<p>沃伦·巴菲特毫不掩饰他对 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -3.82%) 的喜爱，曾称其为他所知道的最佳商业。它通常是 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%) (BRK.B -2.13%) 投资组合中的最大持股。</p>
<p>但在去年多个季度中，伯克希尔一直在削减其在这家 iPhone 制造商的持股，这让一些投资者开始怀疑这位亿万富翁投资者是否对这家科技公司不再那么乐观。</p>
<p>我认为这并不属实，以下是我相信他可能在市场最近的抛售中增加了持股的原因。</p>
<h2>巴菲特最初可能削减在苹果的持股的原因</h2>
<p>在 2024 年 11 月，投资者注意到他连续第四个季度减少了对这家科技公司的持股。到那时，他在过去一年中已经出售了超过 6.15 亿股。虽然他每次买卖股票的原因通常不为人知，但一个可能的原因可能与税收有关。</p>
<p>过去，他曾表达过对资本利得税可能上升的担忧。而总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯确实建议提高这一税率。</p>
<p>巴菲特为了照顾伯克希尔的股东，可能希望在税率上升之前出售一大部分苹果股票，以避免因多年来股票价值的巨大上涨而给公司带来沉重的税负。而且，与其通过一次大规模的股票出售来惊吓市场，分散在多个季度进行出售可能更为合理。</p>
<p>但无论是出于税收原因还是苹果估值的上升，都没有理由相信他认为这家企业有麻烦。它每年持续产生超过 900 亿美元的利润，过去 12 个月的收入接近 4000 亿美元。其服务业务持续增长，尽管今天的投资者可能对关税感到担忧，但在股票出售时并没有明显的担忧理由。</p>
<h2>现在可能是巴菲特增持苹果股票的良机</h2>
<p>在当前季度（从 4 月开始），我预计伯克希尔会进行大规模购买，增加在苹果的持股。在唐纳德·特朗普总统任内，资本利得税可能不会上升，甚至可能会降低。</p>
<p>无论如何，在当前政府下，风险显著降低，这可能缓解了巴菲特对税率上升的担忧，至少在可预见的未来。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，他在 2024 年第四季度停止了出售苹果股票——当时正值选举，哈里斯提高资本利得税的风险消失。虽然这可能只是巧合，但很难忽视这个时机。</p>
<p>另一个购买该股票的动机是苹果在特朗普宣布 “解放日” 和全球关税公告后的暴跌。这导致投资者抛售股票，担心关税会显著提高这家科技公司的成本。</p>
<p>股票最终下跌，4 月 8 日收于 172.42 美元，距离其 52 周低点 164.08 美元并不远。对于巴菲特来说，这可能创造了一个不容错过的买入机会。我相信，随着税收担忧的缓解以及伯克希尔在苹果的持股显著减少，这使得他在本月某个时候增加对这家消费科技公司的投资变得容易。</p>
<p>尽管关税风险仍然存在，但对于像巴菲特这样的长期投资者，我认为这并不会让他放弃购买该股票。</p>
<h2>现在苹果股票值得购买吗？</h2>
<p>如果你是长期投资者，你会考虑购买并持有苹果股票，不仅仅是几年，而是几十年。关税可能会在短期内对其运营造成问题，但如果你是为了长期投资，最终这可能并不那么重要。</p>
<p>公司的基本面依然强劲，凭借其卓越的品牌，苹果是你今天可以在投资组合中持有的最安全和最佳的成长股票之一。</p>

