<p>预测一家公司的未来五年发展并不是一门精确的科学，至少可以这么说。在关税不确定性和潜在经济放缓的背景下，这种预测的难度更是加大。</p>
<p>但是，如果你考虑购买半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -5.88%) 的股票，尽管如此，评估未来几年的一些潜在结果仍然很重要。只有通过评估一些利弊，你才能知道自己是否会在长期内感到舒适地购买和持有该公司的股票。</p>
<p>以下是未来五年 Nvidia 股票可能出现的问题以及可能的好处。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQyMzkvbnZpZGlhLWVuZGVhdm9yLWJ1aWxkaW5nLWxvZ28uanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQyMzkvbnZpZGlhLWVuZGVhdm9yLWJ1aWxkaW5nLWxvZ28uanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
<h2>风暴云层</h2>
<p>到目前为止，特朗普总统的关税政策排除了半导体，但他表示这可能不会永远如此。他几天前告诉一群记者，半导体关税 “很快就会到来”。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，特朗普过去曾对一些关税威胁有所退让，包括周三的一项重大让步。因此，无法确定半导体关税是否会真正实施。就 Nvidia 而言，它并不在内部生产处理器，而是主要依赖 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>。</p>
<p>然而，如果对半导体征收关税，这对 Nvidia 来说将是坏消息。Nvidia 将不得不吸收更高的成本，或者将成本转嫁给客户。中国的公司也大量购买 Nvidia 的处理器。在美国和中国目前处于贸易战的情况下，半导体销售可能会受到影响。</p>
<p>Nvidia 还有其他潜在问题。如果经济放缓，科技巨头可能会减少对新昂贵数据中心的支出。<strong>微软</strong> 最近显著地放弃了两个人工智能数据中心项目。</p>
<p>如果更多公司采取同样的做法，可能会减缓 Nvidia 的处理器销售，而这些销售在科技巨头投资数千亿美元建设先进的人工智能数据中心时大幅增长。</p>
<h2>一线希望</h2>
<p>我并不想淡化关税的不确定性及其对 Nvidia 业务的潜在影响，但另一方面，关税最终可能会得到解决。在接下来的五年中，很多事情都可能发生变化。</p>
<p>很难超越当前发生的事情，但值得记住的是，五年前，我们刚刚开始经历 COVID-19 大流行。从那时起，许多事情都发生了变化。</p>
<p>同样重要的是，大多数科技公司并没有表示他们想要减少对数据中心的支出。Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋认为，到 2030 年，支出可能会增加到 2 万亿美元。即使微软放弃了两个数据中心项目，也没有迹象表明整个行业的支出正在减少。<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和微软计划在今年投资 3200 亿美元用于人工智能技术和数据中心。这仅仅是今年的情况。</p>
<p>这里的要点是，这些科技公司将人工智能视为几十年来最重要的技术之一。他们没有任何理由错过这一机会或让竞争对手超越他们。人工智能竞赛可能会推动数据中心支出以及对处理器升级的需求，未来几年将导致 Nvidia 的销售增长。</p>
<h2>最可能的结果</h2>
<p>在考虑 Nvidia 时，有两件非常重要的事情需要考虑：我们仍处于人工智能繁荣的初期阶段，而 Nvidia 是人工智能领域的主导芯片设计公司。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的处理器占据了约 70% 到 95% 的人工智能处理器市场。这一领先地位不容易被超越。随着人工智能竞赛的刚刚开始，我认为假设科技公司会减少支出为时尚早。大型科技公司专注于提供最佳人工智能服务，这可能会在未来几年对 Nvidia 的处理器业务形成利好。</p>
<p>Nvidia 的股票是否会像过去五年那样获得类似 1400% 的涨幅？非常怀疑。然而，凭借其在人工智能处理器领域的领先地位，我认为它在未来五年仍有可能超越整体市场。</p>

