<p>关税正在扰动市场，并导致波动性激增。以科技和消费品为主的增长型行业尤其脆弱，因为它们具有周期性和全球曝光度。</p>
<p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 3.95%) 和 <strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.07%) 在撰写本文时年初至今已下跌超过 20%，显著落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>，这两者也大幅下跌。以下是这两只股票下跌的原因，以及现在是否值得购买。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ1MDMvYS1wZXJzb24tcHV0cy10aGVpci1oYW5kLW9uLXRoZWlyLWZvcmVoZWFkLXdoaWxlLXNpdHRpbmctZG93bi1hbmQtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS1pbi1hLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1tYW5uZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ1MDMvYS1wZXJzb24tcHV0cy10aGVpci1oYW5kLW9uLXRoZWlyLWZvcmVoZWFkLXdoaWxlLXNpdHRpbmctZG93bi1hbmQtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS1pbi1hLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1tYW5uZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>与中国的贸易战对苹果来说是坏消息</h2>
<p>苹果对关税的暴露无可否认，尤其是在中国。中国是苹果的关键市场——无论是从制造还是销售的角度来看。</p>
<p>在 4 月 9 日，苹果股票因对除中国以外所有国家的互惠关税暂停 90 天的反应而飙升，但在次日因关税率将提高至惊人的 145% 的消息而下跌了 4%。如果这一关税率持续存在，将严重打击苹果的短期盈利能力。这就是为什么该股票年初至今下跌如此之多的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>现在购买苹果股票意味着相信两件事情会发生：</p>
<ol>
<li>苹果能够调整其供应链以避免关税的冲击，或者关税将会减轻。</li>
<li>苹果能够将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。</li>
</ol>
<p>4 月 10 日，有报道称苹果正在将 iPhone 从印度空运到美国，以规避对中国的关税。如果苹果认为中国可能是一个长期风险，它可能会努力将制造永久性地转移出中国，转向印度和东南亚的其他合作伙伴。然而，投资者可能希望等到苹果在 5 月 1 日的即将召开的财报电话会议上，进一步了解公司如何计划减少关税影响。</p>
<p>至于苹果的定价能力，近年来 iPhone 的增长已经放缓。但公司通过扩大其高利润的服务部门和回购股票来弥补部分放缓。娱乐服务包括 Apple TV+、Apple Music、Apple Podcasts、Apple Books 等。苹果还有一系列不断增长的金融服务，从 Apple Pay 到 Apple Card 和 Apple Cash。</p>
<p>苹果在人工智能领域尚未取得投资者所期待的重大突破，因此人们担心其定价能力不如以往。然而，服务增强了苹果生态系统的广度。</p>
<p>总的来说，如果你相信苹果能够应对供应链挑战并保持其定价能力，那么苹果是一个值得购买的优质股票。但在投资者对苹果应对关税的反应有更多了解之前，采取观望态度也是合理的，尤其是在几周后的财报电话会议上。</p>
<h2>耐克在关税动荡之前就已经在挣扎</h2>
<p>考虑到耐克年初至今的损失更加令人担忧，因为它去年已经是 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 中表现最差的成分股之一。耐克的股价已经下跌到十年来的最低水平。</p>
<p>耐克问题的简要版本是，它过度投资于将业务从批发合作伙伴转向数字化，这在疫情期间有效，但在近年来证明是一个代价高昂的错误，因为直接面向消费者的部分表现不如批发和耐克的实体店。除了管理失误，耐克还受到来自 <strong>阿迪达斯</strong> 和新兴竞争者如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 旗下的 Hoka 的强大竞争。</p>
<p>关税在耐克的投资论点中又添了一层复杂性，此时公司已经在为过去的错误而苦苦挣扎。报告显示，耐克 95% 的鞋子是在中国、越南和印度尼西亚生产的。中国也是耐克销售的关键市场。</p>
<p>截至 2 月 28 日的九个月内，大中华区的销售额为 51.1 亿美元，而北美为 148.7 亿美元，欧洲、中东和非洲为 92.6 亿美元。在此期间，耐克在大中华区销售的鞋类、服装和设备的数量超过了亚太地区和拉丁美洲的总和——大中华区在这九个月内占耐克品牌总收入的 15.1%。</p>
<p>与苹果类似，现在购买耐克股票是对其品牌实力的押注，认为它能够扭转业务、应对竞争并调整其供应链。然而，考虑到耐克在贸易紧张局势开始之前就已经在进行业务转型，耐克的脆弱性可能比苹果更大。</p>
<p>耐克已经从一只成长股转变为一只支付股息的价值股。尽管面临困境，公司仍继续回购股票，并且已经连续 23 年提高股息。股价的下跌使耐克的收益率上升至 10 年来的最高水平 2.8%，市盈率降至 10 年来的最低水平，仅为 18。然而，如果关税持续存在，耐克的盈利几乎可以肯定会在短期内下降，从而使其估值变得不那么吸引人。</p>
<h2>两只值得耐心投资者关注的股票</h2>
<p>苹果和耐克可能在完全不同的行业中运营，但这两家公司的购买理由是相似的。两者都面临严重的关税风险，近年来都没有以惊人的速度增长盈利。然而，如果它们能够度过这一艰难时期，这两大品牌的估值在事后看来可能会显得便宜。</p>
<p>苹果作为更安全的全方位投资脱颖而出，而耐克则具有更高的风险和潜在回报，如果它能够扭转业务并应对关税的话。如果你有长期投资的视角，现在购买这两只股票都是值得的。然而，考虑到我们正航行在未知的水域，合理的做法是将这两只股票列入观察名单，等待即将到来的财报电话会议，以便更清楚地了解它们的战略。</p>

苹果

耐克

<p>对关税敏感的股票，如苹果和耐克，正面临显著下跌，两者年初至今均下跌超过 20%。苹果在中国的关税风险对其盈利能力构成威胁，这使得其在财报电话会议前的前景变得谨慎。耐克在向数字销售转型和竞争中已经面临困难，关税的影响进一步加剧，因为其在中国的制造依赖程度很高。投资者正在权衡两家公司运营中持续挑战与潜在复苏的可能性</p>

