<p>市场波动再次回归。在经历了连续两年的上涨市场——2023 年和 2024 年是 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 历史上最好的年份之一——2025 年带来了痛苦。</p>
<p>虽然标准普尔 500 指数尚未正式下跌 20%，因此未触发熊市声明，但它正经历自 2022 年以来最剧烈的回撤，并且由于关税混乱，最近几周经历了一些剧烈的波动。波动率指数年初至今上涨了 100%。</p>
<p>当价格下跌时，这可能会引发压力，让你相信现在是积极交易投资组合的时机。沃伦·巴菲特对此观点持不同意见。这位最佳投资者经历了十几次市场下跌，比任何人都更明白，逆向思维和长期心态才是赢得股市的关键。</p>
<p>以下是沃伦·巴菲特在应对熊市时的三条建议。</p>
<h2>熊市是你的朋友</h2>
<p>在熊市中，股市价格正在下跌。这与美国上市公司的_价值_无关。沃伦·巴菲特建议将股票视为一种合同，赋予你对企业的所有权。如果你购买标准普尔 500 指数基金，你就是在购买美国企业未来盈利能力的一部分。</p>
<p>把它想象成在零售商或超市购买商品。假设商品完全相同，你更愿意让你的购物账单是 200 美元还是 100 美元？每个人都会选择 100 美元；否则的想法是不合逻辑的。以同样的方式看待股市。如果标准普尔 500 指数从历史最高点下跌 50%，你就能够以 50% 的折扣购买美国企业的集体所有权，这应该让你感到兴奋。</p>
<p>这就是为什么沃伦·巴菲特说熊市是投资者最好的朋友。购买股票的人，尤其是年轻人，能够以显著低于历史价格的折扣进行购买。年轻投资者应该为股价下跌而欢呼，因为这给他们提供了以更低价格购买企业所有权的机会。</p>
<h2>当别人恐惧时要贪婪</h2>
<p>对股价下跌感到欢呼与沃伦·巴菲特的另一条建议有关，也许是他最著名的格言：当别人恐惧时要贪婪。股价下跌发生在当人们更加害怕时，他们关注短期并跟随头条新闻，寻找买入或卖出的信号。在这个时刻，巴菲特认为最佳投资者会采取逆向思维。</p>
<p>当其他人感到恐惧，而你喜欢的股票价格下跌 90% 时，趁其他人纷纷逃离时加大投资可能会带来丰厚的回报。例如，我们可以看看巴菲特在 2008 年大萧条后对 <strong>穆迪</strong>(MCO -2.19%) 的投资，他的投资公司 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%)(BRK.B -2.13%)。由于穆迪在债券评级上的糟糕判断导致了危机，投资者们感到恐慌，股票价格从历史最高点下跌了约 80%。</p>
<p>当每个人都感到恐惧时，巴菲特却在为伯克希尔哈撒韦购买穆迪的股票，现在他是该股票的最大股东。自 2011 年初以来，穆迪的股票上涨了近 20 倍，成为巴菲特 21 世纪最好的投资之一。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png"/></p>
<p>MCO 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts</p>
<h2>采取长期视角</h2>
<p>巴菲特始终主张投资者应该采取长期视角。为了说明这一点，他总是建议一个假想的场景。假设股市将在接下来的 10 年内关闭，这意味着在十年内没有人可以买卖他们的投资组合。你还会想要你当前的投资组合配置吗？如果不想，你可能过于关注短期。巴菲特说，如果你不想拥有一只股票 10 年，你就不应该在 10 分钟内拥有它。</p>
<p>这一建议可以帮助你在熊市期间放宽心态，尽管经历可能很痛苦，但通常只会持续不到一年。如果你的投资组合时间跨度为十年或更长，熊市就会变得更容易承受。最终，股价将与基础企业的盈利能力趋于一致。</p>
<p>采取长期视角，保持逆向思维，把股票视为企业的所有权，而不是屏幕上的曲线。运用这条巴菲特的建议，你将在未来的任何熊市中表现良好。</p>