英伟达

<p>这篇文章讨论了在关税不确定性和经济放缓的背景下，英伟达在未来五年内的潜在前景。文章强调了可能面临的风险，例如半导体关税和科技支出的减少，特别是在人工智能数据中心方面。然而，它也提到主要公司在人工智能技术上的持续投资，暗示对英伟达处理器的需求将继续存在。尽管存在担忧，英伟达在人工智能芯片设计中的主导地位可能会带来增长，尽管增长速度可能不及过去五年。总体而言，预计英伟达在未来几年将表现优于整体市场</p>

<p>Predicting where a company might be in five years isn't an exact science, to say the least. Doing so amid tariff uncertainty and a potential economic slowdown exacerbates the difficulty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测一家公司的未来五年发展并不是一门精确的科学，至少可以这么说。在关税不确定性和潜在经济放缓的背景下，这种预测的难度更是加大。</p>
</div><p>But if you're considering buying the semiconductor giant <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -5.88%), it's important to work through some of the potential outcomes over the next few years, nonetheless. Only by assessing some of the pros and cons can you know whether you'll feel comfortable buying and holding the company's stock over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但是，如果你考虑购买半导体巨头 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -5.88%) 的股票，尽管如此，评估未来几年的一些潜在结果仍然很重要。只有通过评估一些利弊，你才能知道自己是否会在长期内感到舒适地购买和持有该公司的股票。</p>
</div><p>Here's what could go wrong with Nvidia stock over the next five years and what might go right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是未来五年 Nvidia 股票可能出现的问题以及可能的好处。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQyMzkvbnZpZGlhLWVuZGVhdm9yLWJ1aWxkaW5nLWxvZ28uanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814239%2Fnvidia-endeavor-building-logo.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Nvidia。</p>
</div><h2>The storm clouds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>风暴云层</h2>
</div><p>So far, President Trump's tariffs have excluded semiconductors, but he's indicated that might not be the case forever. He told a group of reporters a few days ago that semiconductor tariffs are coming &#34;very soon.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前为止，特朗普总统的关税政策排除了半导体，但他表示这可能不会永远如此。他几天前告诉一群记者，半导体关税 “很快就会到来”。</p>
</div><p>It's worth noting that Trump has backed off some tariff threats in the past, including a big concession on Wednesday. So there's no knowing for sure if tariffs on semiconductors will ever come. For its part, Nvidia doesn't manufacture its processors in-house and instead relies mostly on <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong> for that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，特朗普过去曾对一些关税威胁有所退让，包括周三的一项重大让步。因此，无法确定半导体关税是否会真正实施。就 Nvidia 而言，它并不在内部生产处理器，而是主要依赖 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>。</p>
</div><p>However, if tariffs are applied to semiconductors, it would be bad for Nvidia. Nvidia would have to absorb higher costs from selling its chips to customers or pass on the cost. Companies in China also purchase lots of Nvidia processors. With the U.S. and China currently in a trade war, semiconductor sales there could get swept into the turmoil.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果对半导体征收关税，这对 Nvidia 来说将是坏消息。Nvidia 将不得不吸收更高的成本，或者将成本转嫁给客户。中国的公司也大量购买 Nvidia 的处理器。在美国和中国目前处于贸易战的情况下，半导体销售可能会受到影响。</p>
</div><p>There are other potential problems for Nvidia, too. If an economic slowdown occurs, tech giants might pull back on new, expensive data center spending. <strong>Microsoft</strong> notably recently backed away from two artificial intelligence data center projects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 还有其他潜在问题。如果经济放缓，科技巨头可能会减少对新昂贵数据中心的支出。<strong>微软</strong> 最近显著地放弃了两个人工智能数据中心项目。</p>
</div><p>If more companies do the same, it could slow Nvidia's processor sales, which have boomed as tech giants have invested hundreds of billions of dollars to build advanced data centers for AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果更多公司采取同样的做法，可能会减缓 Nvidia 的处理器销售，而这些销售在科技巨头投资数千亿美元建设先进的人工智能数据中心时大幅增长。</p>
