<p><strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC -1.61%) 是现代市场历史上表现最令人失望的股票之一。这家帮助开创数字时代的老牌芯片制造商的股价在过去 20 年中下跌了近 15%，因为公司错过了移动和人工智能（AI）等重大技术转型，甚至在 2017 年时也放弃了投资 OpenAI 的机会。</p>
<p>与此同时，<strong>AMD</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 等竞争对手已经远远超过了英特尔，尽管英特尔一直表现不佳，但芯片股票在过去十年中普遍表现优于大盘。</p>
<p>今年早些时候，英特尔给投资者带来了一丝希望，聘请了 Lip-Bu Tan 作为新任首席执行官。Tan 是前 <strong>Cadence Design Systems</strong> 的首席执行官，去年八月因对公司缺乏冒险精神和 AI 战略感到失望而辞去了英特尔董事会职务。然而，公司仍面临结构性阻力和一系列难以扭转的糟糕战略决策的遗留问题。</p>
<p>展望未来五年，投资者希望 Tan 能够推动这家芯片巨头的复苏，但我认为这两只科技股将在未来两年内超越英特尔。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NDEvaW52ZXN0b3ItcmVhZGluZy10aGUtbmV3c3BhcGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="700" height="466" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NDEvaW52ZXN0b3ItcmVhZGluZy10aGUtbmV3c3BhcGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. AppLovin</h2>
<p><strong>AppLovin</strong>(APP 3.50%) 是 2024 年最耀眼的增长故事之一，作为一家移动游戏开发和广告技术公司，其股价在去年上涨了超过 700%。</p>
<p>由于消费者情绪减弱和特朗普总统的贸易战的担忧，AppLovin 的市值已回落至 810 亿美元，低于英特尔的 886 亿美元，截至本周末。</p>
<p>AppLovin 在未来五年内更有可能比英特尔更有价值，因为它的增长速度非常快。在 2024 年，该公司的广告收入增长了 75%，达到了 32.2 亿美元，并且最近出售了其移动应用业务，以便专注于核心广告技术业务。</p>
<p>该公司的增长归功于其从零开始构建的 Axon AI 引擎，利用自己的移动应用游戏进行测试和开发——这是大多数广告技术公司所没有的优势。</p>
<p>现在，该公司正在扩展到连接电视（CTV）、电子商务和其他行业领域，显示出它才刚刚开始进入移动广告市场，因为它传统上专注于移动游戏开发者。</p>
<p>目前，AppLovin 的股价从高峰下跌了大约 50%，以 52 的市盈率看起来也更加实惠。</p>
<h2>2. 美光</h2>
<p><strong>美光</strong>(MU -0.77%) 与英特尔有许多共同点，因为它是美国少数几家同时设计和制造芯片的综合设备制造商之一。</p>
<p>与英特尔一样，美光也对商业周期有很大暴露，因此其生产的内存芯片价格会根据供需动态迅速变化。</p>
<p>然而，美光最近的业绩显示，该公司继续受益于 AI 热潮，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在数据中心的需求旺盛。在截至 2 月的财政第二季度，收入增长了 38%，达到了 80.5 亿美元，数据中心业务的收入激增，使其现在占据了公司收入的一半以上。</p>
<p>由于需求强劲和更好的定价环境，其利润率也显著改善。毛利率翻倍至 36.8%，调整后的每股收益从 0.42 美元跃升至 1.56 美元。</p>
<p>在未来几年，美光应该会受益于其作为综合内存芯片公司的领先地位以及来自 AI 的需求增加，因为其最大客户是英伟达。</p>
<p>在估值方面，该股票也相较于英特尔具有优势。美光目前的市盈率为 17。如果其数据中心业务继续蓬勃发展，股价应该会大幅上涨。</p>
<p>目前，美光的市值为 794 亿美元，这意味着它超越英特尔的估值并不需要太多努力。该公司只需继续保持现有的做法。如果芯片需求保持强劲，AI 热潮持续，美光看起来将是一个轻松的赢家。</p>

