<p>“系好安全带，准备迎接挑战” 在过去两周成为华尔街的主题。自从特朗普总统公布 “解放日” 关税以来，<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 都记录了自成立以来最大的一日点数涨幅和跌幅。</p>
<p>而 “七大奇迹” 股票在过去两年中一直是推动整体市场上涨的主要力量，但在最近的抛售中，这些具有高度影响力的企业遭受了重创。</p>
<p>例如，华尔街的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA -0.18%）在 1 月的第一周短暂成为全球市值最大的上市公司，市值接近 4 万亿美元。但自 1 月 6 日达到收盘高点以来，其价值已缩水 26%（截至 4 月 11 日），并在 4 月 8 日时暴跌了 36%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ2MzYvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ2MzYvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>关税是一个问题，但远不是英伟达最大的担忧</h2>
<p>一些投资者可能会迅速将这种疲软归咎于特朗普总统关税公告带来的不确定性。</p>
<p>尽管特朗普已对大多数国家的高额互惠关税暂停 90 天，但美国与中国之间一系列升级的关税可能会带来问题。尽管英伟达并不从中国进口，但这个世界第二大经济体是英伟达的核心市场之一。中国的报复可能会以抵制英伟达的 AI 硬件的形式出现。</p>
<p>最初，特朗普的解放日公告还呼吁对台湾征收更高的关税，而台湾是全球领先的芯片制造商 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（TSMC -0.90%）的所在地。台湾半导体通常被称为 TSMC，是芯片 - 晶圆 - 基板封装技术的关键供应商，该技术结合了高带宽内存，使得 AI 加速的数据中心得以运转。值得庆幸的是，上周末总统的更新确保芯片和芯片设备将被排除在互惠关税之外。</p>
<p>关税以及特朗普总统改变关税生效时间和内容所带来的不确定性对英伟达来说是一个问题。然而，关税在当前和潜在的英伟达股东应该担心的事情中排在较后的位置。还有三个其他因素更可能导致英伟达股票的下跌。</p>
<h2>1. 内部竞争</h2>
<p>竞争几乎是所有上市公司的普遍问题。尽管英伟达的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和后续的 Blackwell GPU 架构目前在高计算数据中心中占据了大部分市场份额，但它们并不是对日益增长的竞争的免疫。</p>
<p>大多数投资者可能关注的是外部直接竞争对手，如 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（AMD 1.19%）。AMD 继续开发其 Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的新一代产品，这些产品的成本明显低于英伟达的 AI 硬件。那些不愿意在漫长的等待队列中等待获取英伟达 AI 芯片的企业可能会选择 AMD 的 Instinct GPU。</p>
<p>但对英伟达来说，比 AMD 及其同行更大的威胁来自内部。</p>
<p>英伟达收到的最大 GPU 订单大多来自 “七大奇迹” 成员。问题在于，这些行业巨头也在内部开发自己的 AI 芯片和/或解决方案，以便在他们的数据中心中使用。尽管这些内部开发的硬件在计算速度上不太可能优于英伟达的产品，但它们的成本显著更低且更易获得（即没有积压）。</p>
<p>换句话说，英伟达可以继续每年推出新的 AI-GPU，但仍然会失去宝贵的数据中心市场份额给自己的顶级客户。这对未来的订单和英伟达已经回落的毛利率来说都是坏消息。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ2MzYvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ2MzYvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2. 历史</h2>
<p>第二个问题比关税更令人担忧的是历史可能再次重演的可能性。</p>
<p>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，投资者都有一个下一个重大技术或创新来吸引他们的注意。投资者被潜在颠覆性技术或趋势附带的天文数字市场规模所吸引并不罕见。</p>
<p>然而，自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一个下一个重大趋势都经历了同样的命运：泡沫破裂事件。专业投资者和普通投资者一贯高估新趋势或技术获得广泛采用和/或获得实用性的速度，这导致了高期望未能实现。</p>
<p>尽管我们见证了对 AI 基础设施的积极企业支出，但几乎没有证据表明企业在这些 AI 投资中获得了正回报，或者已经找到了优化其 AI 解决方案的方法。所有新技术和趋势的成熟都需要时间，可以肯定地说，人工智能目前还远未达到这一点。</p>
<p>如果历史重演，投资者的预期被重置，那么可以说没有哪家上市公司会比英伟达受到更大的打击。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe86db333bee673e1edeef190d4df3b7.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe86db333bee673e1edeef190d4df3b7.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts。PS 比率 = 市盈率。</p>
<h2>3. 估值</h2>
<p>对英伟达来说，比关税更令人担忧的第三个问题是其估值。</p>
<p>去年夏天，英伟达的市销率（P/S）达到了 42.39 的峰值，这与互联网泡沫破裂前市场领先企业的市销率峰值一致。尽管英伟达的市销率自去年夏天以来已减半至 21.06，但这仍是最昂贵的 Mag-7 股票相对于其销售额所赋予的溢价的两倍。</p>
<p>如前所述，英伟达的公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率也开始回落。其 GPU 的卓越定价能力以及 AI-GPU 的稀缺性，帮助其 GAAP 毛利率在 2025 财年第一季度（截至 2024 年 4 月 28 日）达到了 78.4% 的峰值。然而，其 GAAP 毛利率在每个后续季度均有所下降，预计在当前财年第一季度将降至 70.6%（+/- 50 个基点）。</p>
<p>AI-GPU 稀缺性的减弱以及公司自身加速的产品更替周期可能会持续对毛利率造成压力。英伟达每年推出新 AI-GPU 的努力可能导致前一代 AI-GPU 的快速贬值，并减少现有客户升级到下一代硬件的意愿。</p>
<p>尽管人工智能解决方案和英伟达的长期前景依然光明，但无论关税方面发生什么，英伟达的股票在未来几个季度可能会表现平平。</p>

英伟达

<p>英伟达面临的挑战不仅仅是关税，这并不是投资者的主要关注点。关键问题包括主要客户开发自己的人工智能芯片带来的内部竞争，以及技术泡沫历史模式导致的未达预期。尽管英伟达在 GPU 市场占据主导地位，但来自 AMD 的竞争和内部发展威胁着其市场份额。此外，人工智能领域的成熟度和投资回报仍然不确定，这与过去技术采用的趋势相呼应</p>