</div><h2>The silver lining</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一线希望</h2>
</div><p>I don't want to downplay the tariff uncertainty or its potential implications for Nvidia's business, but the flip side is that tariffs will likely, eventually, get sorted out. <em>A lot</em> can change in the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我并不想淡化关税的不确定性及其对 Nvidia 业务的潜在影响，但另一方面，关税最终可能会得到解决。在接下来的五年中，很多事情都可能发生变化。</p>
</div><p>It's hard to see past what's currently happening, but it's worth remembering that five years in the past, we had just begun the COVID-19 pandemic. Much has changed since then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难超越当前发生的事情，但值得记住的是，五年前，我们刚刚开始经历 COVID-19 大流行。从那时起，许多事情都发生了变化。</p>
</div><p>Just as important, most tech companies have not indicated that they want to back off from their data center spending. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang thinks spending could increase to $2 trillion by 2030. Even with Microsoft backing off of two data center projects, there's no indication that a sectorwide spending pullback is occurring. <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Meta</strong>, <strong>Alphabet,</strong> and Microsoft intend to invest $320 billion this year in artificial intelligence technologies and data centers. <em>That's just this year</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同样重要的是，大多数科技公司并没有表示他们想要减少对数据中心的支出。Nvidia 首席执行官黄仁勋认为，到 2030 年，支出可能会增加到 2 万亿美元。即使微软放弃了两个数据中心项目，也没有迹象表明整个行业的支出正在减少。<strong>亚马逊</strong>、<strong>Meta</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和微软计划在今年投资 3200 亿美元用于人工智能技术和数据中心。这仅仅是今年的情况。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway here is that these tech companies view AI as one of the most consequential technologies to come along in decades. They have zero incentive to miss out on this or let their rivals outpace them. The AI race will likely fuel data center spending and the need to upgrade processors for years to come, leading to increased sales for Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这里的要点是，这些科技公司将人工智能视为几十年来最重要的技术之一。他们没有任何理由错过这一机会或让竞争对手超越他们。人工智能竞赛可能会推动数据中心支出以及对处理器升级的需求，未来几年将导致 Nvidia 的销售增长。</p>
</div><h2>The most likely outcome</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最可能的结果</h2>
</div><p>There are two very important things to consider when thinking about Nvidia right now: We're still at the beginning of the AI boom, and Nvidia is the dominant chip designer for AI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考虑 Nvidia 时，有两件非常重要的事情需要考虑：我们仍处于人工智能繁荣的初期阶段，而 Nvidia 是人工智能领域的主导芯片设计公司。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's processors account for about 70% to 95% of AI processors. That lead will not easily be overcome. And with an artificial intelligence race just beginning, I think it's premature to assume tech companies will back off spending. The focus of large tech companies on offering the best AI services will likely be a boon to Nvidia's processor business for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的处理器占据了约 70% 到 95% 的人工智能处理器市场。这一领先地位不容易被超越。随着人工智能竞赛的刚刚开始，我认为假设科技公司会减少支出为时尚早。大型科技公司专注于提供最佳人工智能服务，这可能会在未来几年对 Nvidia 的处理器业务形成利好。</p>
</div><p>Will Nvidia's stock see similar 1,400% gains as it has over the past five years? Very doubtful. However, with its leading position in AI processors I think it still has the potential to outpace the broader market over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 的股票是否会像过去五年那样获得类似 1400% 的涨幅？非常怀疑。然而，凭借其在人工智能处理器领域的领先地位，我认为它在未来五年仍有可能超越整体市场。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Be in 5 Years?

- Nvidia 面临关税不确定性和经济放缓风险，可能影响销售。  
- 尽管如此，AI 技术投资仍在增加，预计将推动 Nvidia 的处理器需求。  
- Nvidia 在 AI 处理器市场占据主导地位，未来五年有望超越市场表现。  

五年后的英伟达会处于什么位置？