英伟达

<p>英特尔在市场上面临困境，过去 20 年股价下跌近 15%，错过了关键的技术转型。竞争对手 AMD 和英伟达表现优异。新任首席执行官 Lip-Bu Tan 带来了希望，但挑战依然存在。分析师预测，AppLovin 和美光将在五年内超越英特尔的市值。AppLovin 在广告技术领域的快速增长以及美光对内存芯片的强劲需求，尤其是在人工智能方面，使它们的前景看好。AppLovin 的市值为 810 亿美元，而美光的市值为 794 亿美元，如果趋势持续，两者都有可能超过英特尔的 886 亿美元市值</p>

<p><strong>Intel</strong>(INTC -1.61%) has been one of the more disappointing stocks in modern market history. Shares of the veteran chipmaker, which helped pioneer the digital age, are down almost 15% over the last 20 years, as the company missed out on major technology transitions such as mobile and now artificial intelligence (AI), including passing up an opportunity to invest in OpenAI even as recently as in 2017.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英特尔</strong>(INTC -1.61%) 是现代市场历史上表现最令人失望的股票之一。这家帮助开创数字时代的老牌芯片制造商的股价在过去 20 年中下跌了近 15%，因为公司错过了移动和人工智能（AI）等重大技术转型，甚至在 2017 年时也放弃了投资 OpenAI 的机会。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, competitors like <strong>AMD</strong> and <strong>Nvidia</strong> have soared past Intel, as chip stocks have generally outperformed over the last decade, even as Intel has been a laggard.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，<strong>AMD</strong> 和 <strong>英伟达</strong> 等竞争对手已经远远超过了英特尔，尽管英特尔一直表现不佳，但芯片股票在过去十年中普遍表现优于大盘。</p>
</div><p>Intel gave investors a dash of hope earlier this year, hiring Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO. Tan is the former <strong>Cadence Design Systems</strong> CEO, who had resigned from Intel's board last August after growing frustration with the company's lack of risk-taking and AI strategy. However, the company still faces structural headwinds and a legacy of poor strategic decisions that will be difficult to unwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年早些时候，英特尔给投资者带来了一丝希望，聘请了 Lip-Bu Tan 作为新任首席执行官。Tan 是前 <strong>Cadence Design Systems</strong> 的首席执行官，去年八月因对公司缺乏冒险精神和 AI 战略感到失望而辞去了英特尔董事会职务。然而，公司仍面临结构性阻力和一系列难以扭转的糟糕战略决策的遗留问题。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead five years, investors are hopeful that Tan can drive a comeback at the chip giant, but I think these two tech stocks will leapfrog Intel over the next two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未来五年，投资者希望 Tan 能够推动这家芯片巨头的复苏，但我认为这两只科技股将在未来两年内超越英特尔。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTQ4NDEvaW52ZXN0b3ItcmVhZGluZy10aGUtbmV3c3BhcGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F814841%2Finvestor-reading-the-newspaper.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. AppLovin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. AppLovin</h2>
</div><p><strong>AppLovin</strong>(APP 3.50%) was one of the brightest growth stories of 2024, as shares of the mobile game developer and adtech company jumped up more than 700% last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>AppLovin</strong>(APP 3.50%) 是 2024 年最耀眼的增长故事之一，作为一家移动游戏开发和广告技术公司，其股价在去年上涨了超过 700%。</p>
</div><p>Following worries about softening consumer sentiment and President Trump's trade war, AppLovin's market cap has retreated to $81 billion, lower than Intel's $88.6 billion, as of the end of this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于消费者情绪减弱和特朗普总统的贸易战的担忧，AppLovin 的市值已回落至 810 亿美元，低于英特尔的 886 亿美元，截至本周末。</p>
</div><p>AppLovin is a good bet to be more valuable than Intel in the next five years because it's growing so rapidly. In 2024, the company's advertising revenue jumped 75% to $3.22 billion, and it recently sold its mobile apps business so it can focus on the core adtech business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AppLovin 在未来五年内更有可能比英特尔更有价值，因为它的增长速度非常快。在 2024 年，该公司的广告收入增长了 75%，达到了 32.2 亿美元，并且最近出售了其移动应用业务，以便专注于核心广告技术业务。</p>
