<p><strong>英伟达</strong> 首席执行官黄仁勋在一月份引发了人们对量子计算新兴领域的怀疑。他的评论暗示该技术距离商业化应用仍需 15 到 20 年，这被视为对行业前景的重大失望，导致多家公司的股票出现急剧抛售，例如 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 0.69%)、<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -1.74%) 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 0.16%)，这些公司正在开发创新的量子解决方案。</p>
<p>然而，在上个月的英伟达 GPU 技术大会的 “量子日” 活动上，黄仁勋对之前的怀疑态度进行了反转。他承认自己可能被误导，转而拥抱被视为计算技术下一个前沿的量子计算，宣布对研究进行新的投资。行业领先公司出席了此次活动，借此机会强调他们最近的突破和颠覆性潜力。</p>
<p>现在量子计算股票值得购买吗？以下是您需要了解的内容。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxMDEvamVuc2VuLW52aWRpYS1jZW8tYnVsbGlzaC1xdWFudHVtLXN0b2Nrcy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxMDEvamVuc2VuLW52aWRpYS1jZW8tYnVsbGlzaC1xdWFudHVtLXN0b2Nrcy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>量子计算机的 NISQ 时代</h2>
<p>量子计算机旨在解决机器学习、优化、模拟和密码学等领域的高度复杂计算，超越包括英伟达高性能 GPU 在内的最先进超级计算机。</p>
<p>与依赖于二进制逻辑的经典计算机不同，量子计算机使用量子比特（qubits），可以在额外维度中同时表示 0、1 或两者。通过叠加和纠缠，量子系统为独特任务（如加密）和可能模仿人类思维的下一代人工智能（AI）解锁了指数级更强的处理能力，而不受训练数据集的限制。</p>
<p>这项技术是真实存在的，已经有多家公司在追求多样化的量子架构，每种架构都有其独特的优势。IonQ 利用捕获离子技术，在 2024 年（截至 12 月 31 日）产生了 4700 万美元的收入，采用其量子计算即服务（QCaaS）模型在云平台上运营。尽管目前尚未盈利，该公司预计今年收入将几乎翻倍。类似地，D-Wave Quantum 最近报告有 135 个客户正在探索其量子退火方法的实际应用。在撰写本文时，其股票在过去一年中上涨了超过 220%。</p>
<p>另一方面，尽管在早期商业进展中取得了一些成就，但该技术仍被认为停留在噪声中间规模量子（NISQ）时代。当前系统虽然能够实现量子解决方案，但在显著扩展量子比特的同时管理不断上升的错误率方面面临挑战，限制了它们仅能用于小众或研究应用，因为它们尚未能够在可靠的基础上超越传统硬件。量子计算行业仍处于早期阶段，该领域的纯粹公司仍面临漫长的道路，以证明其潜力。</p>
<h2>长期承诺与短期机会</h2>
<p>黄仁勋在淡化量子计算的短期重要性方面可能至少是部分正确的，因为到目前为止，这并未威胁到英伟达的半导体领导地位。然而，故事远未结束，突破进入后 NISQ 时代的可能性——这一时代的特征是拥有数十万个量子比特和容错错误校正的系统——可能会比预期更早到来。</p>
<p>像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 这样的科技巨头正在推进他们的量子研究与开发，争夺专家预计到 2040 年将达到 1700 亿美元的量子硬件和软件供应商市场机会。2 月份，微软推出了其 Majorana 1 量子芯片，采用了一种新颖的方法来稳定量子比特，他们相信这加快了变革性商业量子应用的时间表。即使是英伟达也可能从这一变化的格局中受益，因为其 GPU 与量子芯片在同一技术基础设施中集成。</p>
<p>与此同时，像 Rigetti Computing 这样的纯量子计算公司在短期内的增长机会显著，尽管它们的规模仍然相对较小。各行业的早期采用者客户正在大量投资以保持领先，突显了量子开发的战略重要性。</p>
<h2>我持谨慎乐观态度</h2>
<p>投资者在股市中有多种选择可以进入量子计算领域——从成熟的科技巨头到新兴的颠覆者。尽管近期股市波动剧烈以及对美国经济强度的担忧，但人们对量子计算作为技术的长期增长驱动力的信心刚刚开始。</p>
<p>在整个行业经历深度抛售后，我看到谨慎乐观的空间，并开始逐步投资于一些被打压的颠覆者。那些能够成功实现优越平台货币化的公司将在长期内为股东带来丰厚回报。</p>

