<p>有好的股票，也有伟大的股票。然后还有改变人生的股票——像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong> 这样的股票，它们因公司革命性的产品和服务而飙升。然而，这样的股票少之又少。直到事后，通常也不清楚一家公司是否是游戏规则的改变者。</p>
<p>这种复杂的动态使得投资者在 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR 2.48%) 上做出决策变得困难。毫无疑问，它的业务有潜力成为革命性的。但持续的财务成功的机会是否足够强大，以至于值得在这个名字上进行重大长期投资？</p>
<h2>Archer Aviation 是什么？</h2>
<p>Archer 制造飞行出租车。公司的飞机——名为 Midnight——可以像直升机一样垂直起降，最多可搭载四名乘客，飞行距离可达 50 英里，从一个着陆区到另一个着陆区，包括穿越拥挤的城市和拥堵的街道。原本需要一个小时的车程，现在可以在几分钟内完成，且成本并没有大幅增加。</p>
<p>这些飞机也不会造成噪音困扰。电池驱动的 Midnight 足够安静，即使在密集的城市环境中也能进行接送。</p>
<p>几架 Midnight 飞机已经存在，并作为联邦航空管理局认证过程的一部分进行非商业测试飞行。该公司已经获得在美国作为航空公司运营的批准，最终认证也即将到来。</p>
<p>商业运营预计将在今年晚些时候开始，首先在阿布扎比，即阿联酋的首都，随后是纽约和洛杉矶等美国城市。该公司正在为洛杉矶国际机场及附近几个繁忙机场（如圣莫尼卡、好莱坞伯班克和长滩）建立空中出租车枢纽的基础。</p>
<p>该公司目前能够制造少量的 Midnight 飞机，但其在乔治亚州科温顿新建的工厂到 2030 年可能每年生产多达 650 架飞机。这将足以在全球多个主要城市建立庞大的机队，这种替代出行解决方案可能会受到欢迎。</p>
<h2>了解空中出租车市场的未来</h2>
<p>这是一个有趣的想法，但实际上是否有一个足够大的市场在等待接受这种交通方式？市场研究公司 iMARC 认为是的。它预测全球空中出租车业务到 2033 年的年均增长率为 14.5%，与 Spherical Insights 的前景一致。</p>
<p>Mordor Intelligence 将预测的年增长率数字更接近 23%，指出城市地区交通拥堵的加剧。而所有这些乐观论点的基础在于，特别是考虑到 Archer 与美国空军和 <strong>西南航空</strong> 的开发合作关系，都是有道理的。</p>
<p>不过，也存在风险和潜在的陷阱。首要的就是安全问题。<strong>霍尼韦尔</strong> 最近的一项调查显示，大多数常旅客至少会考虑乘坐空中出租车，但 65% 的受访者也表示，这种未经验证的解决方案的安全性是他们最大的担忧。那么，一次悲惨的空中出租车事故会大幅削弱这种兴趣吗？</p>
<p>还有可能是 Archer Aviation 不仅会继续亏损，而且在扩大生产能力的过程中，可能会更深地陷入亏损，超出实际对其飞机的需求。虽然这个想法是有价值的，技术看起来也能如预期那样运作，但这样的事情从未发生过。因此，市场性和财务可行性仍然存在疑问。</p>
<p>而且，过去也出现过其他独特的产品和服务，但它们的反响往往没有预期的热烈。还记得 3D 电视、<strong>GoPro</strong> 的运动相机、餐盒和 <strong>Groupon</strong> 的每日优惠券刚推出时的情景吗？事实证明，尽管早期炒作很高，但并没有足够的消费者愿意为这些产品或服务买单。</p>
<h2>应该怎么做</h2>
<p>那么，今天投资 Archer Aviation 会让你终身受益吗？至少有几家公司正在认真开发全电动空中出租车，已经有十年了。虽然这些初步努力没有转化为任何商业成果，但这个想法并没有消失，这一点很有意义。</p>
<p>像 Archer 这样的其他参与者也介入，将早期的工作与最近改进的技术结合起来，比如更高容量的锂电池和更轻的电动机。它们的持续改进最终可能使空中出租车作为一种商业模式完全可行，创造出一个十亿美元的市场，而真正准备好盈利的公司却寥寥无几。</p>
<p>然而，这个投资前景并不能与熟悉的、成熟的科技公司相提并论。就此而言，它甚至与 <strong>火箭实验室</strong> 或电动车制造商 <strong>蔚来汽车</strong> 这样的初创公司也不在同一层面，这些公司在使用成熟技术的行业中运营。这些公司面临着不同程度的潜在成功。</p>
<p>相反，Archer Aviation 看起来像是一种全有或全无的交易，这意味着它可能会完全失败或让你发大财——中间几乎没有可能性。这可能超出了大多数投资者愿意承担的风险。更不用说，你必须在这个风险上坐等至少几年，才能看到事情可能的发展。</p>
<p>换句话说，寻找其他更有前景的投资机会。</p>

ACHR

<p>Archer Aviation 正在开发飞行出租车，特别是 Midnight 飞机，能够在城市地区快速且安静地运输乘客。该公司已获得 FAA 批准，并计划很快开始商业运营。市场研究预测空中出租车行业将显著增长，但安全问题和财务可行性仍然是风险。尽管技术展现出潜力，但过去的创新有时未能引起消费者的兴趣。投资于 Archer 可能存在风险，但如果成功，未来可能带来可观的回报</p>

<p>There are good stocks, and there are great stocks. And then there are life-changing stocks -- those like <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Apple</strong>, both of which soared in response to those companies' revolutionary products and services. Yet, such stocks are few and far between. It's also not always clear a company is a game changer until well after the fact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有好的股票，也有伟大的股票。然后还有改变人生的股票——像 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 和 <strong>苹果</strong> 这样的股票，它们因公司革命性的产品和服务而飙升。然而，这样的股票少之又少。直到事后，通常也不清楚一家公司是否是游戏规则的改变者。</p>
</div><p>This complicated dynamic is making it tough for investors to make a decision about <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR 2.48%). There's no denying that its business has the potential to be revolutionary. But are the chances of sustained fiscal success strong enough to make a significant long-term bet on this name?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这种复杂的动态使得投资者在 <strong>Archer Aviation</strong>(ACHR 2.48%) 上做出决策变得困难。毫无疑问，它的业务有潜力成为革命性的。但持续的财务成功的机会是否足够强大，以至于值得在这个名字上进行重大长期投资？</p>
</div><h2>What is Archer Aviation?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Archer Aviation 是什么？</h2>
