<p>在 2023 年 12 月创下历史新高的五年间，这家知名的面向消费者的企业的股票上涨了惊人的 321%。这一涨幅轻松超越了同期 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的表现。</p>
<p>然而，增长放缓正在让投资者感到恐慌。这只成长股目前的交易价格比其历史最高点低 52%。也许是时候仔细看看了。这个公司现在是否提供了十年一遇的买入机会？</p>
<h2>面对宏观挑战</h2>
<p>在 2021 财年，<strong>露露乐蒙</strong>（LULU 10.47%）报告了 42.1% 的年同比收入增长。三年后，这一增长率在 2024 财年（截至 2 月 2 日）降至 10.1%。公平地说，期望 2021 年的那种扩张持续下去并不合理。尤其是在过去几年疫情对零售行业的影响下，在线购物极为流行。</p>
<p>如今，宏观经济因素难以忽视。今年消费者信心急剧下降。美联储并不急于降息以促进贷款活动。而持续不确定的关税问题使得没有人真正知道事情将如何发展。</p>
<p>露露乐蒙从越南采购 40% 的商品，这一点并不令人鼓舞。特朗普总统对来自这个亚洲国家的商品实施了 46% 的新关税，但在谈判中暂停了这一关税。这种不确定性让高管们处于困境。</p>
<p>就目前的情况而言，任何人都很难对露露乐蒙的短期前景持乐观态度。甚至管理层也采取了谨慎的语气。首席执行官卡尔文·麦克唐纳在 2024 财年第四季度的财报电话会议上提到，&#34;由于对通货膨胀和经济的担忧加剧，消费者的支出减少了，&#34;这是公司最近进行的一项调查的结果。</p>
<h2>关注积极因素</h2>
<p>露露乐蒙可能正在失去投资界的信任。然而，仍然有理由对这家企业保持积极态度。</p>
<p>该公司已经建立了一个强大的品牌，定位于服装行业的高端市场。高质量的商品不依赖于第三方零售商的销售，有助于提高消费者的可见度。品牌是露露乐蒙所拥有的竞争优势。</p>
<p>露露乐蒙的盈利能力令人印象深刻。再次强调，品牌的高端地位支持了定价能力，给公司的底线带来了好处。在过去五年中，露露乐蒙的毛利率和营业利润率平均分别为 57.3% 和 21.8%。这是出色的底线表现。</p>
<p>增长在放缓，但露露乐蒙仍在以健康的速度扩张。在当前财年，管理团队预计收入将增长 5% 至 7%。这与投资者习惯看到的两位数增长相去甚远，但比行业巨头 <strong>耐克</strong> 预测的当前财季两位数下降要好得多。</p>
<h2>估值与竞争</h2>
<p>一方面，投资于一家增长放缓且大部分产品在当前谈判关税的国家生产的服装和鞋类公司似乎是个错误。这增加了许多投资者可能不愿接受的不确定性。</p>
<p>另一方面，当前的估值可能完全反映了新的现实。该股的市盈率（P/E）在撰写时为 16.9，远低于标准普尔 500 指数。在过去十年中，估值从未如此便宜，突显了市场对露露乐蒙的极度悲观。</p>
<p>我认为露露乐蒙的股票值得那些愿意接受更多风险的投资者仔细关注，因为在未来五年内有相当大的上行空间。然而，我还不准备说这是十年一遇的买入机会。</p>

露露乐蒙

<p>露露乐蒙的股价从历史高点下跌了 52%，引发了关于潜在买入机会的讨论。该公司在过去经历了显著的增长，但现在面临宏观经济挑战，包括消费者信心下降和关税不确定性。尽管增长预期放缓，露露乐蒙仍保持强劲的盈利能力和竞争品牌地位。与标准普尔 500 指数相比，该股票目前的估值较低，暗示对于风险承受能力强的投资者可能存在上行空间，但对于当前市场情绪仍需保持谨慎</p>

