<p>出于多种原因，国家在 2025 年关注的最大经济指标之一是房地产市场。在高抵押贷款利率和更高房价的情况下，人们担心今年对购房者来说可能比过去几年更为艰难，尽管这听起来难以置信。</p>
<ul>
<li>关于 2025 年房地产市场的表现，确实存在疑问。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>我们希望看到更多房源上市，从而整体降低价格。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>根据贸易政策，通货膨胀的下降可能导致抵押贷款利率的降低。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>您在退休方面是领先还是落后？SmartAsset 的免费工具可以在几分钟内将您与财务顾问匹配，帮助您今天回答这个问题。每位顾问都经过严格审查，必须以您的最佳利益为重。不要再浪费时间；点击这里开始吧。(赞助商)</li>
</ul>
<p>当然，要理解 2025 年是否会导致房地产泡沫，您必须考虑多个观点，通常这些观点来自于很少达成一致的专家。好消息是，专家们似乎并不预测崩盘，但这仍然引发了一个问题：您是否应该在 2025 年买房，还是等待。</p>
<h2>定义房地产泡沫或崩盘</h2>
<p>如果您试图理解如何量化房地产泡沫或房地产市场崩盘，询问这究竟意味着什么是可以的。公平地说，这也是一个专家们并不总是高度一致的领域。也就是说，泡沫是指快速价格上涨是由大量投机或轻松获得信贷驱动的任何情况，就像 2008 年之前和大萧条期间的情况一样。</p>
<p>房地产崩盘则是泡沫的对立面，当房价迅速下跌，通常是在泡沫期之后。这可能是由于利率上升或其他经济因素，如失业率上升，导致购房被推迟，直到经济和就业市场更加稳定。</p>
<h2>2025 年的房地产市场</h2>
<h3>房屋供应短缺</h3>
<p>根据 Realtor.com 的见解，美国确实存在住房短缺，缺口在 230 万到 650 万套房屋之间。根据全国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 的说法，考虑到这一点，“供应显然不足”。</p>
<p>因此，即使存在住房短缺且需求依然旺盛，这也直接导致了房价不会崩盘的想法。不过，这并没有帮助那些希望崩盘以便能够在一生中买得起人人渴望的房子的人。</p>
<h3>当前市场快照</h3>
<p>基于我们对住房供应短缺的了解，这直接引发了关于房价为何稳步上涨的问题。根据一份报告，2025 年，我们看到中位数转售价格上涨 3.8%，达到 398,400 美元，这延续了 20 年的增长期。然而，这比 2024 年中位数价格上涨 5.2% 有所放缓，这确实表明市场略微降温。</p>
<p>尽管如此，2024 年至 2025 年间，住房库存上升了 17%，目前市场上可供买家的房屋供应为 3.5 个月。然而，现有房屋销售处于 30 年来的低点，这表明增长缓慢，但并不算泡沫或崩盘。相反，这更像是房地产市场的中间状态。</p>
<p>或许最大的考虑是 2025 年利率会发生什么。人们希望利率在过去几年中可能已经达到峰值，但截至 2025 年 4 月 14 日，30 年固定利率约为 6.9%，没有迹象表明近期会有显著下降。</p>
<h2>预测 2025 年的房地产市场</h2>
<p>正如人们所料，预测房地产市场有点像是一场有根据的猜测游戏。您可以做出专家预测，但市场随时可能因冲突、关税或市场崩盘而改变。</p>
<h3>2025 年市场会崩盘吗？</h3>
<p>将注意力转向 NAR 的 Lawrence Yun，他重申 2025 年房地产市场崩盘的可能性不大。“抵押贷款利率急剧上升至约 9%，加上显著的净失业，可能会对房地产市场施加严重压力。然而，这两种情况都不太可能发生，因此市场崩盘的可能性不大。”</p>
<p>在这种情况下，Yun 并不孤单。其他房地产专家也持类似观点，包括 Realtor.com 的首席经济学家 Danielle Hale。她也认为，抵押贷款利率在 2025 年可能会下降，这将使住房更加负担得起，即使房价不会大幅下跌。</p>
<p>进一步支持 2025 年房地产市场将保持相对理智的观点是，房利美仅预测 2025 年房价上涨 3.5%，低于 2024 年，而 NAR 仅预测 2-3% 的增长。根据这些预测，可以说 2025 年市场将降温，但远远不至于崩盘。</p>
<h3>2025 年房地产市场会复苏吗？</h3>
<p>专家们还在问的另一个问题是，2025 年是否会给我们带来惊喜，我们可能会看到房地产市场的复苏。要实现这一目标，上述提到的库存短缺需要显著减少。更多可供买家的库存将有助于缓解一些价格压力，这在某些情况下是积极的。</p>
<p>然而，2025 年任何复苏的最大挑战将是抵押贷款利率的下降。由于利率在过去几个月一直保持在 6.5% 以上，这似乎不太可能。不过，人们仍然希望如果通货膨胀压力继续减轻，美联储将再进行一两次降息，但考虑到新的关税政策，这现在是一个大问号。</p>
<p>根据专家的说法，最佳情况是抵押贷款利率降至 4% 到 5% 之间，这将有助于房地产市场恢复到 “正常” 状态，而不会产生显著的副作用。</p>
<h2>2025 年您应该买房还是等待？</h2>
<h3>现在买</h3>
<p>最终，关键问题是根据专家对 2025 年房市是否会出现泡沫或崩溃的预测，你应该购买还是等待。这个问题的简单答案是，像股市一样，准确把握房市时机几乎是不可能的，因此你必须在任何时候做出适合自己的选择。希望改善的库存供应能够为购房提供支持。</p>
<h3>等待</h3>
<p>然而，利率下降的潜力可能使市场看到低于 6% 的数字，这使得数百万人的处境是等待美联储的下一步行动。仅仅一个百分点的支付差异在 30 年的成本上就可能是数千美元，因此等待抵押贷款利率下降的理由值得考虑。</p>
<h3>其他考虑因素</h3>
<p>另一个额外的考虑因素是你所在的国家地区。像南佛罗里达这样的地区在过去几年中一直处于泡沫中，因此那里发生的事情并不适用于乡村堪萨斯。</p>
<p>另外，你还必须考虑总统政府的关税和其他政策变化将如何影响通货膨胀，如果日常商品的价格再次普遍上涨，这可能会减少整体住房需求。由于 2025 年 4 月初的当前不确定性，确实有理由在购买新房之前等待局势稳定。</p>
<p>这篇文章《住房泡沫还是崩溃？2025 年房价的下一步是什么》最早出现在 24/7 Wall St.上。</p>

AOMR

<p>住房市场是 2025 年的一个关键经济指标，高抵押贷款利率和房价引发了买家的担忧。专家预测将出现 230 万到 650 万套房屋的短缺，这可能会阻止价格崩溃，尽管价格增长略有降温。预计中位数转售价格将上涨 3.8%，达到 398,400 美元。目前库存上升了 17%，但现有房屋销售处于 30 年来的低点。预测表明市场崩溃的可能性不大，但利率仍然是一个重要因素</p>

