<p>美元经历了多年来最快的下跌，指数对一篮子全球货币下跌了 10%——这是自 2022 年以来最大的跌幅。</p>
<p>如果你担心美元持续走弱，有多种可行的对冲方式，包括外币 ETF，我们稍后会讨论。</p>
<p>但首先，让我们花点时间探讨一下近期走弱的原因。</p>
<p>下图是美元指数，它衡量美元对六种全球货币（欧元、瑞士法郎、日本日元、加拿大元、英镑和瑞典克朗）的强度。Stockcharts.com 使用$USD 作为该指数，但你也可以在其他地方找到 DXY。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239"/></p>
<p>正如你所看到的，美元从年初的 110 跌至今天略低于 100。这是自 2022 年以来的最大跌幅，美元交易接近近期低点。</p>
<p>需要注意的是，美元仍在自 2022 年以来的多年来交易区间内。</p>
<p>尽管下跌速度很快，但我们并不是在谈论货币崩溃。</p>
<p>然而，我们看到的是美元可能继续走低的风险在增加。</p>
<p>[text_ad]</p>
<p>新实施的关税制度，正如你所知，已经让股市感到恐慌，并引发了修正/熊市。但它也导致债券抛售，因为 10 年期国债收益率自 4 月初以来飙升了 50 个基点。</p>
<p>由于国债收益率和价格呈反向移动，这一收益率飙升意味着投资者正在积极抛售国债。</p>
<p>通常，当股票下跌时，国债会上涨，因为投资者在股市波动期间竞相购买债券以寻求安全。</p>
<p>在这种情况下，两种资产同时下跌，促使一些分析师认为市场上存在持续的 “卖出美国” 主题。</p>
<p>不难理解原因，越来越混乱的经济政策可能促使全球各国政府和投资者减少与美国进行的商业（和投资）活动。</p>
<p>就像市场本身一样，目前尚不清楚这一趋势是否已经达到暂时底部（国债价格在本周初略有上涨，尽管美元略显疲软）或只是暂时喘息。</p>
<p>如果你担心是后者，有几种方法可以对冲美元走弱。黄金最近表现特别强劲，尤其是在可能降息的情况下，预计将继续保持强势。</p>
<p>你还可以考虑直接接触外币，目前有两只外币 ETF 看起来特别有吸引力。</p>
<h2><strong>2 只外币 ETF 以对冲美元走弱</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)</strong> 和 <strong>Euro Trust (FXE)</strong> 今年表现良好，FXF 上涨了 12%，FXE 上涨了 10.7%。</p>
<p>_Cabot Explorer_的 Carl Delfeld 为投资瑞士提供了有力的理由，瑞士长期以来对投资者具有避风港的吸引力。</p>
<p>至于欧元，欧元区在实施关税后趋向于一致，最近展现出更为统一的立场。在不确定时期，这种稳定性是一个显著的价值增益。</p>
<p>这两只 ETF 的回报在很大程度上受到美元贬值的限制，尽管 FXE 在过去 12 个月支付了适度的股息（1.8%），因此这里的潜力完全在于对冲。</p>
<p>也就是说，如果关税的推出是未来的一个迹象，并且对美国资产的厌恶情绪在增加，使用货币 ETF 作为部分对冲可能是明智之举，尤其是如果你考虑在海外花费一些时间。</p>
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欧元 做多 - CurrencyShares

瑞士法郎 做多 - CurrencyShares

<p>美元经历了显著下跌，兑一篮子全球货币下跌了 10%，这是自 2022 年以来的最大跌幅。这一下降引发了人们对美元未来强度的担忧。为了对冲美元走弱的风险，投资者可以考虑外币 ETF，特别是 Invesco CurrencyShares 瑞士法郎信托（FXF）和欧元信托（FXE），这两者今年表现强劲。FXF 上涨了 12%，而 FXE 上涨了 10.7%。这些 ETF 在美元持续承压的情况下提供了潜在的对冲机会</p>

