<p><strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 和 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 都没有进入熊市。然而，这两个指数中的一个重要成员却是。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -2.58%) 的股价仍比 2 月份创下的前高低了超过 20%，即使在最近几天尝试反弹之后。</p>
<p>一些投资者可能会想放弃亚马逊。不过，我认为这并不是一个明智的选择。历史表明，现在可能是购买亚马逊股票的好时机。</p>
<h2>回调等于机会</h2>
<p>你可能会惊讶于亚马逊的股价在这些年里有多少次从之前的高点下跌超过 20%。该公司于 1997 年 5 月进行首次公开募股。从那时起，据我统计，股票经历了 21 次熊市。这大约是每 16 个月一次的 20% 以上的下跌。</p>
<p>有时，急剧的抛售是短暂的。例如，2020 年 2 月，随着 COVID-19 在全球蔓延，亚马逊的股价与大多数股票一起暴跌。但该股在不到两个月的时间内恢复了之前的高点。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，有时亚马逊的股价在熊市区域停留的时间较长。当互联网泡沫在 1999 年底和 2000 年初破裂时，股票受到的打击尤其严重。亚马逊几乎花了九年的时间才恢复过来。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>无论亚马逊的股价低迷了多久，每次回调都为长期投资者提供了绝佳的买入机会。如果你在 1999 年 12 月 10 日亚马逊股价暴跌时投资了 10,000 美元（这似乎是个糟糕的时机），并且从未卖出，你今天将拥有近 340,000 美元。</p>
<h2>历史低估值</h2>
<p>相关的是，亚马逊目前的交易估值也处于历史低位。这部分是由于最近的抛售。然而，这也因为公司专注于提高盈利能力。</p>
<p>亚马逊的股票目前的市盈率低于过去 12 个月收益的 33 倍。上一次股票如此便宜是在 2008 年的市场崩溃期间，那时正值后来被称为大萧条的时期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>如果你在亚马逊的估值上一次如此低时投资了 10,000 美元，现在你将拥有多少钱？超过 760,000 美元。当然，历史上没有太多先例，但过去似乎表明，当亚马逊的市盈率低于 33 时，投资该公司的时机是非常好的。</p>
<p>值得一提的是，亚马逊的前瞻市盈率甚至更低——27.55。这表明华尔街预计该公司明年的盈利将继续强劲增长。</p>
<h2>历史会在亚马逊身上重演吗？</h2>
<p>在任何人开始大量购买亚马逊股票之前，重要的是要注意，亚马逊与其之前多次下跌 20% 或更多时的公司有很大不同。特别是，云计算不再是亚马逊在 2006 年首次推出亚马逊网络服务时那样令人眼花缭乱的新机会。</p>
<p>也就是说，我认为亚马逊在股价暴跌进入熊市后过去的表现对今天是有启发的。我也相信，该股历史低估值不应被忽视。</p>
<p>当然，亚马逊可能无法再提供过去 28 年那样令人瞩目的回报。然而，这并不意味着该股不会继续成为一个大赢家。</p>
<p>我认为人工智能的普及将推动未来十年及更长时间内向云计算的持续迁移。我预计电子商务市场将扩大。我预测亚马逊在医疗保健、卫星宽带和自动驾驶汽车技术方面的举措将会取得成效。正如马克·吐温有时（尽管可能是错误地）被引用所说的：“历史不会重演，但它常常押韵。”</p>

亚马逊

<p>亚马逊的股票目前比 2 月份的高点下跌超过 20%，但历史趋势表明这可能是一个良好的买入机会。自 1997 年上市以来，该股票经历了 21 次熊市，通常在下跌后会显著反弹。目前的市盈率低于 33 倍，类似于 2008 年市场崩溃时的水平，投资者可能会发现亚马逊未来增长的潜力，特别是在云服务和新举措方面。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但该股票的历史表明，现在可能是一个值得投资的时机</p>