<p>For many reasons, one of the biggest economic indicators the country is looking at in 2025 is the housing market. Between high mortgage rates and even higher home prices, there is a concern that this year could be tougher for home buyers than the previous few years, as hard as that would be to believe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>出于多种原因，国家在 2025 年关注的最大经济指标之一是房地产市场。在高抵押贷款利率和更高房价的情况下，人们担心今年对购房者来说可能比过去几年更为艰难，尽管这听起来难以置信。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>There is a definite question of how the housing market will perform in 2025.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>关于 2025 年房地产市场的表现，确实存在疑问。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>We hope to see more inventory come on the market, reducing pricing overall.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>我们希望看到更多房源上市，从而整体降低价格。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li>Depending on trade policies, a decrease in inflation could lead to a drop in mortgage interest rates.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>根据贸易政策，通货膨胀的下降可能导致抵押贷款利率的降低。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
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</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>您在退休方面是领先还是落后？SmartAsset 的免费工具可以在几分钟内将您与财务顾问匹配，帮助您今天回答这个问题。每位顾问都经过严格审查，必须以您的最佳利益为重。不要再浪费时间；点击这里开始吧。(赞助商)</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Of course, to understand whether 2025 will lead to a housing bubble, you have to consider multiple points of view, often from experts who rarely agree. The good news is that experts don’t seem to predict a crash, but it still begs the question of whether or not you should buy a home in 2025 or wait.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，要理解 2025 年是否会导致房地产泡沫，您必须考虑多个观点，通常这些观点来自于很少达成一致的专家。好消息是，专家们似乎并不预测崩盘，但这仍然引发了一个问题：您是否应该在 2025 年买房，还是等待。</p>
</div><h2>Defining A Housing Bubble Or Bust</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定义房地产泡沫或崩盘</h2>
</div><p>If you’re trying to understand how to quantify a housing bubble or a housing market bust, it’s okay to ask questions about what this exactly would mean. It’s also fair to say this is another area where experts aren’t always extremely aligned. This said, a bubble would be any instance in which rapid price increases are driven by heavy speculation or easy access to credit, as was the case pre-2008 and during the Great Recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果您试图理解如何量化房地产泡沫或房地产市场崩盘，询问这究竟意味着什么是可以的。公平地说，这也是一个专家们并不总是高度一致的领域。也就是说，泡沫是指快速价格上涨是由大量投机或轻松获得信贷驱动的任何情况，就像 2008 年之前和大萧条期间的情况一样。</p>
</div><p>A housing bust would be the opposite of a bubble, when home prices rapidly fall, often following a bubble period. This could result from rising interest rates or other economic factors like increased unemployment, where buying a home is pushed to the back burner until a more stable economy and job market prevail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产崩盘则是泡沫的对立面，当房价迅速下跌，通常是在泡沫期之后。这可能是由于利率上升或其他经济因素，如失业率上升，导致购房被推迟，直到经济和就业市场更加稳定。</p>