伯克希尔哈撒韦-A

伯克希尔哈撒韦-B

<p>沃伦·巴菲特在近期市场波动中提供了应对熊市的建议。他强调，熊市提供了以折扣价格购买股票的机会，鼓励投资者将股票视为企业的所有权份额。巴菲特建议在他人恐惧时要贪婪，强调在市场下跌时投资可以带来显著收益的潜力。他还强调了长期视角的重要性，建议投资者应准备至少持有股票十年。遵循这些原则可以帮助投资者在艰难的市场环境中蓬勃发展</p>

<p>Market volatility is back. After two straight years of up markets -- 2023 and 2024 were some of the best years in the <strong>S&amp;P 500'</strong> s history -- 2025 has brought back the pain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场波动再次回归。在经历了连续两年的上涨市场——2023 年和 2024 年是 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 历史上最好的年份之一——2025 年带来了痛苦。</p>
</div><p>While the S&amp;P 500 index has not officially fallen 20%, therefore triggering a bear market declaration, it is in its sharpest drawdown since 2022 and has gone through some wild gyrations in recent weeks due to tariff mayhem. The volatility index has shot up 100% year to date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然标准普尔 500 指数尚未正式下跌 20%，因此未触发熊市声明，但它正经历自 2022 年以来最剧烈的回撤，并且由于关税混乱，最近几周经历了一些剧烈的波动。波动率指数年初至今上涨了 100%。</p>
</div><p>When prices are falling, it can induce stress and make you believe now is the time to aggressively trade your portfolio. Warren Buffett disagrees with this notion. The best investor has lived through a dozen market downturns, understanding better than anyone that contrarian thinking and a long-term mindset is how you win in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当价格下跌时，这可能会引发压力，让你相信现在是积极交易投资组合的时机。沃伦·巴菲特对此观点持不同意见。这位最佳投资者经历了十几次市场下跌，比任何人都更明白，逆向思维和长期心态才是赢得股市的关键。</p>
</div><p>Here are three pieces of advice Warren Buffett has when dealing with bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是沃伦·巴菲特在应对熊市时的三条建议。</p>
</div><h2>Bear markets are your friend</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>熊市是你的朋友</h2>
</div><p>In a bear market, the price of the stock market is falling. That has nothing to do with the <em>value</em> of the companies listed in the United States, though. Warren Buffett recommends viewing stocks as a contract that gives you an ownership stake in a business. Or, if you buy an S&amp;P 500 index fund, you are buying a slice of the future earnings power of American businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在熊市中，股市价格正在下跌。这与美国上市公司的_价值_无关。沃伦·巴菲特建议将股票视为一种合同，赋予你对企业的所有权。如果你购买标准普尔 500 指数基金，你就是在购买美国企业未来盈利能力的一部分。</p>
</div><p>Think of it like buying goods at a retailer or supermarket. Would you rather your grocery bill be $200 or $100, assuming it is the exact same goods? Everyone would choose $100; it is illogical to think otherwise. Look at the stock market the same way. If the S&amp;P 500 index falls 50% from all-time highs, you are able to purchase collective ownership of an American business at a 50% discount, which you should be enthusiastic about doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>把它想象成在零售商或超市购买商品。假设商品完全相同，你更愿意让你的购物账单是 200 美元还是 100 美元？每个人都会选择 100 美元；否则的想法是不合逻辑的。以同样的方式看待股市。如果标准普尔 500 指数从历史最高点下跌 50%，你就能够以 50% 的折扣购买美国企业的集体所有权，这应该让你感到兴奋。</p>
</div><p>This is why Warren Buffett says bear markets are an investor's best friend. People who purchase stocks, especially younger people, are able to do so at a significant discount to historical prices in a bear market. Young investors should cheer falling stock prices because it gives them an opportunity to buy an ownership stake in a business at a cheaper price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是为什么沃伦·巴菲特说熊市是投资者最好的朋友。购买股票的人，尤其是年轻人，能够以显著低于历史价格的折扣进行购买。年轻投资者应该为股价下跌而欢呼，因为这给他们提供了以更低价格购买企业所有权的机会。</p>
</div><h2>Be greedy when others are fearful</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>当别人恐惧时要贪婪</h2>