QBTS

IONQ

<p>Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋已经改变了他之前对量子计算的怀疑态度，承认可能存在误判，并宣布在该领域的新投资。尽管量子技术目前存在局限性，但 IonQ 和 D-Wave Quantum 等公司正在取得进展，IonQ 的收入达到了 4700 万美元，而 D-Wave 的股票在过去一年中上涨了超过 220%。预计到 2040 年，量子计算市场将达到 1700 亿美元，微软和 Alphabet 等科技巨头也在大力投资。投资者被建议谨慎考虑这一新兴领域的机会</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong> CEO Jensen Huang made headlines in January, sowing skepticism toward the emerging field of quantum computing. His comments, which suggested the technology was still 15 to 20 years away from being commercially useful, were seen as a major disappointment to industry prospects, triggering a sharp sell-off in shares of several companies, such as <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 0.69%), <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -1.74%), and <strong>Rigetti</strong> <strong>Computing</strong>(RGTI 0.16%), developing innovative quantum solutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英伟达</strong> 首席执行官黄仁勋在一月份引发了人们对量子计算新兴领域的怀疑。他的评论暗示该技术距离商业化应用仍需 15 到 20 年，这被视为对行业前景的重大失望，导致多家公司的股票出现急剧抛售，例如 <strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>(QBTS 0.69%)、<strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ -1.74%) 和 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI 0.16%)，这些公司正在开发创新的量子解决方案。</p>
</div><p>However, at last month's Nvidia GPU Technology Conference during a &#34;Quantum Day&#34; event, Huang made an about-face on his prior doubts. Admitting he may have been misinformed, he pivoted to embrace what is seen as the next frontier in computing technology, announcing new investments into research. Leading industry companies were present, taking the opportunity to highlight their recent breakthroughs and game-changing potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在上个月的英伟达 GPU 技术大会的 “量子日” 活动上，黄仁勋对之前的怀疑态度进行了反转。他承认自己可能被误导，转而拥抱被视为计算技术下一个前沿的量子计算，宣布对研究进行新的投资。行业领先公司出席了此次活动，借此机会强调他们最近的突破和颠覆性潜力。</p>
</div><p>Are quantum computing stocks a buy right now? Here's what you need to know.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在量子计算股票值得购买吗？以下是您需要了解的内容。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQxMDEvamVuc2VuLW52aWRpYS1jZW8tYnVsbGlzaC1xdWFudHVtLXN0b2Nrcy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814101%2Fjensen-nvidia-ceo-bullish-quantum-stocks.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The NISQ era for quantum computers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>量子计算机的 NISQ 时代</h2>
</div><p>Quantum computers are designed to tackle highly complex calculations in fields like machine learning, optimization, simulations, and cryptography, surpassing even the most advanced supercomputers, including those powered by Nvidia's high-performance GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子计算机旨在解决机器学习、优化、模拟和密码学等领域的高度复杂计算，超越包括英伟达高性能 GPU 在内的最先进超级计算机。</p>
</div><p>Unlike classical computers that rely on binary logic, quantum computers use qubits, which can represent 0, 1, or both simultaneously in an additional dimension. Through superposition and entanglement, quantum systems unlock exponentially greater processing power for unique tasks, such as encryption, and for potentially next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) that mimics human thinking unbound by trained datasets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与依赖于二进制逻辑的经典计算机不同，量子计算机使用量子比特（qubits），可以在额外维度中同时表示 0、1 或两者。通过叠加和纠缠，量子系统为独特任务（如加密）和可能模仿人类思维的下一代人工智能（AI）解锁了指数级更强的处理能力，而不受训练数据集的限制。</p>
</div><p>The technology is real and already present, with multiple companies pursuing diverse quantum architectures, each offering distinct advantages. IonQ, leveraging trapped-ion technology, generated $47 million in revenue in 2024 (for the period ended Dec. 31) with its quantum computing as-a-service (QCaaS) model on cloud platforms. While not currently profitable, the company is projecting to nearly double its revenue this year. Similarly, D-Wave Quantum last reported 135 customers exploring real-world applications with its quantum annealing approach. Its shares are up more than 220% over the past year at the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这项技术是真实存在的，已经有多家公司在追求多样化的量子架构，每种架构都有其独特的优势。IonQ 利用捕获离子技术，在 2024 年（截至 12 月 31 日）产生了 4700 万美元的收入，采用其量子计算即服务（QCaaS）模型在云平台上运营。尽管目前尚未盈利，该公司预计今年收入将几乎翻倍。类似地，D-Wave Quantum 最近报告有 135 个客户正在探索其量子退火方法的实际应用。