<p>Tariffs are rattling markets and leading to spikes in volatility. Growth-focused sectors like technology and consumer discretionary are particularly vulnerable given their cyclicality and global exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税正在扰动市场，并导致波动性激增。以科技和消费品为主的增长型行业尤其脆弱，因为它们具有周期性和全球曝光度。</p>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 3.95%) and <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 0.07%) are down over 20% year to date at the time of this writing, significantly underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>, which are also down significantly. Here's why both stocks are selling off and whether they are worth buying now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL 3.95%) 和 <strong>耐克</strong>(NKE 0.07%) 在撰写本文时年初至今已下跌超过 20%，显著落后于 <strong>标准普尔 500</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong>，这两者也大幅下跌。以下是这两只股票下跌的原因，以及现在是否值得购买。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ1MDMvYS1wZXJzb24tcHV0cy10aGVpci1oYW5kLW9uLXRoZWlyLWZvcmVoZWFkLXdoaWxlLXNpdHRpbmctZG93bi1hbmQtbG9va2luZy1hdC1hLW1vYmlsZS1waG9uZS1pbi1hLWNvbmNlcm5lZC1tYW5uZXIuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814503%2Fa-person-puts-their-hand-on-their-forehead-while-sitting-down-and-looking-at-a-mobile-phone-in-a-concerned-manner.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A trade war with China is bad news for Apple</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>与中国的贸易战对苹果来说是坏消息</h2>
</div><p>There's no sugarcoating Apple's exposure to tariffs, especially in China. China is a key market for Apple -- both from a manufacturing and a sales perspective.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果对关税的暴露无可否认，尤其是在中国。中国是苹果的关键市场——无论是从制造还是销售的角度来看。</p>
</div><p>After Apple stock surged on April 9 in response to a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs to all countries except China, it sank 4% the following day on news that the tariff rate on Chinese goods would be raised to a staggering 145%. If it sticks, that steep of a tariff rate would crush Apple's near-term profitability. That's why the stock is down so much year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月 9 日，苹果股票因对除中国以外所有国家的互惠关税暂停 90 天的反应而飙升，但在次日因关税率将提高至惊人的 145% 的消息而下跌了 4%。如果这一关税率持续存在，将严重打击苹果的短期盈利能力。这就是为什么该股票年初至今下跌如此之多的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0950bee396638fd8e787b271e9015b38.png"/></p>
<p>^SPX data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>^SPX 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Buying Apple stock now is a belief that two things will happen:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在购买苹果股票意味着相信两件事情会发生：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Apple will be able to adjust its supply chain to avoid the brunt of tariffs, or tariffs will ease.</li>
<li>Apple will be able to pass along higher costs to consumers.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>苹果能够调整其供应链以避免关税的冲击，或者关税将会减轻。</li>
<li>苹果能够将更高的成本转嫁给消费者。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>On April 10, reports indicated that Apple was flying iPhones from India to the U.S. to circumnavigate tariffs on China. If Apple feels China could be a longer-term risk, it could work to permanently shift manufacturing out of China toward India and other partners in Southeast Asia. However, investors may want to wait for Apple's upcoming earnings call on May 1 to better understand how the company plans to reduce the tariff impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>4 月 10 日，有报道称苹果正在将 iPhone 从印度空运到美国，以规避对中国的关税。如果苹果认为中国可能是一个长期风险，它可能会努力将制造永久性地转移出中国，转向印度和东南亚的其他合作伙伴。然而，投资者可能希望等到苹果在 5 月 1 日的即将召开的财报电话会议上，进一步了解公司如何计划减少关税影响。</p>
