<p>如今，作为市场做市商的时光令人感到恐惧。最近，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数在四月份骤降至 50.4，这是自 2022 年 6 月以来的最低水平。这一数据也较三月份的 57 点大幅下滑。令投资者担忧的是，这一数字显著低于经济学家预测的 54.5。自然，这一消息对 <strong>亚马逊公司</strong> AMZN 带来了重大且负面的影响。</p>
<p>更令人沮丧的是，消费者信心下降的背景也不容乐观。密歇根大学消费者调查主任 <strong>Joanne Hsu</strong> 表示：“消费者信心连续第四个月下降，较三月份下降了 11%。” 她补充道：“这一下降趋势与上个月一样，普遍存在于各个年龄、收入、教育、地理区域和政治派别之间。”</p>
<p>Hsu 在接受彭博电视采访时表示，恶化的经济前景在两个月内跨越了政治光谱。同时，短期和长期的通胀预期正在上升。因此，消费者信心的减弱对亚马逊的信心几乎没有任何提振作用。</p>
<p>然而，市场做市商不能仅仅为潜在的下行风险进行对冲。正如投资者在特朗普总统对部分国家的关税暂停 90 天后，周中交易会的显著反转所看到的那样，在当前政府下，任何事情都有可能发生。</p>
<p>此外，值得指出的是，截至目前，亚马逊的股票年初至今下跌约 17%。为衍生合约提供流动性的交易者还必须对可能的折扣购买进行对冲。再一次，作为市场做市商的时光令人感到恐惧。</p>
<h2>定价错误的亚马逊股票期权对投机者来说是一个亮点？</h2>
<p>正如俗话所说，一个人的垃圾是另一个人的宝藏。当谈到亚马逊期权时，市场做市商在这一股票周期中提供流动性的艰巨任务可能为等待机会的投机者打开了大门。而且，可能会有一个错误在风险承担者的 favor。</p>
<p>在正常情况下，悲观的交易者可能会购买一种称为看跌价差的多腿期权策略。这些垂直价差之所以被称为垂直，是因为基础的多头和空头腿之间的行权价差是垂直堆叠的（因此具有相同的到期日）——这些交易是净借记交易。简单来说，交易者支付借记以投机某一特定事件的发生（即目标股票将下跌）。</p>
<p>在垂直价差的买方另一端，当然是价差的卖方。卖出信用价差代表一种净信用交易。具体而言，该头寸从现金流入头寸开始。卖方收到借记买方支付的溢价，赌注是时间会在借记交易变得盈利之前耗尽。</p>
<p>对于卖方而言，收到的溢价——即现金流入的金额——可以视为安全边际或 “信用边际”。本质上，这是交易可以逆向移动而仍然盈利的金额。然而，一旦边际被超出，借记买方就处于盈利状态。在这种情况下，边际的上升赤字反映了信用价差爆炸的责任。</p>
<p>使某些亚马逊股票看跌价差在此时如此引人注目的原因在于上述信用边际处于借记一侧；也就是说，时间衰减（theta）有利于买方。当风险建模在试图适应所有情况时失控时，可能会出现不寻常的定价动态。这可能就是目前亚马逊看跌期权所发生的情况。</p>
<h2>获取免费赔率</h2>
<p>希望从价格建模混乱中获利的投机者可能会考虑在 4 月 17 日到期的看跌价差，短腿行权价为 185 美元。具体而言，190/185 的看跌价差对投机者来说看起来很有吸引力。这笔交易涉及购买 190 美元的看跌期权（在撰写时的要价为 935 美元）并同时出售 185 美元的看跌期权（在出价为 625 美元）。</p>
<p>因此，短期看跌期权的收益部分抵消了长期看跌期权的借记，导致净借记为 310 美元。如果亚马逊在到期时跌至或低于 185 美元的短行权价，交易者将获得最高奖励 190 美元，代表超过 61% 的回报。</p>
<p>亚马逊在公开市场上的股票交易价格低于短行权目标。换句话说，这笔交易在纸面上已经对借记买方有利可图。一旦时间过去，如果情况保持不变，风险承担者就会获胜。</p>
<p>使亚马逊在定价失配方面如此引人注目的原因是其相对较低的贝塔值为 1.39。这不是一只在统计上会在任何方向上反应过于强烈的证券。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>作者提供的图片</em></p>
<p>谈到统计数据，亚马逊在任何给定的一周内上涨的机会约为 53% 到 54%。这对看涨者来说并没有太大的优势。然而，市场做市商可能正在对亚马逊的动量趋势进行对冲，亚马逊可能正试图从 170 美元的低点反弹。话虽如此，考虑到超过 10% 的单周回报极少，这一动量论点也是风险重重，导致数据失真。</p>
<p>需要记住的是，正如上述看跌价差所示，赌注并不一定是股票会下跌（因为在纸面上它已经低于看跌者的盈利阈值）。</p>
<p>而是，赌注在于亚马逊不会在此处大幅上涨。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，上述看跌价差似乎在借记买方的 favor 下定价错误。</p>
<p><strong>现在阅读：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>通胀可能正在缓解，但科技前景仍然动荡，分析师警告</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>

亚马逊

<p>最近，密歇根大学消费者信心指数降至 50.4，为亚马逊的看跌价差交易者创造了重大机会。由于亚马逊的股票年初至今下跌了 17%，市场做市商在定价期权时面临挑战。看跌价差策略，特别是 190/185 的价差，为交易者提供了一个引人注目的机会，如果亚马逊的股票在到期时跌破 185 美元，潜在的收益超过 61%。这一情况源于消费者信心恶化和通胀预期上升所导致的异常定价动态</p>

<p>It's a terrifying time to be a market maker these days. Recently, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for April plunged to 50.4, its lowest reading since June 2022. It also represents a steep drop from March's reading of 57 points. Worrying investors is that the figure missed economists' forecast of 54.5 by a significant margin. Naturally, this news item carries significant — and negative — implications for <strong>Amazon.com Inc</strong> AMZN.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，作为市场做市商的时光令人感到恐惧。