<p>尽管加密货币在全球贸易的起伏中几乎没有作用，但关税有可能以几种深远的方式扰乱它们。这是因为股票、债务和加密市场之间的联系比许多人想象的要紧密得多。</p>
<p>由于关税的不确定性，波动性已经激增，加密货币价格几乎全面下跌。那么，哪些因素将在 2025 年对你的加密投资组合产生最大的影响呢？</p>
<h2>投资者情绪</h2>
<p>让我们从投资者情绪开始，因为这是一个容易量化的因素。目前，加密恐惧与贪婪指数为 29，表明投资者相对恐惧。该指数的测量范围为 0-100，100 表示极度亢奋。</p>
<p>由于对关税的所有担忧，这个恐惧与贪婪指数在 3 月和 4 月短暂跌破 20。因此，如果你想这么说，好的消息是投资者似乎稍微平静了一些。</p>
<p>但问题是：在当前环境下，投资者没有购买投机性迷因币或风险较高的山寨币的兴趣。不幸的是，这意味着 “山寨币季节”——山寨币暴涨的时期——可能今年不会到来。</p>
<p>历史上，<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH 1.19%) 一直是开启山寨币季节的加密货币。你猜怎么着？以太坊今年下跌了 53%，过去 30 天下跌了 16%。没有以太坊，就没有山寨币季节。</p>
<p>相反，投资者更有可能将资金转移到 <strong>比特币</strong>(BTC 0.73%)，它常常被称为数字黄金。虽然比特币是否能作为长期价值储存仍有争议，但它在这次关税动荡中似乎表现得比其他顶级加密货币更为稳健。</p>
<h2>加密货币估值与宏观经济前景的关系</h2>
<p>与此同时，投资者正在重新思考如何评估加密货币。在牛市周期中，投资者关注与区块链增长相关的变量——例如新用户增加、区块链交易活动的增长或技术性能的快速提升。但在熊市周期中，关注点转向财政政策、货币政策和宏观经济数据。</p>
<p>因此，加密投资者对可能提供通胀线索和经济走向的宏观经济数据表现出浓厚的兴趣。他们特别关注美国联邦储备可能采取的行动。这是因为降息被视为对加密货币非常有利。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NTQvYnVsbC1iZWFyLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1zdG9ybS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NTQvYnVsbC1iZWFyLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1zdG9ybS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>在过去，这种对整体宏观经济前景的关注在加密市场并不明显。加密货币与每个主要金融资产之间没有相关性，华尔街或华盛顿特区发生的事情并不重要。直到最近，机构投资者在加密市场中几乎没有发挥作用，政治家们几乎没有关注加密货币。</p>
<p>但这一切在 2024 年 1 月随着现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出而改变。现在，购买科技股的同一群人也在购买现货比特币 ETF，这意味着他们关注的是相同的经济数据。难怪科技股与加密货币之间的相关性正在加紧。在 2025 年的大部分时间里，比特币的表现就像一只非常昂贵且波动的科技股。</p>
<h2>加密货币作为主权政府的战略资产</h2>
<p>如果贸易战加剧，全球主权政府可能会开始将加密货币视为一种战略资产，以帮助他们实现某些经济目标。毕竟，如果出口枯竭，或经济增长停滞，他们可能被迫采取激烈措施。而加密货币可能为他们提供一种非常独特的政策选择。</p>
<p>例如，特朗普白宫在 3 月提出的战略比特币储备。当前的思路是，比特币是一种战略资产，类似于黄金或石油，政府应该储备。在立法者已经提出的一个情景中，这些比特币储备可能在某一天被用来帮助偿还政府沉重的 37 万亿美元债务负担。</p>
<p>此外，财政部长斯科特·贝森特毫不掩饰地表示，稳定币——加密世界的数字美元——可能被用来实现某些货币目标。这是因为稳定币与美元 1 比 1 挂钩，并由现金和现金等价物（包括短期国债）支持。</p>
<p>这些国债持有创造了债券市场与加密市场之间的新联系。例如，有人建议稳定币有可能压低美国国债的收益率，从而减少政府的债务利息成本。</p>
<h2>现在买哪些加密货币</h2>
<p>因此，综合考虑，完美的加密货币应该是（1）被视为安全资产和长期价值储存，（2）能够超越科技股，以及（3）获得主权政府的默许支持。</p>
<p>从我的角度来看，所有这些都指向比特币是你现在需要购买的唯一加密货币。尽管比特币远非稳妥的投资，但如果特朗普的关税演变为全面的贸易战，我没有其他加密货币更愿意持有。</p>

