<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 3.43%），全球最大的公司，在本月市场下跌期间与大多数其他股票一起下跌。它的股价距离历史最高点约下跌了 23%，这可能导致许多投资者质疑现在是否是购买该股票的好时机。</p>
<p>尽管苹果的股价大幅下跌，但我认为今天的价格并不是一个买入机会。与其他一些大型科技股相比，苹果仍然相对昂贵，股价需要进一步下跌，我才会考虑入场。</p>
<h2>苹果的主要收入来源多年未增长</h2>
<p>由于在智能手机领域的强大立足点，苹果是全球最知名的品牌之一，绝大多数美国人都拥有这种设备。然而，该市场已经饱和，增长速度不再像以前那样。此外，苹果在其 iPhone 上已经很长时间没有推出创新功能，因此消费者并没有像以前那样频繁升级智能手机。</p>
<p>由于 iPhone 是苹果最大的业务板块（iPhone 销售在苹果上个季度的收入中占 56%），这种停滞对公司来说并不好。然而，这不仅仅是 2024 年的问题；这种情况已经持续了一段时间。</p>
<p>苹果财年的第一季度（截至 2024 年 12 月 28 日的 2025 财年）是公司最重要的 iPhone 季度，因为它涵盖了圣诞假期。但在过去五年中，这段时间的 iPhone 销售没有任何变化。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>财年</th>
<th>第一季度 iPhone 销售</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>656 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>716 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>658 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>697 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>691 亿美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>数据来源：苹果。</p>
<p>考虑到通货膨胀等其他因素，这种缺乏增长的问题变得更加严重。</p>
<p>另一个可能损害苹果业务的因素是关税。苹果的 iPhone 在中国组装，但最近因重新分类而获得了临时关税减免。目前它们仍面临 20% 的关税。然而，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示，半导体相关的关税即将到来，苹果可能无法逃避这些关税。</p>
<p>因此，苹果有三个选择：</p>
<ol>
<li>吸收关税成本，</li>
<li>将这些成本转嫁给消费者，或</li>
<li>将这些成本转嫁给供应商。</li>
</ol>
<p>苹果的财务不受损害的唯一方式是选择第三种，但它可能无法将那么多成本转嫁给供应商。因此，苹果可能会面临困难，直到它将部分业务迁回美国。</p>
<p>这些对苹果来说并不是好前景，但该股票仍然有溢价估值。</p>
<h2>尽管抛售，苹果的股票仍然不便宜</h2>
<p>即使在股价下跌 23% 之后，苹果的股票仍然以高额溢价交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/81131ae13146abeef947e788dd1180db.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/81131ae13146abeef947e788dd1180db.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
<p>从过去的市盈率（P/E）角度来看，苹果的交易价格仍高于 2021 年大部分时间到 2024 年初的水平。即使是其未来市盈率也并不吸引人，因为预计苹果今年和明年的增长不会强劲。华尔街分析师仅预测 2025 财年的收入增长为 4.2%，2026 财年的收入增长为 7.2%。</p>
<p>“七大奇迹” 中的一大部分公司具有更好的增长前景，并且交易估值低于苹果。因此，我认为投资者应该关注那些股票，而不是浪费时间在苹果身上。支撑其估值的唯一因素是其品牌，但如果消费者无法承担受关税影响的 iPhone，这并不会意味着太多。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票从历史高点下跌了 23%，引发投资者对买入机会的质疑。尽管下跌，但与其他科技股相比，该股票仍然显得昂贵。苹果的主要收入来源——iPhone 销售已经停滞，公司面临关税和通货膨胀带来的挑战。分析师预计未来两年的收入增长将温和，这使得苹果相比同行显得不那么有吸引力。如果消费者受到成本上升的影响，品牌的强势可能无法支撑其高昂的估值</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 3.43%), the world's largest company, fell alongside most other stocks during this month's market downturn. It's around 23% off its all-time high, which is likely causing many investors to question whether now is a good time to buy the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL 3.43%），全球最大的公司，在本月市场下跌期间与大多数其他股票一起下跌。它的股价距离历史最高点约下跌了 23%，这可能导致许多投资者质疑现在是否是购买该股票的好时机。</p>
</div><p>Although Apple is down significantly, I don't think today's prices are a buying opportunity. Apple is still rather expensive compared to some other big tech stocks, and it would need to tumble further before I'd consider taking a position.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管苹果的股价大幅下跌，但我认为今天的价格并不是一个买入机会。与其他一些大型科技股相比，苹果仍然相对昂贵，股价需要进一步下跌，我才会考虑入场。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's primary revenue driver hasn't grown in years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的主要收入来源多年未增长</h2>
</div><p>Apple is one of the most recognizable brands on earth due to its strong foothold in the smartphone sector, a device the vast majority of Americans own. However, that market is saturated and isn't growing like it used to. Furthermore, Apple hasn't released an innovative feature on its iPhones in a long time, so consumers are not upgrading their smartphones as often.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于在智能手机领域的强大立足点，苹果是全球最知名的品牌之一，绝大多数美国人都拥有这种设备。然而，该市场已经饱和，增长速度不再像以前那样。此外，苹果在其 iPhone 上已经很长时间没有推出创新功能，因此消费者并没有像以前那样频繁升级智能手机。</p>
</div><p>With iPhones being the largest segment within Apple by far (iPhone sales made up 56% of Apple's revenue during its last quarter), this stagnation isn't great for the company. However, this isn't just a 2024 issue; it has been happening for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于 iPhone 是苹果最大的业务板块（iPhone 销售在苹果上个季度的收入中占 56%），这种停滞对公司来说并不好。然而，这不仅仅是 2024 年的问题；这种情况已经持续了一段时间。</p>
</div><p>The first quarter of Apple's fiscal year (which ended Dec. 28, 2024 for Apple's fiscal year 2025) is the company's most important iPhone quarter, because it encompasses the Christmas holiday. But iPhone sales during this time frame haven't budged over the past five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果财年的第一季度（截至 2024 年 12 月 28 日的 2025 财年）是公司最重要的 iPhone 季度，因为它涵盖了圣诞假期。但在过去五年中，这段时间的 iPhone 销售没有任何变化。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Fiscal Year</th>