</div><p>Cheering about falling stock prices relates to another piece of Warren Buffett's advice and perhaps his most famous adage: Be greedy when others are fearful. Falling stock prices occur when people are more afraid, thinking of the short term and following headlines, looking for signals to buy or sell. At this moment, Buffett believes the best investors act with a contrarian mindset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对股价下跌感到欢呼与沃伦·巴菲特的另一条建议有关，也许是他最著名的格言：当别人恐惧时要贪婪。股价下跌发生在当人们更加害怕时，他们关注短期并跟随头条新闻，寻找买入或卖出的信号。在这个时刻，巴菲特认为最佳投资者会采取逆向思维。</p>
</div><p>When others are fearful, and the price of a stock you like has fallen 90%, it can pay handsomely to lean in when others are scattering for the exits. For example, we can look at Buffett's investment in <strong>Moody's</strong>(MCO -2.19%) at his investment company <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%)(BRK.B -2.13%) in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008. Investors were scared out of their minds because of Moody's poor judgement in bond ratings, which led to the crisis, and the stock fell around 80% from all-time highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当其他人感到恐惧，而你喜欢的股票价格下跌 90% 时，趁其他人纷纷逃离时加大投资可能会带来丰厚的回报。例如，我们可以看看巴菲特在 2008 年大萧条后对 <strong>穆迪</strong>(MCO -2.19%) 的投资，他的投资公司 <strong>伯克希尔哈撒韦</strong>(BRK.A -2.66%)(BRK.B -2.13%)。由于穆迪在债券评级上的糟糕判断导致了危机，投资者们感到恐慌，股票价格从历史最高点下跌了约 80%。</p>
</div><p>While everyone was scared, Buffett was buying up shares of Moody's for Berkshire Hathaway and is now the largest shareholder of the stock. Since the beginning of 2011, shares of Moody's are up close to 20x, making it one of Buffett's best investments of the 21st century.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当每个人都感到恐惧时，巴菲特却在为伯克希尔哈撒韦购买穆迪的股票，现在他是该股票的最大股东。自 2011 年初以来，穆迪的股票上涨了近 20 倍，成为巴菲特 21 世纪最好的投资之一。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/f7534b2b694d8ac2af6d585e7dfe8c5d.png"/></p>
<p>MCO Total Return Level data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MCO 总回报水平数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Take the long view</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>采取长期视角</h2>
</div><p>Buffett consistently espouses that investors should take the long view. To illustrate this point, he always recommends an imaginary scenario. Say the stock market was going to close for the next 10 years, meaning nobody could buy or sell anything from their portfolio for a decade. Would you still want your current portfolio allocation? If not, you may be too short-term focused. Buffett says if you don't want to own a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't own it for 10 minutes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特始终主张投资者应该采取长期视角。为了说明这一点，他总是建议一个假想的场景。假设股市将在接下来的 10 年内关闭，这意味着在十年内没有人可以买卖他们的投资组合。你还会想要你当前的投资组合配置吗？如果不想，你可能过于关注短期。巴菲特说，如果你不想拥有一只股票 10 年，你就不应该在 10 分钟内拥有它。</p>
</div><p>This advice can help you zoom out during bear markets, which can be painful to experience but usually only last less than a year. If you have a time horizon of a decade or longer for your portfolio, it makes a bear market much easier to stomach. Eventually, stock prices will converge with the earnings power of the underlying businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一建议可以帮助你在熊市期间放宽心态，尽管经历可能很痛苦，但通常只会持续不到一年。如果你的投资组合时间跨度为十年或更长，熊市就会变得更容易承受。最终，股价将与基础企业的盈利能力趋于一致。</p>
</div><p>Take the long view, have a contrarian mindset, and think of stocks like ownership stakes in businesses instead of squiggly lines on a screen. Use this Buffett advice, and you will do fine in any future bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>采取长期视角，保持逆向思维，把股票视为企业的所有权，而不是屏幕上的曲线。运用这条巴菲特的建议，你将在未来的任何熊市中表现良好。</p>
</div>

Worried About a Bear Market? Here's What Warren Buffett Says to Do

- 2025 年市场波动加剧，S&P 500 指数经历剧烈波动。  
- 沃伦·巴菲特建议在熊市中以长期视角投资，视股票为企业的所有权。  
- 他强调在他人恐惧时应贪婪，利用低价买入优质股票。  

担心熊市？看看沃伦·巴菲特建议的应对措施