<p>在关税紧张局势升级导致市场剧烈波动后，华尔街正迎来一个潜在的改变游戏规则的时刻：定于周四上午发布的三月份通胀报告。</p>
<p>由于投资者对贸易壁垒上升带来的经济影响感到不安，消费者价格指数数据可能会增强降息的希望，或确认美联储在顽固通胀面前陷入困境，进一步打击投资者情绪。</p>
<p>美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 上周明确表示，降息 “没有急迫性”。他提到，关于经济增长和通胀的不确定性加剧，尤其是在白宫采取激进关税立场的背景下。</p>
<p>然而，消费者价格的显著降温可能为更温和的政策立场打开大门，因为政策制定者将把注意力转向关税可能造成的经济损害。</p>
<p>对于经历现代历史上最快的抛售之一的市场而言，温和的通胀数据可能是在其他动荡环境中急需的希望曙光。</p>
<p>在通胀报告发布之前，标普 500 指数——由 <strong>SPDR 标普 500 ETF 信托</strong>SPY 跟踪——自唐纳德·特朗普于 4 月 2 日宣布关税以来已下跌超过 10%，目前比 2 月份的峰值低 18%，接近熊市区域。</p>
<p>货币市场预计美联储在 5 月会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 43%。低于预期的通胀数据可能会显著提高这些概率，为紧张的市场提供潜在的缓解。</p>
<h3>三月份通胀预览：经济学家预测什么？</h3>
<p>经济学家的中位数预测显示，2025 年 3 月的整体 CPI 同比增长 2.6%，低于 2 月份的 2.8%，并标志着自 2024 年 10 月以来最低的通胀数据。</p>
<p>预计价格仅环比上涨 0.1%，低于上个月的 0.2%——这是自 2023 年 7 月以来最慢的增速。</p>
<p>核心 CPI（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分）预计将同比小幅放缓至 3.0%，低于 2 月份的 3.1%。然而，核心月度数据预计将上升至 0.3%，高于上个月的 0.2%。</p>
<p>高盛经济学家 <strong>杰西卡·林德尔斯</strong> 预测报告将大致符合共识。她强调了三种可能影响数据的基本趋势。首先，二手车价格预计将下降约 0.5%，这主要是由于批发拍卖价格的疲软。</p>
<p>与此同时，随着经销商激励措施的减少，新车价格可能会小幅上涨 0.1%。预计汽车保险的涨幅最为显著，保费急剧上升，可能在 3 月份推动该类别上涨 1.0%。</p>
<p>“展望未来，我们预计关税政策升级将推动月度通胀上升。除了关税影响外，我们预计基础趋势通胀在今年将进一步下降，反映出汽车、住房租赁和劳动力市场的贡献正在缩小，这部分被医疗保健的追赶通胀所抵消，” 林德尔斯表示。</p>
<p>核心通胀（不包括能源和食品项目）预计将在 3 月份从 3.1% 降至 3%。月度数据预计将从 0.2% 加速至 0.3%。</p>
<h3>“美联储保护伞” 已不再，华尔街资深分析师警告</h3>
<p>资深策略师 <strong>埃德·雅尔德尼</strong> 采取了更为谨慎的语气，警告称 CPI 和周五的生产者价格指数（PPI）报告可能会显示商品价格的快速上涨，这主要是由于进口税和供应链摩擦所致。</p>
<p>“美联储保护伞今年可能会暂停，” 雅尔德尼说，他指的是长期以来的假设，即美联储会在市场下跌时介入支持市场。</p>
<p>“即使关税和不确定性导致实际 GDP 放缓，美联储也可能不愿意降息。”</p>
<p>雅尔德尼表示，较高的整体通胀可能迫使中央银行将利率维持在高位的时间超过市场预期，这加剧了股市的风险，而股市已经因他所称的 “特朗普关税动荡”（TTT）而受到冲击。</p>
<p><strong>立即阅读：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>华尔街的 “美国例外主义” 交易因美元、股票、债券全线下滑而受挫</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

高盛

<p>即将发布的三月通胀报告对市场至关重要，预计消费者价格指数（CPI）将下降，这可能支持在贸易不确定性中降息。高盛预测结果与市场共识一致，预计同比 CPI 上涨 2.6%。较低的通胀数据可能增加美联储在五月降息 25 个基点的可能性。然而，由于关税导致商品价格上涨，谨慎情绪依然存在，这可能使利率维持在高位的时间超过预期，从而影响投资者情绪</p>

<p>After wild market volatility amid escalating tariff tensions, Wall Street is heading into a potentially game-changing moment: the March inflation report, due Thursday morning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在关税紧张局势升级导致市场剧烈波动后，华尔街正迎来一个潜在的改变游戏规则的时刻：定于周四上午发布的三月份通胀报告。</p>
</div><p>With investors jittery over the economic fallout from rising trade barriers, the Consumer Price Index data could either bolster hopes for rate cuts or confirm fears that the Federal Reserve remains cornered by sticky inflation, further disappointing investor sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于投资者对贸易壁垒上升带来的经济影响感到不安，消费者价格指数数据可能会增强降息的希望，或确认美联储在顽固通胀面前陷入困境，进一步打击投资者情绪。</p>
</div><p>Fed Chair <strong>Jerome Powell</strong> made it clear last week that there is “no rush” for rate cuts. He cited heightened uncertainty around growth and inflation, particularly in light of the White House's aggressive tariff stance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席 <strong>杰罗姆·鲍威尔</strong> 上周明确表示，降息 “没有急迫性”。他提到，关于经济增长和通胀的不确定性加剧，尤其是在白宫采取激进关税立场的背景下。</p>
