<p>在周一，<strong>Gary Black</strong>，<strong>The Future Fund LLC</strong> 的管理合伙人表示，他认为 <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> 的 TSLA 股票价格在周二的第一季度财报发布后将更多地依赖于公司的前景和管理层的关键评论。</p><p><strong>发生了什么：</strong> Black 在 <strong>X</strong>（前身为 <strong>Twitter</strong>）上表示：“特斯拉的股票价格在明天的财报发布后，更多地取决于管理层对更实惠车型的看法、奥斯汀无人驾驶测试市场的时间安排、埃隆未来与 DOGE 的关系，以及对 FY'25 交付增长的指导，而不仅仅是实际结果。”</p><p>他还提供了对特斯拉第一季度和 2025 年全年的预测，并将其与华尔街的预期进行了比较：</p><figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th><strong>指标</strong></th><th><strong>Gary Black 的估计</strong></th><th><strong>华尔街估计</strong></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>第一季度调整后每股收益</strong></td><td>$0.37</td><td>$0.44</td></tr><tr><td><strong>第一季度汽车毛利率（不含监管信用）</strong></td><td>12.6%</td><td>12.3%</td></tr><tr><td><strong>第一季度收入</strong></td><td>$200 亿</td><td>$214 亿</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2025 年交付量</strong></td><td>170 万（同比下降 5%）</td><td>180.9 万（同比增长 1.1%）</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2025 年调整后每股收益</strong></td><td>$2.60</td><td>$2.64</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p><i>来源：Gary Black, X</i></p><p>他指出，华尔街的共识可能已经过时，因为分析师通常在一个季度结束后不会更新他们的模型，直到实际结果公布。这使得这些数字可能过于乐观。</p><p>相反，他表示特斯拉投资者关系（IR）对分析师的调查更为现实。</p><figure class="table"><table><thead><tr><th> </th><th> </th><th> </th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>指标</strong></td><td><strong>特斯拉 IR 汇编的估计</strong></td><td><strong>华尔街共识</strong></td></tr><tr><td><strong>第一季度调整后每股收益</strong></td><td>$0.38</td><td>$0.44</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2025 年交付量</strong></td><td>173.1 万（同比下降 3%）</td><td>180.9 万（同比增长 1.1%）</td></tr><tr><td><strong>2025 年调整后每股收益</strong></td><td>$2.29</td><td>$2.64</td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p><i>来源：Gary Black, X</i></p><blockquote><p>$TSLA 股票价格在明天的财报发布后，更多地取决于管理层对更实惠车型的看法、奥斯汀无人驾驶测试市场的时间安排、埃隆未来与 DOGE 的关系，以及对 FY'25 交付增长的指导，这是一种品牌的衡量…… pic.twitter.com/gKWpFgfLsq</p><p>— Gary Black (@garyblack00) 2025 年 4 月 21 日</p></blockquote><p><strong>重要性：</strong> 上周，有报道称特斯拉推迟了其更实惠版本的 Model Y SUV 在美国的发布。该车型的内部代号为 “E41”，原定于今年上半年首次亮相。</p><p>马斯克的电动车巨头还暗示将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出其 Cybercab 无人驾驶打车服务——但该计划引发了行业专家的质疑。</p><p>此外，马斯克还面临来自投资者的越来越多的批评，担心他对公司的关注度下降，因为他的注意力似乎越来越多地集中在他在总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 的政府效率部门（DOGE）中的角色上。</p><p>自特朗普就职以来，马斯克的政治参与引发了特斯拉展厅和设施的全国性抗议，从和平示威到破坏行为不等。</p><p>他在外交事务上的争议性言论也在欧洲引发了反响，特斯拉的财产遭到攻击，销售额下滑。</p><p><strong>价格走势：</strong> 根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据，特斯拉的股票在周一下跌了 5.96%，继续了更广泛的下跌趋势，今年迄今股价已下跌 40.04%。</p><p>根据 Benzinga 跟踪的 29 位分析师的共识，特斯拉的目标价格为 $298.14。Piper Sandler、UBS 和 Mizuho 的三项最新评级建议更高的平均目标价格为 $321.67，基于这些更新的评估，表明潜在上涨幅度为 41.17%。</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4996a967821d2d556f7280238b90856e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1024" height="374" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/4996a967821d2d556f7280238b90856e"/></figure><p>该公司目前在 Benzinga Edge 股票排名中拥有 67.59% 的增长评分。</p><p><i>图片来源: Ti Vla On Shutterstock.com</i></p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>The Future Fund LLC 的管理合伙人 Gary Black 认为，特斯拉在第一季度财报发布后的股价将更多受到管理层关于经济型车辆、自动驾驶以及埃隆·马斯克与 DOGE 相关参与的评论影响，而非财务结果。他认为华尔街的共识预期可能已经过时，建议特斯拉的投资者关系调查提供了更为现实的前景。特斯拉的股票最近下跌了 5.96%，年初至今累计下降了 40.04%</p>

<p>On Monday, <strong>Gary Black</strong>, managing partner at <strong>The Future Fund LLC</strong>, said that he believes <strong>Tesla Inc.'s</strong> TSLA stock price after its first-quarter earnings report on Tuesday will hinge more on the company's outlook and key management comments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周一，<strong>Gary Black</strong>，<strong>The Future Fund LLC</strong> 的管理合伙人表示，他认为 <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> 的 TSLA 股票价格在周二的第一季度财报发布后将更多地依赖于公司的前景和管理层的关键评论。</p>
</div><p><strong>What Happened:</strong> Black took to <strong>X</strong>, formerly <strong>Twitter</strong>, and said, “Tesla’s stock price after tomorrow's earnings depends far more on what management says about the more affordable vehicle, the timing of the Austin unsupervised autonomous test market, Elon's future involvement with DOGE, and guidance on FY'25 delivery growth, than actual results,” Black said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>发生了什么：</strong> Black 在 <strong>X</strong>（前身为 <strong>Twitter</strong>）上表示：“特斯拉的股票价格在明天的财报发布后，更多地取决于管理层对更实惠车型的看法、奥斯汀无人驾驶测试市场的时间安排、埃隆未来与 DOGE 的关系，以及对 FY'25 交付增长的指导，而不仅仅是实际结果。”</p>
