<p>大型科技股一直是人工智能（AI）革命中最大的受益者之一。尽管自 AI 成为一种重大趋势以来，科技行业的成长股至少经历了一定程度的波动，但对于大多数公司来说，这些收益都是短暂的，导致了长期的剧烈波动。</p>
<p>但对于大型科技公司来说，过去几年收益一直相当稳定。到目前为止，享受最大收益的公司是半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>，其市值已上升了_万亿_，使其成为全球最有价值的公司之一。</p>
<p>虽然拥有 Nvidia 股票帮助一些投资者实现了前所未有的收益和财富，但我认为&#34;七大奇迹&#34;中的另一位成员是更好的长期机会。让我们探讨 Nvidia 与 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN -2.61%）之间的动态，并评估为什么这家电子商务和云计算的明星公司在下一个十年可能更具价值。</p>
<h2>为什么 Amazon 的增长看起来即将加速</h2>
<p>在过去的二十年里，Amazon 的业务已经远远超出了其电子商务市场。如今，该公司在云计算基础设施、广告、流媒体和娱乐、物流、杂货配送、订阅服务等多个领域运营。通过多元化其生态系统，Amazon 获得了零售和企业消费者的丰厚组合。</p>
<p>在过去的几年里，Amazon 一直在悄悄地向多个与 AI 相关的项目投入数十亿美元，开始构建其业务的下一个阶段。该公司所做的一些优先事项包括向一家名为 Anthropic 的初创公司投资 80 亿美元，该公司已成为 Amazon 云计算平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的重要组成部分。</p>
<p>Amazon 还专注于建立 AI 数据中心、自有定制硅芯片组，并加大对其履行中心的机器人自动化流程的投入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 季度收入数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>如果你查看上面的收入和利润趋势，你可能会质疑 Amazon 为什么要进行这些投资。好吧，只需看看 Nvidia 的增长与 Amazon 的差距。显然，Nvidia 的收入和利润曲线的斜率远远陡峭于 Amazon。</p>
<p>话虽如此，我要提醒投资者不要低估 Amazon 的潜力。自从与 Anthropic 的合作开始以来，AWS 的收入和运营利润已经显著加速。此外，Nvidia 销售一些开发 AI 所需的最重要的硬件和软件。换句话说，Nvidia 之所以享受比同行更快的增长，是因为公司需要他们的产品。相比之下，Amazon 在过去两年里一直在构建尚未完全扩展的新产品和服务。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，我认为 Amazon 正处于一个新的指数增长的早期阶段。接下来，我将详细说明为什么 Nvidia 在未来几年可能面临显著放缓。</p>
<h2>为什么 Nvidia 的增长可能开始停滞</h2>
<p>推动 Nvidia 在过去几年业务增长的主要动力是对数据中心计算和网络设备的需求。投资 AI 基础设施的公司在很大程度上依赖于被称为图形处理单元（GPU）的芯片组，而这正是 Nvidia 专注设计的硬件。</p>
<p>一段时间以来，Nvidia 几乎没有直接竞争的奢侈。这为公司提供了巨大的议价筹码，形成了定价权——基本上以溢价出售其 GPU，因为全球各地的公司纷纷排队购买。</p>
<p>尽管 Nvidia 最新的 GPU 架构 Blackwell 的推出势头强劲，但我开始质疑公司的定价权还能持续多久。<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 终于推出了自己的竞争 GPU 系列 MI300 加速器。尽管 AMD 的数据中心 GPU 业务远不及 Nvidia，但其增长速度很快且保持盈利。此外，AMD 在价格方面能够与 Nvidia 竞争——这帮助该公司吸引了 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 等 MI300 架构的早期采用者。</p>
<p>除了直接竞争，其他超大规模公司如 Microsoft 和 Alphabet 也在与 Amazon 一起开发他们的定制硅芯片。随着更多芯片组进入市场，Nvidia 面临着企业开始将 GPU 视为商品化硬件的风险。</p>
<p>因此，Nvidia 可能被迫放松其定价结构，以保持在 GPU 领域的竞争力——这一动态可能会在销售和利润率上开始显现出一些显著的放缓。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQxMjg2MDA2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQxMjg2MDA2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>看一下估值差异</h2>
<p>下图展示了过去三年 Amazon 和 Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）比率。有趣的是，<strong>纳斯达克</strong> 的持续抛售使得两家公司的市盈率倍数基本收敛到相同的值（大约在 30 左右）。换句话说，尽管 Nvidia 的市值为 2.3 万亿美元，远高于 Amazon 的 1.8 万亿美元，但两家公司的市盈率估值相似。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>虽然我确实认为每只股票都有反弹的潜力，但我认为投资者可能会开始对 Nvidia 施加更多的审视。该公司在过去两年里一直火热，势头肯定会在某个时刻停滞。</p>
<p>随着越来越多的竞争者开始进入英伟达的核心市场，该公司将不得不在人工智能领域的其他方面进行投资，以继续赢得成长投资者的热情。相比之下，亚马逊已经进行了多项投资——其中许多尚未实现规模化和完全见效。</p>
<p>基于这些原因，我认为亚马逊目前比英伟达更值得买入和持有，因为我认为该公司有望在未来几年加速销售和利润的增长——因此在未来将获得相对于同行的溢价倍数。</p>

亚马逊

<p>这篇文章讨论了亚马逊在 2030 年前超越英伟达市值的潜力，强调了亚马逊在人工智能和云计算方面的多元化投资。尽管英伟达因其 GPU 而实现了显著增长，但来自 AMD 和其他科技巨头的竞争可能会对其定价和利润率施加压力。相比之下，亚马逊的战略投资，包括与 Anthropic 的 80 亿美元合作，使其具备了加速增长的条件，暗示其在长期内可能成为更有价值的公司</p>

<p>Megacap technology stocks have been some of the biggest and longest-standing beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution. While growth stocks in the tech sector have experienced at least some form of action since AI emerged as a megatrend, these gains have been fleeting for most companies -- leading to prolonged periods of outsize volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大型科技股一直是人工智能（AI）革命中最大的受益者之一。尽管自 AI 成为一种重大趋势以来，科技行业的成长股至少经历了一定程度的波动，但对于大多数公司来说，这些收益都是短暂的，导致了长期的剧烈波动。</p>
