<p>在过去两年中，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 因一小部分大型人工智能（AI）股票而创下了历史新高。这些被称为 “七大奇迹” 的公司包括 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>特斯拉</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 7.15%），在过去几年中，这些股票大多表现良好。</p>
<p>然而，2025 年对这些 AI 领军企业的情绪发生了显著变化。截至目前，七大奇迹中的每只股票今年都出现了负回报。仅英伟达的股票今年就下跌了约 27%。在一月份，这家芯片制造商的市值达到了 3.7 万亿美元的历史最高点。如今，其估值已暴跌至 2.4 万亿美元。</p>
<p>在市值损失超过 1 万亿美元后，英伟达投资者还有希望吗？我认为答案是一个响亮的 “是”。让我们深入探讨导致英伟达股票暴跌的原因，并探索可能重新点燃这家半导体明星的有利因素。</p>
<h2>什么导致英伟达股票暴跌？</h2>
<p>今年迄今为止，有几个因素影响了英伟达股票的波动。</p>
<p>首先，在一月份末，一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司发布了一种类似于 ChatGPT 的 AI 模型，并声称其 AI 是基于旧版英伟达芯片组构建和训练的，导致该股票遭受重创。投资者似乎一夜之间陷入恐慌，担心 DeepSeek 的声明将如何影响对英伟达最新芯片架构的需求。</p>
<p>在过去两个月中，白宫持续采取新关税政策的措施在资本市场引发了更多的不安。投资者自然开始思考其他国家可能如何对关税做出反应，以及任何报复性政策将如何影响贸易、价格、运输和整体商业运营。</p>
<p>这些事件最终演变成了一场充满恐惧的大规模风暴。考虑到英伟达股票在过去两年中的涨幅，投资者开始获利了结并囤积现金，面对更广泛的宏观经济不确定性以及未来具体商业表现的未知。现在该怎么办？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1MjQzNjgyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1MjQzNjgyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>我为什么认为英伟达股票有望反弹？</h2>
<p>我知道这些信息可能会给英伟达描绘出一幅悲观的图景，但聪明的投资者知道，除了地缘政治紧张局势和来自海外的竞争 AI 平台之外，故事还有更多内容。</p>
<p>首先，英伟达的一些最大客户包括其七大奇迹的同伴。例如，云计算巨头 Alphabet、亚马逊和微软都在其数据中心使用英伟达的芯片。此外，Meta Platforms 和特斯拉的领导层也在多次财报电话会议中具体提到他们对英伟达图形处理单元（GPU）的依赖。</p>
<p>正如我们在几周前了解到的 2024 年第四季度和全年财报中，云计算巨头预计今年的资本支出（capex）将接近 2600 亿美元，而 Meta Platforms 可能还会在此基础上增加高达 650 亿美元的支出。</p>
<p>此外，投资者终于开始了解英伟达最新的 GPU 架构 Blackwell 的表现。在第四季度，Blackwell 创造了 110 亿美元的收入，超出了管理层的预期。此外，在几周前的英伟达年度 GTC 大会上，首席执行官黄仁勋透露了 Blackwell 的后续产品线，强调了英伟达对创新的承诺以及公司发展的速度。</p>
<p>在我看来，自 2022 年末 AI 革命开始以来，英伟达的业务可能处于最强的地位。这些趋势展示了对 AI 基础设施的强劲需求，这是英伟达应该受益的机会，考虑到 Blackwell 发布的成功结果以及公司计划在未来几年继续推出更先进技术的计划。</p>
<h2>现在是购买英伟达股票的好时机吗？</h2>
<p>目前，英伟达的前瞻市盈率（P/E）略高于 22，是过去一年中的最低水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59a9d76cb6ff251f3950b78c426b6148.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59a9d76cb6ff251f3950b78c426b6148.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>老实说，我不会感到惊讶，如果英伟达的股票在短期内继续下跌。尽管如此，我认为显然围绕英伟达的负面情绪更多与经济的广泛担忧有关，而不是公司的实际表现。</p>
<p>考虑到公司当前的轨迹以及来自其最大客户的持续加速需求，我认为英伟达的实际业务状况良好。当然，关税可能会对公司的成本结构造成影响，并在短期内对利润率产生名义上的影响，但英伟达的长期前景依然完好。</p>
<p>我认为现在是听从沃伦·巴菲特建议的时候，利用市场中的恐惧，稍微贪婪一些。英伟达的股票现在看起来非常便宜，我认为随着时间的推移，投资者将开始意识到公司的实际表现仍然令人印象深刻——尽管在更广泛的市场中存在一些麻烦。</p>
<p>我的预测是，到年底，围绕关税和潜在的海外 AI 竞争的喧嚣将会减退，英伟达的财务表现将会自我证明。因此，几个月后，我认为英伟达的股票将会经历一些新发现的兴奋，并以史诗般的方式反弹。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达的股票今年下跌了 27%，市值损失超过 1 万亿美元，主要原因是竞争和地缘政治紧张局势。然而，分析师认为该股票有望反弹，指出来自主要客户如 Alphabet、亚马逊和微软的强劲需求，以及成功的产品发布。尽管关税可能带来短期挑战，英伟达的长期前景依然积极，这使得现在可能是投资该股票的好时机</p>

<p>For much of the past two years, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> were fueled to record levels thanks to a small collective of megacap artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. Known as the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Tesla</strong>, and <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 7.15%) have largely been a good group of shares to own for the last couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两年中，<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 因一小部分大型人工智能（AI）股票而创下了历史新高。这些被称为 “七大奇迹” 的公司包括 <strong>微软</strong>、<strong>苹果</strong>、<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>谷歌母公司 Alphabet</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>特斯拉</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong>（NVDA 7.15%），在过去几年中，这些股票大多表现良好。</p>
</div><p>However, sentiment around these AI leaders has shifted significantly in 2025. As of this writing, each of the Magnificent Seven stocks has seen a negative return on the year. Nvidia's shares alone are down some 27% this year. Back in January, the chipmaker's market capitalization reached an all-time high of $3.7 trillion. Today, its valuation has cratered to $2.4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2025 年对这些 AI 领军企业的情绪发生了显著变化。截至目前，七大奇迹中的每只股票今年都出现了负回报。仅英伟达的股票今年就下跌了约 27%。在一月份，这家芯片制造商的市值达到了 3.7 万亿美元的历史最高点。如今，其估值已暴跌至 2.4 万亿美元。</p>