</div><p>As for Apple's pricing power, iPhone growth has slowed in recent years. But the company has made up for some of that slowdown by growing its high-margin services segment and repurchasing stock to grow earnings per share. Entertainment services include Apple TV+, Apple Music, Apple Podcasts, Apple Books, and more. Apple also has a growing list of financial services, from Apple Pay to Apple Card and Apple Cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于苹果的定价能力，近年来 iPhone 的增长已经放缓。但公司通过扩大其高利润的服务部门和回购股票来弥补部分放缓。娱乐服务包括 Apple TV+、Apple Music、Apple Podcasts、Apple Books 等。苹果还有一系列不断增长的金融服务，从 Apple Pay 到 Apple Card 和 Apple Cash。</p>
</div><p>Apple has yet to make as big a splash in artificial intelligence as some investors may have hoped for, so there are fears that it lacks the pricing power it once had. However, services have enhanced the breadth of the Apple ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在人工智能领域尚未取得投资者所期待的重大突破，因此人们担心其定价能力不如以往。然而，服务增强了苹果生态系统的广度。</p>
</div><p>All told, Apple stands out as a solid buy if you believe in its ability to navigate supply chain challenges and its pricing power. But it's also reasonable to take a wait-and-see approach until investors get more clarity on Apple's response to tariffs from the earnings call in a few weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总的来说，如果你相信苹果能够应对供应链挑战并保持其定价能力，那么苹果是一个值得购买的优质股票。但在投资者对苹果应对关税的反应有更多了解之前，采取观望态度也是合理的，尤其是在几周后的财报电话会议上。</p>
</div><h2>Nike was already struggling to gain its footing before the onset of tariff turmoil</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>耐克在关税动荡之前就已经在挣扎</h2>
</div><p>Nike's year-to-date losses are even more alarming, considering it was already one of the worst-performing components of the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> last year. Nike has sold off so much that it is now hovering around its lowest level in a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到耐克年初至今的损失更加令人担忧，因为它去年已经是 <strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 中表现最差的成分股之一。耐克的股价已经下跌到十年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>The abridged version of Nike's problems is that it overly invested in switching the business away from wholesale partnerships to digital, which worked during the pandemic but proved a costly error in recent years, as the direct-to-consumer segment has been underperforming wholesale and Nike's brick-and-mortar stores. In addition to management blunders, Nike has been hit hard by formidable competition from <strong>Adidas</strong> and newer players like <strong>On Holding</strong> and <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong>-owned Hoka.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克问题的简要版本是，它过度投资于将业务从批发合作伙伴转向数字化，这在疫情期间有效，但在近年来证明是一个代价高昂的错误，因为直接面向消费者的部分表现不如批发和耐克的实体店。除了管理失误，耐克还受到来自 <strong>阿迪达斯</strong> 和新兴竞争者如 <strong>On Holding</strong> 和 <strong>Deckers Outdoor</strong> 旗下的 Hoka 的强大竞争。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs throw yet another wrench in the Nike investment thesis at a time when the company was already licking its wounds from past mistakes. Reports indicate that Nike makes 95% of its shoes in China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. China is a key market for Nike's sales as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税在耐克的投资论点中又添了一层复杂性，此时公司已经在为过去的错误而苦苦挣扎。报告显示，耐克 95% 的鞋子是在中国、越南和印度尼西亚生产的。中国也是耐克销售的关键市场。</p>