</div><p>But for big tech, the gains have been quite steady over the last couple of years. The company that has enjoyed the most upside so far is semiconductor powerhouse <strong>Nvidia</strong>, which has seen its market value rise by <em>trillions</em>-- making it one of the most valuable companies in the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对于大型科技公司来说，过去几年收益一直相当稳定。到目前为止，享受最大收益的公司是半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>，其市值已上升了_万亿_，使其成为全球最有价值的公司之一。</p>
</div><p>While owning Nvidia stock has helped some investors realize unprecedented gains and wealth, I see a different member of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; as the better long-term opportunity. Let's explore the dynamics between Nvidia and <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.61%) and assess why the e-commerce and cloud computing darling could be the more valuable company by next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然拥有 Nvidia 股票帮助一些投资者实现了前所未有的收益和财富，但我认为&#34;七大奇迹&#34;中的另一位成员是更好的长期机会。让我们探讨 Nvidia 与 <strong>Amazon</strong>（AMZN -2.61%）之间的动态，并评估为什么这家电子商务和云计算的明星公司在下一个十年可能更具价值。</p>
</div><h2>Why Amazon's growth looks poised to accelerate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 Amazon 的增长看起来即将加速</h2>
</div><p>Over the last two decades Amazon has extended far beyond its e-commerce marketplace. Today, the company operates across cloud computing infrastructure, advertising, streaming and entertainment, logistics, grocery delivery, subscription services, and more. By diversifying its ecosystem, Amazon has acquired a lucrative combination of retail and corporate consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的二十年里，Amazon 的业务已经远远超出了其电子商务市场。如今，该公司在云计算基础设施、广告、流媒体和娱乐、物流、杂货配送、订阅服务等多个领域运营。通过多元化其生态系统，Amazon 获得了零售和企业消费者的丰厚组合。</p>
</div><p>For a couple of years now, Amazon has quietly been pouring billions into a number of AI-related initiatives as it begins to build the next phase of its business. Some of the higher-priority moves the company has made includes investing $8 billion into a start-up called Anthropic, which has become an integral component of the company's cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去的几年里，Amazon 一直在悄悄地向多个与 AI 相关的项目投入数十亿美元，开始构建其业务的下一个阶段。该公司所做的一些优先事项包括向一家名为 Anthropic 的初创公司投资 80 亿美元，该公司已成为 Amazon 云计算平台 Amazon Web Services（AWS）的重要组成部分。</p>
</div><p>Amazon has also been focusing on building AI data centers, its own line of custom silicon chipsets, and doubling down on robotics automation processes for its fulfillment centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Amazon 还专注于建立 AI 数据中心、自有定制硅芯片组，并加大对其履行中心的机器人自动化流程的投入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/8735e501cd34f1268825e19c3ba5b51b.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 季度收入数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>If you look at the revenue and profit trends above, you might be questioning why Amazon is making these investments in the first place. Well, just check out the disparity between Nvidia's growth and Amazon's. It's clear that the slopes of Nvidia's revenue and profit lines are far steeper than Amazon's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你查看上面的收入和利润趋势，你可能会质疑 Amazon 为什么要进行这些投资。好吧，只需看看 Nvidia 的增长与 Amazon 的差距。显然，Nvidia 的收入和利润曲线的斜率远远陡峭于 Amazon。</p>