在撰写本文时，其股票在过去一年中上涨了超过 220%。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, despite this early commercial progress, the technology is recognized as still stuck in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era. Current systems, while capable of achieving quantum solutions, face challenges in scaling qubits significantly while managing rising error rates, limiting them to niche or research applications since they are not yet able to outperform conventional hardware on a reliable basis. It's still early for the quantum computing industry, with the pure play companies in the segment still facing a long road ahead to prove their potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，尽管在早期商业进展中取得了一些成就，但该技术仍被认为停留在噪声中间规模量子（NISQ）时代。当前系统虽然能够实现量子解决方案，但在显著扩展量子比特的同时管理不断上升的错误率方面面临挑战，限制了它们仅能用于小众或研究应用，因为它们尚未能够在可靠的基础上超越传统硬件。量子计算行业仍处于早期阶段，该领域的纯粹公司仍面临漫长的道路，以证明其潜力。</p>
</div><h2>Long-term promise with near-term opportunities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>长期承诺与短期机会</h2>
</div><p>Jensen Huang may have been at least half-right in downplaying the near-term significance of quantum computing, which thus far does not threaten Nvidia's semiconductor leadership. However, the story is far from over, with a breakthrough into the post-NISQ era -- defined by systems boasting hundreds of thousands of qubits and fault-tolerant error correction -- potentially arriving sooner rather than later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄仁勋在淡化量子计算的短期重要性方面可能至少是部分正确的，因为到目前为止，这并未威胁到英伟达的半导体领导地位。然而，故事远未结束，突破进入后 NISQ 时代的可能性——这一时代的特征是拥有数十万个量子比特和容错错误校正的系统——可能会比预期更早到来。</p>
</div><p>Tech giants like <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are advancing their quantum research and development, competing for a share of what experts estimate is a $170 billion market opportunity for quantum hardware and software providers projected by 2040. In February, Microsoft introduced its Majorana 1 quantum chip, featuring a novel approach to stabilizing qubits that it believes has accelerated the timeline for transformative commercial quantum applications. Even Nvidia could benefit from this shifting landscape, as its GPUs integrate with quantum chips within the same tech infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 这样的科技巨头正在推进他们的量子研究与开发，争夺专家预计到 2040 年将达到 1700 亿美元的量子硬件和软件供应商市场机会。2 月份，微软推出了其 Majorana 1 量子芯片，采用了一种新颖的方法来稳定量子比特，他们相信这加快了变革性商业量子应用的时间表。即使是英伟达也可能从这一变化的格局中受益，因为其 GPU 与量子芯片在同一技术基础设施中集成。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, near-term growth opportunities for pure play quantum computing companies, such as Rigetti Computing, are notable for their still relatively small scale. Customers as early adopters across industries are investing heavily to stay ahead, underscoring the strategic importance of quantum development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，像 Rigetti Computing 这样的纯量子计算公司在短期内的增长机会显著，尽管它们的规模仍然相对较小。各行业的早期采用者客户正在大量投资以保持领先，突显了量子开发的战略重要性。</p>
</div><h2>I'm cautiously bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我持谨慎乐观态度</h2>
</div><p>Investors have multiple options in the stock market to tap into quantum computing -- from established tech giants to emerging disruptors. Beyond the recent extreme stock market volatility and concerns regarding the strength of the U.S. economy, there is confidence that quantum computing as a secular growth driver in technology is just getting started.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者在股市中有多种选择可以进入量子计算领域——从成熟的科技巨头到新兴的颠覆者。尽管近期股市波动剧烈以及对美国经济强度的担忧，但人们对量子计算作为技术的长期增长驱动力的信心刚刚开始。</p>
</div><p>Following the deep sell-off in the broader sector, I see room to turn cautiously bullish and begin nibbling at some of these beaten-down disrupters. The companies that can manage to successfully monetize a superior platform will be well positioned to reward shareholders over the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在整个行业经历深度抛售后，我看到谨慎乐观的空间，并开始逐步投资于一些被打压的颠覆者。那些能够成功实现优越平台货币化的公司将在长期内为股东带来丰厚回报。</p>
</div>

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Admits He Was Wrong About Quantum Computing. Are Quantum Stocks Buys Right Now?

- Nvidia CEO 黄仁勋曾对量子计算表示怀疑，称其商业化仍需 15 至 20 年。  
- 近期他在会议上改变立场，承认可能误判，并宣布新投资。  
- 量子计算行业仍处于 NISQ 时代，面临技术挑战，但长期前景乐观。

Motley Fool

Nvidia CEO 黄仁勋承认他对量子计算的看法是错误的。量子股票现在是否值得购买？