<p>认为运动服装和鞋类公司 <strong>耐克</strong>（NKE 1.75%）在 2024 年底是一个不错的买入时机的投资者，经过 30% 的下跌后，不幸的是，他们的判断是错误的——至少目前是这样。截至目前，该股票又下跌了 28%。这使得自 2024 年初以来，该股票的总损失达到了令人痛心的 50%。</p>
<p>在经历如此巨大的下跌后，一些投资者可能会想知道现在是否是买入该股票的好时机。但投资者可能需要谨慎行事。尽管今天的估值更便宜，但仍然存在重大风险。</p>
<h2>令人失望的业务表现</h2>
<p>我们不妨直言不讳：耐克的业务正在遭受重创。最近一个季度的收入同比下降了 9%，每股收益下降了 30%，降至 0.54 美元。这与截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日的过去九个月的公司表现大致相符。这三个季度的总收入和每股收益同比下降了 9% 和 26%。</p>
<p>公司面临的近期挑战包括促销环境、货币逆风、重组努力和关税。</p>
<p>更糟糕的是，管理层认为其财政第四季度的表现将进一步恶化。公司预计财政第四季度的收入将同比下降中个位数的幅度。此外，耐克首席财务官 Matthew Friend 在公司财政第三季度的财报电话会议上表示，他预计公司财政第四季度的毛利率将比去年同期收窄 400 到 500 个基点。这比耐克在财政第三季度的毛利率同比下降 330 个基点的情况更糟。</p>
<p>耐克的麻烦还在于，特朗普总统在四月初的关税公告使全球贸易变得复杂，并导致消费者信心下降。这可能同时增加耐克的成本，造成生产中的新瓶颈，并对其商品的需求产生负面影响。</p>
<h2>尽管大幅回调，股票仍然不便宜</h2>
<p>所有这些挑战可能是投资者可以忍受的，如果耐克的股票价格足够便宜。但目前该股票的交易价格为过去 12 个月收益的 18 倍，以及分析师对公司未来 12 个月收益的共识估计的约 26 倍，股票仍然保持着健康的溢价。</p>
<p>当然，多头会争辩说，耐克目前历史上疲弱的盈利能力可能只是公司长期轨迹中的一次暂时波动。如果这是一个确定的结果，那么在当前估值下，股票可能是一个不错的买入。</p>
<p>多头可能还会指出：截至目前，耐克的股息收益率为 2.9%，这有助于降低在当前价格投资运动服装和鞋类公司股票的风险。如此强劲的股息收益率意味着耐克的投资者在等待公司能否扭转局面时，可以获得稳定的现金流入。</p>
<p>然而，总体而言，耐克股票的风险回报价值主张在今天看起来并不特别吸引人。首先，如果公司的盈利在长期内未能如预期增长，或者恢复的时间比预期更长，股票未能显著升值的风险就存在。此外，购买耐克股票以获取股息收入的投资者应记住，公司并不保证会维持当前的股息政策。如果业务进一步恶化，耐克可能会暂停股息增长，甚至削减或减少其股息支付。</p>
<p>没有人能确切知道未来会是什么样子，因此最好在一个能为耐克的扭转故事留出更多空间的价格买入股票。因此，投资者在购买耐克股票时可能明智地保持更耐心。我个人会等到股票以更保守的市盈率交易时再考虑投资——也许是 20 到 22 倍的市盈率。这样的估值将有助于降低潜在过高支付股票的风险。</p>

耐克

<p>耐克的股票在 2024 年暴跌了 50%，年初至今下降了 28%。最近的季度收入下降了 9%，每股收益下降了 30%。面临的挑战包括激烈的促销环境、货币问题和关税。尽管股息收益率为 2.9%，但该股票的交易溢价使其吸引力降低。分析师建议在投资前等待更低的估值，因为潜在的收益恢复和股息可持续性仍存在高风险</p>