</div><p>For the nine months ended Feb. 28, Greater China sales were $5.11 billion compared to $14.87 billion in North America and $9.26 billion in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. During that period, Nike sold more footwear, apparel, and equipment in Greater China than the rest of Asia Pacific and Latin America combined -- with Greater China making up a significant 15.1% of total Nike Brand revenue during that nine-month period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2 月 28 日的九个月内，大中华区的销售额为 51.1 亿美元，而北美为 148.7 亿美元，欧洲、中东和非洲为 92.6 亿美元。在此期间，耐克在大中华区销售的鞋类、服装和设备的数量超过了亚太地区和拉丁美洲的总和——大中华区在这九个月内占耐克品牌总收入的 15.1%。</p>
</div><p>Like Apple, buying Nike stock now is a bet on the power of its brand, that it can turn the business around, handle competition, and pivot its supply chain. However, Nike is arguably more vulnerable than Apple, considering the business was already in the middle of a turnaround before the onset of trade tensions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与苹果类似，现在购买耐克股票是对其品牌实力的押注，认为它能够扭转业务、应对竞争并调整其供应链。然而，考虑到耐克在贸易紧张局势开始之前就已经在进行业务转型，耐克的脆弱性可能比苹果更大。</p>
</div><p>Nike has gone from a growth stock to a dividend-paying value stock. Despite its struggles, the company has continued to buy back stock and has 23 consecutive years of dividend raises. The sell-off in the stock price has pushed Nike's yield up to a 10-year high of 2.8% and its price-to-earnings ratio down to a 10-year low of just 18. Although if tariffs stick around, Nike's earnings will almost certainly fall in the near term -- making its valuation less appealing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克已经从一只成长股转变为一只支付股息的价值股。尽管面临困境，公司仍继续回购股票，并且已经连续 23 年提高股息。股价的下跌使耐克的收益率上升至 10 年来的最高水平 2.8%，市盈率降至 10 年来的最低水平，仅为 18。然而，如果关税持续存在，耐克的盈利几乎可以肯定会在短期内下降，从而使其估值变得不那么吸引人。</p>
</div><h2>Two watch list-worthy stocks for patient investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>两只值得耐心投资者关注的股票</h2>
</div><p>Apple and Nike may operate in entirely different industries, but the buy case for both companies is similar. Both face serious tariff risks, and neither company has been growing earnings at breakneck rates in recent years. However, these are two top brands whose valuations could look cheap in hindsight if they can endure this challenging period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果和耐克可能在完全不同的行业中运营，但这两家公司的购买理由是相似的。两者都面临严重的关税风险，近年来都没有以惊人的速度增长盈利。然而，如果它们能够度过这一艰难时期，这两大品牌的估值在事后看来可能会显得便宜。</p>
</div><p>Apple stands out as the safer all-around play, whereas Nike has a higher risk and potential reward if it can turn the business around and navigate tariffs. Both stocks could be worth buying now if you have a long-term horizon. However, it's also reasonable to keep both stocks on a watch list and wait for upcoming earnings calls for more clarity on their strategies, given we are sailing through uncharted waters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果作为更安全的全方位投资脱颖而出，而耐克则具有更高的风险和潜在回报，如果它能够扭转业务并应对关税的话。如果你有长期投资的视角，现在购买这两只股票都是值得的。然而，考虑到我们正航行在未知的水域，合理的做法是将这两只股票列入观察名单，等待即将到来的财报电话会议，以便更清楚地了解它们的战略。</p>
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Tariff-Sensitive Stocks Apple and Nike Are Getting Clobbered. Time to Buy?

- 关税导致市场波动，科技和消费品行业受影响严重。  
- 苹果和耐克股价年初至今均下跌超过 20%。  
- 投资者需关注即将发布的财报以评估公司应对关税的策略。

关税敏感的股票苹果和耐克正在遭受重创。现在是买入的好时机吗？