<p>&#34;Buckle up and hold on&#34; has been something of a theme for Wall Street over the last two weeks. Ever since President Donald Trump unveiled his &#34;Liberation Day&#34; tariffs, the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> have logged some of their largest single-session point gains and declines since their respective inceptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“系好安全带，准备迎接挑战” 在过去两周成为华尔街的主题。自从特朗普总统公布 “解放日” 关税以来，<strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong>、<strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 和 <strong>纳斯达克综合指数</strong> 都记录了自成立以来最大的一日点数涨幅和跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Whereas the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks were responsible for leading the broader market higher for more than two years, these highly influential businesses have taken it on the chin during the recent sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而 “七大奇迹” 股票在过去两年中一直是推动整体市场上涨的主要力量，但在最近的抛售中，这些具有高度影响力的企业遭受了重创。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Wall Street's artificial intelligence (AI) darling <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.18%) briefly became the world's largest public company and sported a market cap of nearly $4 trillion during the first week of January. But since reaching its closing high on Jan. 6, it's shed 26% of its value (as of April 11), and plunged by as much as 36% (as of April 8).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，华尔街的人工智能（AI）宠儿 <strong>英伟达</strong>（Nvidia）（NVDA -0.18%）在 1 月的第一周短暂成为全球市值最大的上市公司，市值接近 4 万亿美元。但自 1 月 6 日达到收盘高点以来，其价值已缩水 26%（截至 4 月 11 日），并在 4 月 8 日时暴跌了 36%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ2MzYvdGFyaWZmcy1lY29ub215LXRyYWRlLXdhci11cy1jaGluYS1vbmUtaHVuZHJlZC1kb2xsYXItY2FzaC10YXgtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814636%2Ftariffs-economy-trade-war-us-china-one-hundred-dollar-cash-tax-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Tariffs are <em>a</em> problem, but far from the biggest concern for AI darling Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>关税是一个问题，但远不是英伟达最大的担忧</h2>
</div><p>Some investors might quick to assign the blame for this weakness on uncertainty tied to President Trump's tariff announcement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者可能会迅速将这种疲软归咎于特朗普总统关税公告带来的不确定性。</p>
</div><p>Although Trump has issued a 90-day pause on higher reciprocal tariffs for most countries, a series of escalating tariffs between the U.S. and China could be problematic. Even though Nvidia doesn't import from China, the world's No. 2 economy is one of Nvidia's core markets by net sales. Retaliation from China could take the form of shunning Nvidia's AI hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管特朗普已对大多数国家的高额互惠关税暂停 90 天，但美国与中国之间一系列升级的关税可能会带来问题。尽管英伟达并不从中国进口，但这个世界第二大经济体是英伟达的核心市场之一。中国的报复可能会以抵制英伟达的 AI 硬件的形式出现。</p>
</div><p>Initially, Trump's Liberation Day announcement also called for a higher tariff on Taiwan, which is home to world-leading chip fabricator <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -0.90%). TSMC, as Taiwan Semi is more commonly known, is a key provider of chip-on-wafer-on-substrate packaging technology that incorporates the high-bandwidth memory needed to make AI-accelerated data centers tick. Thankfully, an update this past weekend from the president ensured that chips and chip equipment would be excluded from reciprocal tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最初，特朗普的解放日公告还呼吁对台湾征收更高的关税，而台湾是全球领先的芯片制造商 <strong>台湾半导体制造公司</strong>（TSMC -0.90%）的所在地。台湾半导体通常被称为 TSMC，是芯片 - 晶圆 - 基板封装技术的关键供应商，该技术结合了高带宽内存，使得 AI 加速的数据中心得以运转。值得庆幸的是，上周末总统的更新确保芯片和芯片设备将被排除在互惠关税之外。</p>
</div><p>Tariffs, and the uncertainty created by President Trump changing when and what tariffs go into effect, are a problem for Nvidia. However, tariffs are pretty far down the list of things current and prospective Nvidia shareholders should be worried about. Three other factors are far more likely to be responsible for weighing down Nvidia stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>关税以及特朗普总统改变关税生效时间和内容所带来的不确定性对英伟达来说是一个问题。然而，关税在当前和潜在的英伟达股东应该担心的事情中排在较后的位置。还有三个其他因素更可能导致英伟达股票的下跌。</p>
