<p>沃伦·巴菲特被誉为有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他的业绩也证明了这一点。有趣的是，他被称为逆向投资者；他不做大家都在做的事情。尽管有无数追随者和众多粉丝试图模仿他的成功，但他的投资方法仍被认为是逆势而为。</p>
<p>考虑过去两年发生的事情。这是一个强劲的牛市，这意味着投资者在买入，但 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -1.00%）（BRK.B -0.76%）作为巴菲特的控股公司，在此期间每个季度都是净卖出股票。在 2024 年第四季度，它连续九个季度净卖出股票，并以 3340 亿美元的现金结束了这一年，创下了历史最高纪录。巴菲特已经掌舵伯克希尔哈撒韦 60 年，这让这一切更具背景。</p>
<p>业余分析师们一直在剖析巴菲特的交易行为，以看看投资者能从中学到什么，以及这对市场意味着什么。具体来说，人们一直在想他是否认为市场崩盘即将来临。</p>
<p>好吧，时机已经来临。上周，在特朗普总统的 “解放日” 之后，市场暴跌。巴菲特终于开始买入股票了吗？</p>
<h2>恐惧与贪婪</h2>
<p>巴菲特多次明确表示，他对购买高估股票不感兴趣，并且对强劲的牛市持谨慎态度。</p>
<p>许多人都知道他在 1986 年写给董事会主席的信中关于恐惧与贪婪的著名信条：“我们只是试图在别人贪婪时保持恐惧，而在别人恐惧时保持贪婪。”</p>
<p>在同一封信中，他声称不知道任何市场会如何波动，但牛市如果与真实的股票价值 “脱钩”，必然会下跌。“在写这篇文章时，华尔街几乎没有恐惧可见……然而，不幸的是，股票无法无限期地超越企业。” 这时他才会考虑买入。</p>
<h2>便宜货与价值</h2>
<p>巴菲特的成功显而易见，他的投资方法也同样清晰。但投资者仍然发现很难进入巴菲特的思维模式。他以投资被低估的股票而闻名。他在 1986 年的信中继续说道：“当条件合适时，也就是当具有良好经济和良好管理的公司以远低于内在商业价值的价格出售时——股票有时会提供大满贯的机会。”</p>
<p>但他如何判断这一点并不总是显而易见。伯克希尔哈撒韦购买的一个明显被低估的股票例子是 <strong>克罗格</strong>，它在 2019 年被收购。克罗格是美国最大的高端超市连锁店，符合巴菲特对在美国经济中长期角色的公司的标准。但当时它的表现并不好，看看巴菲特买入时的价格有多便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png"/></p>
<p>KR 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>自那时以来，它进行了许多运营变革并复苏，克罗格的股票自伯克希尔哈撒韦购买股份以来上涨了约 170%。</p>
<p>然而，巴菲特和他的团队最近购买了 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的股票，与近期平均水平相比，这并不显得那么便宜。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png"/></p>
<p>POOL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>他们可能在对不同的情景进行对冲，考虑可能的不同结果。事实上，尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.23%）在 2025 年下跌了 13%，泳池公司的股票仅下跌了 7%。</p>
<h2>深陷机会？</h2>
<p>如果巴菲特发现了这种股权产品，即使在高牛市情绪下也能让公司的资金运作，那么他很可能会对现在可用的机会感到高兴。就在几周前，在伯克希尔哈撒韦的年度信中，他谈到了在股市中寻找便宜货：“通常，没有什么看起来令人信服；我们很少发现自己深陷机会之中。” 他称赞投资经理格雷格·阿贝尔，称他 “生动地” 展示了 “在这种时候采取行动的能力”。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM4NjkvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM4NjkvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
<p>现在可能正是这样的时机。许多优秀的股票的估值处于几十年来的低点，包括巴菲特的股票 <strong>亚马逊</strong>。</p>
<p>不过，我要指出的是，许多巴菲特的股票今天的表现超过了市场。它们是那些在各种情况下都能保持稳定的安全、成熟的股票。巴菲特今天可能不太可能再买入更多这些股票，因为它们并不一定便宜。但他可能会发现一些值得在今天价格下买入的新股票。</p>
<p>我们要等到最早的第一季度报告（包括三月份）才能知道伯克希尔哈撒韦是否打破了其净卖出股票的记录。然而，四月份股票进一步下跌，而这个月的交易活动要等到第二季度更新时才能报告。</p>
<p>我对伯克希尔哈撒韦目前的情况并没有任何了解，经济可能处于你所称的未知领域。但巴菲特对他的投资方式毫不掩饰，我不会感到惊讶，如果发现他和他的团队正在寻找今天市场中的便宜货。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

<p>沃伦·巴菲特以其逆向投资策略而闻名，已经在过去两年里出售股票，同时在伯克希尔哈撒韦积累了创纪录的 3340 亿美元现金。尽管市场强劲反弹，他对高估的股票依然保持谨慎。分析师们猜测，在最近的市场下跌后，他是否会重新开始买入。巴菲特的投资哲学强调购买被低估的股票，尽管他最近购买了如 Pool Corp 等股票，但他偏好的许多股票目前并不便宜。下一份报告将揭示伯克希尔是否已转变为股票的净买家</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has a reputation as one of the greatest investors ever, and he has the track record to back that up. What's interesting about that is that he's known as a contrarian investor; he doesn't do what everyone else does. Despite myriad followers and legions of fans who try to imitate his success, his method is still considered going against the grain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特被誉为有史以来最伟大的投资者之一，他的业绩也证明了这一点。有趣的是，他被称为逆向投资者；他不做大家都在做的事情。尽管有无数追随者和众多粉丝试图模仿他的成功，但他的投资方法仍被认为是逆势而为。</p>
</div><p>Consider what's been happening for the past two years. It's been a strong bull market, which means investors are buying, but <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -1.00%) (BRK.B -0.76%), Buffett's holding company, has been a net seller of stocks every quarter throughout. It hit nine straight quarters of net selling stocks in the 2024 fourth quarter, and it ended the year with $334 billion in cash, its largest stockpile ever. Buffett has been at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway for 60 years, which puts that into context.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑过去两年发生的事情。这是一个强劲的牛市，这意味着投资者在买入，但 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -1.00%）（BRK.B -0.76%）作为巴菲特的控股公司，在此期间每个季度都是净卖出股票。在 2024 年第四季度，它连续九个季度净卖出股票，并以 3340 亿美元的现金结束了这一年，创下了历史最高纪录。巴菲特已经掌舵伯克希尔哈撒韦 60 年，这让这一切更具背景。</p>