</div><h2>The Housing Market In 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的房地产市场</h2>
</div><h3>Housing Supply Shortage</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>房屋供应短缺</h3>
</div><p>According to insights from Realtor.com, there is a definite housing shortage in the United States, with at least 2.3 million to 6.5 million homes. Given this, there is “simply not enough supply,” according to Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Realtor.com 的见解，美国确实存在住房短缺，缺口在 230 万到 650 万套房屋之间。根据全国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家 Lawrence Yun 的说法，考虑到这一点，“供应显然不足”。</p>
</div><p>As a result, even if there is a housing shortage and still high demand, it leads directly to the idea that housing prices won’t crash. Still, this doesn’t help those hoping for a crash to finally be able to afford a home everyone wants in their lifetime.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，即使存在住房短缺且需求依然旺盛，这也直接导致了房价不会崩盘的想法。不过，这并没有帮助那些希望崩盘以便能够在一生中买得起人人渴望的房子的人。</p>
</div><h3>Current Market Snapshot</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>当前市场快照</h3>
</div><p>Building on what we know about the housing supply shortage, it directly leads to questions about why home prices have steadily increased. According to one report, in 2025, we’re seeing a 3.8% increase in median resale prices at $398,400, which continues a 20-year growth period. However, this is somewhat slower than 2024’s median price increase of 5.2%, which does indicate the market has cooled down slightly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于我们对住房供应短缺的了解，这直接引发了关于房价为何稳步上涨的问题。根据一份报告，2025 年，我们看到中位数转售价格上涨 3.8%，达到 398,400 美元，这延续了 20 年的增长期。然而，这比 2024 年中位数价格上涨 5.2% 有所放缓，这确实表明市场略微降温。</p>
</div><p>Still, housing inventory was up 17% between 2024 and 2025, and there is a 3.5-month supply of homes available for buyers today. However, existing home sales are at a 30-year low, which indicates sluggish growth but not quite what anyone would call a bubble or bust. Instead, this is more of a middle ground for the housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，2024 年至 2025 年间，住房库存上升了 17%，目前市场上可供买家的房屋供应为 3.5 个月。然而，现有房屋销售处于 30 年来的低点，这表明增长缓慢，但并不算泡沫或崩盘。相反，这更像是房地产市场的中间状态。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the biggest consideration is what happens with interest rates in 2025. The hope was that rates may have peaked over the past few years, but with a 30-year fixed rate of around 6.9% as of April 14, 2025, there are no signs of a significant drop coming anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许最大的考虑是 2025 年利率会发生什么。人们希望利率在过去几年中可能已经达到峰值，但截至 2025 年 4 月 14 日，30 年固定利率约为 6.9%，没有迹象表明近期会有显著下降。</p>
</div><h2>Predicting Housing For 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>预测 2025 年的房地产市场</h2>