<p>The U.S. dollar has suffered its fastest drop in years, with the index shedding 10% against a basket of global currencies—the largest decline since 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元经历了多年来最快的下跌，指数对一篮子全球货币下跌了 10%——这是自 2022 年以来最大的跌幅。</p>
</div><p>If you’re concerned about continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, there are a number of viable hedges, including foreign currency ETFs, which we’ll get to in a minute.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你担心美元持续走弱，有多种可行的对冲方式，包括外币 ETF，我们稍后会讨论。</p>
</div><p>But first, let’s take a moment to explore what’s behind the recent weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但首先，让我们花点时间探讨一下近期走弱的原因。</p>
</div><p>The chart below is the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six global currencies (the euro, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, and the Swedish krona). Stockcharts.com uses $USD for the index, but you’ll find it elsewhere under DXY.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下图是美元指数，它衡量美元对六种全球货币（欧元、瑞士法郎、日本日元、加拿大元、英镑和瑞典克朗）的强度。Stockcharts.com 使用$USD 作为该指数，但你也可以在其他地方找到 DXY。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239!/quality/90//query-dXJsPWh0dHBzOi8vazItcHJvZC1jYWJvdC5zMy51cy1lYXN0LTEuYW1hem9uYXdzLmNvbS9icmlnaHRzcG90LzE5L2Q4LzIxM2VmZWJjNGQ3Y2I3MjRmNDZlZWFjZTc4NzQvdXNkLTQtMTQtMjUucG5n" alt="" original-src="https://cabot.brightspotgocdn.com/dims4/default/304e0e5/2147483647/strip/true/crop/990x511+0+0/resize/464x239!/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fk2-prod-cabot.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fbrightspot%2F19%2Fd8%2F213efebc4d7cb724f46eeace7874%2Fusd-4-14-25.png"/></p>
<p>As you can see, it’s declined from a value of 110 at the beginning of the year to just below 100 today. That’s the steepest decline since 2022, and the dollar is trading near its recent low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，美元从年初的 110 跌至今天略低于 100。这是自 2022 年以来的最大跌幅，美元交易接近近期低点。</p>
</div><p>It should be noted that the dollar is still within a multi-year trading range dating back to 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要注意的是，美元仍在自 2022 年以来的多年来交易区间内。</p>
</div><p>Despite the speed of the decline, we’re not exactly talking about a currency collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管下跌速度很快，但我们并不是在谈论货币崩溃。</p>
</div><p>What we are seeing, however, is a growing risk that the dollar could continue trending lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我们看到的是美元可能继续走低的风险在增加。</p>
</div><p>[text_ad]</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>[text_ad]</p>
</div><p>The freshly implemented tariff regime has, as you’re no doubt aware, spooked equity markets and triggered a correction/bear market. But it’s also triggered selling in bonds as the yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked by 50 basis points since the beginning of April.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新实施的关税制度，正如你所知，已经让股市感到恐慌，并引发了修正/熊市。但它也导致债券抛售，因为 10 年期国债收益率自 4 月初以来飙升了 50 个基点。</p>
</div><p>Because Treasury yields and prices move in the opposite direction, that yield spike means that investors have been aggressively selling Treasurys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于国债收益率和价格呈反向移动，这一收益率飙升意味着投资者正在积极抛售国债。</p>
</div><p>Typically, when stocks sell off, Treasurys rise as investors bid up bonds for safety during periods of stock market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，当股票下跌时，国债会上涨，因为投资者在股市波动期间竞相购买债券以寻求安全。</p>
</div><p>In this case, both assets fell simultaneously, prompting some analysts to posit that there is an ongoing “sell America” theme in the markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，两种资产同时下跌，促使一些分析师认为市场上存在持续的 “卖出美国” 主题。</p>
</div><p>It’s not hard to understand why, as an increasingly chaotic economic policy may be prompting governments and investors around the world to scale back the amount of business (and investing) that they’re interested in doing with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不难理解原因，越来越混乱的经济政策可能促使全球各国政府和投资者减少与美国进行的商业（和投资）活动。</p>
</div><p>Much like the markets themselves, it’s unclear whether that trend has reached a temporary bottom (Treasury prices have ticked up modestly to begin the week, although the dollar is slightly weaker) or if it’s simply catching its breath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就像市场本身一样，目前尚不清楚这一趋势是否已经达到暂时底部（国债价格在本周初略有上涨，尽管美元略显疲软）或只是暂时喘息。</p>
</div><p>If you’re concerned that it’s the latter, there are a few ways you can hedge a weaker dollar. Gold has been particularly strong of late, and is likely to continue to be, especially if rate cuts are forthcoming.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你担心是后者，有几种方法可以对冲美元走弱。黄金最近表现特别强劲，尤其是在可能降息的情况下，预计将继续保持强势。</p>
</div><p>You can also consider adding direct exposure to foreign currency, and two foreign currency ETFs look particularly attractive right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你还可以考虑直接接触外币，目前有两只外币 ETF 看起来特别有吸引力。</p>
</div><h2><strong>2 Foreign Currency ETFs to Hedge a Weakening Dollar</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>2 只外币 ETF 以对冲美元走弱</strong></h2>
</div><p>Both the <strong>Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)</strong> and <strong>Euro Trust (FXE)</strong> have performed well this year, as the FXF is higher by 12% and the FXE is up 10.7%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF)</strong> 和 <strong>Euro Trust (FXE)</strong> 今年表现良好，FXF 上涨了 12%，FXE 上涨了 10.7%。</p>
</div><p><em>Cabot Explorer’s</em> Carl Delfeld makes a strong case for investing in Switzerland in its own right, and it has long offered a safe-haven appeal for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>_Cabot Explorer_的 Carl Delfeld 为投资瑞士提供了有力的理由，瑞士长期以来对投资者具有避风港的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>As for euros, the bloc has responded to the implementation of tariffs by trending towards coherence and has lately been presenting a more unified front. That stability is a notable value-add at a time of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>至于欧元，欧元区在实施关税后趋向于一致，最近展现出更为统一的立场。在不确定时期，这种稳定性是一个显著的价值增益。</p>
</div><p>Returns for either ETF are largely capped by the devaluation of the dollar, although the FXE does pay a modest dividend (1.8% over the last 12 months), so the potential here is entirely in the hedge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两只 ETF 的回报在很大程度上受到美元贬值的限制，尽管 FXE 在过去 12 个月支付了适度的股息（1.8%），因此这里的潜力完全在于对冲。</p>
</div><p>That said, if the tariff rollout is a sign of what’s to come, and there’s a growing distaste for American assets, using a currency ETF as a partial hedge may be a wise move, especially if you’re considering spending any time overseas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，如果关税的推出是未来的一个迹象，并且对美国资产的厌恶情绪在增加，使用货币 ETF 作为部分对冲可能是明智之举，尤其是如果你考虑在海外花费一些时间。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>[author_ad]</p>
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两只用于对冲美元贬值的外币 ETF