</div><h2>1. Internal competition</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 内部竞争</h2>
</div><p>Competition is pretty much a universal problem for publicly traded companies. Even though Nvidia's Hopper (H100) graphics processing unit (GPU) and successor Blackwell GPU architecture currently account for the lion's share of GPU market share in high-compute data centers, they're not impervious to growing competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>竞争几乎是所有上市公司的普遍问题。尽管英伟达的 Hopper（H100）图形处理单元（GPU）和后续的 Blackwell GPU 架构目前在高计算数据中心中占据了大部分市场份额，但它们并不是对日益增长的竞争的免疫。</p>
</div><p>Most investors are probably focused on external direct competitors, such as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD 1.19%). AMD continues to develop new generations of its Instinct series AI-accelerating chips, all of which have been notably less-costly than Nvidia's AI hardware. Businesses that are unwilling to wait in a long queue for access to Nvidia's AI chips might opt for AMD's Instinct GPUs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多数投资者可能关注的是外部直接竞争对手，如 <strong>超微半导体</strong>（AMD 1.19%）。AMD 继续开发其 Instinct 系列 AI 加速芯片的新一代产品，这些产品的成本明显低于英伟达的 AI 硬件。那些不愿意在漫长的等待队列中等待获取英伟达 AI 芯片的企业可能会选择 AMD 的 Instinct GPU。</p>
</div><p>But there's a bigger threat for Nvidia than AMD and its peers -- a threat that emerges from within.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对英伟达来说，比 AMD 及其同行更大的威胁来自内部。</p>
</div><p>Many of the largest GPU orders received by Nvidia have come from members of the Magnificent Seven. The problem is that these industry goliaths are also internally developing AI chips and/or solutions of their own to use in their data centers. Even though this internally developed hardware is unlikely to be superior to Nvidia's in terms of computing speed, it's considerably cheaper and more readily available (i.e., not backlogged).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达收到的最大 GPU 订单大多来自 “七大奇迹” 成员。问题在于，这些行业巨头也在内部开发自己的 AI 芯片和/或解决方案，以便在他们的数据中心中使用。尽管这些内部开发的硬件在计算速度上不太可能优于英伟达的产品，但它们的成本显著更低且更易获得（即没有积压）。</p>
</div><p>Put another way, Nvidia can continue to introduce new AI-GPUs annually and still lose valuable data center real estate to its own top customers. That's bad news for future orders and Nvidia's already retracing gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，英伟达可以继续每年推出新的 AI-GPU，但仍然会失去宝贵的数据中心市场份额给自己的顶级客户。这对未来的订单和英伟达已经回落的毛利率来说都是坏消息。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ2MzYvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814636%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>2. History</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 历史</h2>
</div><p>A second issue that's more of a worry than tariffs is the possibility of history rhyming, once more, on Wall Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二个问题比关税更令人担忧的是历史可能再次重演的可能性。</p>
</div><p>For the better part of the last three decades, investors have had a next-big-thing technology or innovation to hold their attention. It's not uncommon for investors to be drawn in by pie-in-the-sky addressable market figures attached to a potentially game-changing technology or trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，投资者都有一个下一个重大技术或创新来吸引他们的注意。投资者被潜在颠覆性技术或趋势附带的天文数字市场规模所吸引并不罕见。</p>
</div><p>However, every next-big-thing trend since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s has endured the same fate: a bubble-bursting event. Professional and everyday investors consistently overestimate how quickly a new trend or technology will earn widespread adoption and/or gain meaningful utility, which is what leads to lofty expectations not being met.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自 1990 年代中期互联网出现以来，每一个下一个重大趋势都经历了同样的命运：泡沫破裂事件。专业投资者和普通投资者一贯高估新趋势或技术获得广泛采用和/或获得实用性的速度，这导致了高期望未能实现。</p>