</div><p>Yet, a meaningful cooling in consumer prices might open the door to a more dovish posture as policymakers would shift their focus to the likely economic damage from tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，消费者价格的显著降温可能为更温和的政策立场打开大门，因为政策制定者将把注意力转向关税可能造成的经济损害。</p>
</div><p>For a market gripped by one of the fastest selloffs in modern history, a soft inflation print could be a much-needed glimmer of hope in an otherwise stormy environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于经历现代历史上最快的抛售之一的市场而言，温和的通胀数据可能是在其他动荡环境中急需的希望曙光。</p>
</div><p>In the lead-up to the inflation report, the S&amp;P 500 — tracked by the <strong>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</strong> SPY — has dropped more than 10% since Donald Trump's tariff announcement on April 2 and now sits 18% below its February peak, flirting with bear market territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在通胀报告发布之前，标普 500 指数——由 <strong>SPDR 标普 500 ETF 信托</strong>SPY 跟踪——自唐纳德·特朗普于 4 月 2 日宣布关税以来已下跌超过 10%，目前比 2 月份的峰值低 18%，接近熊市区域。</p>
</div><p>Money markets are pricing in a 43% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting. A softer-than-expected inflation print could significantly boost those odds, offering potential relief to jittery markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>货币市场预计美联储在 5 月会议上降息 25 个基点的概率为 43%。低于预期的通胀数据可能会显著提高这些概率，为紧张的市场提供潜在的缓解。</p>
</div><h3>March Inflation Preview: What Do Economists Predict?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>三月份通胀预览：经济学家预测什么？</h3>
</div><p>The median estimate from economists calls for a 2.6% year-over-year rise in headline CPI for March 2025, easing from February's 2.8% and marking the lowest inflation print since October 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>经济学家的中位数预测显示，2025 年 3 月的整体 CPI 同比增长 2.6%，低于 2 月份的 2.8%，并标志着自 2024 年 10 月以来最低的通胀数据。</p>
</div><p>Prices are expected to tick up just 0.1% monthly, down from 0.2% the previous month—the slowest pace since July 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计价格仅环比上涨 0.1%，低于上个月的 0.2%——这是自 2023 年 7 月以来最慢的增速。</p>
</div><p>Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, is projected to decelerate modestly to 3.0% year-over-year, down from 3.1% in February. Yet, the monthly core reading is expected to tick higher to 0.3%, up from the prior month's 0.2% pace.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心 CPI（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分）预计将同比小幅放缓至 3.0%，低于 2 月份的 3.1%。然而，核心月度数据预计将上升至 0.3%，高于上个月的 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs economist <strong>Jessica Rindels</strong> projects the report to come in broadly in line with consensus. She highlights three underlying trends likely to shape the data. First, used vehicle prices are expected to decline by around 0.5%, driven by softness in wholesale auction prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛经济学家 <strong>杰西卡·林德尔斯</strong> 预测报告将大致符合共识。她强调了三种可能影响数据的基本趋势。首先，二手车价格预计将下降约 0.5%，这主要是由于批发拍卖价格的疲软。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, new car prices may see a marginal rise of 0.1% as dealership incentives dwindle. The most notable increase is forecast in car insurance, where premiums are rising sharply, potentially pushing the category up by 1.0% in March.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，随着经销商激励措施的减少，新车价格可能会小幅上涨 0.1%。预计汽车保险的涨幅最为显著，保费急剧上升，可能在 3 月份推动该类别上涨 1.0%。</p>