<p>Investors who thought sports apparel and shoe company <strong>Nike</strong>(NKE 1.75%) was a good buy at the end of 2024, following a 30% decline, have unfortunately been dead wrong -- at least for now. Year to date, the stock has fallen another 28%. This puts the stock's total loss since the beginning of 2024 at a painful 50% as of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>认为运动服装和鞋类公司 <strong>耐克</strong>（NKE 1.75%）在 2024 年底是一个不错的买入时机的投资者，经过 30% 的下跌后，不幸的是，他们的判断是错误的——至少目前是这样。截至目前，该股票又下跌了 28%。这使得自 2024 年初以来，该股票的总损失达到了令人痛心的 50%。</p>
</div><p>With such an extraordinary decline in the rearview mirror, some investors may be wondering if now is a good time to buy the stock. But investors may want to proceed cautiously. Despite its cheaper valuation today, there are still significant risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历如此巨大的下跌后，一些投资者可能会想知道现在是否是买入该股票的好时机。但投资者可能需要谨慎行事。尽管今天的估值更便宜，但仍然存在重大风险。</p>
</div><h2>Disappointing business performance</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>令人失望的业务表现</h2>
</div><p>Let's not sugar coat it: Nike's business is getting pummeled. Revenue in its most recent quarter fell 9% year over year and earnings per share declined 30% to $0.54. This is about in line with the company's performance for the trailing-nine-month period ended Feb. 28, 2025. Total revenue and earnings per share in these three quarters fell 9% and 26% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们不妨直言不讳：耐克的业务正在遭受重创。最近一个季度的收入同比下降了 9%，每股收益下降了 30%，降至 0.54 美元。这与截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日的过去九个月的公司表现大致相符。这三个季度的总收入和每股收益同比下降了 9% 和 26%。</p>
</div><p>Recent challenges for the company include a promotional environment, currency headwinds, restructuring efforts, and tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司面临的近期挑战包括促销环境、货币逆风、重组努力和关税。</p>
</div><p>Making matters worse, management believes its fiscal fourth-quarter performance will deteriorate further. The company guided for fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to be down by a rate in the mid-teens on a year-over-year basis. Additionally, Nike chief financial officer Matthew Friend said in the company's fiscal third-quarter earnings call that he expects the company's fiscal fourth-quarer gross profit margin will narrow by 400 to 500 points compared to the year-ago quarter. This is worse than Nike's year-over-year gross margin decrease of 330 basis points in its fiscal third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更糟糕的是，管理层认为其财政第四季度的表现将进一步恶化。公司预计财政第四季度的收入将同比下降中个位数的幅度。此外，耐克首席财务官 Matthew Friend 在公司财政第三季度的财报电话会议上表示，他预计公司财政第四季度的毛利率将比去年同期收窄 400 到 500 个基点。这比耐克在财政第三季度的毛利率同比下降 330 个基点的情况更糟。</p>
</div><p>Adding to Nike's troubles, President Donald Trump's tariff announcement in early April has complicated global trade and led to lower consumer confidence levels. This could simultaneously increase Nike's costs, create new bottlenecks in production, and negatively impact demand for its goods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>耐克的麻烦还在于，特朗普总统在四月初的关税公告使全球贸易变得复杂，并导致消费者信心下降。这可能同时增加耐克的成本，造成生产中的新瓶颈，并对其商品的需求产生负面影响。</p>
</div><h2>Despite a sharp pullback, shares still don't look cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管大幅回调，股票仍然不便宜</h2>
</div><p>All of these challenges might be ones investors could live with if Nike shares were priced cheap enough. But with the stock currently trading at 18 times trailing-12-month earnings and approximately 26 times analysts' consensus estimate for the company's earnings over the next 12 months, the stock still commands a healthy premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有这些挑战可能是投资者可以忍受的，如果耐克的股票价格足够便宜。但目前该股票的交易价格为过去 12 个月收益的 18 倍，以及分析师对公司未来 12 个月收益的共识估计的约 26 倍，股票仍然保持着健康的溢价。</p>
</div><p>Bulls, of course, would argue that Nike's historically weak earnings power today may prove to be a temporary blip in the company's long-term trajectory. If this were a certain outcome, shares are probably a good buy at their current valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当然，多头会争辩说，耐克目前历史上疲弱的盈利能力可能只是公司长期轨迹中的一次暂时波动。如果这是一个确定的结果，那么在当前估值下，股票可能是一个不错的买入。</p>
</div><p>Another point bulls might make: Nike's dividend yield of 2.9% as of this writing helps lower the risk of investing in the sports apparel and shoe company's stock at its current price. A robust dividend yield like this means Nike investors get a solid stream of cash flow into their portfolios while they wait to see if the company can turn things around.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>多头可能还会指出：截至目前，耐克的股息收益率为 2.9%，这有助于降低在当前价格投资运动服装和鞋类公司股票的风险。如此强劲的股息收益率意味着耐克的投资者在等待公司能否扭转局面时，可以获得稳定的现金流入。</p>
</div><p>Overall, however, the risk-reward value proposition for Nike stock doesn't look particularly attractive today. First of all, there's the risk that shares fail to appreciate meaningfully if the company's earnings either don't grow as expected over the long haul or simply take longer than expected to recover. In addition, investors buying Nike shares for dividend income should keep in mind that there's no guarantee that the company will maintain its current dividend policy. If business deteriorates further, Nike could always pause dividend increases or even cut or reduce its dividend payout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，总体而言，耐克股票的风险回报价值主张在今天看起来并不特别吸引人。首先，如果公司的盈利在长期内未能如预期增长，或者恢复的时间比预期更长，股票未能显著升值的风险就存在。此外，购买耐克股票以获取股息收入的投资者应记住，公司并不保证会维持当前的股息政策。如果业务进一步恶化，耐克可能会暂停股息增长，甚至削减或减少其股息支付。</p>
</div><p>No one knows for sure what the future will look like, so it's best to buy shares at a price that leaves more room for some slip-ups in Nike's turnaround story. Investors, therefore, might be wise to be more patient when buying Nike shares. I'd personally wait to consider investing in shares until the stock trades at a more conservative multiple to its forward earnings -- perhaps a multiple of about 20 to 22. A valuation like this would help mitigate some of the risk of potentially overpaying for shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>没有人能确切知道未来会是什么样子，因此最好在一个能为耐克的扭转故事留出更多空间的价格买入股票。因此，投资者在购买耐克股票时可能明智地保持更耐心。我个人会等到股票以更保守的市盈率交易时再考虑投资——也许是 20 到 22 倍的市盈率。这样的估值将有助于降低潜在过高支付股票的风险。</p>
</div>

耐克股票今年大幅下跌。现在是买入的时机吗？