最近，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数在四月份骤降至 50.4，这是自 2022 年 6 月以来的最低水平。这一数据也较三月份的 57 点大幅下滑。令投资者担忧的是，这一数字显著低于经济学家预测的 54.5。自然，这一消息对 <strong>亚马逊公司</strong> AMZN 带来了重大且负面的影响。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the dour environment is the discouraging context behind the velocity decline. “Consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month, plunging 11% from March,” said <strong>Joanne Hsu</strong>, director of the Survey of Consumers at the University of Michigan. “This decline was, like last month’s, pervasive and unanimous across age, income, education, geographic region and political affiliation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人沮丧的是，消费者信心下降的背景也不容乐观。密歇根大学消费者调查主任 <strong>Joanne Hsu</strong> 表示：“消费者信心连续第四个月下降，较三月份下降了 11%。” 她补充道：“这一下降趋势与上个月一样，普遍存在于各个年龄、收入、教育、地理区域和政治派别之间。”</p>
</div><p>Hsu told Bloomberg TV that the deteriorating economic outlook cut across the political spectrum for two months. At the same time, inflation expectations are rising, for both the short and long term. Subsequently, the projection of fading consumer sentiment does little to bolster confidence in Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Hsu 在接受彭博电视采访时表示，恶化的经济前景在两个月内跨越了政治光谱。同时，短期和长期的通胀预期正在上升。因此，消费者信心的减弱对亚马逊的信心几乎没有任何提振作用。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, market makers cannot just hedge for a potential downturn. As investors saw during the midweek session's remarkable turnaround following President Donald Trump's 90-day pause on tariffs for select countries, anything can happen under the current administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，市场做市商不能仅仅为潜在的下行风险进行对冲。正如投资者在特朗普总统对部分国家的关税暂停 90 天后，周中交易会的显著反转所看到的那样，在当前政府下，任何事情都有可能发生。</p>
</div><p>Plus, it's worth pointing out that, as of this writing, Amazon’s stock is down about 17% on a year-to-date basis. Those providing liquidity for derivative contracts must also hedge for the possibility of discount buying. Again, it's a terrifying time to be a market maker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，值得指出的是，截至目前，亚马逊的股票年初至今下跌约 17%。为衍生合约提供流动性的交易者还必须对可能的折扣购买进行对冲。再一次，作为市场做市商的时光令人感到恐惧。</p>
</div><h2>Mispriced Amazon Stock Options A Bright Spot For Speculators?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定价错误的亚马逊股票期权对投机者来说是一个亮点？</h2>
</div><p>As the saying goes, one person's trash is another person's treasure. When it comes to Amazon options, the market makers' dreadful duties to provide liquidity in this equities cycle can open doors for opportunistic speculators waiting to pounce on a mistake. And there just might be one in favor of the risk-taker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如俗话所说，一个人的垃圾是另一个人的宝藏。当谈到亚马逊期权时，市场做市商在这一股票周期中提供流动性的艰巨任务可能为等待机会的投机者打开了大门。而且，可能会有一个错误在风险承担者的 favor。</p>