</div><p>The company's growth is attributable to the Axon AI engine it built from scratch using its own mobile app games to test and develop --an advantage most adtech companies don't have.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的增长归功于其从零开始构建的 Axon AI 引擎，利用自己的移动应用游戏进行测试和开发——这是大多数广告技术公司所没有的优势。</p>
</div><p>Now, the company is expanding into areas like connected TV (CTV), e-commerce, and other industry verticals, showing it's only just begun to tap the mobile ad market, as it has traditionally focused on mobile game developers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在，该公司正在扩展到连接电视（CTV）、电子商务和其他行业领域，显示出它才刚刚开始进入移动广告市场，因为它传统上专注于移动游戏开发者。</p>
</div><p>With the stock down roughly 50% from its peak now, AppLovin also looks much more affordable at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，AppLovin 的股价从高峰下跌了大约 50%，以 52 的市盈率看起来也更加实惠。</p>
</div><h2>2. Micron</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 美光</h2>
</div><p><strong>Micron</strong>(MU -0.77%) has a number of things in common with Intel, as it's one of the few other integrated device makers in the U.S., meaning it both designs and manufacturing chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美光</strong>(MU -0.77%) 与英特尔有许多共同点，因为它是美国少数几家同时设计和制造芯片的综合设备制造商之一。</p>
</div><p>Like Intel, Micron also has a lot of exposure to the business cycle, so prices for the memory chips that it makes can change rapidly, according to supply/demand dynamics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与英特尔一样，美光也对商业周期有很大暴露，因此其生产的内存芯片价格会根据供需动态迅速变化。</p>
</div><p>However, Micron's recent results show the company continues to benefit from the AI boom, as its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are in high demand for data centers. In the fiscal second quarter that ended in February, revenue jumped 38% to $8.05 billion, paced by a surge in data center revenue, as the data center biz now make up more than half of its revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美光最近的业绩显示，该公司继续受益于 AI 热潮，其高带宽内存（HBM）芯片在数据中心的需求旺盛。在截至 2 月的财政第二季度，收入增长了 38%，达到了 80.5 亿美元，数据中心业务的收入激增，使其现在占据了公司收入的一半以上。</p>
</div><p>Its margins have also significantly improved thanks to stronger demand and a better pricing environment. Gross margin doubled to 36.8%, and adjusted earnings per share jumped from $0.42 to $1.56.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于需求强劲和更好的定价环境，其利润率也显著改善。毛利率翻倍至 36.8%，调整后的每股收益从 0.42 美元跃升至 1.56 美元。</p>
</div><p>Over the coming years, Micron should benefit from its leading position as an integrated memory chip company and increasing demand from AI, as its biggest customer is Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未来几年，美光应该会受益于其作为综合内存芯片公司的领先地位以及来自 AI 的需求增加，因为其最大客户是英伟达。</p>
</div><p>The stock also has an advantage over Intel in valuation. Micron trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 right now. If its data center segment continues to boom, the stock should surge higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在估值方面，该股票也相较于英特尔具有优势。美光目前的市盈率为 17。如果其数据中心业务继续蓬勃发展，股价应该会大幅上涨。</p>
</div><p>Currently, Micron has a market cap of $79.4 billion, meaning it won't take much for it to overtake Intel in valuation. The company just has to keep doing what it's doing. If chip demand remains strong and the AI boom continues, Micron looks an easy winner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，美光的市值为 794 亿美元，这意味着它超越英特尔的估值并不需要太多努力。该公司只需继续保持现有的做法。如果芯片需求保持强劲，AI 热潮持续，美光看起来将是一个轻松的赢家。</p>
</div>

Prediction: 2 Stocks That Will Be Worth More Than Intel 5 Years From Now

- 英特尔股价在过去 20 年下跌近 15%，错失移动和人工智能等技术转型机会。  
- AppLovin 和美光在快速增长中，预计将在未来五年超越英特尔的市值。  
- 美光受益于 AI 需求，第二财季营收增长 38%，市值为 794 亿美元。  

预测：五年后两只股票的价值将超过英特尔