<p>Neither the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> nor the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is in a bear market. However, a prominent member of the two indexes is. Shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.58%) remain down more than 20% below the previous high set in February, even after an attempted rebound in recent days.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>道琼斯工业平均指数</strong> 和 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 都没有进入熊市。然而，这两个指数中的一个重要成员却是。<strong>亚马逊</strong>(AMZN -2.58%) 的股价仍比 2 月份创下的前高低了超过 20%，即使在最近几天尝试反弹之后。</p>
</div><p>Some investors may be tempted to give up on Amazon. I don't think that's a great move, though. History suggests that now could be a smart time to buy Amazon stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者可能会想放弃亚马逊。不过，我认为这并不是一个明智的选择。历史表明，现在可能是购买亚马逊股票的好时机。</p>
</div><h2>Pullbacks equal opportunities</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>回调等于机会</h2>
</div><p>You might be surprised just how often Amazon's share price has fallen by 20% or more from a previous high over the years. The company conducted its initial public offering in May 1997. Since then, by my count, the stock has been in a bear market 21 times. That's a 20%-plus decline of roughly once every 16 months on average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能会惊讶于亚马逊的股价在这些年里有多少次从之前的高点下跌超过 20%。该公司于 1997 年 5 月进行首次公开募股。从那时起，据我统计，股票经历了 21 次熊市。这大约是每 16 个月一次的 20% 以上的下跌。</p>
</div><p>Sometimes, the steep sell-offs have been brief. For example, Amazon's shares tanked in February 2020 along with most stocks as COVID-19 swept across the world. But the stock recaptured its previous high in less than two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有时，急剧的抛售是短暂的。例如，2020 年 2 月，随着 COVID-19 在全球蔓延，亚马逊的股价与大多数股票一起暴跌。但该股在不到两个月的时间内恢复了之前的高点。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/c80ac156e49f06d9ed62d60f90af9f4f.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Other times, though, Amazon remained in bear market territory for a long time. The stock was hit especially hard when the dot-com bubble burst in late 1999 and early 2000. It took Amazon nearly nine years to recover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，有时亚马逊的股价在熊市区域停留的时间较长。当互联网泡沫在 1999 年底和 2000 年初破裂时，股票受到的打击尤其严重。亚马逊几乎花了九年的时间才恢复过来。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1058a70a266ad724d31dc80ffe345b6c.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Regardless of how long Amazon's share price stayed depressed, though, every pullback presented a great buying opportunity for long-term investors. If you invested $10,000 in Amazon on the day its shares plunged on Dec. 10, 1999 (which would have seemed to be horrible timing), and never sold, you'd have nearly $340,000 today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论亚马逊的股价低迷了多久，每次回调都为长期投资者提供了绝佳的买入机会。如果你在 1999 年 12 月 10 日亚马逊股价暴跌时投资了 10,000 美元（这似乎是个糟糕的时机），并且从未卖出，你今天将拥有近 340,000 美元。</p>
</div><h2>A historically low valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史低估值</h2>
</div><p>On a related note, Amazon is also trading at a historically low valuation. That's partly because of the latest sell-off. However, it's also due to the company focusing intently on improving profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相关的是，亚马逊目前的交易估值也处于历史低位。这部分是由于最近的抛售。然而，这也因为公司专注于提高盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's shares currently trade below 33 times trailing 12-month earnings. The last time the stock was this cheap was during the market meltdown of 2008, in the midst of what would later be called the Great Recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亚马逊的股票目前的市盈率低于过去 12 个月收益的 33 倍。上一次股票如此便宜是在 2008 年的市场崩溃期间，那时正值后来被称为大萧条的时期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3c29849d969eac0cc47ec88798dbc0bd.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>How much money would you have now if you had invested $10,000 in Amazon stock the last time its valuation was this low? Over $760,000. There's limited historical precedent, of course, but the past seems to indicate that buying Amazon when its price-to-earnings multiple is under 33 is a <em>really</em> great time to invest in the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在亚马逊的估值上一次如此低时投资了 10,000 美元，现在你将拥有多少钱？超过 760,000 美元。当然，历史上没有太多先例，但过去似乎表明，当亚马逊的市盈率低于 33 时，投资该公司的时机是非常好的。</p>
</div><p>For what it's worth, Amazon's forward price-to-earnings ratio is even lower -- 27.55. This underscores that Wall Street expects the company to continue growing its earnings robustly next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得一提的是，亚马逊的前瞻市盈率甚至更低——27.55。这表明华尔街预计该公司明年的盈利将继续强劲增长。</p>
</div><h2>Will history repeat itself with Amazon?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>历史会在亚马逊身上重演吗？</h2>
</div><p>Before anyone backs up the truck and begins loading up on Amazon stock, it's important to note that Amazon is a much different company than it was during many of its previous declines of 20% or more. In particular, the cloud isn't the dazzling new opportunity that it was when Amazon first launched Amazon Web Services in 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在任何人开始大量购买亚马逊股票之前，重要的是要注意，亚马逊与其之前多次下跌 20% 或更多时的公司有很大不同。特别是，云计算不再是亚马逊在 2006 年首次推出亚马逊网络服务时那样令人眼花缭乱的新机会。</p>
</div><p>That said, I think that Amazon's past performance after its share price plunged into bear market territory is instructive today. I also believe that the stock's historically low valuation shouldn't be ignored.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是说，我认为亚马逊在股价暴跌进入熊市后过去的表现对今天是有启发的。我也相信，该股历史低估值不应被忽视。</p>
</div><p>Sure, Amazon probably won't be able to deliver the jaw-dropping returns that it has over the past 28 years. However, that doesn't mean the stock won't continue to be a big winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，亚马逊可能无法再提供过去 28 年那样令人瞩目的回报。然而，这并不意味着该股不会继续成为一个大赢家。</p>
</div><p>I think that the adoption of artificial intelligence will fuel a sustained migration to the cloud over the next decade and beyond. I expect the e-commerce market to expand. I predict Amazon's initiatives in healthcare, satellite broadband, and self-driving car technology will pay off. As Mark Twain is sometimes (although perhaps erroneously) credited as saying, &#34;History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为人工智能的普及将推动未来十年及更长时间内向云计算的持续迁移。我预计电子商务市场将扩大。我预测亚马逊在医疗保健、卫星宽带和自动驾驶汽车技术方面的举措将会取得成效。正如马克·吐温有时（尽管可能是错误地）被引用所说的：“历史不会重演，但它常常押韵。”</p>
</div>

History Suggests Now Could Be a Smart Time to Buy Amazon Stock

- 亚马逊股价下跌超过 20%，但历史上每次回调都是长期投资的机会。  
- 当前亚马逊的市盈率处于历史低位，低于 33 倍，吸引投资者关注。  
- 尽管亚马逊面临挑战，未来在云计算和电商领域仍有增长潜力。  

历史经验表明，现在可能是购买亚马逊股票的好时机