</div><p>“Going forward, we expect a boost to monthly inflation from the escalation in tariff policy. Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further this year, reflecting shrinking contributions from the auto, housing rental, and labor markets that is partially offset by catch-up inflation in healthcare,” Rindels said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“展望未来，我们预计关税政策升级将推动月度通胀上升。除了关税影响外，我们预计基础趋势通胀在今年将进一步下降，反映出汽车、住房租赁和劳动力市场的贡献正在缩小，这部分被医疗保健的追赶通胀所抵消，” 林德尔斯表示。</p>
</div><p>Core inflation, which excludes energy and food items, is expected to ease from 3.1% to 3% annually in March. The monthly reading is seen accelerating from 0.2% to 0.3%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>核心通胀（不包括能源和食品项目）预计将在 3 月份从 3.1% 降至 3%。月度数据预计将从 0.2% 加速至 0.3%。</p>
</div><h3>The ‘Fed Put’ Is Off The Table, Wall Street Veteran Analyst Warns</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>“美联储保护伞” 已不再，华尔街资深分析师警告</h3>
</div><p>Veteran strategist <strong>Ed Yardeni</strong> takes a more cautionary tone, warning that the CPI and Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) report may reveal faster gains in goods prices, driven by import taxes and supply chain friction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>资深策略师 <strong>埃德·雅尔德尼</strong> 采取了更为谨慎的语气，警告称 CPI 和周五的生产者价格指数（PPI）报告可能会显示商品价格的快速上涨，这主要是由于进口税和供应链摩擦所致。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The Fed Put is likely on hold this year,&#34; Yardeni said, referring to the long-standing assumption that the Fed would step in to support markets during downturns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“美联储保护伞今年可能会暂停，” 雅尔德尼说，他指的是长期以来的假设，即美联储会在市场下跌时介入支持市场。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Even if tariffs and uncertainty cause a real GDP slowdown, the Fed may be reluctant to cut.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“即使关税和不确定性导致实际 GDP 放缓，美联储也可能不愿意降息。”</p>
</div><p>Yardeni indicated that higher headline inflation could force the central bank to keep rates elevated longer than the market expects, compounding risks for equity markets already reeling from what he calls the &#34;Trump Tariff Turmoil&#34; (TTT).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雅尔德尼表示，较高的整体通胀可能迫使中央银行将利率维持在高位的时间超过市场预期，这加剧了股市的风险，而股市已经因他所称的 “特朗普关税动荡”（TTT）而受到冲击。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read now:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>立即阅读：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Wall Street’s ‘American Exceptionalism’ Trade Falters As Dollar, Stocks, Bonds All Slide</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>华尔街的 “美国例外主义” 交易因美元、股票、债券全线下滑而受挫</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Photo: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

沉浮？为什么本周的通胀报告对市场至关重要