</div><p>Under ordinary circumstances, pessimistic traders might buy a multi-leg options strategy known as the bear put spread. These vertical spreads — so called because the strike-price difference between the underlying long and short legs is stacked vertically (and thus for the same expiration date) — are net debit-based transactions. Simply stated, the trader pays a debit to speculate that a specific event will materialize (i.e. the target stock will fall).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情况下，悲观的交易者可能会购买一种称为看跌价差的多腿期权策略。这些垂直价差之所以被称为垂直，是因为基础的多头和空头腿之间的行权价差是垂直堆叠的（因此具有相同的到期日）——这些交易是净借记交易。简单来说，交易者支付借记以投机某一特定事件的发生（即目标股票将下跌）。</p>
</div><p>On the other end of a buyer of a vertical spread is, of course, the spread's seller. Selling a credit spread represents a net credit-based transaction. Specifically, the position starts from a cash influx position. The seller receives the premium that the debit buyer pays, gambling that the clock will run out on the buyer before the debit trade becomes profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在垂直价差的买方另一端，当然是价差的卖方。卖出信用价差代表一种净信用交易。具体而言，该头寸从现金流入头寸开始。卖方收到借记买方支付的溢价，赌注是时间会在借记交易变得盈利之前耗尽。</p>
</div><p>For the seller, the premium received — that is, the amount of the cash influx — can be viewed as the safety margin or &#34;credit margin.&#34; Essentially, it's the amount that the trade can move against the seller and still be profitable. Once the margin is exceeded, though, the debit buyer is now in the money. Under this scenario, the rising deficit to the margin reflects the liability of a blown-up credit spread.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于卖方而言，收到的溢价——即现金流入的金额——可以视为安全边际或 “信用边际”。本质上，这是交易可以逆向移动而仍然盈利的金额。然而，一旦边际被超出，借记买方就处于盈利状态。在这种情况下，边际的上升赤字反映了信用价差爆炸的责任。</p>
</div><p>What makes certain Amazon stock put spreads so compelling at this hour is that the aforementioned credit margin is on the debit side; that is, time decay (theta) favors the buyer. When risk modeling goes haywire in an attempt to accommodate all circumstances, unusual pricing dynamics may materialize. This may be what's happening right now with Amazon put options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使某些亚马逊股票看跌价差在此时如此引人注目的原因在于上述信用边际处于借记一侧；也就是说，时间衰减（theta）有利于买方。当风险建模在试图适应所有情况时失控时，可能会出现不寻常的定价动态。这可能就是目前亚马逊看跌期权所发生的情况。</p>
</div><h2>Getting Spotted Free Odds</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>获取免费赔率</h2>
</div><p>Speculators looking to profit from the price modeling chaos may consider the bear put spreads expiring April 17 with a short leg strike price of $185. Specifically, the 190/185 bear spread looks enticing for speculators. This transaction involves buying the $190 put (at a time-of-writing ask of $935) and simultaneously selling the $185 put (at a bid of $625).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希望从价格建模混乱中获利的投机者可能会考虑在 4 月 17 日到期的看跌价差，短腿行权价为 185 美元。具体而言，190/185 的看跌价差对投机者来说看起来很有吸引力。这笔交易涉及购买 190 美元的看跌期权（在撰写时的要价为 935 美元）并同时出售 185 美元的看跌期权（在出价为 625 美元）。</p>
</div><p>Subsequently, the proceeds from the short put partially offset the debit paid for the long put, resulting in a net debit paid of $310. Should Amazon fall to or below the short strike price of $185 at expiration, the trader collects the maximum reward of $190, representing a payout of over 61%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，短期看跌期权的收益部分抵消了长期看跌期权的借记，导致净借记为 310 美元。如果亚马逊在到期时跌至或低于 185 美元的短行权价，交易者将获得最高奖励 190 美元，代表超过 61% 的回报。</p>
