<p><strong>开市客</strong>（COST 2.65%）的股票近年来为投资者带来了可观的回报。该股票在 2023 年和 2024 年稳步上涨，但在大盘抛售中经历了回调，目前接近修正区间。</p>
<p>事实上，开市客已经发展成为全球最成功的零售商之一，其不断上涨的股价可能反映了其在市场中的强大地位。对于其股东来说，问题是：这只零售股票能否在明年恢复，还是会继续遭遇抛售？</p>
<h2>开市客股票的状态</h2>
<p>如前所述，开市客股票交易在修正区间，曾在最近的回调前达到超过$1,078 的盘中高点。可以说，这只股票的受欢迎程度归功于公司的一贯执行和巨大的增长潜力。</p>
<p>其在全球的 897 个仓库网络持续实现稳定的收入增长和超过 90% 的会员续费率。</p>
<p>此外，公司计划在 2025 财年开设 29 个新地点。对投资者来说，好消息是，即使在美国（占其 617 个地点），也并未接近饱和点。美国许多中型城市没有开市客，许多主要城市没有商业中心，留有进一步扩展的广阔空间。</p>
<p>此外，开市客成功地将其商业模式适应于外国市场，而像 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>家得宝</strong> 这样的零售商在这方面遇到了困难。如果当前趋势持续，其扩展可能会持续数十年。</p>
<h2>评估开市客的成功</h2>
<p>尽管如此，开市客的股东面临一个关键挑战——公司的持续成功。过去五年中，其股票上涨超过 220%，远远超过 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的表现。</p>
<p>由于这一业绩记录，它长期以来一直享有溢价估值，自 2019 年以来其市盈率保持在 30 以上。它似乎也违背了沃伦·巴菲特的预期，因为他的团队在 2020 年出售了长期持有的开市客股份，即使巴菲特的合作伙伴查理·芒格在 2023 年去世之前仍然在开市客的董事会中占有一席之地。</p>
<p>尽管如此，其收益倍数在年初飙升至 60 以上，创下该指标的历史新高。考虑到这一点，目前 57 的市盈率可能看起来偏高，即使对于像开市客这样成功的股票来说。</p>
<p>投资者可能还会问，其财务状况是否能证明如此高的收益倍数。在 2025 财年的前六个月，公司实现了近 1260 亿美元的收入，比 2024 财年同期增长了 8%。其中，包括了同期可比销售增长 6%。</p>
<p>在覆盖成本和费用后，2025 财年前两个季度的净收入略低于 36 亿美元，同比增长 8%。此外，未来的趋势也指向类似的增长，分析师预测明年收入将增长 8%。</p>
<p>虽然这意味着其持续增长应该会继续，但投资者可能有理由质疑这是否足以证明其 57 的市盈率。如此水平意味着在任何坏消息的暗示下，它可能会经历显著的倍数压缩，使得该股票在短期内的表现变得不确定。</p>
<h2>开市客的股票在一年后会如何？</h2>
<p>鉴于开市客的高估值，未来一年它很可能会跑输指数。</p>
<p>诚然，未来一年其股票表现可能会发生任何变化。开市客在零售领域的成功应该对股票的长期表现有利，长期股东有充分理由持有其股份。</p>
<p>不过，估值很重要，其高市盈率增加了公司超越分析师和投资者预期的压力。由于收入增长停滞在个位数，开市客的持续性可能不足以证明其高估值的合理性。</p>
<p>在这样的挑战下，投资者可能应该等待更低的市盈率再增加开市客的股份。</p>

开市客

<p>Costco 的股票经历了显著的回报，但在最近的回调后，目前处于修正区间。尽管其市场地位强劲且有扩张计划，但股票高达 57 的市盈率引发了对其估值的担忧。分析师预测收入增长为 8%，但由于增长仅在个位数，投资者可能需要等待更低的市盈率再考虑增持股票。总体而言，Costco 的股票在未来一年可能会表现不及指数，尽管长期前景依然积极</p>

