<p>华尔街开始担心美国经济正朝着衰退方向发展，分析师们基于这些担忧对各个行业做出判断。</p>
<p>航空公司历来对经济下滑比较敏感，在关于未来的严峻警告后，该行业失去了高度。<strong>捷蓝航空</strong>(JBLU -11.23%) 的股价领跌，当天下跌 11%，而 <strong>前沿集团控股</strong>(ULCC -7.82%) 的股价下跌 8%，<strong>西南航空</strong>(LUV -4.78%) 的股价则下跌 5%。</p>
<h2>现在不是飞行的时机</h2>
<p>在经济困难时期，美国人更可能削减旅行支出，而不是食品杂货支出。这使得航空公司成为一个周期性行业，在经济强劲时表现良好，但在经济放缓时则表现不佳。</p>
<p><strong>高盛</strong> 的分析师现在预测衰退的概率为 45%，因此其航空分析师团队正在更新该行业的前景。该银行下调了整个行业的目标价格，并因其高债务负担将 <strong>美国航空集团</strong>(AAL -6.59%) 评级下调至卖出。</p>
<p>在表现最差的公司中，捷蓝航空和前沿被称为 “溢出” 航空公司，因为当航空公司客满时，旅客被迫寻找其他选择，而这些公司往往会受益。西南航空正在进行重组，早期阶段包括取消一些对乘客友好的功能，在经济放缓时可能会很难吸引业务。</p>
<h2>现在是购买航空股的时机吗？</h2>
<p>周期性股票的好处在于周期最终会好转。这些公司大多数应该有能力在经济下滑中生存，尽管如果情况真的很糟糕，关于包括美国航空和捷蓝航空在内的航空公司流动性的问题肯定会出现。</p>
<p>困难的部分在于知道何时会出现转机。由于对关税及其对经济影响的不确定性，市场目前波动较大。在经济方向及其对航空需求的影响有更多明确性之前，投资者最好等候上车。</p>

ULCC

美国航空

西南航空

捷蓝航空

<p>航空公司股票大幅下跌，因华尔街担心美国可能出现经济衰退，这将影响旅行支出。捷蓝航空下跌 11%，Frontier Group Holdings 下跌 8%，西南航空下跌 5%。高盛预测经济衰退概率为 45%，并因高负债将美国航空评级下调至卖出。分析师建议周期性股票可能会复苏，但对关税和经济方向的不确定性使得投资者在购买航空公司股票之前保持观望是明智的</p>

<p>Wall Street is beginning to worry that the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession, and analysts are making calls on individual sectors based on those fears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街开始担心美国经济正朝着衰退方向发展，分析师们基于这些担忧对各个行业做出判断。</p>
</div><p>Airlines historically have been vulnerable to downturns, and the sector lost altitude after a dire warning about what is to come. Shares of <strong>JetBlue Airways</strong>(JBLU -11.23%) led the way, down 11% on the day, while shares of <strong>Frontier Group Holdings</strong>(ULCC -7.82%) fell 8% and shares of <strong>Southwest Airlines</strong>(LUV -4.78%) lost 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>航空公司历来对经济下滑比较敏感，在关于未来的严峻警告后，该行业失去了高度。<strong>捷蓝航空</strong>(JBLU -11.23%) 的股价领跌，当天下跌 11%，而 <strong>前沿集团控股</strong>(ULCC -7.82%) 的股价下跌 8%，<strong>西南航空</strong>(LUV -4.78%) 的股价则下跌 5%。</p>
</div><h2>No time to fly</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在不是飞行的时机</h2>
</div><p>When times are tough, Americans are more likely to cut back on travel spending than they are groceries. That has always made airlines a cyclical business, performing well in a strong economy but faltering during a slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经济困难时期，美国人更可能削减旅行支出，而不是食品杂货支出。这使得航空公司成为一个周期性行业，在经济强劲时表现良好，但在经济放缓时则表现不佳。</p>
</div><p>Analysts at <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> are now forecasting a 45% probability of a recession, and its airline analyst team is updating its outlook for the sector as a result. The bank cut price targets across the sector, and downgraded <strong>American Airlines Group</strong>(AAL -6.59%) to a sell due to its high debt load.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>高盛</strong> 的分析师现在预测衰退的概率为 45%，因此其航空分析师团队正在更新该行业的前景。该银行下调了整个行业的目标价格，并因其高债务负担将 <strong>美国航空集团</strong>(AAL -6.59%) 评级下调至卖出。</p>
</div><p>Among the biggest underperformers, JetBlue and Frontier are known as &#34;spill&#34; carriers because they tend to benefit when airlines are packed and travelers are forced to look elsewhere other than the industry leaders. Southwest is in the early days of a restructuring that includes eliminating some passenger-friendly features and could find it hard to attract business in a slowdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在表现最差的公司中，捷蓝航空和前沿被称为 “溢出” 航空公司，因为当航空公司客满时，旅客被迫寻找其他选择，而这些公司往往会受益。西南航空正在进行重组，早期阶段包括取消一些对乘客友好的功能，在经济放缓时可能会很难吸引业务。</p>
</div><h2>Is now the time to buy airline stocks?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在是购买航空股的时机吗？</h2>
</div><p>The good thing about cyclical stocks is the cycle eventually turns for the better. Most of these companies should have the wherewithal to survive a downturn, though if things get really bad questions are sure to come up about the liquidity of airlines including American and JetBlue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周期性股票的好处在于周期最终会好转。这些公司大多数应该有能力在经济下滑中生存，尽管如果情况真的很糟糕，关于包括美国航空和捷蓝航空在内的航空公司流动性的问题肯定会出现。</p>
</div><p>The tough part is knowing when the turnaround will happen. The market is volatile right now because of uncertainty about tariffs and the impact they will have on the economy. Until there is more clarity about the direction of the economy, and with it the direction of airline demand, investors would be better off waiting to board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>困难的部分在于知道何时会出现转机。由于对关税及其对经济影响的不确定性，市场目前波动较大。在经济方向及其对航空需求的影响有更多明确性之前，投资者最好等候上车。</p>
</div>

为什么航空公司股票今天下跌