</div><p>He also provided his predictions for Tesla's first-quarter and full-year 2025, and compared them to what Wall Street is expecting:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他还提供了对特斯拉第一季度和 2025 年全年的预测，并将其与华尔街的预期进行了比较：</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>Metric</strong></th>
<th><strong>Gary Black’s Estimate</strong></th>
<th><strong>Wall Street Estimate</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Q1 Adjusted EPS</strong></td>
<td>$0.37</td>
<td>$0.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Q1 Auto Gross Margin (ex-reg credits)</strong></td>
<td>12.6%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Q1 Revenue</strong></td>
<td>$20.0 billion</td>
<td>$21.4 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 Deliveries</strong></td>
<td>1.7 million (-5% YoY)</td>
<td>1.809 million (+1.1% YoY)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 Adjusted EPS</strong></td>
<td>$2.60</td>
<td>$2.64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>指标</strong></th>
<th><strong>Gary Black 的估计</strong></th>
<th><strong>华尔街估计</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>第一季度调整后每股收益</strong></td>
<td>$0.37</td>
<td>$0.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>第一季度汽车毛利率（不含监管信用）</strong></td>
<td>12.6%</td>
<td>12.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>第一季度收入</strong></td>
<td>$200 亿</td>
<td>$214 亿</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 年交付量</strong></td>
<td>170 万（同比下降 5%）</td>
<td>180.9 万（同比增长 1.1%）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 年调整后每股收益</strong></td>
<td>$2.60</td>
<td>$2.64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><em>Source: Gary Black, X</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Gary Black, X</em></p>
</div><p><strong>See Also: Ford Recalls Nearly 150,000 Vehicles Over Brake And Powertrain Issues: NHTSA</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>另见：福特因刹车和动力系统问题召回近 15 万辆汽车：NHTSA</strong></p>
</div><p>He points out that the Wall Street consensus may be outdated because analysts usually don't update their models after a quarter ends until the actual results come in. That makes those numbers possibly too optimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他指出，华尔街的共识可能已经过时，因为分析师通常在一个季度结束后不会更新他们的模型，直到实际结果公布。这使得这些数字可能过于乐观。</p>
</div><p>Instead, he says the Tesla Investor Relations (IR) survey of analysts is more realistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，他表示特斯拉投资者关系（IR）对分析师的调查更为现实。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Metric</strong></td>
<td><strong>Tesla IR-Compiled Estimate</strong></td>
<td><strong>Wall Street Consensus</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Q1 Adjusted EPS</strong></td>
<td>$0.38</td>
<td>$0.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 Deliveries</strong></td>
<td>1.731 million (-3% YoY)</td>
<td>1.809 million (+1.1% YoY)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 Adjusted EPS</strong></td>
<td>$2.29</td>
<td>$2.64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>指标</strong></td>
<td><strong>特斯拉 IR 汇编的估计</strong></td>
<td><strong>华尔街共识</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>第一季度调整后每股收益</strong></td>
<td>$0.38</td>
<td>$0.44</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 年交付量</strong></td>
<td>173.1 万（同比下降 3%）</td>
<td>180.9 万（同比增长 1.1%）</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>2025 年调整后每股收益</strong></td>
<td>$2.29</td>
<td>$2.64</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p><em>Source: Gary Black, X</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>来源：Gary Black, X</em></p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>$TSLA stock price after tomorrow's earnings depends far more on what mgmt says about the more affordable vehicle, timing of the Austin unsupervised autonomous test market, Elon's future involvement with DOGE, and guidance on FY'25 delivery growth, which is a measure of brand… pic.twitter.com/gKWpFgfLsq</p>