</div><p>After losing over $1 trillion in market cap, is there any hope left for Nvidia investors? I think the answer is a resounding &#34;yes.&#34; Let's dig into what caused Nvidia stock to spiral, and explore what tailwinds could reignite some life back into the semiconductor darling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在市值损失超过 1 万亿美元后，英伟达投资者还有希望吗？我认为答案是一个响亮的 “是”。让我们深入探讨导致英伟达股票暴跌的原因，并探索可能重新点燃这家半导体明星的有利因素。</p>
</div><h2>What caused Nvidia stock to drop like a rock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>什么导致英伟达股票暴跌？</h2>
</div><p>There are several factors that have influenced the turbulence in Nvidia stock so far this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年迄今为止，有几个因素影响了英伟达股票的波动。</p>
</div><p>For starters, the stock took a big hit in late January after a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek released an AI model similar to ChatGPT, but claimed that it built and trained its AI on older Nvidia chipsets. Seemingly overnight, investors went into a panic, wondering how demand for Nvidia's newest chip architectures would be impacted, given the DeepSeek claims.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，在一月份末，一家名为 DeepSeek 的中国初创公司发布了一种类似于 ChatGPT 的 AI 模型，并声称其 AI 是基于旧版英伟达芯片组构建和训练的，导致该股票遭受重创。投资者似乎一夜之间陷入恐慌，担心 DeepSeek 的声明将如何影响对英伟达最新芯片架构的需求。</p>
</div><p>Over the last two months, ongoing step by the White House to implement new tariff policies have caused more trepidation across the capital markets. Investors have naturally started wondering how other countries might react to tariffs, and how any retaliatory policies could affect trade, prices, shipping, and overall business operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去两个月中，白宫持续采取新关税政策的措施在资本市场引发了更多的不安。投资者自然开始思考其他国家可能如何对关税做出反应，以及任何报复性政策将如何影响贸易、价格、运输和整体商业运营。</p>
</div><p>These events have eventually morphed into one large, widespread tornado filled with fear. Given how much Nvidia stock has run up over the last two years, investors started taking gains and hoarding cash, given all the uncertainty over the broader macroeconomy and what specific business performances could look like going forward. Now what?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些事件最终演变成了一场充满恐惧的大规模风暴。考虑到英伟达股票在过去两年中的涨幅，投资者开始获利了结并囤积现金，面对更广泛的宏观经济不确定性以及未来具体商业表现的未知。现在该怎么办？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM2MjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM1MjQzNjgyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813622%2Fgettyimages-1352436825.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why do I think Nvidia stock is poised to rebound?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我为什么认为英伟达股票有望反弹？</h2>
</div><p>I know this information might paint a dismal picture for Nvidia, but smart investors know that there is much more to the story, besides some geopolitical tensions and competing AI platforms from overseas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我知道这些信息可能会给英伟达描绘出一幅悲观的图景，但聪明的投资者知道，除了地缘政治紧张局势和来自海外的竞争 AI 平台之外，故事还有更多内容。</p>
</div><p>First, some of Nvidia's largest customers include its Magnificent Seven cohorts. For example, cloud hyperscalers Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft all use Nvidia chips in their data centers. Moreover, leadership at Meta Platforms and Tesla have also specifically referenced their reliance on Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPU) on multiple occasions -- typically during earnings calls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，英伟达的一些最大客户包括其七大奇迹的同伴。例如，云计算巨头 Alphabet、亚马逊和微软都在其数据中心使用英伟达的芯片。此外，Meta Platforms 和特斯拉的领导层也在多次财报电话会议中具体提到他们对英伟达图形处理单元（GPU）的依赖。</p>
</div><p>As we learned during Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings a few weeks ago, cloud hyperscalers are forecasting nearly $260 billion of capital expenditure (capex) spend this year, with Meta Platforms adding potentially up to another $65 billion on top of that sum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我们在几周前了解到的 2024 年第四季度和全年财报中，云计算巨头预计今年的资本支出（capex）将接近 2600 亿美元，而 Meta Platforms 可能还会在此基础上增加高达 650 亿美元的支出。</p>
