<p>电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -2.61%) 自 1997 年上市以来，确实让许多耐心的投资者成为了百万富翁。</p>
<p>但假装股票自那以来的 230,000% 的涨幅不是源于非凡的环境，这种想法显然是天真的。当然，这与互联网的普及有关，加上创始人杰夫·贝索斯对互联网如何成为强大购物媒介的愿景。这样的革命显然不会重演，因此亚马逊股票在那段时间的惊人表现也不会重现。</p>
<p>尽管如此，毫无疑问，亚马逊仍然是一股强大的力量。今天投资亚马逊会让你终身受益吗？</p>
<h2>近距离了解亚马逊</h2>
<p>亚马逊被广泛认为是电子商务业务的创始者，并且自此以来已成为至少北美市场的领导者。根据市场研究机构 Digital Commerce 360 的最新数据，亚马逊控制了美国在线购物市场约 40% 的份额，而电子商务直接或间接占亚马逊 2024 年 6380 亿美元总收入的 83%。</p>
<p>公司的其他 17% 的收入来自云计算。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）去年产生了 1075 亿美元的收入，同比增长 18%，并延续了类似增长的长期趋势。然而，AWS 在 2024 年贡献了 388 亿美元的营业收入，占公司营业利润的 58%，比例明显偏高。</p>
<p>亚马逊的电子商务业务虽然规模更大但利润较低，正在以一种可能最终扩大其净利润率的方式发生变化。即，在线购物中心越来越多地成为广告平台，2024 年产生了 580 亿美元的广告收入，比 2023 年的 470 亿美元增长了 23%。</p>
<p>去年，公司还实现了 440 亿美元的订阅业务，主要通过亚马逊 Prime，会员通常会在公司消费更多。</p>
<p>然而，问题仍然存在——今天购买亚马逊股票会让你终身受益吗？</p>
<h2>多重顺风推动</h2>
<p>如果你希望股票在其存在的前 28 年中表现重现，那就忘了吧。这是不可能的。那是一代人难得的幸运，几乎没有人预见到会如此。</p>
<p>尽管如此，超出平均水平的年度回报仍然可能对耐心的投资者产生改变人生的影响。</p>
<p>确实有理由抱有这样的乐观希望。以亚马逊电子商务业务的庞大规模以及电子商务的整体范围为例。美国人口普查局报告称，在线购物仅占全国零售支出的约 16%。</p>
<p>为此，Straits Research 建议，北美的消费者电子商务行业在现在到 2032 年之间可能以 9.3% 的年化速度增长。亚马逊无疑比其他任何参与者更有可能赢得其尚未控制的 60% 不断增长的北美电子商务市场的显著份额。</p>
<p>公司的海外业务表现也不差。尽管其国际电子商务业务在大部分时间内都处于亏损状态，但这一部门似乎在 2023 年实现了盈利，并保持了这一状态。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MTIvMDQwNjI1LWFtYXpvbi1kaXZpc2lvbi1vcGVyYXRpbmctaW5jb21lLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MTIvMDQwNjI1LWFtYXpvbi1kaXZpc2lvbi1vcGVyYXRpbmctaW5jb21lLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>数据来源：亚马逊公司。图表由作者制作。数字以十亿美元计。</p>
<p>行业研究机构 eMarketer 预测，全球消费者在线购物业务将在 2027 年前以每年约 8% 的速度增长，但在那之后仍然有更多的增长空间。eMarketer 表示，即使在这种增长下，到那时电子商务仍将仅占全球零售支出的 23%。</p>
<p>然后是亚马逊新兴的广告业务。所谓的零售媒体广告市场允许品牌通过销售其产品的第三方平台进行推广，预计到 2028 年将以每年 17% 的平均速度增长，这同样是 eMarketer 的预测。</p>
<p>至于云计算，AWS 已经领先的行业也有着漫长的增长前景。Mordor Intelligence 预计，全球云计算行业将在 2030 年前以每年超过 16% 的速度扩张，这再次只是对未来的一个可能暗示。</p>
<h2>持久的增长潜力</h2>
<p>亚马逊的最高增长时代可能已经过去，自 2 月份以来，股票因新实施的关税担忧而下跌了 30%。但该公司的主要利润来源——云计算——在经济逆风中基本免疫，因为世界对云解决方案的依赖程度极高。</p>
<p>与此同时，尽管经济逆风可能很快来袭，但它们实际上可能会对亚马逊有利。除非所有零售支出发生不太可能的彻底动荡，否则新近注重成本的消费者可能会更倾向于选择亚马逊经常较低价格的商品。无论如何，任何这样的放缓都只会是暂时的。</p>
<p>这可能会有所帮助。尽管个人投资者在过去几周内显然对亚马逊的可预见未来感到担忧，但分析师们并没有。分析师社区目前将亚马逊股票评为强烈买入，普遍目标价为 266.70 美元，比该股票最近的价格高出 50%。这不是开始一项新的长期交易的坏方法，确实可能让你终身受益。</p>
<p>你只需要足够耐心去等待。</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊（AMZN）自 1997 年首次公开募股以来，已经使许多投资者成为百万富翁，其惊人的 230,000% 的收益归功于互联网的增长和杰夫·贝索斯的愿景。目前，亚马逊在美国在线购物市场占据 40% 的份额，电子商务和云计算推动了收入增长。尽管股价有所下滑，亚马逊的电子商务和广告部门仍显示出增长潜力，其云计算部门也保持强劲。分析师建议，尽管过去的表现不会重现，但在不断发展的电子商务环境中，亚马逊仍可能为耐心的投资者提供可观的回报</p>

<p>E-commerce giant <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.61%) has certainly turned several patient investors into millionaires since its public offering in 1997.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电子商务巨头 <strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -2.61%) 自 1997 年上市以来，确实让许多耐心的投资者成为了百万富翁。</p>
</div><p>But it would be naïve to pretend that the stock's 230,000% gain since then wasn't rooted in extraordinary circumstances. That's the proliferation of the internet, of course, paired with founder Jeff Bezos' vision of how the internet would become a powerful shopping medium. That revolution obviously won't be repeated, so neither will Amazon stock's stunning performance during that time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但假装股票自那以来的 230,000% 的涨幅不是源于非凡的环境，这种想法显然是天真的。当然，这与互联网的普及有关，加上创始人杰夫·贝索斯对互联网如何成为强大购物媒介的愿景。这样的革命显然不会重演，因此亚马逊股票在那段时间的惊人表现也不会重现。</p>
</div><p>Still, there's no denying that Amazon remains a powerhouse. Could a new investment in it today set you up for life?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，毫无疑问，亚马逊仍然是一股强大的力量。今天投资亚马逊会让你终身受益吗？</p>
</div><h2>Amazon, up close and personal</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>近距离了解亚马逊</h2>