</div><p>As one might suspect, predicting the housing market is a bit of an educated guessing game. You can make expert predictions, but the market is one conflict, tariff, or market crash away from changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如人们所料，预测房地产市场有点像是一场有根据的猜测游戏。您可以做出专家预测，但市场随时可能因冲突、关税或市场崩盘而改变。</p>
</div><h3>Will The Market Crash in 2025?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2025 年市场会崩盘吗？</h3>
</div><p>Turning attention to Lawrence Yun from the NAR, he reiterates that a housing market crash in 2025 is unlikely. “A sharp rise in mortgage rates to around 9 percent, combined with significant net job losses, could put severe pressure on the housing market. However, both scenarios are unlikely, making a market crash unlikely.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>将注意力转向 NAR 的 Lawrence Yun，他重申 2025 年房地产市场崩盘的可能性不大。“抵押贷款利率急剧上升至约 9%，加上显著的净失业，可能会对房地产市场施加严重压力。然而，这两种情况都不太可能发生，因此市场崩盘的可能性不大。”</p>
</div><p>In instances like this, Yun isn’t alone. Other real estate experts are lining up with similar thinking, including Danielle Hale, the chief economist of Realtor.com. She, too, believes that mortgage rates are likely to drop in 2025, which would, in turn, make housing more affordable even if housing prices don’t drop dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情况下，Yun 并不孤单。其他房地产专家也持类似观点，包括 Realtor.com 的首席经济学家 Danielle Hale。她也认为，抵押贷款利率在 2025 年可能会下降，这将使住房更加负担得起，即使房价不会大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Adding fuel to the idea that the housing market in 2025 is going to stay somewhat sane is that Fannie Mae only predicts a 3.5% increase in home pricing in 2025, a decrease from 2024, while the NAR only predicts a 2-3% increase. With these predictions, it’s okay to say there will be a cooling market in 2025, but far, far short of anything that would look like a bust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进一步支持 2025 年房地产市场将保持相对理智的观点是，房利美仅预测 2025 年房价上涨 3.5%，低于 2024 年，而 NAR 仅预测 2-3% 的增长。根据这些预测，可以说 2025 年市场将降温，但远远不至于崩盘。</p>
</div><h3>Housing Market Recovery In 2025?</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>2025 年房地产市场会复苏吗？</h3>
</div><p>Another question being asked by experts is whether or not 2025 could surprise us, and we could see a housing market recovery in 2025. For that to happen, the inventory shortage mentioned above would need to decrease significantly. The more available inventory for buyers would help ease some of the pricing pressure, which would be a positive in some cases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>专家们还在问的另一个问题是，2025 年是否会给我们带来惊喜，我们可能会看到房地产市场的复苏。要实现这一目标，上述提到的库存短缺需要显著减少。更多可供买家的库存将有助于缓解一些价格压力，这在某些情况下是积极的。</p>
</div><p>However, the biggest challenge to any recovery in 2025 would be if mortgage interest rates fall. As rates have been stuck over 6.5% for the last few months, this does not seem very likely. Still, there is hope the Federal Reserve will issue another cut or two to help reduce interest rates if inflation pressures continue to decrease, but it’s now a big if in light of new tariff policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，2025 年任何复苏的最大挑战将是抵押贷款利率的下降。由于利率在过去几个月一直保持在 6.5% 以上，这似乎不太可能。不过，人们仍然希望如果通货膨胀压力继续减轻，美联储将再进行一两次降息，但考虑到新的关税政策，这现在是一个大问号。</p>