ETHE

<p>关税有可能显著扰乱加密货币，尽管它们在全球贸易中的作用微乎其微。目前投资者情绪恐慌，Crypto Fear & Greed Index（加密恐惧与贪婪指数）为 29，这影响了投机性投资。比特币被视为比以太坊更安全的选择，而以太坊今年已下跌 53%。此外，宏观经济因素也在影响加密货币的估值，重点关注美国联邦储备的政策。各国政府可能还会将加密货币视为管理经济挑战的战略资产，可能利用比特币储备来应对国家债务</p>

<p>Despite the fact that cryptocurrencies play very little role in the ebb and flow of global trade, tariffs have the potential to disrupt them in several profound ways. That's because the equity, debt, and crypto markets are more interconnected than many people might assume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管加密货币在全球贸易的起伏中几乎没有作用，但关税有可能以几种深远的方式扰乱它们。这是因为股票、债务和加密市场之间的联系比许多人想象的要紧密得多。</p>
</div><p>Already, volatility has spiked and crypto prices are down nearly across the board, due to tariff uncertainty. So, which factors will have the greatest impact on your crypto portfolio in 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于关税的不确定性，波动性已经激增，加密货币价格几乎全面下跌。那么，哪些因素将在 2025 年对你的加密投资组合产生最大的影响呢？</p>
</div><h2>Investor sentiment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投资者情绪</h2>
</div><p>Let's start with investor sentiment, because this is one factor that is easy to quantify. Right now, the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index sits at 29, indicating that investors are relatively fearful. The index is measured on a scale from 0-100, with 100 being extremely euphoric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们从投资者情绪开始，因为这是一个容易量化的因素。目前，加密恐惧与贪婪指数为 29，表明投资者相对恐惧。该指数的测量范围为 0-100，100 表示极度亢奋。</p>
</div><p>This Fear &amp; Greed Index briefly dipped below 20 in both March and April, due to all the concerns about tariffs. So the good news, if you want to call it that, is that investors seem to be calming down a bit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于对关税的所有担忧，这个恐惧与贪婪指数在 3 月和 4 月短暂跌破 20。因此，如果你想这么说，好的消息是投资者似乎稍微平静了一些。</p>
</div><p>But here's the thing: In the current environment, there is no appetite to buy speculative meme coins or risky altcoins. And that, unfortunately, means that &#34;Altcoin Season&#34; -- the time of the year when altcoins go parabolic -- may not be coming this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但问题是：在当前环境下，投资者没有购买投机性迷因币或风险较高的山寨币的兴趣。不幸的是，这意味着 “山寨币季节”——山寨币暴涨的时期——可能今年不会到来。</p>
</div><p>Historically, <strong>Ethereum</strong>(ETH 1.19%) has been the cryptocurrency that kicks off the start of Altcoin Season. And guess what? Ethereum is down 53% for the year and 16% during the past 30 days. Without Ethereum, there will be no Altcoin Season.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，<strong>以太坊</strong>(ETH 1.19%) 一直是开启山寨币季节的加密货币。你猜怎么着？以太坊今年下跌了 53%，过去 30 天下跌了 16%。没有以太坊，就没有山寨币季节。</p>
</div><p>Instead, investors will be much more likely to move their money into <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(BTC 0.73%), which has often been referred to as digital gold. While it's still debatable whether Bitcoin can act as a long-term store of value, it does appear to be holding up better through this tariff upheaval than other top cryptocurrencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，投资者更有可能将资金转移到 <strong>比特币</strong>(BTC 0.73%)，它常常被称为数字黄金。虽然比特币是否能作为长期价值储存仍有争议，但它在这次关税动荡中似乎表现得比其他顶级加密货币更为稳健。</p>
</div><h2>Crypto valuations tied to the macroeconomic outlook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密货币估值与宏观经济前景的关系</h2>
</div><p>At the same time, investors are rethinking how they value cryptocurrencies. During bullish market cycles, investors focus on variables related to blockchain growth -- such as new user increases, gains in blockchain transaction activity, or rapid improvements in technical performance. But during bearish market cycles, focus shifts to fiscal policy, monetary policy, and macroeconomic data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，投资者正在重新思考如何评估加密货币。在牛市周期中，投资者关注与区块链增长相关的变量——例如新用户增加、区块链交易活动的增长或技术性能的快速提升。但在熊市周期中，关注点转向财政政策、货币政策和宏观经济数据。</p>