</div><p>Armchair analysts have been dissecting Buffett's trading behavior to see what investors can learn from it and what it means about the markets. Specifically, people have been wondering if he thinks there's a market crash on the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>业余分析师们一直在剖析巴菲特的交易行为，以看看投资者能从中学到什么，以及这对市场意味着什么。具体来说，人们一直在想他是否认为市场崩盘即将来临。</p>
</div><p>Well, the time has come. The markets tumbled last week after President Trump's &#34;Liberation Day.&#34; Is Buffett finally buying stocks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好吧，时机已经来临。上周，在特朗普总统的 “解放日” 之后，市场暴跌。巴菲特终于开始买入股票了吗？</p>
</div><h2>Fear and greed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>恐惧与贪婪</h2>
</div><p>Buffett has made it clear on many occasions that he isn't interested in buying overpriced stocks, and that he's wary of a strong bull market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特多次明确表示，他对购买高估股票不感兴趣，并且对强劲的牛市持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>Many people know his famous credo about fear and greed from the Chariman's letter Buffett penned in 1986 : &#34;We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>许多人都知道他在 1986 年写给董事会主席的信中关于恐惧与贪婪的著名信条：“我们只是试图在别人贪婪时保持恐惧，而在别人恐惧时保持贪婪。”</p>
</div><p>In that same letter, he claimed not to know how any market would move, but that a bull market that becomes &#34;uncoupled&#34; with true stock values would be bound to fall. &#34;As this is written, little fear is visible in Wall Street...unfortunately, however, stocks can't outperform businesses indefinitely.&#34; That's when he's interested in buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在同一封信中，他声称不知道任何市场会如何波动，但牛市如果与真实的股票价值 “脱钩”，必然会下跌。“在写这篇文章时，华尔街几乎没有恐惧可见……然而，不幸的是，股票无法无限期地超越企业。” 这时他才会考虑买入。</p>
</div><h2>Bargains and value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>便宜货与价值</h2>
</div><p>Buffett's success is clear, and so is his investing method. But investors still find it challenging to get into Buffett's mindset. He's known for investing in undervalued stocks. his 1986 letter continued, &#34;when conditions are right, that is, when companies with good economics and good management sell well below intrinsic business value -- stocks sometimes provide grand-slam home runs,&#34;.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特的成功显而易见，他的投资方法也同样清晰。但投资者仍然发现很难进入巴菲特的思维模式。他以投资被低估的股票而闻名。他在 1986 年的信中继续说道：“当条件合适时，也就是当具有良好经济和良好管理的公司以远低于内在商业价值的价格出售时——股票有时会提供大满贯的机会。”</p>
</div><p>But how he determines that isn't always obvious. One example of what was a clearly undervalued stock that Berkshire Hathaway bought is <strong>Kroger</strong>, which it bought in 2019. Kroger is the largest premium supermarket chain in the U.S., which meets Buffett's criteria for a company that has a long-term role in the U.S. economy. But it wasn't doing so well at the time, and look how cheap it got when Buffett bought it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但他如何判断这一点并不总是显而易见。伯克希尔哈撒韦购买的一个明显被低估的股票例子是 <strong>克罗格</strong>，它在 2019 年被收购。克罗格是美国最大的高端超市连锁店，符合巴菲特对在美国经济中长期角色的公司的标准。但当时它的表现并不好，看看巴菲特买入时的价格有多便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5c65780f141a815478eb3328a4017f35.png"/></p>
<p>KR PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KR 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>It has since made many operational changes and rebounded, and Kroger stock is up about 170% since Berkshire Hathaway bought shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那时以来，它进行了许多运营变革并复苏，克罗格的股票自伯克希尔哈撒韦购买股份以来上涨了约 170%。</p>