</div><p>Archer makes flying taxis. The company's aircraft -- called the Midnight -- can take off and land vertically like a helicopter, ferrying up to four passengers for up to 50 miles from one landing zone to another, including over a crowded city full of congested streets. A car ride that might take an hour can now be completed in a matter of minutes, and at not much greater cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Archer 制造飞行出租车。公司的飞机——名为 Midnight——可以像直升机一样垂直起降，最多可搭载四名乘客，飞行距离可达 50 英里，从一个着陆区到另一个着陆区，包括穿越拥挤的城市和拥堵的街道。原本需要一个小时的车程，现在可以在几分钟内完成，且成本并没有大幅增加。</p>
</div><p>These aircraft aren't a noise nuisance, either. The battery-powered Midnight is quiet enough to make it practical for drop-offs and pickups even in densely crowded urban settings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些飞机也不会造成噪音困扰。电池驱动的 Midnight 足够安静，即使在密集的城市环境中也能进行接送。</p>
</div><p>Several Midnight aircraft already exist and are making non-commercial test flights as part of the Federal Aviation Administration certification process. The company has already been approved to operate as an airline within the United States, and its final certification is forthcoming, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>几架 Midnight 飞机已经存在，并作为联邦航空管理局认证过程的一部分进行非商业测试飞行。该公司已经获得在美国作为航空公司运营的批准，最终认证也即将到来。</p>
</div><p>Commercial operations are likely to begin later this year, first in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, and with U.S. cities like New York and Los Angeles not far behind. The company is laying the groundwork for air taxi hubs at Los Angeles International Airport along with several busy nearby airports like the ones in Santa Monica, Hollywood Burbank, and Long Beach.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商业运营预计将在今年晚些时候开始，首先在阿布扎比，即阿联酋的首都，随后是纽约和洛杉矶等美国城市。该公司正在为洛杉矶国际机场及附近几个繁忙机场（如圣莫尼卡、好莱坞伯班克和长滩）建立空中出租车枢纽的基础。</p>
</div><p>The company is capable of manufacturing a handful of Midnight aircraft right now, but its recently completed factory in Covington, Georgia, could be producing up to 650 aircraft per year by 2030. That would be enough to build enormous fleets in several major cities all over the world, where an alternative mobility solution like this one may be well-received.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司目前能够制造少量的 Midnight 飞机，但其在乔治亚州科温顿新建的工厂到 2030 年可能每年生产多达 650 架飞机。这将足以在全球多个主要城市建立庞大的机队，这种替代出行解决方案可能会受到欢迎。</p>
</div><h2>Getting a read on the air taxi market's future</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>了解空中出租车市场的未来</h2>
</div><p>It's an interesting idea, but is there actually a meaningfully sized market waiting to embrace this sort of transportation? Market researcher iMARC thinks so. It's calling for annualized growth of 14.5% for the global air taxi business through 2033, agreeing with an outlook from Spherical Insights.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一个有趣的想法，但实际上是否有一个足够大的市场在等待接受这种交通方式？市场研究公司 iMARC 认为是的。它预测全球空中出租车业务到 2033 年的年均增长率为 14.5%，与 Spherical Insights 的前景一致。</p>
</div><p>Mordor Intelligence puts the predicted yearly growth figure closer to 23%, pointing to the increasing traffic congestion in metro areas. And the underpinnings of all these bullish arguments make enough sense, particularly in light of Archer's developmental partnerships with the U.S. Air Force and <strong>Southwest Airlines</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Mordor Intelligence 将预测的年增长率数字更接近 23%，指出城市地区交通拥堵的加剧。而所有这些乐观论点的基础在于，特别是考虑到 Archer 与美国空军和 <strong>西南航空</strong> 的开发合作关系，都是有道理的。</p>
</div><p>There are risks and potential pitfalls, though. Chief among them are safety concerns. A recent poll by <strong>Honeywell</strong> indicates that a majority of regular travelers would at least entertain the idea of riding in an air taxi, but 65% of those polled also suggested the safety of this unproven solution is their top concern. And so, would a single tragic air taxi accident dramatically crimp this interest?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不过，也存在风险和潜在的陷阱。首要的就是安全问题。<strong>霍尼韦尔</strong> 最近的一项调查显示，大多数常旅客至少会考虑乘坐空中出租车，但 65% 的受访者也表示，这种未经验证的解决方案的安全性是他们最大的担忧。那么，一次悲惨的空中出租车事故会大幅削弱这种兴趣吗？</p>