</div><p>With that said, I'd caution investors against dismissing Amazon's potential. Revenue and operating profits in AWS have been accelerating considerably since the Anthropic partnership commenced a couple of years ago. In addition, Nvidia sells some of the most important pieces of hardware and software needed to develop AI. In other words, Nvidia has been enjoying faster gains compared to its peers because companies need their products. Amazon, by contrast, has spent the last two years building new products and services that have yet to fully scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>话虽如此，我要提醒投资者不要低估 Amazon 的潜力。自从与 Anthropic 的合作开始以来，AWS 的收入和运营利润已经显著加速。此外，Nvidia 销售一些开发 AI 所需的最重要的硬件和软件。换句话说，Nvidia 之所以享受比同行更快的增长，是因为公司需要他们的产品。相比之下，Amazon 在过去两年里一直在构建尚未完全扩展的新产品和服务。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I think Amazon is in the early days of a new period of exponential growth. Below, I'll detail why Nvidia may be staring at a considerable slowdown over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，我认为 Amazon 正处于一个新的指数增长的早期阶段。接下来，我将详细说明为什么 Nvidia 在未来几年可能面临显著放缓。</p>
</div><h2>Why Nvidia's growth could begin to stall</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>为什么 Nvidia 的增长可能开始停滞</h2>
</div><p>The primary tailwind fueling Nvidia's business for the last couple of years is demand for compute and networking equipment for data centers. Companies investing in AI infrastructure rely heavily on chipsets called graphics processing units (GPUs), which is a piece of hardware that Nvidia specializes in designing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推动 Nvidia 在过去几年业务增长的主要动力是对数据中心计算和网络设备的需求。投资 AI 基础设施的公司在很大程度上依赖于被称为图形处理单元（GPU）的芯片组，而这正是 Nvidia 专注设计的硬件。</p>
</div><p>For a while, Nvidia had the luxury of virtually no direct competition. This provided the company with an enormous bargaining chip in the form of pricing power -- essentially charging a premium for its GPUs as companies all around the world lined up to buy them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一段时间以来，Nvidia 几乎没有直接竞争的奢侈。这为公司提供了巨大的议价筹码，形成了定价权——基本上以溢价出售其 GPU，因为全球各地的公司纷纷排队购买。</p>
</div><p>Although the launch of Nvidia's newest GPU architecture, Blackwell, is off to a strong start, I am beginning to question how much longer the company's pricing power is going to last. <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has finally launched its own line of competing GPUs, the MI300 accelerators. Although AMD's data center GPU business is much slower than that of Nvidia, it is growing at a fast clip while maintaining profitability. In addition, AMD is able to compete with Nvidia when it comes to price -- which has helped the company attract the likes of <strong>Oracle</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> as early adopters of the MI300 architecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管 Nvidia 最新的 GPU 架构 Blackwell 的推出势头强劲，但我开始质疑公司的定价权还能持续多久。<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 终于推出了自己的竞争 GPU 系列 MI300 加速器。尽管 AMD 的数据中心 GPU 业务远不及 Nvidia，但其增长速度很快且保持盈利。此外，AMD 在价格方面能够与 Nvidia 竞争——这帮助该公司吸引了 <strong>Oracle</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 等 MI300 架构的早期采用者。</p>