<p><strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>'s (COST 2.65%) stock has earned considerable returns for its investors in recent years. The stock marched steadily higher in 2023 and 2024 but has endured a pullback amid the sell-off in the broad market and is now near correction territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>开市客</strong>（COST 2.65%）的股票近年来为投资者带来了可观的回报。该股票在 2023 年和 2024 年稳步上涨，但在大盘抛售中经历了回调，目前接近修正区间。</p>
</div><p>Indeed, Costco has evolved into one of the world's most successful retailers, and its rising stock price likely reflects its strong position in the marketplace. The question for its shareholders is: Can the retail stock recover in the next year, or is it in for further selling?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事实上，开市客已经发展成为全球最成功的零售商之一，其不断上涨的股价可能反映了其在市场中的强大地位。对于其股东来说，问题是：这只零售股票能否在明年恢复，还是会继续遭遇抛售？</p>
</div><h2>The state of Costco's stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>开市客股票的状态</h2>
</div><p>As mentioned before, Costco stock trades in correction territory, peaking at an intraday high of more than $1,078 per share before its recent pullback. One can likely credit the stock's popularity to the company's consistent execution and tremendous growth runway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，开市客股票交易在修正区间，曾在最近的回调前达到超过$1,078 的盘中高点。可以说，这只股票的受欢迎程度归功于公司的一贯执行和巨大的增长潜力。</p>
</div><p>Its network of 897 warehouses globally continues to post steady revenue growth and membership renewal rates in excess of 90%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其在全球的 897 个仓库网络持续实现稳定的收入增长和超过 90% 的会员续费率。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the company has plans for 29 new locations in fiscal 2025. The good news for investors is that it is not near a saturation point, even in the U.S., which accounts for 617 of its locations. Many midsize metropolitan areas in the U.S. do not have a Costco, and many major metros do not have a business center, leaving ample room for further U.S. expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，公司计划在 2025 财年开设 29 个新地点。对投资者来说，好消息是，即使在美国（占其 617 个地点），也并未接近饱和点。美国许多中型城市没有开市客，许多主要城市没有商业中心，留有进一步扩展的广阔空间。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Costco has successfully adapted its business model to foreign markets, an area where retailers like <strong>Walmart</strong> and <strong>Home Depot</strong> struggled. Assuming the current trends continue, its expansion could go on for decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，开市客成功地将其商业模式适应于外国市场，而像 <strong>沃尔玛</strong> 和 <strong>家得宝</strong> 这样的零售商在这方面遇到了困难。如果当前趋势持续，其扩展可能会持续数十年。</p>
</div><h2>Assessing Costco's successes</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>评估开市客的成功</h2>
</div><p>Nonetheless, Costco's shareholders face a key challenge -- the company's enduring success. Its stock has risen more than 220% over the last five years, far outpacing the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>'s performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，开市客的股东面临一个关键挑战——公司的持续成功。过去五年中，其股票上涨超过 220%，远远超过 <strong>标准普尔 500 指数</strong> 的表现。</p>
</div><p>Due to that track record, it has long commanded a premium valuation, with its P/E ratio staying above 30 since 2019. It also seems to have defied Warren Buffett's expectations as his team at <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong> sold its long-held Costco position in 2020, even as Buffett's partner Charlie Munger maintained a seat on Costco's board until he passed away in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于这一业绩记录，它长期以来一直享有溢价估值，自 2019 年以来其市盈率保持在 30 以上。它似乎也违背了沃伦·巴菲特的预期，因为他的团队在 2020 年出售了长期持有的开市客股份，即使巴菲特的合作伙伴查理·芒格在 2023 年去世之前仍然在开市客的董事会中占有一席之地。</p>
</div><p>Still, its earnings multiple surged above 60 early in the year, an all-time high for this metric. Knowing that, the current P/E ratio of 57 may seem elevated, even for a successful stock such as Costco.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，其收益倍数在年初飙升至 60 以上，创下该指标的历史新高。考虑到这一点，目前 57 的市盈率可能看起来偏高，即使对于像开市客这样成功的股票来说。</p>
</div><p>Investors may also ask whether its financials justify such an earnings multiple. In the first six months of fiscal 2025, the company generated almost $126 billion in revenue, an 8% increase compared to the same period in fiscal 2024. That included a 6% increase in comparable sales over the same time frame.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者可能还会问，其财务状况是否能证明如此高的收益倍数。在 2025 财年的前六个月，公司实现了近 1260 亿美元的收入，比 2024 财年同期增长了 8%。其中，包括了同期可比销售增长 6%。</p>
</div><p>After covering its costs and expenses, net income for the first two quarters of fiscal 2025 was just under $3.6 billion, rising 8% from year-ago levels. Additionally, the future points to more of the same, as analysts forecast 8% revenue growth in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在覆盖成本和费用后，2025 财年前两个季度的净收入略低于 36 亿美元，同比增长 8%。此外，未来的趋势也指向类似的增长，分析师预测明年收入将增长 8%。</p>
</div><p>While that means its consistent growth should continue, investors are likely right to question whether that justifies its 57 P/E ratio. Such levels mean it could experience significant multiple compression on any hint of bad news, making the stock's performance uncertain in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这意味着其持续增长应该会继续，但投资者可能有理由质疑这是否足以证明其 57 的市盈率。如此水平意味着在任何坏消息的暗示下，它可能会经历显著的倍数压缩，使得该股票在短期内的表现变得不确定。</p>
</div><h2>Where will Costco stock be in one year?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>开市客的股票在一年后会如何？</h2>
</div><p>Given Costco's high valuation, it will more than likely underperform the indexes over the next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鉴于开市客的高估值，未来一年它很可能会跑输指数。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, anything can happen with its stock performance over the next year. Costco's success in retailing should bode well for the stock in the long term, and longtime shareholders have good reason to hold their shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>诚然，未来一年其股票表现可能会发生任何变化。开市客在零售领域的成功应该对股票的长期表现有利，长期股东有充分理由持有其股份。</p>
</div><p>Still, valuations matter, and its high P/E ratio increases pressure on the company to beat analyst and investor expectations. With revenue growth stuck in the single digits, Costco's consistency may not be enough to justify its lofty valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，估值很重要，其高市盈率增加了公司超越分析师和投资者预期的压力。由于收入增长停滞在个位数，开市客的持续性可能不足以证明其高估值的合理性。</p>
</div><p>Amid such challenges, investors should probably hold out for a much lower P/E ratio before adding more Costco shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这样的挑战下，投资者可能应该等待更低的市盈率再增加开市客的股份。</p>
</div>

一年后开市客的股票会处于什么位置？