</div><p>Though we've witnessed aggressive enterprise spending on AI infrastructure, there's little evidence to suggest that businesses are generating a positive return on these AI investments or have figured out how to optimize their AI solutions. It takes time for all new technologies and trends to mature, and it's safe to say that artificial intelligence isn't anywhere close to this point as of yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管我们见证了对 AI 基础设施的积极企业支出，但几乎没有证据表明企业在这些 AI 投资中获得了正回报，或者已经找到了优化其 AI 解决方案的方法。所有新技术和趋势的成熟都需要时间，可以肯定地说，人工智能目前还远未达到这一点。</p>
</div><p>If history were to rhyme and investor expectations are reset, there's arguably not a public company that would be hit harder than Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果历史重演，投资者的预期被重置，那么可以说没有哪家上市公司会比英伟达受到更大的打击。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe86db333bee673e1edeef190d4df3b7.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fe86db333bee673e1edeef190d4df3b7.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS Ratio = Price-to-sales ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率数据来源于 YCharts。PS 比率 = 市盈率。</p>
</div><h2>3. Valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 估值</h2>
</div><p>The third issue that's a considerably bigger concern than tariffs for Nvidia is its valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对英伟达来说，比关税更令人担忧的第三个问题是其估值。</p>
</div><p>Last summer, Nvidia's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio peaked at 42.39, which is consistent with the peak P/S ratios of market-leading businesses prior to the dot-com bubble bursting. Even though Nvidia's P/S ratio has been halved since last summer to 21.06, this is still double the premium assigned to the priciest Mag-7 stocks, relative to their sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年夏天，英伟达的市销率（P/S）达到了 42.39 的峰值，这与互联网泡沫破裂前市场领先企业的市销率峰值一致。尽管英伟达的市销率自去年夏天以来已减半至 21.06，但这仍是最昂贵的 Mag-7 股票相对于其销售额所赋予的溢价的两倍。</p>
</div><p>As alluded earlier, Nvidia's generally accepted accounting principle (GAAP) gross margin has begun rolling over, as well. Exceptional pricing power for its GPUs, along with AI-GPU scarcity, helped lift its GAAP gross margin to a peak of 78.4% in the fiscal first quarter of 2025 (ended April 28, 2024). However, its GAAP gross margin has fallen in each successive quarter and is forecast to dip to 70.6% (+/- 50 basis points) in the fiscal first quarter of the current year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，英伟达的公认会计原则（GAAP）毛利率也开始回落。其 GPU 的卓越定价能力以及 AI-GPU 的稀缺性，帮助其 GAAP 毛利率在 2025 财年第一季度（截至 2024 年 4 月 28 日）达到了 78.4% 的峰值。然而，其 GAAP 毛利率在每个后续季度均有所下降，预计在当前财年第一季度将降至 70.6%（+/- 50 个基点）。</p>
</div><p>Waning AI-GPU scarcity and the company's own accelerated product replacement cycle could be an ongoing drag on margins. Nvidia's efforts to bring a new AI-GPU to market annually could lead to rapid depreciation of prior-generation AI-GPUs, as well as lessen the desire by existing customers to upgrade to next-gen hardware.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI-GPU 稀缺性的减弱以及公司自身加速的产品更替周期可能会持续对毛利率造成压力。英伟达每年推出新 AI-GPU 的努力可能导致前一代 AI-GPU 的快速贬值，并减少现有客户升级到下一代硬件的意愿。</p>
</div><p>While the very long-term outlook for artificial intelligence solutions and Nvidia remains bright, Nvidia stock could easily underwhelm in the coming quarters, regardless of what happens on the tariff front.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管人工智能解决方案和英伟达的长期前景依然光明，但无论关税方面发生什么，英伟达的股票在未来几个季度可能会表现平平。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Has 3 Considerably Bigger Concerns Than Tariffs

- Nvidia 股票因内部竞争、历史重演和高估值面临压力。  
- 尽管特朗普的关税政策引发不确定性，但并非主要问题。  
- 投资者需关注 AI 投资回报和市场成熟度。

英伟达有三个远比关税更为重要的担忧