</div><p>Amazon is largely credited with the creation of the e-commerce business, and has since become the leader of at least North America's sliver of the market. As of its most recent look, market research outfit Digital Commerce 360 says Amazon controls about 40% of the United States' online shopping market, while e-commerce directly or indirectly makes up 83% of Amazon's 2024 top line of $638 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊被广泛认为是电子商务业务的创始者，并且自此以来已成为至少北美市场的领导者。根据市场研究机构 Digital Commerce 360 的最新数据，亚马逊控制了美国在线购物市场约 40% 的份额，而电子商务直接或间接占亚马逊 2024 年 6380 亿美元总收入的 83%。</p>
</div><p>The other 17% of the company's revenue comes from cloud computing. Amazon Web Services (or AWS) generated $107.5 billion worth of revenue last year, up 18% year over year, and extending a long streak of similar growth. However, AWS contributed $38.8 billion worth of operating income in 2024, or a disproportionately greater 58% of the company's operating profit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的其他 17% 的收入来自云计算。亚马逊网络服务（AWS）去年产生了 1075 亿美元的收入，同比增长 18%，并延续了类似增长的长期趋势。然而，AWS 在 2024 年贡献了 388 亿美元的营业收入，占公司营业利润的 58%，比例明显偏高。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's bigger-but-less-profitable e-commerce business is also changing in a way that may ultimately widen its net profit margin rates. Namely, the online shopping mall is increasingly an advertising platform, generating $58 billion worth of ad revenue in 2024, up 23% from 2023's tally of $47 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的电子商务业务虽然规模更大但利润较低，正在以一种可能最终扩大其净利润率的方式发生变化。即，在线购物中心越来越多地成为广告平台，2024 年产生了 580 亿美元的广告收入，比 2023 年的 470 亿美元增长了 23%。</p>
</div><p>The company also did $44 billion worth of subscription business last year, mostly via Amazon Prime, whose members tend to spend more money with the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，公司还实现了 440 亿美元的订阅业务，主要通过亚马逊 Prime，会员通常会在公司消费更多。</p>
</div><p>The question remains, however -- could buying Amazon stock today set you up for life?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，问题仍然存在——今天购买亚马逊股票会让你终身受益吗？</p>
</div><h2>Multiple tailwinds blowing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>多重顺风推动</h2>
</div><p>If you're looking for a repeat of the stock's performance during the first 28 years of its existence, forget about it. It's not going to happen. That was a once-in-a-generation stroke of luck that few people saw coming the way it did.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你希望股票在其存在的前 28 年中表现重现，那就忘了吧。这是不可能的。那是一代人难得的幸运，几乎没有人预见到会如此。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, an above-average yearly return could still prove life-changing to patient investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，超出平均水平的年度回报仍然可能对耐心的投资者产生改变人生的影响。</p>
</div><p>There's certainly reason for such optimistic hope. Take the sheer current size of Amazon's e-commerce business as an example, and the scope of e-commerce in general. The U.S. Census Bureau reports that online shopping only accounts for about 16% of the nation's total retail spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>确实有理由抱有这样的乐观希望。以亚马逊电子商务业务的庞大规模以及电子商务的整体范围为例。美国人口普查局报告称，在线购物仅占全国零售支出的约 16%。</p>
</div><p>To this end, Straits Research suggests that North America's business-to-consumer e-commerce industry could grow at an annualized pace of 9.3% between now and 2032. Amazon's arguably better positioned than any other player to win a significant share of the 60% of the ever-growing North American e-commerce market that it doesn't already control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为此，Straits Research 建议，北美的消费者电子商务行业在现在到 2032 年之间可能以 9.3% 的年化速度增长。亚马逊无疑比其他任何参与者更有可能赢得其尚未控制的 60% 不断增长的北美电子商务市场的显著份额。</p>
</div><p>The company's not doing too shabbily overseas, either. Although its international e-commerce operation had been unprofitable for most of its existence, this arm appears to have turned a profit corner in 2023, and stayed there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的海外业务表现也不差。尽管其国际电子商务业务在大部分时间内都处于亏损状态，但这一部门似乎在 2023 年实现了盈利，并保持了这一状态。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTM5MTIvMDQwNjI1LWFtYXpvbi1kaXZpc2lvbi1vcGVyYXRpbmctaW5jb21lLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F813912%2F040625-amazon-division-operating-income.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Amazon Inc. Chart by author. Numbers are in billions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：亚马逊公司。图表由作者制作。数字以十亿美元计。</p>