</div><p>On top of this, investors have finally gotten a taste of how Nvidia's newest GPU architecture, Blackwell, is performing. During the fourth quarter, Blackwell generated $11 billion in revenue -- outperforming management's expectations. Moreover, during Nvidia's annual GTC conference a few weeks ago, CEO Jensen Huang revealed successor product lineups to Blackwell, underscoring Nvidia's commitment to innovation and the speed at which the company is moving.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投资者终于开始了解英伟达最新的 GPU 架构 Blackwell 的表现。在第四季度，Blackwell 创造了 110 亿美元的收入，超出了管理层的预期。此外，在几周前的英伟达年度 GTC 大会上，首席执行官黄仁勋透露了 Blackwell 的后续产品线，强调了英伟达对创新的承诺以及公司发展的速度。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, Nvidia's business might actually be in the strongest position it's been since the AI revolution started in late 2022. These trends showcase how robust demand is for AI infrastructure, an opportunity Nvidia should likely benefit from, given the successful results of the Blackwell launch and the company's plans to continue releasing even more superior technology for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看来，自 2022 年末 AI 革命开始以来，英伟达的业务可能处于最强的地位。这些趋势展示了对 AI 基础设施的强劲需求，这是英伟达应该受益的机会，考虑到 Blackwell 发布的成功结果以及公司计划在未来几年继续推出更先进技术的计划。</p>
</div><h2>Is now a good time to buy Nvidia stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买英伟达股票的好时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>Right now, Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just over 22 is the lowest it's been in a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英伟达的前瞻市盈率（P/E）略高于 22，是过去一年中的最低水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59a9d76cb6ff251f3950b78c426b6148.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59a9d76cb6ff251f3950b78c426b6148.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 前瞻市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia shares continue to fall in the near term. With that said, I think it's clear that the negativity surrounding Nvidia has more to do with broader concerns around the economy and less about the company's actual performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>老实说，我不会感到惊讶，如果英伟达的股票在短期内继续下跌。尽管如此，我认为显然围绕英伟达的负面情绪更多与经济的广泛担忧有关，而不是公司的实际表现。</p>
</div><p>Given the company's current trajectory and continued accelerated demand from its largest customers, I think Nvidia's actual business is in good shape. Sure, tariffs could put a dent in the company's cost structure and take a nominal toll on margins in the short term, but Nvidia's long-term picture remains intact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到公司当前的轨迹以及来自其最大客户的持续加速需求，我认为英伟达的实际业务状况良好。当然，关税可能会对公司的成本结构造成影响，并在短期内对利润率产生名义上的影响，但英伟达的长期前景依然完好。</p>
</div><p>I think now is a time to heed the advice of Warren Buffett by taking advantage of the fear in the markets and be a little greedy. Shares of Nvidia look dirt cheap right now, and I think in time, investors will begin to realize that the company's actual performance is still impressive -- despite some headaches in the broader market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为现在是听从沃伦·巴菲特建议的时候，利用市场中的恐惧，稍微贪婪一些。英伟达的股票现在看起来非常便宜，我认为随着时间的推移，投资者将开始意识到公司的实际表现仍然令人印象深刻——尽管在更广泛的市场中存在一些麻烦。</p>
</div><p>My prediction is that by the end of the year, much of the hoopla around tariffs and potential AI competition from overseas will subside, and Nvidia's financial performance will speak for itself. Hence, several months from now, I think Nvidia stock will experience some newfound excitement and rebound in epic fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的预测是，到年底，围绕关税和潜在的海外 AI 竞争的喧嚣将会减退，英伟达的财务表现将会自我证明。因此，几个月后，我认为英伟达的股票将会经历一些新发现的兴奋，并以史诗般的方式反弹。</p>
</div>

Prediction: After Losing Over $1 Trillion in Market Cap This Year, Nvidia Stock Will Rebound in Epic Fashion. Here's Why.

- Nvidia 股票在 2025 年遭遇负回报，市值从 3.7 万亿降至 2.4 万亿。  
- 主要原因包括中国初创公司 DeepSeek 的竞争和美国新关税政策。  
- 尽管短期内面临挑战，Nvidia 的长期前景依然乐观，预计将迎来反弹。

预测：在今年市值蒸发超过 1 万亿美元后，英伟达的股票将以史诗般的方式反弹。以下是原因