</div><p>There's also the possibility that Archer Aviation will not only continue losing money but also move deeper into the red as it expands its production capacity faster than actual demand for its aircraft. While the idea has merit, and the technology looks to work as billed, nothing like this has ever been done before. So, marketability and fiscal viability remain in question.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>还有可能是 Archer Aviation 不仅会继续亏损，而且在扩大生产能力的过程中，可能会更深地陷入亏损，超出实际对其飞机的需求。虽然这个想法是有价值的，技术看起来也能如预期那样运作，但这样的事情从未发生过。因此，市场性和财务可行性仍然存在疑问。</p>
</div><p>And other unique products and services have appeared in the past only to see them greeted with less enthusiasm than predicted. Remember 3D television sets, <strong>GoPro</strong>'s action cameras, meal kits, and <strong>Groupon</strong>'s daily deal coupons when they were new? It turns out that not enough consumers were interested enough to pay for these products or services despite the early hype.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，过去也出现过其他独特的产品和服务，但它们的反响往往没有预期的热烈。还记得 3D 电视、<strong>GoPro</strong> 的运动相机、餐盒和 <strong>Groupon</strong> 的每日优惠券刚推出时的情景吗？事实证明，尽管早期炒作很高，但并没有足够的消费者愿意为这些产品或服务买单。</p>
</div><h2>What to do</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>应该怎么做</h2>
</div><p>So, will an investment in Archer Aviation today set you up for life? All-electric air taxis -- by at least several companies -- have been in serious development for a decade now. While none of these initial efforts turned into anything commercial, it's telling that the idea never went away.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那么，今天投资 Archer Aviation 会让你终身受益吗？至少有几家公司正在认真开发全电动空中出租车，已经有十年了。虽然这些初步努力没有转化为任何商业成果，但这个想法并没有消失，这一点很有意义。</p>
</div><p>Other players like Archer stepped in to pair this early work with newer, recently improved technologies like higher-capacity lithium batteries and lighter motors. Their continued refinement could eventually make air taxis fully viable as a business, creating a billion-dollar market with very few revenue-ready companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>像 Archer 这样的其他参与者也介入，将早期的工作与最近改进的技术结合起来，比如更高容量的锂电池和更轻的电动机。它们的持续改进最终可能使空中出租车作为一种商业模式完全可行，创造出一个十亿美元的市场，而真正准备好盈利的公司却寥寥无几。</p>
</div><p>This investment prospect isn't comparable to a familiar, well-established technology company, however. For that matter, it's not even in the same vein as fledgling companies like <strong>Rocket Lab</strong> or electric vehicle producer <strong>Nio</strong>, both of which operate in established industries using proven tech. These are companies facing varying degrees of potential success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这个投资前景并不能与熟悉的、成熟的科技公司相提并论。就此而言，它甚至与 <strong>火箭实验室</strong> 或电动车制造商 <strong>蔚来汽车</strong> 这样的初创公司也不在同一层面，这些公司在使用成熟技术的行业中运营。这些公司面临着不同程度的潜在成功。</p>
</div><p>Rather, Archer Aviation looks like an all-or-nothing trade, meaning it's apt to be a complete wipeout or make you a fortune -- with very little likelihood of anything in between. That's probably more risk than most investors will want to take. Never mind the fact that you would have to sit on that risk for at least several more years before there's even an inkling of how things could pan out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，Archer Aviation 看起来像是一种全有或全无的交易，这意味着它可能会完全失败或让你发大财——中间几乎没有可能性。这可能超出了大多数投资者愿意承担的风险。更不用说，你必须在这个风险上坐等至少几年，才能看到事情可能的发展。</p>
</div><p>In other words, look elsewhere for more-promising prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，寻找其他更有前景的投资机会。</p>
</div>

今天购买 Archer Aviation 的股票能否让你一生无忧？