</div><p>Industry research outfit eMarketer predicts that the global business-to-consumer online shopping business will grow on the order of 8% per year through 2027, but there will still be plenty more room to continue growing after that. eMarketer says that even with that growth, e-commerce will still only account for 23% of the planet's retail spending at the end of that timeframe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行业研究机构 eMarketer 预测，全球消费者在线购物业务将在 2027 年前以每年约 8% 的速度增长，但在那之后仍然有更多的增长空间。eMarketer 表示，即使在这种增长下，到那时电子商务仍将仅占全球零售支出的 23%。</p>
</div><p>Then there's Amazon's nascent advertising endeavor. The so-called retail media advertising market allowing brands to promote their products through the third-party platforms selling them is set to grow at an average annualized pace of 17% through 2028, again according to eMarketer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然后是亚马逊新兴的广告业务。所谓的零售媒体广告市场允许品牌通过销售其产品的第三方平台进行推广，预计到 2028 年将以每年 17% 的平均速度增长，这同样是 eMarketer 的预测。</p>
</div><p>As for cloud computing, the industry that AWS already leads has a long growth runway ahead as well. Mordor Intelligence expects the global cloud computing industry to expand by more than 16% per year through 2030, which once again is only a likely hint of what awaits past that point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于云计算，AWS 已经领先的行业也有着漫长的增长前景。Mordor Intelligence 预计，全球云计算行业将在 2030 年前以每年超过 16% 的速度扩张，这再次只是对未来的一个可能暗示。</p>
</div><h2>Growth potential that's built to last</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>持久的增长潜力</h2>
</div><p>Amazon's highest-growth era may be in the rearview mirror, and the stock itself may be down to the tune of 30% just since February on worries over the effect of newly enacted tariffs. But this company's top profit center -- cloud computing -- is largely immune to economic headwinds, simply because the world's become incredibly dependent on the cloud's solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的最高增长时代可能已经过去，自 2 月份以来，股票因新实施的关税担忧而下跌了 30%。但该公司的主要利润来源——云计算——在经济逆风中基本免疫，因为世界对云解决方案的依赖程度极高。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, although economic headwinds may soon be blowing, they could actually blow in Amazon's favor. Barring the unlikely outright upheaval of all retail spending, newly cost-conscious consumers may actually gravitate toward Amazon's frequently lower-priced assortment of goods. Either way, any such slowdown will only be a temporary one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，尽管经济逆风可能很快来袭，但它们实际上可能会对亚马逊有利。除非所有零售支出发生不太可能的彻底动荡，否则新近注重成本的消费者可能会更倾向于选择亚马逊经常较低价格的商品。无论如何，任何这样的放缓都只会是暂时的。</p>
</div><p>This might help. Although individual investors have clearly grown worried about Amazon's foreseeable future over the course of just the past few weeks, analysts haven't. The analyst community currently rates Amazon stock as a strong buy, with a consensus price target of $266.70 that's 50% above the ticker's recent price. That's not a bad way to start out a new long-term trade that, yes, could set you up for life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这可能会有所帮助。尽管个人投资者在过去几周内显然对亚马逊的可预见未来感到担忧，但分析师们并没有。分析师社区目前将亚马逊股票评为强烈买入，普遍目标价为 266.70 美元，比该股票最近的价格高出 50%。这不是开始一项新的长期交易的坏方法，确实可能让你终身受益。</p>
</div><p>You'll just need to be patient enough to let it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你只需要足够耐心去等待。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Amazon Stock Today Set You Up For Life?

- 亚马逊在美国在线购物市场占有约 40% 的份额，2024 年收入预计为 6380 亿美元。  
- 云计算业务 AWS 贡献了 58% 的运营利润，2024 年收入达 1075 亿美元。  
- 分析师对亚马逊股票持强烈买入评级，目标价为 266.70 美元。  

今天购买亚马逊股票能否让你一生无忧？