</div><p>As a result, crypto investors are taking a keen interest in macroeconomic data that might offer clues about inflation and where the economy could be headed. They are especially focused on potential moves by the U.S. Federal Reserve. That's because interest rate cuts are perceived as being very bullish for crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，加密投资者对可能提供通胀线索和经济走向的宏观经济数据表现出浓厚的兴趣。他们特别关注美国联邦储备可能采取的行动。这是因为降息被视为对加密货币非常有利。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NTQvYnVsbC1iZWFyLWZpbmFuY2lhbC1zdG9ybS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814854%2Fbull-bear-financial-storm.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>In the past, this focus on the overall macroeconomic outlook was not so much the case for the crypto market. Crypto was uncorrelated with every major financial asset, and it really didn't matter what was happening on Wall Street or in Washington, D.C. Until fairly recently, institutional investors played very little role in the crypto market, and politicians paid almost no attention to crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在过去，这种对整体宏观经济前景的关注在加密市场并不明显。加密货币与每个主要金融资产之间没有相关性，华尔街或华盛顿特区发生的事情并不重要。直到最近，机构投资者在加密市场中几乎没有发挥作用，政治家们几乎没有关注加密货币。</p>
</div><p>But all that changed in January 2024 with the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ETFs. Now, the same people who buy tech stocks are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs, and that means they are looking at the same economic numbers. No wonder correlations between tech stocks and cryptos are tightening. For much of 2025, Bitcoin has behaved like a very expensive and volatile tech stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但这一切在 2024 年 1 月随着现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出而改变。现在，购买科技股的同一群人也在购买现货比特币 ETF，这意味着他们关注的是相同的经济数据。难怪科技股与加密货币之间的相关性正在加紧。在 2025 年的大部分时间里，比特币的表现就像一只非常昂贵且波动的科技股。</p>
</div><h2>Crypto as a strategic asset for sovereign governments</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>加密货币作为主权政府的战略资产</h2>
</div><p>If the trade war intensifies, it's possible that sovereign governments around the world will start to view crypto as a strategic asset that can help them achieve certain economic goals. After all, they might be forced to take drastic steps if exports dry up, or if economic growth grinds to a halt. And crypto could give them a very unique policy option.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果贸易战加剧，全球主权政府可能会开始将加密货币视为一种战略资产，以帮助他们实现某些经济目标。毕竟，如果出口枯竭，或经济增长停滞，他们可能被迫采取激烈措施。而加密货币可能为他们提供一种非常独特的政策选择。</p>
</div><p>Take, for example, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which the Trump White House outlined in March. The current thinking is that Bitcoin is a strategic asset, similar to gold or oil, that the government should stockpile. In one scenario that has already been proposed by lawmakers, those Bitcoin reserves might one day be used to help pay down the government's crushing $37 trillion debt load.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，特朗普白宫在 3 月提出的战略比特币储备。当前的思路是，比特币是一种战略资产，类似于黄金或石油，政府应该储备。在立法者已经提出的一个情景中，这些比特币储备可能在某一天被用来帮助偿还政府沉重的 37 万亿美元债务负担。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made no secret of the fact that stablecoins -- the digital dollars of the crypto world -- might be used to achieve certain monetary goals. That's because stablecoins are pegged 1-to-1 to the U.S. dollar, and are backed by cash and cash equivalents, including short-term Treasury bills.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，财政部长斯科特·贝森特毫不掩饰地表示，稳定币——加密世界的数字美元——可能被用来实现某些货币目标。这是因为稳定币与美元 1 比 1 挂钩，并由现金和现金等价物（包括短期国债）支持。</p>
</div><p>These Treasury holdings create all sorts of new linkages between the bond market and the crypto market. For example, some have suggested that stablecoins have the potential to push down yields on U.S. Treasury debt, thereby reducing the government's interest costs on its debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些国债持有创造了债券市场与加密市场之间的新联系。例如，有人建议稳定币有可能压低美国国债的收益率，从而减少政府的债务利息成本。</p>
</div><h2>Which cryptos to buy now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在买哪些加密货币</h2>
</div><p>So, putting it all together, the perfect crypto to buy would be one that (1) is viewed as a safe asset and long-term store of value, (2) can outperform tech stocks, and (3) has the tacit support of sovereign governments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，综合考虑，完美的加密货币应该是（1）被视为安全资产和长期价值储存，（2）能够超越科技股，以及（3）获得主权政府的默许支持。</p>
</div><p>From my perspective, all of that points to Bitcoin being the one crypto you need to buy right now. Although Bitcoin is far from being a slam-dunk investment, there's no other crypto I'd rather hold if Trump's tariffs turn into a full-blown trade war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从我的角度来看，所有这些都指向比特币是你现在需要购买的唯一加密货币。尽管比特币远非稳妥的投资，但如果特朗普的关税演变为全面的贸易战，我没有其他加密货币更愿意持有。</p>
</div>

3 Ways Tariffs Are About to Disrupt Cryptocurrencies Around the World

- 加密货币与全球贸易的关系微弱，但关税可能深刻影响其市场。  
- 投资者情绪低迷，Crypto Fear & Greed Index 为 29，表明市场恐惧。  
- 比特币被视为安全资产，可能在贸易战中表现优于其他加密货币。

关税即将通过三种方式扰乱全球的加密货币市场