苹果

<p>沃伦·巴菲特预计将在本季度增加对苹果股票的投资，此前他曾削减了持仓。对资本利得税上升的担忧可能影响了他之前的抛售，但在当前政府的背景下，这些担忧有所减轻。苹果最近的股价下跌提供了一个买入机会，尽管存在关税风险，但其强劲的基本面使其成为一个稳健的长期投资。巴菲特偏爱苹果的历史表明，他可能会抓住这个机会来增加对这家科技巨头的持股</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has made no secret about how much he likes <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -3.82%), once referring to it as the best business he knows of. It's routinely the top holding in the portfolio of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%) (BRK.B -2.13%), Buffett's conglomerate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特毫不掩饰他对 <strong>苹果</strong>(AAPL -3.82%) 的喜爱，曾称其为他所知道的最佳商业。它通常是 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%) (BRK.B -2.13%) 投资组合中的最大持股。</p>
</div><p>But for multiple quarters last year, Berkshire had been trimming its position in the iPhone maker, leading some investors to wonder if the billionaire investor is no longer as optimistic about the tech company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在去年多个季度中，伯克希尔一直在削减其在这家 iPhone 制造商的持股，这让一些投资者开始怀疑这位亿万富翁投资者是否对这家科技公司不再那么乐观。</p>
</div><p>Not only do I think that's not true, here's why I also believe he probably added to his position amid the market's recent sell-off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为这并不属实，以下是我相信他可能在市场最近的抛售中增加了持股的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why Buffett may have been trimming his position in Apple to begin with</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>巴菲特最初可能削减在苹果的持股的原因</h2>
</div><p>In November 2024, investors noticed that he reduced his stake in the tech company for a fourth consecutive quarter. At that point, he had sold more than 615 million shares over the past year. While his reasons are usually not known for why he buys or sells a stock each time, one possible reason could be to do with taxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 11 月，投资者注意到他连续第四个季度减少了对这家科技公司的持股。到那时，他在过去一年中已经出售了超过 6.15 亿股。虽然他每次买卖股票的原因通常不为人知，但一个可能的原因可能与税收有关。</p>
</div><p>In the past, he has voiced concern that the tax rate on capital gains might rise. And presidential candidate Kamala Harris did suggest increasing it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去，他曾表达过对资本利得税可能上升的担忧。而总统候选人卡马拉·哈里斯确实建议提高这一税率。</p>
</div><p>Buffett, in looking out for Berkshire shareholders, may have wanted to sell off a big chunk of Apple stock before that happened, to avoid a hefty tax bill for the company given the shares' mammoth rise in value over the years. And rather that spooking the markets with one large stock sale, spreading it out over multiple quarters might have made more sense.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特为了照顾伯克希尔的股东，可能希望在税率上升之前出售一大部分苹果股票，以避免因多年来股票价值的巨大上涨而给公司带来沉重的税负。而且，与其通过一次大规模的股票出售来惊吓市场，分散在多个季度进行出售可能更为合理。</p>
</div><p>But whether it's to do with taxes or Apple's rising valuation, there would have been no reason to believe that he thought the business was in trouble. It consistently generates more than $90 billion in profit each year, and its revenue over the trailing 12 months has totaled nearly $400 billion. Its services business continues to grow, and although investors today may be worried about tariffs, at the time of the stock sales there would have been no glaring reason for worry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但无论是出于税收原因还是苹果估值的上升，都没有理由相信他认为这家企业有麻烦。它每年持续产生超过 900 亿美元的利润，过去 12 个月的收入接近 4000 亿美元。其服务业务持续增长，尽管今天的投资者可能对关税感到担忧，但在股票出售时并没有明显的担忧理由。</p>
</div><h2>Why now may be an opportune time for Buffett to load up on Apple stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在可能是巴菲特增持苹果股票的良机</h2>
</div><p>During the current quarter, which began in April, I would expect to see a big purchase from Berkshire, adding to its position in Apple. Under President Donald Trump, capital gains taxes might not increase, and it's possible he could even decrease them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在当前季度（从 4 月开始），我预计伯克希尔会进行大规模购买，增加在苹果的持股。在唐纳德·特朗普总统任内，资本利得税可能不会上升，甚至可能会降低。</p>
</div><p>Either way, the risk is considerably much lower under the current administration, which may alleviate any concerns Buffett had about a rising tax rate, at least for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>无论如何，在当前政府下，风险显著降低，这可能缓解了巴菲特对税率上升的担忧，至少在可预见的未来。</p>
</div><p>What is notable is that he stopped selling Apple stock in the fourth quarter of 2024 -- when the election took place and the risk of Harris raising capital gains taxes was gone. It may have just been a coincidence, but it's hard to ignore the timing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，他在 2024 年第四季度停止了出售苹果股票——当时正值选举，哈里斯提高资本利得税的风险消失。虽然这可能只是巧合，但很难忽视这个时机。</p>
</div><p>Another incentive to buy the stock is Apple's crash after Trump's declaration of &#34;Liberation Day&#34; and the announcement of global tariffs. That caused investors to dump their shares on fears that tariffs would significantly raise costs for the tech company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个购买该股票的动机是苹果在特朗普宣布 “解放日” 和全球关税公告后的暴跌。这导致投资者抛售股票，担心关税会显著提高这家科技公司的成本。</p>
</div><p>The stock would end up falling, and on April 8 it closed at $172.42 -- not far from its 52-week low of $164.08. For Buffett, that may have created a buying opportunity too appealing to pass up. And I believe with the tax fears alleviated and Berkshire's position in Apple being significantly reduced, it would have made it easy to justify adding to its stake in the consumer tech company at some point this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票最终下跌，4 月 8 日收于 172.42 美元，距离其 52 周低点 164.08 美元并不远。对于巴菲特来说，这可能创造了一个不容错过的买入机会。我相信，随着税收担忧的缓解以及伯克希尔在苹果的持股显著减少，这使得他在本月某个时候增加对这家消费科技公司的投资变得容易。</p>
</div><p>While the tariff risk is still there, for a long-term investor such as Buffett, I don't believe it would have necessarily dissuaded him from buying the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管关税风险仍然存在，但对于像巴菲特这样的长期投资者，我认为这并不会让他放弃购买该股票。</p>
</div><h2>Is Apple stock a good buy right now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在苹果股票值得购买吗？</h2>
</div><p>If you're a long-term investor, you'll want to consider buying and holding Apple for not just years but decades. Tariffs could cause problems for its operations in the short run but if you're investing for the long haul, it may not matter all that much in the end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你是长期投资者，你会考虑购买并持有苹果股票，不仅仅是几年，而是几十年。关税可能会在短期内对其运营造成问题，但如果你是为了长期投资，最终这可能并不那么重要。</p>
</div><p>The company's fundamentals remain strong, and with an excellent brand behind it, Apple is one of the safest and best growth stocks you can hold in your portfolio today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的基本面依然强劲，凭借其卓越的品牌，苹果是你今天可以在投资组合中持有的最安全和最佳的成长股票之一。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Warren Buffett Will Start Buying More Apple Stock This Quarter

- 巴菲特持续减持苹果股票，引发市场对其乐观态度的质疑。  
- 减持可能与税务考虑有关，避免未来资本利得税上升的影响。  
- 当前市场回调或为巴菲特增持苹果提供了良机。

预测：沃伦·巴菲特将在本季度增持苹果股票