</div><p>According to experts, the best scenario would be for mortgage rates to drop between 4 and 5%, which would help the housing market return to “normal ” without significant side effects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据专家的说法，最佳情况是抵押贷款利率降至 4% 到 5% 之间，这将有助于房地产市场恢复到 “正常” 状态，而不会产生显著的副作用。</p>
</div><h2>Should You Buy or Wait In 2025?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年您应该买房还是等待？</h2>
</div><h3>Buy Now</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>现在买</h3>
</div><p>Ultimately, the big question is whether you should buy or wait in 2025 based on whether experts predict a housing bubble or a burst. The easy answer to this question is that timing the housing market, like the stock market, is next to impossible, so you must do what’s right for you at any given time. The hope is that improving inventory supplies will help to make the case for buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最终，关键问题是根据专家对 2025 年房市是否会出现泡沫或崩溃的预测，你应该购买还是等待。这个问题的简单答案是，像股市一样，准确把握房市时机几乎是不可能的，因此你必须在任何时候做出适合自己的选择。希望改善的库存供应能够为购房提供支持。</p>
</div><h3>Wait</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>等待</h3>
</div><p>However, the potential of an interest rate drop that would allow the market to see a number below 6% puts millions in a position of waiting to see what the Federal Reserve does next. The payment difference with just a single percentage point is thousands of dollars over the cost of 30 years, so the argument for waiting for a mortgage rate drop is well worth considering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，利率下降的潜力可能使市场看到低于 6% 的数字，这使得数百万人的处境是等待美联储的下一步行动。仅仅一个百分点的支付差异在 30 年的成本上就可能是数千美元，因此等待抵押贷款利率下降的理由值得考虑。</p>
</div><h3>Other Considerations</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>其他考虑因素</h3>
</div><p>One additional consideration is where you are in the country. Areas like South Florida have been in a bubble for the last few years, so what happens there doesn’t apply to rural Kansas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个额外的考虑因素是你所在的国家地区。像南佛罗里达这样的地区在过去几年中一直处于泡沫中，因此那里发生的事情并不适用于乡村堪萨斯。</p>
</div><p>Separately, you also have to consider how tariffs and other policy changes from the presidential administration will affect inflation, which could reduce overall housing demand if prices start to increase across the board again on everyday goods. Due to the current uncertainty in early April 2025, it certainly makes the case to wait for things to settle down before buying a new home.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另外，你还必须考虑总统政府的关税和其他政策变化将如何影响通货膨胀，如果日常商品的价格再次普遍上涨，这可能会减少整体住房需求。由于 2025 年 4 月初的当前不确定性，确实有理由在购买新房之前等待局势稳定。</p>
</div><p>The post Housing Bubble or Bust? What’s Next for Home Prices in 2025 appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇文章《住房泡沫还是崩溃？2025 年房价的下一步是什么》最早出现在 24/7 Wall St.上。</p>
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房地产泡沫还是市场崩盘？2025 年房价将何去何从