</div><p>Beyond direct competition, other hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Alphabet are joining Amazon in developing their custom silicon chips. With the addition of more chipsets coming to market, Nvidia faces the risk that businesses begin to see GPUs as a commoditized piece of hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了直接竞争，其他超大规模公司如 Microsoft 和 Alphabet 也在与 Amazon 一起开发他们的定制硅芯片。随着更多芯片组进入市场，Nvidia 面临着企业开始将 GPU 视为商品化硬件的风险。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Nvidia may be forced to loosen its pricing structure in order to remain competitive in the GPU realm -- a dynamic that will likely begin to show some meaningful deceleration across sales and profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Nvidia 可能被迫放松其定价结构，以保持在 GPU 领域的竞争力——这一动态可能会在销售和利润率上开始显现出一些显著的放缓。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQxMjg2MDA2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813901%2Fgettyimages-1412860060.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Taking a look at valuation disparity</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>看一下估值差异</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for Amazon and Nvidia over the last three years. It's interesting that the ongoing sell-off in the <strong>Nasdaq</strong> has converged both companies' P/E multiples to essentially the same value (hovering right around 30). In other words, although Nvidia's market cap of $2.3 trillion is much higher than Amazon's $1.8 trillion, both businesses are valued similarly on a P/E basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图展示了过去三年 Amazon 和 Nvidia 的市盈率（P/E）比率。有趣的是，<strong>纳斯达克</strong> 的持续抛售使得两家公司的市盈率倍数基本收敛到相同的值（大约在 30 左右）。换句话说，尽管 Nvidia 的市值为 2.3 万亿美元，远高于 Amazon 的 1.8 万亿美元，但两家公司的市盈率估值相似。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/abd65fef22c2acfacf0e3cfd8bd6bb2d.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>While I do think each stock is poised for a rebound, I think investors may begin to apply some more scrutiny over Nvidia. The company has been sizzling hot for the last two years and the momentum was surely going to stall out at some point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然我确实认为每只股票都有反弹的潜力，但我认为投资者可能会开始对 Nvidia 施加更多的审视。该公司在过去两年里一直火热，势头肯定会在某个时刻停滞。</p>
</div><p>Now as more competition begins to enter Nvidia's core market, the company is going to have to invest in other areas of the AI landscape in order to continue winning over enthusiasm from growth investors. By contrast, Amazon has already been making a number of investments -- many of which have yet to scale and fully bear fruit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着越来越多的竞争者开始进入英伟达的核心市场，该公司将不得不在人工智能领域的其他方面进行投资，以继续赢得成长投资者的热情。相比之下，亚马逊已经进行了多项投资——其中许多尚未实现规模化和完全见效。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I think Amazon is the better buy and hold than Nvidia right now, as I think the company is positioned to accelerate both sales and profits for years to come -- hence commanding a premium multiple over its peers down the road.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于这些原因，我认为亚马逊目前比英伟达更值得买入和持有，因为我认为该公司有望在未来几年加速销售和利润的增长——因此在未来将获得相对于同行的溢价倍数。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Be Worth More Than Nvidia in 2030

- 大型科技股在人工智能革命中受益显著，尤其是 Nvidia。  
- Amazon 通过多元化业务和 AI 投资，未来增长潜力巨大。  
- Nvidia 面临竞争加剧，可能导致增长放缓。

预测：这只人工智能（AI）股票将在 2030 年的价值超过英伟达