</div><p>However, Buffett and his team recently bought <strong>Pool Corp</strong> stock, which doesn't look so cheap as compared to recent averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，巴菲特和他的团队最近购买了 <strong>泳池公司</strong> 的股票，与近期平均水平相比，这并不显得那么便宜。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/10a729c3fc793157418fb12314f8d333.png"/></p>
<p>POOL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>POOL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>They may have been hedging their bets, considering how different scenarios could play out. Indeed, while the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.23%) is down 13% in 2025, Pool is down 7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们可能在对不同的情景进行对冲，考虑可能的不同结果。事实上，尽管 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong>（^GSPC -0.23%）在 2025 年下跌了 13%，泳池公司的股票仅下跌了 7%。</p>
</div><h2>Knee-deep in opportunities?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>深陷机会？</h2>
</div><p>If Buffett found that kind of equity product to put the company's money to work even under conditions of high bull sentiment, it's likely he's delighting in what's available right now. Just a few weeks ago, in the Berkshire Hathaway annual letter, he spoke about finding bargains in the stock market: &#34;Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities.&#34; He praised investing manager Greg Abel, who's in line to take over Berkshire Hathaway, as &#34;vividly&#34; showing &#34;his ability to act at such times.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果巴菲特发现了这种股权产品，即使在高牛市情绪下也能让公司的资金运作，那么他很可能会对现在可用的机会感到高兴。就在几周前，在伯克希尔哈撒韦的年度信中，他谈到了在股市中寻找便宜货：“通常，没有什么看起来令人信服；我们很少发现自己深陷机会之中。” 他称赞投资经理格雷格·阿贝尔，称他 “生动地” 展示了 “在这种时候采取行动的能力”。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM4NjkvYnVmZmV0dDItdG1mLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813869%2Fbuffett2-tmf.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: The Motley Fool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：The Motley Fool。</p>
</div><p>Now could very well be such a time. Many excellent stocks are at decades-low valuations, including Buffett stock <strong>Amazon</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在可能正是这样的时机。许多优秀的股票的估值处于几十年来的低点，包括巴菲特的股票 <strong>亚马逊</strong>。</p>
</div><p>I would note, though, that many Buffett stocks are beating the market today. They're the safe, established stocks that hold up under all sorts of circumstances. Buffett may not be likely to buy more of them today because they aren't necessarily cheap. But he might find new stocks that are worth buying at today's prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，我要指出的是，许多巴菲特的股票今天的表现超过了市场。它们是那些在各种情况下都能保持稳定的安全、成熟的股票。巴菲特今天可能不太可能再买入更多这些股票，因为它们并不一定便宜。但他可能会发现一些值得在今天价格下买入的新股票。</p>
</div><p>We won't know if Berkshire Hathaway broke its streak to become a net buyer of stocks until at earliest the first-quarter report, which includes the month of March. However, stocks have moved even lower in April, and trading activity for the month won't be reported until the second-quarter update.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们要等到最早的第一季度报告（包括三月份）才能知道伯克希尔哈撒韦是否打破了其净卖出股票的记录。然而，四月份股票进一步下跌，而这个月的交易活动要等到第二季度更新时才能报告。</p>
</div><p>I don't have any knowledge of what's happening at Berkshire Hathaway right now, and the economy could be in what you might call uncharted territory. But Buffett's made no secret of how he invests, and I wouldn't be surprised to find out that he and his team are finding bargains in today's market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我对伯克希尔哈撒韦目前的情况并没有任何了解，经济可能处于你所称的未知领域。但巴菲特对他的投资方式毫不掩饰，我不会感到惊讶，如果发现他和他的团队正在寻找今天市场中的便宜货。</p>
</div>

Buffett Has Been Stockpiling Cash and Selling Stocks for More Than 2 Years. Is He Finally Buying?

- 巴菲特在强劲牛市中持续净卖出股票，现金储备达 3340 亿美元。  
- 他坚持在市场贪婪时保持谨慎，寻找被低估的股票。  
- 当前市场低估的优质股票可能吸引他重新投资。  

巴菲特已经囤积现金并出售股票超过两年了。他现在终于开始买入了吗？