠倒，可以这么说。这种背景为聪明的逆向投资者创造了一个诱人的机会。</p>
</div><h2>How To Lose And Still Win With NVDA Stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>如何在 NVDA 股票中亏损而仍然获利</h2>
</div><p>For the typical bull call spread strategy — especially one underlying a strong business enterprise like Nvidia — the target equity must rise above a breakeven threshold to be profitable. This makes intuitive sense because the trader is paying a net debit to hopefully realize a specific outcome.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于典型的牛市看涨价差策略——尤其是基于像英伟达这样强大的商业企业——目标股票必须上涨超过盈亏平衡点才能盈利。这是直观的，因为交易者支付了净借记，希望实现特定的结果。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, sellers of call spreads are essentially betting against this outcome materializing. These folks start their position from a cash influx because they receive a credit (the debit the call buyer is paying). As such, call spread sellers aren't necessarily hoping that the security falls in value. Rather, just moving sideways is often good enough for the seller to keep the entire premium received.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，看涨价差的卖方本质上是在押注这一结果不会实现。这些人从现金流入开始他们的头寸，因为他们收到了信用（看涨期权买方支付的借记）。因此，看涨价差的卖方并不一定希望证券贬值。相反，仅仅保持横盘走势通常就足以让卖方保留收到的全部溢价。</p>
</div><p>What makes the present circumstance unique is that the fear of volatility is so intense that relatively high-payout bull call spreads don't require NVDA stock to rise. Instead, it just can't fall too much, which is, frankly, a wildly compelling deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前情况独特之处在于，波动性的恐惧如此强烈，以至于相对高回报的看涨价差并不要求 NVDA 股票上涨。相反，它只需不下跌太多，这实际上是一个极具吸引力的交易。</p>
</div><p>Take, for example, the 92/93 bull call spread for the options chain expiring this coming Friday. This transaction involves buying the $92 call (at a time-of-writing ask of $690) and simultaneously selling the $93 call (at a bid of $620). The proceeds from the short call partially offset the debit paid for the long call, resulting in a net cash outlay of $70.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，考虑本周五到期的 92/93 看涨价差。这笔交易涉及购买 92 美元的看涨期权（在撰写时的要价为 690 美元），同时出售 93 美元的看涨期权（在出价为 620 美元）。短期看涨期权的收益部分抵消了长期看涨期权的借记，导致净现金支出为 70 美元。</p>
</div><p>Should NVDA stock stay at or above the short strike price at expiration, the maximum reward comes from the difference between the strike prices (multiplied by 100 shares) minus the cash outlay or $30. That's a payout of nearly 43% — and NVDA doesn't have to rise! Currently, the market price is above the short strike price, so NVDA can even decline and still qualify for the full reward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 NVDA 股票在到期时保持在短行使价或以上，最大回报来自行使价之间的差额（乘以 100 股）减去现金支出，即 30 美元。这是近 43% 的回报——而且 NVDA 不必上涨！目前，市场价格高于短行使价，因此 NVDA 即使下跌也仍然有资格获得全部回报。</p>
</div><p>Of course, the market fluctuates constantly, so exact parameters may change. But currently, because of the tariff turmoil, the risk profile in certain call spreads is inverted. Rather than a traditional debit structure, the aforementioned call spread acts almost like a credit spread—but to the benefit of the debit buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，市场不断波动，因此确切的参数可能会变化。但目前，由于关税动荡，某些看涨价差的风险特征是颠倒的。与传统的借记结构不同，上述看涨价差几乎像是一个信用价差——但对借记买方有利。</p>
</div><h2>The Compelling Math Behind the Risk Inversion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风险颠倒背后的引人注目的数学</h2>
</div><p>Based on pricing data since January 2019, the probability that any given week will be profitable is 56.13%. This is calculated by taking the number of up weeks divided by the total number of weeks in the dataset. As a baseline, then, the trader enjoys a house advantage when buying the aforementioned 92/93 bull spread expiring this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据自 2019 年 1 月以来的定价数据，任何给定周盈利的概率为 56.13%。这是通过将上涨周数除以数据集中总周数来计算的。因此，作为基线，交易者在购买上述本周到期的 92/93 看涨价差时享有一定的优势。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07140322/NVDA-stock-probabilities-04072025-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/07140322/NVDA-stock-probabilities-04072025-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的图片</p>
</div><p>However, the question isn't whether NVDA stock will rise this week or not. Rather, it's the odds that NVDA will not drop below $93, the short strike price of the aforementioned call spread. Mathematically, traders spotted a 2% safety margin relative to the time-of-writing price of around $95. Therefore, the odds are focused on whether NVDA will at least do better than lose 2% this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，问题不在于 NVDA 股票本周是否会上涨。而是 NVDA 不会跌破 93 美元，即上述看涨价差的短行使价的概率。数学上，交易者发现相对于撰写时约 95 美元的价格，存在 2% 的安全边际。因此，概率集中在 NVDA 本周至少不会亏损 2%。</p>
</div><p>On any given week, the chance that Nvidia stock will perform better than a 2% loss is nearly 72%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何给定的一周，英伟达股票表现好于 2% 的亏损的机会接近 72%。</p>
</div><p>Granted, this isn't a pure arbitrage situation. There's still risk involved and no guarantee that this call spread will be profitable. If another unprecedented event materializes, then NVDA stock may collapse beyond the magnitude provided by the safety margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，这并不是一个纯粹的套利情况。仍然存在风险，并且没有保证这个看涨价差会盈利。如果出现其他前所未有的事件，那么 NVDA 股票可能会跌破安全边际所提供的幅度。</p>
</div><p>Still, the bottom line is that the house is giving gamblers both a robust payout and some wiggle room. Such combinations don't come around too often.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，底线是，市场为投机者提供了强劲的回报和一些灵活空间。这种组合并不常见。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Trump 2.0 Trauma Sparks 'Risk Inverted' Nvidia Call Spreads

- 特朗普的解放日未如预期，因关税引发市场担忧。  
- NVIDIA 股价在过去五个交易日下跌约 11%，年初以来下滑 28%。  
- 当前市场对 NVDA 的看法悲观，但某些期权策略仍具吸引力。  

期权角：特朗普 2.0 创伤引发 ‘风险倒置’ 的 NVIDIA 看涨期权价差