<p>During the five years leading up to their all-time high in December 2023, shares of this well-known, consumer-facing enterprise were up an astonishing 321%. That gain easily crushed what the broader <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> produced during the same time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2023 年 12 月创下历史新高的五年间，这家知名的面向消费者的企业的股票上涨了惊人的 321%。这一涨幅轻松超越了同期 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的表现。</p>
</div><p>Slower growth, however, is scaring investors. This growth stock now trades 52% below its record. Maybe it's time to take a closer look. Is this company providing a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity right now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，增长放缓正在让投资者感到恐慌。这只成长股目前的交易价格比其历史最高点低 52%。也许是时候仔细看看了。这个公司现在是否提供了十年一遇的买入机会？</p>
</div><h2>Facing macro challenges</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>面对宏观挑战</h2>
</div><p>In fiscal 2021, <strong>Lululemon</strong>(LULU 10.47%) reported fantastic year-over-year revenue growth of 42.1%. Fast-forward three years, and that growth rate fell to 10.1% for fiscal 2024 (ended Feb. 2). To be fair, it's not reasonable to expect the type of expansion from 2021 to continue indefinitely. This is particularly true in light of the pandemic's impact on the retail sector over the past few years when online shopping was extremely popular.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2021 财年，<strong>露露乐蒙</strong>（LULU 10.47%）报告了 42.1% 的年同比收入增长。三年后，这一增长率在 2024 财年（截至 2 月 2 日）降至 10.1%。公平地说，期望 2021 年的那种扩张持续下去并不合理。尤其是在过去几年疫情对零售行业的影响下，在线购物极为流行。</p>
</div><p>These days, macroeconomic forces are hard to ignore. Consumer confidence has been declining sharply this year. The Federal Reserve is in no rush to cut interest rates to help boost lending activity. And the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs has created a situation in which no one really knows how things are going to play out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，宏观经济因素难以忽视。今年消费者信心急剧下降。美联储并不急于降息以促进贷款活动。而持续不确定的关税问题使得没有人真正知道事情将如何发展。</p>
</div><p>It's not encouraging that Lululemon sources 40% of its merchandise from Vietnam. President Trump implemented a new 46% tariff on goods from this Asian nation, only to pause the tariff amid negotiations. This uncertainty puts executives in a tough spot.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>露露乐蒙从越南采购 40% 的商品，这一点并不令人鼓舞。特朗普总统对来自这个亚洲国家的商品实施了 46% 的新关税，但在谈判中暂停了这一关税。这种不确定性让高管们处于困境。</p>
</div><p>As things stand today, it's difficult for anyone to be optimistic about the near-term prospects for Lululemon. Even management is adopting a cautious tone. &#34;Consumers are spending less due to increased concerns about inflation and the economy,&#34; CEO Calvin McDonald said on the fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call about a survey the business recently conducted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就目前的情况而言，任何人都很难对露露乐蒙的短期前景持乐观态度。甚至管理层也采取了谨慎的语气。首席执行官卡尔文·麦克唐纳在 2024 财年第四季度的财报电话会议上提到，&#34;由于对通货膨胀和经济的担忧加剧，消费者的支出减少了，&#34;这是公司最近进行的一项调查的结果。</p>
</div><h2>Focus on the positives</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关注积极因素</h2>
</div><p>Lululemon might be losing the trust of the investment community. However, there are still reasons to remain positive about the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>露露乐蒙可能正在失去投资界的信任。然而，仍然有理由对这家企业保持积极态度。</p>
</div><p>The company has developed a strong brand that's positioned at the premium end of the apparel industry. High-quality merchandise sold without a dependence on third-party retailers helps drive better visibility with consumers. The brand is a competitive advantage that Lululemon possesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司已经建立了一个强大的品牌，定位于服装行业的高端市场。高质量的商品不依赖于第三方零售商的销售，有助于提高消费者的可见度。品牌是露露乐蒙所拥有的竞争优势。</p>
</div><p>Lululemon's profitability is impressive. Again, the brand's high-end status supports pricing power that has benefited the company's bottom line. Lululemon's gross margin and operating margin have averaged 57.3% and 21.8%, respectively, in the past five years. This is outstanding bottom-line performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>露露乐蒙的盈利能力令人印象深刻。再次强调，品牌的高端地位支持了定价能力，给公司的底线带来了好处。在过去五年中，露露乐蒙的毛利率和营业利润率平均分别为 57.3% 和 21.8%。这是出色的底线表现。</p>
</div><p>The growth is slowing, but Lululemon is still expanding at a healthy clip. For the current fiscal year, the leadership team expects revenue to increase between 5% and 7%. That's not close to the double-digit gains investors might be used to seeing, but it's much better than the double-digit decline that industry heavyweight <strong>Nike</strong> is forecasting for its current fiscal quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>增长在放缓，但露露乐蒙仍在以健康的速度扩张。在当前财年，管理团队预计收入将增长 5% 至 7%。这与投资者习惯看到的两位数增长相去甚远，但比行业巨头 <strong>耐克</strong> 预测的当前财季两位数下降要好得多。</p>
</div><h2>Valuation and competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>估值与竞争</h2>
</div><p>On the one hand, it can seem like a mistake to invest in an apparel and footwear company that's exhibiting slower growth and makes a lot of its products in a country that is currently negotiating tariffs. That adds a lot of uncertainty that investors might not be comfortable with.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，投资于一家增长放缓且大部分产品在当前谈判关税的国家生产的服装和鞋类公司似乎是个错误。这增加了许多投资者可能不愿接受的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, the current valuation might fully reflect the new reality. The stock is much cheaper than the S&amp;P 500, trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.9 at the time of this writing (April 8). The valuation has never been cheaper in the past decade, underscoring the market's extreme pessimism toward Lululemon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，当前的估值可能完全反映了新的现实。该股的市盈率（P/E）在撰写时为 16.9，远低于标准普尔 500 指数。在过去十年中，估值从未如此便宜，突显了市场对露露乐蒙的极度悲观。</p>
</div><p>I believe Lululemon shares deserve a closer look from investors willing to accept more risk, as there is sizable upside over the next five years. However, I'm not ready to say this is a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为露露乐蒙的股票值得那些愿意接受更多风险的投资者仔细关注，因为在未来五年内有相当大的上行空间。然而，我还不准备说这是十年一遇的买入机会。</p>
</div>

这个知名消费品牌曾经是一个明星股票。随着股价下跌 52%，现在是十年一遇的买入机会吗？