<th>Q1 iPhone Sales</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>$65.6 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>$71.6 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>$65.8 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>$69.7 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>$69.1 billion</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>财年</th>
<th>第一季度 iPhone 销售</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2021</td>
<td>656 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>716 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>658 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>697 亿美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>691 亿美元</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Apple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数据来源：苹果。</p>
</div><p>When you consider other factors like inflation, this lack of growth becomes even more of an issue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考虑到通货膨胀等其他因素，这种缺乏增长的问题变得更加严重。</p>
</div><p>Another factor that could harm Apple's business is tariffs. Apple's iPhones are assembled in China, but they recently received temporary relief from tariffs as they were recategorized. They still face a 20% tariff as of right now. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said semiconductor-related tariffs are coming, and Apple likely won't escape those.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一个可能损害苹果业务的因素是关税。苹果的 iPhone 在中国组装，但最近因重新分类而获得了临时关税减免。目前它们仍面临 20% 的关税。然而，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示，半导体相关的关税即将到来，苹果可能无法逃避这些关税。</p>
</div><p>So, Apple has three choices:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，苹果有三个选择：</p>
</div><ol>
<li>Eat the cost of tariffs,</li>
<li>Pass those costs on to the consumer, or</li>
<li>Pass those costs on to the supplier.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>吸收关税成本，</li>
<li>将这些成本转嫁给消费者，或</li>
<li>将这些成本转嫁给供应商。</li>
</ol>
</div><p>The only way Apple's finances aren't harmed is option No. 3, but it's likely that it won't be able to pass along that much of the costs to the supplier. As a result, Apple could struggle until it moves some of its business back into the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果的财务不受损害的唯一方式是选择第三种，但它可能无法将那么多成本转嫁给供应商。因此，苹果可能会面临困难，直到它将部分业务迁回美国。</p>
</div><p>Those aren't great prospects for Apple, yet the stock still has a premium valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些对苹果来说并不是好前景，但该股票仍然有溢价估值。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's stock still isn't cheap despite the sell-off</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>尽管抛售，苹果的股票仍然不便宜</h2>
</div><p>Even after the stock has tumbled 23%, Apple's stock still fetches a hefty premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在股价下跌 23% 之后，苹果的股票仍然以高额溢价交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/81131ae13146abeef947e788dd1180db.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/81131ae13146abeef947e788dd1180db.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来源于 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Apple still trades above where it did from a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio perspective for most of 2021 through the beginning of 2024. Even its forward P/E ratio isn't attractive, as Apple's growth isn't expected to be strong this year or next. Wall Street analysts only project 4.2% revenue growth in fiscal year 2025 and 7.2% in fiscal year 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>从过去的市盈率（P/E）角度来看，苹果的交易价格仍高于 2021 年大部分时间到 2024 年初的水平。即使是其未来市盈率也并不吸引人，因为预计苹果今年和明年的增长不会强劲。华尔街分析师仅预测 2025 财年的收入增长为 4.2%，2026 财年的收入增长为 7.2%。</p>
</div><p>A large chunk of the &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; cohort has much better growth prospects and trades for a lower valuation than Apple does. As a result, I think investors should take a look at those stocks rather than waste time with Apple. The only thing propping up its valuation is its brand, which won't mean a whole lot if the consumer can't afford a tariff-impacted iPhone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大奇迹” 中的一大部分公司具有更好的增长前景，并且交易估值低于苹果。因此，我认为投资者应该关注那些股票，而不是浪费时间在苹果身上。支撑其估值的唯一因素是其品牌，但如果消费者无法承担受关税影响的 iPhone，这并不会意味着太多。</p>
</div>

Apple Stock Is Down 23% From Its All-Time High. Here's Why I'm Still Not Buying Shares.

- 苹果公司在本月市场下跌中股价下滑约 23%。
- iPhone 销售停滞，未能推动公司收入增长，面临关税压力。
- 尽管股价下跌，苹果股票仍然高估，投资者应关注其他成长性更好的股票。

苹果股票已经从其历史最高点下跌了 23%。这就是我仍然不购买其股票的原因