<p>— Gary Black (@garyblack00) April 21, 2025</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>$TSLA 股票价格在明天的财报发布后，更多地取决于管理层对更实惠车型的看法、奥斯汀无人驾驶测试市场的时间安排、埃隆未来与 DOGE 的关系，以及对 FY'25 交付增长的指导，这是一种品牌的衡量…… pic.twitter.com/gKWpFgfLsq</p>
<p>— Gary Black (@garyblack00) 2025 年 4 月 21 日</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><strong>Why It's Important:</strong> Last week, it was reported that Tesla has delayed the U.S. launch of a more affordable variant of its Model Y SUV. Internally codenamed “E41,” the vehicle was originally scheduled to debut in the first half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>重要性：</strong> 上周，有报道称特斯拉推迟了其更实惠版本的 Model Y SUV 在美国的发布。该车型的内部代号为 “E41”，原定于今年上半年首次亮相。</p>
</div><p>Musk’s EV giant has also been hinting at the launch of its Cybercab autonomous ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas — but the plan has drawn skepticism from industry experts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>马斯克的电动车巨头还暗示将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出其 Cybercab 无人驾驶打车服务——但该计划引发了行业专家的质疑。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, Musk is facing mounting criticism from investors over concerns that he's losing focus on the company, as his attention appears increasingly directed toward his role in President <strong>Donald Trump's</strong> Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，马斯克还面临来自投资者的越来越多的批评，担心他对公司的关注度下降，因为他的注意力似乎越来越多地集中在他在总统 <strong>唐纳德·特朗普</strong> 的政府效率部门（DOGE）中的角色上。</p>
</div><p>Since assuming the position following Trump's inauguration, Musk's political involvement has sparked nationwide protests at Tesla showrooms and facilities, ranging from peaceful demonstrations to acts of vandalism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自特朗普就职以来，马斯克的政治参与引发了特斯拉展厅和设施的全国性抗议，从和平示威到破坏行为不等。</p>
</div><p>His controversial remarks on foreign affairs have also drawn backlash in Europe, where attacks on Tesla properties and slumping sales have been reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他在外交事务上的争议性言论也在欧洲引发了反响，特斯拉的财产遭到攻击，销售额下滑。</p>
</div><p><strong>Price Action:</strong> Tesla's stock dropped 5.96% on Monday, continuing a broader decline that has seen shares fall by 40.04% year-to-date, according to Benzinga Pro.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>价格走势：</strong> 根据 Benzinga Pro 的数据，特斯拉的股票在周一下跌了 5.96%，继续了更广泛的下跌趋势，今年迄今股价已下跌 40.04%。</p>
</div><p>29 analysts tracked by Benzinga have set a consensus price target for Tesla at $298.14. The three latest ratings from Piper Sandler, UBS, and Mizuho suggest a higher average price target of $321.67, indicating a potential upside of 41.17% based on these updated evaluations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 Benzinga 跟踪的 29 位分析师的共识，特斯拉的目标价格为 $298.14。Piper Sandler、UBS 和 Mizuho 的三项最新评级建议更高的平均目标价格为 $321.67，基于这些更新的评估，表明潜在上涨幅度为 41.17%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/21225843/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-8.28.37%E2%80%AFAM-1024x374.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/21225843/Screenshot-2025-04-22-at-8.28.37%E2%80%AFAM-1024x374.png"/></p>
<p>The company currently holds a growth score of 67.59% based on Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司目前在 Benzinga Edge 股票排名中拥有 67.59% 的增长评分。</p>
</div><p><em>Photo Courtesy: Ti Vla On Shutterstock.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>照片来源：Ti Vla On Shutterstock.com</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下来阅读：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Charlie Munger Once Said Warren Buffett Is A ‘Learning Machine' And That's What Lies Beneath Berkshire Hathaway's Success From One Decade To Another</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>查理·芒格曾说沃伦·巴菲特是一个 ‘学习机器’，这就是伯克希尔哈撒韦从一个十年到另一个十年的成功之道</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer</em>:</strong> <em>This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免责声明：</em></strong> <em>此内容部分是通过 AI 工具生成的，并由 Benzinga 编辑审核和发布。</em></p>
</div>

Gary Black Says Wall Street Consensus Outdated On Tesla Q1

- Gary Black 认为特斯拉股价将取决于管理层对未来的展望和关键评论。  
- 他预测特斯拉第一季度调整后每股收益为 $0.37，低于华尔街的 $0.44。  
- 特斯拉股价已下跌 5.96%，年初至今累计下跌 40.04%。  

Gary Black 表示，华尔街对特斯拉第一季度的共识已经过时：股价将取决于对经济型汽车的评论以及 Elon Musk 在 DOGE 上的动向