</div><p>Amazon shares in the open market were trading at a lower price than the short strike target. In other words, the trade is already in the money for the debit buyer on paper. Once time passes and if the situation stays as is, the risk taker wins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊在公开市场上的股票交易价格低于短行权目标。换句话说，这笔交易在纸面上已经对借记买方有利可图。一旦时间过去，如果情况保持不变，风险承担者就会获胜。</p>
</div><p>What makes Amazon so compelling as a play on pricing mismatches is the relatively low beta of 1.39. This is not a security that will statistically react too strongly in either direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使亚马逊在定价失配方面如此引人注目的原因是其相对较低的贝塔值为 1.39。这不是一只在统计上会在任何方向上反应过于强烈的证券。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/11145309/AMZN-stock-probability-gambit-04112025-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image by author</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>作者提供的图片</em></p>
</div><p>Speaking of statistics, the chances that on any given week Amazon would rise is around 53% to 54%. That’s not much of an advantage for bulls. However, market makers could be hedging for the momentum-riding tendencies of Amazon, which could be attempting to bounce back from the $170 lows. Then again, the momentum argument is also risky considering how few one-week returns exceeding 10% there have been, resulting in data distortion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>谈到统计数据，亚马逊在任何给定的一周内上涨的机会约为 53% 到 54%。这对看涨者来说并没有太大的优势。然而，市场做市商可能正在对亚马逊的动量趋势进行对冲，亚马逊可能正试图从 170 美元的低点反弹。话虽如此，考虑到超过 10% 的单周回报极少，这一动量论点也是风险重重，导致数据失真。</p>
</div><p>The thing to remember is that as the above bear put spread stands, the wager isn't necessarily that the stock will fall (because it's already below the profitability threshold for bears on paper).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要记住的是，正如上述看跌价差所示，赌注并不一定是股票会下跌（因为在纸面上它已经低于看跌者的盈利阈值）。</p>
</div><p>Rather, it's that Amazon won't materially rise from here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而是，赌注在于亚马逊不会在此处大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>In that context, the above put spread appears mispriced in favor of the debit buyer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，上述看跌价差似乎在借记买方的 favor 下定价错误。</p>
</div><p><strong>Now Read:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>现在阅读：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Inflation Might Be Easing But Tech Outlook Still Choppy, Analysts Warn</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>通胀可能正在缓解，但科技前景仍然动荡，分析师警告</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

Options Corner: Wall Street's Risk Modeling Nightmare Creates Massive Opportunities In Amazon Put Spreads

- 密 ichigan 大学消费者信心指数降至 50.4，为 2022 年 6 月以来最低。  
- 该指数较 3 月的 57 点大幅下滑，未达经济学家预期 54.5。  
- 亚马逊股票年初至今下跌约 17%，市场情绪低迷。  

期权角：华尔街的风险建模噩梦在亚马逊看跌期权价差中带来了巨大的机会